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The Swamp

  • #13,361
  • Dec 20, 2017 7:46am Dec 20, 2017 7:46am
With roughly 2 more weeks left before end of year.... SPOT EURUSD driven higher as FWDs traders are driving up the 2Week Euro fwds, EURUSD is merely catching up to the forward curve.... as to why the FWD traders are pricing such a premium to the EURO on year end? perhaps 2018 is the year EURO rallies and DXY crashing....

I dare say that rate hikes from the US are gona be less effective in keeping USD support as we start to approach that magical mark of 2%, not to mention the 10y 2y yield curve flattening is gona signal that the FED wont have much space above 2% to hike further.... we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the rate hike cycle here... and 2018 sure starts to look like an inflexion point not only in Mon Policy/Money Markets, but also to Treasuries which will definitely have a spillover effect into Equities too...

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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,362
  • Dec 20, 2017 7:47am Dec 20, 2017 7:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} remember.. 1839 is dangerous.. placing buys 1789/1717 in case i am wrong about a bullish b/o..
got that!
I got another mp R at 1926(1886-1965), dont know if it count or not
  • #13,363
  • Dec 20, 2017 7:48am Dec 20, 2017 7:48am
Quoting Venomousssss
trying one more short here at 1899, stop above 1912
1899 this one may be a good one today .. since adr already 72..,
  • #13,364
  • Dec 20, 2017 7:50am Dec 20, 2017 7:50am
nice work longs!
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #13,365
  • Dec 20, 2017 7:52am Dec 20, 2017 7:52am
well that's it for me kids....

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, PTL....


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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #13,366
  • Edited 8:14am Dec 20, 2017 8:00am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting fxtyrant
With roughly 2 more weeks left before end of year.... SPOT EURUSD driven higher as FWDs traders are driving up the 2Week Euro fwds, EURUSD is merely catching up to the forward curve.... as to why the FWD traders are pricing such a premium to the EURO on year end? perhaps 2018 is the year EURO rallies and DXY crashing.... I dare say that rate hikes from the US are gona be less effective in keeping USD support as we start to approach that magical mark of 2%, not to mention the 10y 2y yield curve flattening is gona signal that the FED wont have much...
I have some disagreement on dollar crash in 2018, 2017 is already a bad year for dollar, as contrarian traders know, the positions that feel the worst often end up working out the best.
Another, its Fed Chair Jerome Powell .. no more Janet Yellen.. the two dissenters, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will go back to the proverbial bench ( not voters in 2018), two Fed Presidents were hawkish tendencies in the past, Loretta Mester (Cleveland) and John Williams (San Francisco) will make their way...so I think 2018 will be a good year for dollars.. .
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  • #13,367
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:01am Dec 20, 2017 8:01am
Quoting swing 123
Big number at 1890. Careful bulls.
Bears should reload here. Gl
  • #13,368
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:19am Dec 20, 2017 8:19am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 1899 this one may be a good one today .. since adr already 72..,
close at 77, got my money back plus a few pips. long with a stop below 1874 for a 1890 scalp maybe
  • #13,369
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:19am Dec 20, 2017 8:19am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I have some disagreement on dollar crash in 2018, 2017 is already a bad year for dollar, as contrarian traders know, the positions that feel the worst often end up working out the best. Another, its Fed Chair Jerome Powell .. no more Janet Yellen.. the two dissenters, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will go back to the proverbial bench, two Fed Presidents were hawkish tendencies in the past, Loretta Mester (Cleveland) and John Williams (San Francisco) will make their way...so I think 2018...
well look at it this way..... if financial crisis hits in 2018, dollar will get the fast appreciation on an exodus flood for safe haven. but with markets collapsing, pretty confident the fed will jump in for new rounds of QE and low interest rates to keep things in check and thats will cause USD to fall.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,370
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:22am Dec 20, 2017 8:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} meta should have a tool for that... i take it u did it with triangles..
yes, 2 triangles.
First i used the fibonacci expansion tool.
  • #13,371
  • Edited 8:36am Dec 20, 2017 8:26am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} well look at it this way..... if financial crisis hits in 2018, dollar will get the fast appreciation on an exodus flood for safe haven. but with markets collapsing, pretty confident the fed will jump in for new rounds of QE and low interest rates to keep things in check and thats will cause USD to fall.
market needs to crash some for its good.......first time when they jumped in.. QE1 started in Dec 2008 while Dow hit 6547 the lowest in 2009..... Dow are now almost 25K..I have no worries of market crush at all....far away to think about it..
  • #13,372
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:40am Dec 20, 2017 8:40am
1878 close is higher on day.. maybe some 1855 retrace, but odds are it will retest 1.190x or more in the next 24 hours. 61 pips from 1939. week and day range 1913 and 1901.. day spent already at 1901...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,373
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:45am Dec 20, 2017 8:45am
Quoting gatorinla
1878 close is higher on day.. maybe some 1855 retrace, but odds are it will retest 1.190x or more in the next 24 hours. 61 pips from 1939. week and day range 1913 and 1901.. day spent already at 1901...
usdx close support and eu 1939 will probably be hit (if eu rises) at/near the same time.. these are eu R and usdx needed to break and close above or below your preference. eu wise q month week day have higher closes. many call that a trend.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,374
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:48am Dec 20, 2017 8:48am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} market needs to crash some for its good.......first time when they jumped in.. QE1 started in Dec 2008 while Dow hit 6547 the lowest in 2009..... Dow are now almost 25K..I have no worries of market crush at all....far away to think about it..
This chart is what i look at as a dooms day indicator... the last 2 financial crisis can be in some way predicted by what we call a convergence of treasury yields, or flattening of the yield curve to a point where we get a backwardation...

Usually for treasury, the longer dated treasury bonds are supposed to have higher yield... but there are certain occasion where the short term bond yields overtakes the longer term ones. that usually happens when institution are dumping the shorter term bonds in favour for longer term ones... the dumping of short term bonds drives yields up, asset managers usually do that if they expect market correction...

so a chart here i have shows exacly that....

Orange is the 10Y Treasury Yield,
Purple is the 2Y Treasury Yield.

Green is the spread between 10 year and 2 year.

Blue is the S&P500....

Notice that whenever the Green line gets below the 0 line, it usually signals a correction in the S&P500 with uncanny accuracy... even if you started selling early in 2008 at the exact time the green line hits 0, the SPX still would've rallied against you for another 10% then drop 50% to leave the bears who started selling when it gets below 0 as a winner overall... 2008 took 3 years to play out thought...

2000 was much more efficient of a market correction....

Also notice how the 10Year vs 2 Year spread how it always peaks around 2-2.5%.... does this sound familiar to the FED's Rate hike targets for the current rate hike cycle??? hellooo??
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,375
  • Edited 9:01am Dec 20, 2017 8:50am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} market needs to crash some for its good.......first time when they jumped in.. QE1 started in Dec 2008 while Dow hit 6547 the lowest in 2009..... Dow are now almost 25K..I have no worries of market crush at all....far away to think about it..
after tax cuts the last 30 years, had 2 bank crashes .. S/L late eighties and 2008. interest rates have been manipulated in a non free market since vulkor started in the eighties. the current system is government welfare economics. It has all assets inflated. people today couldn't make it in the real world. in the real world, interest rates would be over 10% like it was before the fed raped the savers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,376
  • Dec 20, 2017 8:51am Dec 20, 2017 8:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} usdx close support and eu 1939 will probably be hit (if eu rises) at/near the same time.. these are eu R and usdx needed to break and close above or below your preference. eu wise q month week day have higher closes. many call that a trend. {image}
93.06 is that your last month usdx close? or something else..
  • #13,377
  • Edited 9:23am Dec 20, 2017 8:56am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} This chart is what i look at as a dooms day indicator... the last 2 financial crisis can be in some way predicted by what we call a convergence of treasury yields, or flattening of the yield curve to a point where we get a backwardation... Usually for treasury, the longer dated treasury bonds are supposed to have higher yield... but there are certain occasion where the short term bond yields overtakes the longer term ones. that usually happens when institution are dumping the shorter term bonds in favour for longer term ones... the dumping...
I am not that deep in bond yields as you.. you maybe right.. I do like your points..we have to wait to see...I think all the change in FOMC voters will benefit dollars.. and market is high enough can come down some for the healthy its own..
  • #13,378
  • Dec 20, 2017 9:00am Dec 20, 2017 9:00am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 93.06 is that your last month usdx close? or something else..
q3 93.06 .. 92.97 nov
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,379
  • Dec 20, 2017 9:29am Dec 20, 2017 9:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the pong for 1717 is still 1904. the pong for 1862 is 1764,, ping/pong. the L close at 1765..
1901 good enough..

the one for 1.1552 at 1.2065.. hopfully it's next, after little a retrace. 3/4 at 1873
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,380
  • Dec 20, 2017 9:36am Dec 20, 2017 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1901 good enough.. the one for 1.1552 at 1.2065.. hopfully it's next, after little a retrace. 3/4 at 1873
as I said before . you are just magic... wish i was in the ride .. anyway..its ok.. I am going out to do shopping, feeling holidays spirits..talk to you later..
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