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  • #13,221
  • Edited 11:51am Dec 16, 2017 11:39am | Edited 11:51am
Here is the latest COT report from the institutions, showing their positions
On 12/12/2017 COT report, I see the institutions added longs 627,from 205K to 206K, and aggresively closed shorts 20,156,
from 112K to 92K
This comes from the day before the FOMC meeting
as the week price rallies upwards to high 1876 then backdown to low 1717 at the close of the report.
69% long exposure vs short exposure 31%, which 4% increased in longs and 4% decreased in shorts from previous week
Net positions( long) increased from previous week 93k to 113k
Gross long positions and net long positions are the largest for this year by my tracking . And the largest net long position in a decade by some research

My thought: we won't see institutions unwind their longs unless dollars index can close above 95 at weekly close. Currently 93.93.
Euro bulls could struggle to push the currency higher given the already-lopsided positioning by institutions in Euro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT 12122017.png Size: 31 KB
  • #13,222
  • Dec 16, 2017 4:56pm Dec 16, 2017 4:56pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} nice chart. 1690 looks like an infliction point. lets see what we get. PS: here's extended version of your chart. {image}
1706 is an important level in mofu trading.
confluence with 1710 is 61.8 retrace and the wave1=wave5 thing.
3 reasons why 1706 still looks good to me.
  • #13,223
  • Dec 17, 2017 12:55am Dec 17, 2017 12:55am
Quoting Boulder
Here is the latest COT report from the institutions, showing their positions On 12/12/2017 COT report, I see the institutions added longs 627,from 205K to 206K, and aggresively closed shorts 20,156, from 112K to 92K This comes from the day before the FOMC meeting as the week price rallies upwards to high 1876 then backdown to low 1717 at the close of the report. 69% long exposure vs short exposure 31%, which 4% increased in longs and 4% decreased in shorts from previous week Net positions( long) increased from previous week 93k to 113k Gross long...
Is it really as easy as keeping an eye on the COT to know the direction??

besides COT publishes every wednesday/thursday fir the week prior sooo
doesnt really have much value other than knowing the positioning.... in my experience.... commercial guys can hold onto losing position for a long time....

Use COT maybe for weekly charts....

otherwise im gona stick to price action

but then again always open to learn and hear ur perspectives on using the COT report
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,224
  • Edited 3:24pm Dec 17, 2017 10:53am | Edited 3:24pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Is it really as easy as keeping an eye on the COT to know the direction?? besides COT publishes every wednesday/thursday fir the week prior sooo doesnt really have much value other than knowing the positioning.... in my experience.... commercial guys can hold onto losing position for a long time.... Use COT maybe for weekly charts.... otherwise im gona stick to price action but then again always open to learn and hear ur perspectives on using the COT report
COT report gives us the future outlook for the currency based on institution positions, since they are the ones move the market. I can't explain well, you can do research and find the info over the web

It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday.

The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the institutions have been doing and what their plans might be. its more for long term sentiment not short term trading.

Also, , I only pay attention to non commercial positioning in the report, who are the money managers, banks, and hedge funds. I don't use commercial info .

here attached Euro net positions chart by DB, you can see current week is the largest net long position in a decade ,
Attached Image
  • #13,225
  • Edited 4:52pm Dec 17, 2017 3:48pm | Edited 4:52pm
USD On 12/17/2017 at 5pm est. BLDR MTF system update :
H1, Uptrend, Trend stop at H1 close93.44, Running Period: 29 hours
H4, downtrend, Trend stop at H4 close 94.12, Running Period: 12 x H4
Daily, downtrend, Trend stop at day close 94.25, Running Period: 17 days
Weekly, downtrend, Trend stop at week close 95.02, Running Period: 33 weeks

( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)
  • #13,226
  • Dec 17, 2017 3:59pm Dec 17, 2017 3:59pm
Euro On 12/17/2017 at 5pm est.. BLDR MTF system update :
H1, downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1806, Running Period: 6 hours
H4, Uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1728, Running Period: 12 x H4
Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1707, Running Period: 17 days

( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)
  • #13,227
  • Edited Dec 18, 2017 5:32am Dec 17, 2017 5:17pm | Edited Dec 18, 2017 5:32am
Pending SHORT
S/O
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 3 KB
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #13,228
  • Dec 17, 2017 6:13pm Dec 17, 2017 6:13pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending SHORT {image}
Similar plan with a stop @1.1783.
If it fails daily mid R1 & R2 - 1.1813.
Weekly I see a path to 1.1620s. Hope we have the same weekly plan man.
  • #13,229
  • Dec 17, 2017 7:22pm Dec 17, 2017 7:22pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} Similar plan with a stop @1.1783. If it fails daily mid R1 & R2 - 1.1813. Weekly I see a path to 1.1620s. Hope we have the same weekly plan man.
Good call..... Imo SL shd be 10pips higher. If everyone can post trade calls like you then we can easily tell a good trader from a bullshitter one. Respect and hope you keep up this good job.

Cheers
GS
  • #13,230
  • Dec 17, 2017 7:52pm Dec 17, 2017 7:52pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Good call..... Imo SL shd be 10pips higher. If everyone can post trade calls like you then we can easily tell a good trader from a bullshitter one. Respect and hope you keep up this good job. Cheers GS

Cheers brother..

I don't take trade calls without a stop serious. Of course apart from a few traders I have got to know over the years such as I'll be back. I know for a fact that he very rarely has a stop more than 10 pips if that at all - more like 4-5 pips as far as I have seen.
  • #13,231
  • Dec 18, 2017 1:29am Dec 18, 2017 1:29am
market trades mostly lower it seems, don't see's no decent R's tho, some support at 1.1730 looks like, feels like a don't do anything day for EU...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #13,232
  • Dec 18, 2017 3:08am Dec 18, 2017 3:08am
I do spot some support in USDCHF, near 9870 that might be worthy of some cheese laying...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #13,233
  • Dec 18, 2017 4:37am Dec 18, 2017 4:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} core cpi missed target.. its was weaker making 1764 easier. from here bulls dont want 1734 reached. i can't say it would close L below 1726. i doubt that cpi number will detour feds plan yet.. so if this draws down .. it may be best to be mindful of getting below 1735 probably isn't good for bulls st. {image}
still above 1734.. Q3 closed higher than previous, month closed higher, week closed higher, day closed lower.
Q3 # 1808.9/11 month 1911. week just above 1769.. day just keeping above 1769... b/o # for day, week, month, quarter, 1939. it should be some R until. year wise with less than 2 weeks to go, pa is above 2016..

rate raise level held, still above 1734.. test one held.
day closed lower , but will be in sink L closing 1770+. more indicative if above 1811 q3 R
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,234
  • Dec 18, 2017 4:51am Dec 18, 2017 4:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} day has eu having a good chance to reach lower (1755) .. week has a good chance of reaching 1809 again.. adr already at 100 today.. month has it reaching for 1939 likely still
a L day close 1770 close should test 1808.9/11,,

the usd has a like read. the weeks are lower and the day higher. . it too has a month below its atm pa.. the week closed lower than previous week 1986.. but it like eu 1911 is on the opposite side of what the closes indicate. 92.97 is its month.. year wise it would be extremely hard with 12 days for usd to turn a bullish close on year.. or a bearish close on a eu year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,235
  • Dec 18, 2017 5:07am Dec 18, 2017 5:07am
st generic 1799 baby bear norm.. scalp wise (1799/1811) but dont count on a LL

it would probably make a LL below 1734 and come back once more to 1799 if it was to turn bearish. the closes to me are bullish excluding the day atm. so i dont lean toward short. st 1799 may make it appear to slip some.. but in may be because 1799 is a st norm/ and R at 1809/11..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,236
  • Edited 5:43am Dec 18, 2017 5:29am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting gatorinla
st generic 1799 baby bear norm.. scalp wise (1799/1811) but dont count on a LL it would probably make a LL below 1734 and come back once more to 1799 if it was to turn bearish. the closes to me are bullish excluding the day atm. so i dont lean toward short. st 1799 may make it appear to slip some.. but in may be because 1799 is a st norm/ and R at 1809/11..
1813 is wanted by bears for 1665...
which seems reasonable to me.
if it gets to 1813 i will lower my 1706 entry by 40 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 15 KB
  • #13,237
  • Dec 18, 2017 5:56am Dec 18, 2017 5:56am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} 1813 is wanted by bears for 1665... which seems reasonable to me. if it gets to 1813 i will lower my 1706 entry by 40 pips {image}
maybe.. the closes to me, dont say bear.. using a month range, it may be at 21xx b4 2018.

subject to change.. rates were increased and pa rose. pa tested the rate raise level pa and bounced. Q3 month week closed higher.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,238
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:13am Dec 18, 2017 6:13am
after fed raise. the week managed a higher close. not typically what is expected. it's not indicative of bearish. (yet) .. crazy year end crap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 14 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,239
  • Dec 18, 2017 7:09am Dec 18, 2017 7:09am
cadjpy. i like these.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYWeekly.png Size: 29 KB
  • #13,240
  • Dec 18, 2017 7:18am Dec 18, 2017 7:18am
USD On 12/18/2017 at 8am est. BLDR MTF system update :
H1, downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 94.04, Running Period: 2 hours
H4, downtrend, Trend stop at H4 close 94.07, Running Period: 16 x H4
Daily, downtrend, Trend stop at day close 94.22, Running Period: 18 days
Weekly, downtrend, Trend stop at week close 95.02, Running Period: 33 weeks

( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)
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