Plan the Trade

When thrust bar broke point 2 and closed I dropped order for pullback

great 2b break pb trade shame it was too late:

notice how much you make if just follow candles down

Looks like almost 100 ticks

I was not able to trade today. Just looking over the day and seeing what you guys did. Harold, I once again thank you for posting your charts and trades. The short trade you took this AM was brilliant. I'm certain that if I was trading it live I would not have seen it. But it makes perfect sense to me looking at it now. The move down was very strong. Look at the bars there is almost no overlap of them at all. The move up not as strong, much more overlap in the bars. Then before price can break the prior high it weakens considerably and forms the small 123. It makes sense that there would be more down to come. A very nice trade that is very easy to over look. Thank you again for sharing.

Your welcome finding direction is just looking for HHHL and we don't get a Howell that's the signal for potential reverse of trend

I'm keeping the champagne on ice for a minute... Now at 9 losing trades in a row on the Dax since yesterday morning. A mixture of size losses as i look to reduce risk early, as per the norm.

I've been suffering with insomnia this last week. I can't switch off from everything, so despite feeling like a zombie all day, i then still lay awake, counting the hours through the night.
It is hardly an ideal position to be in, when you need to be fresh and alert.

I put my losses down to that fact yesterday - fatigue.

I was taking a bad trade and then watching a good one. The same old problem as always. I needed to be trading them all.
To make matters worse, I had doubled my position size as well. I was well aware of over-confidence etc, but it is more than that...

What was working brilliantly last week and earlier this week, has completely changed and yet i have taken too long to adapt to it. Turning points that were reacting nicely before, are suddenly, pushing on beyond. It's as if you need to be alert to it and have a different strategy to play it for this stage.

I've seen this many times before, just the same as with the Nas. I seem to be doing really well, ready to go 'live' and then i end up taking a long run of losing trades.

Again, if i had traded everything that i saw, i would still be taking more points than losing, but i'm still hesitating at the first time of thinking and then taking the wrong one thereafter. It's amazing how the market entices you into this thought and decision making process, (well, for me, at least).

Everything looks so simple in hindsight, but as we all know, it's how you react at the time, is what matters. Everyone makes a great hindsight trader!

I am sure that it is a different market phase, as opposed to my fatigue... well... maybe a combination of both.

If i had traded the clear 2b breaks (very slight LL's or HH's over last sig point), followed by reversal signals (Engulfing candles, 123, triggers and pullbacks etc) i would have cleaned up.

I feel pretty deflated right now (again), but in all honesty, it's just another lesson picked up along the way. More experience gained. I did recognise that it was trending differently early yesterday. Dangerously. Told myself, maybe better to sit it out, but no.... i find myself here going around in circles again...

"Again, if i had traded everything that i saw, i would still be taking more points than losing, but i'm still hesitating at the first time of thinking and then taking the wrong one thereafter. It's amazing how the market entices you into this thought and decision making process, (well, for me, at least)."

For everyone. Same battle everyday.

It's like a video game where this is the highest level, the final dragon.

But in this game, you don't get to beat the dragon..... you fight that dragon every day, every trade.

has dax switched to mar18 contract cg?

Absolutely. It's what makes Harold's results so outstanding. A week ago, i was buzzing. I knew the feeling - overconfidence, but really... there was only one way i was heading... and now... over-reaction the opposite direction. It feels like i can't see the forest for the trees right now!

Hi Ras,

Well, on my platform (SB) it is DFT's (daily funded trades), so i am not trading Futures, but in the background, i wonder if that has an effect on the way PA prints, whilst contracts roll over? not sure...

You know... maybe it is fatigue. I look at it now and i honestly do not know why i sat and watched the winners. As i said, it's easy in hindsight, but basically, i stopped even following the plan, (which is what this is all about in the first place).

I guess i'm not quite there yet. Trading smaller positions was supposed to see me maintain the fluidity needed, but i still can not conquer it (well, not yet, not completely, anyway).

I suppose doubling my position size after a week, was a little too early!

This chart almost looks comical now i look at it;



There is some EW work there, which i can not keep labelling and listing, but basically, what is in the chart is mostly as i was reading it.

There may have been more, but i've listed what i remember looking at as it printed. I took a loser first off and it completely threw me out of synch.

That same old formula where you need to watch a couple of winners, before the confidence comes back only to take a loser again. Rinse/repeat... Hey no-one said this was going to be easy!

And yet, the answer is so clear to see.... even in today's fuck up of a session. If i had traded everything that i recognised, i would have had a greats session.

Ok ok, i know, i know. It's weekend nearly. Let's regroup and go again next week. Back to original trade size until i regain my fluidity.

This is sooooooooo frustrating! Trade everything that you see, cos no-one can ever get 100% success rates. Just so long as the reward is greater in multiples than the risk and the success rate is at least 50/50.

There might be another factor to consider. All year i have been getting used to trading, starting the session either at 16:30 (here), or even later, when i was concentrating on the afternoon session, so it was 19:00 onwards.

Now, suddenly, i am getting up, (as i stated before, currently, as a zombie) and trying to trade first thing and i don't feel like i am really 'with it', so to speak. I think getting used to a particular time of day to trade and inducing mental clarity for that time is important.

I know Harold would probably dismiss all of these things and just say, 'trade it'! but something keeps on setting me back.

It's funny how many things need to be over-come before you get to H's stage.

So, a week of non stop success breeds insomnia through excitement, which then leads to fatigue and tiredness, stress levels through the roof, causing two bad sessions and back to square one!) Brilliant!

*doffs cap to market*

CG now you can see why I put MP levels on chart and look to take setups around these levels

Yeh, i know. It's not as if i don't see the right trades. The margins between success and failure have never been tighter, for me. I'm sure it's lack of sleep.



Tell me, cos i reckon i'm about 2 years behind you. Do you recognise the problems that i write about? Or was it always easier for you?

I over-react to both extremes and i know it. It is true of life. True to my general character. I generally assume the worst, maybe during a conversation, when the truth was never meant that way...

A little time away from the screens and suddenly i see everything more clearly again.

It's as if, i need to get off to a flyer. If i take a good trade first, i then go on to have a great trading session, whereas, the converse is true. If i can rectify that, i will be there for sure)

here's the mp on a 133 chart for dax(mar18 strike) .. notice the signals around mp levels:

cg you marked a 123 in wrong place you are looking in the forest but not the trees where I marked 123 is it had a thrust from that 3 point and looked what happened after that you are in the trend and you get a few more pullbacks

Started very fast.....then nothing.

Don't beat yourself up over it. Keep at it, keep analyzing and above all, keep up the real time trading ( even if on demo or for small stakes). You will get there and you have some decent folk on this thread to guide you.