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The Swamp

  • #13,161
  • Dec 15, 2017 2:46am Dec 15, 2017 2:46am
Quoting PayTheLimit
very hungover here...
I am too....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,162
  • Dec 15, 2017 3:46am Dec 15, 2017 3:46am
its was unavoidable....have a good weekend people...good luck, PTL
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #13,163
  • Dec 15, 2017 4:16am Dec 15, 2017 4:16am
The day is positive so far, so selling right now is a little bit risky I think.
I am not in atm, waiting for a good point to sell if there is one I like.
  • #13,164
  • Dec 15, 2017 5:04am Dec 15, 2017 5:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the pong for 1717 is still 1904. the pong for 1862 is 1764,, ping/pong. the L close at 1765..
still early.. and testing 1809/11. still above 1765. but below 1811.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,165
  • Dec 15, 2017 5:06am Dec 15, 2017 5:06am
Quoting gatorinla
L day closed higher.. week ends tomorrow.. 1811+ bullish, even above 1756 may not be bearish tomorow close wise. 1755 has some support now.. unless something crazy happens.. the year will close higher (crazy like a 1200 pip drop). the Lday closing above 1755 indicative of 1808.9/11 to be tested in the next 24h,,
testing now..
i want to add usdx 93.10. it would be stronger for eu bears to have usdx above 93.10/ and eu below 1809.. atm that's happening. that could change. the yest day close was lower for usdx. and the day close for eu was higher. the week ends today. with 2 weeks left on the year these levels atm would not be usd positive. usdx bulls would have to get very aggressive. the closes are not doing that yet.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,166
  • Dec 15, 2017 6:18am Dec 15, 2017 6:18am
large option expires today , watch out 2.9 billion-euro option struck at 1800, more than 500m Euro struck every quarter cent through 1875

EUR/USD: 1.1700 (EUR 2.6bn), 1.1750 (764m), 1.1775 (250m), 1.1800 (2.9bn), 1.1825-30 (911m), 1.1850 (791m), 1.1875 (592m), 1.1900-10 (942m)
  • #13,167
  • Dec 15, 2017 6:19am Dec 15, 2017 6:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still early.. and testing 1809/11. still above 1765. but below 1811.
amazing.. I watched price moved exactly as you said.....
  • #13,168
  • Dec 15, 2017 6:27am Dec 15, 2017 6:27am
Quoting Boulder
large option expires today , watch out 2.9 billion-euro option struck at 1800 EUR/USD: 1.1700 (EUR 2.6bn), 1.1750 (764m), 1.1775 (250m), 1.1800 (2.9bn), 1.1825-30 (911m), 1.1850 (791m), 1.1875 (592m), 1.1900-10 (942m)
do u have the usdx in your options?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,169
  • Edited 6:54am Dec 15, 2017 6:30am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} testing now.. i want to add usdx 93.10. it would be stronger for eu bears to have usdx above 93.10/ and eu below 1809.. atm that's happening. that could change. the yest day close was lower for usdx. and the day close for eu was higher. the week ends today. with 2 weeks left on the year these levels atm would not be usd positive. usdx bulls would have to get very aggressive. the closes are not doing that yet.
Hi Gator,
I am back!
Done all my final exams and free now until next year !

Most of my chart tf are giving me the signal that there will spike up and will break 1811 either today or next Monday! 1795 atm
So I am longing against 1765, first target around 1885 and next one is 20/21+
Will change my mind only if it breaks 1759, lets see !!!
Just need 4h closes above 1798+

Quoting Angelina
{quote} Triggered ! {quote} If it closes below 1850. I have another pending at 1823 My bias is still long, keep buying deep! I will be off from this thread(FF) for while guys. I need a rest a bit! I will be back as soon as I can! Good luck to you, Gator and all traders here ! Edited: out right here at 1869 (+11 pips), keep pending order at 1823/1807(canceled these orders). It could drop to 1759. Pending at 1759 {image}
This changed was the right one huh

Good luck everyone !
Hope that it will move like the chart below !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU chart.png Size: 15 KB
  • #13,170
  • Dec 15, 2017 6:44am Dec 15, 2017 6:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} do u have the usdx in your options?
not know about that.. I don't have access to DTCC..I get my info from forexlive.. here are others if you are interested..

 

  1. USD/JPY: 111.60-70 (USD 324m), 112.00 (1.2bn), 112.25-30 (2.0bn), 112.50 (1.4bn), 112.75 (510m), 113.00 (790m), 113.20-30 (594m), 113.40-50 (1.0bn)
  2. GBP/USD: 1.3200-10 (GBP 456m), 1.3300 (929m), 1.3400 (410m), 1.3450-52 (399m), 1.3485-00 (201m)
  3. USD/CAD: 1.2730 (USD 186m), 1.2750 (345m), 1.2775-80 (605m), 1.2850 (759m), 1.2900 (866m)
  4. AUD/USD: 0.7570-80 (AUD 786m), 0.7700 (342m), 0.7740-50 (441m), 0.7800 (1.1bn)
  5. NZD/USD: 0.6900 (NZD 335m), 0.7050 (101m), 0.7100 (211m), 0.7300 (151m)
  6. EUR/GBP: 0.8850 (EUR 662m), 0.8900 (596m), 0.9000 (1.3bn), 0.9050 (1.5bn)

  • #13,171
  • Dec 15, 2017 6:56am Dec 15, 2017 6:56am
Just noticed the H1 trend was changed 2 hours ago after it closed above 1801

Euro On 12/15/2017 for 8am est. BLDR MTF system update :
H1, Uptrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1767, Running Period: 2 hours
H4, Uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1728, Running Period: 10 x H4
Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1707, Running Period: 17 days
( Note: Those stops are running stops and will change with hour close)
  • #13,172
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:06am Dec 15, 2017 7:06am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} amazing.. I watched price moved exactly as you said.....
near 1800 its 1200 + pips above last year's 2016 (1.05xx) close. the highest wick for 2015 at 1712.. looks like the year close could be a bullish b/o. if you take the 12 month candles and use them as a year one. a close above a close tends to be bullish, a close above the wicks tends to be stronger. still 2 weeks to go, at current levels pa is above 2016 and 2015 wicks. this years high is near the 2014 close.

close wise:
Pa wise atm with 2 weeks to go is above 2016 close (still open) but well above 1.05xx
Q3 is still higher than Q2
dec.Lmonth closed above nov Lmonth

day closed above yest.

that 2015 wick high at 1712.. u can see why 1706 missed.




the fed are talking about 3 or 4 raises in 2018. at 1/4% a pop that's 1%. the pa doesn't seem to care. its still above the rate released level this week.
of course in 2 weeks at 100+ pips a day, this could change b4 Jan. but hell, the fed raising has the eu higher days later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 46 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,173
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:09am Dec 15, 2017 7:09am
1778 is wanted/needed correct?
  • #13,174
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:15am Dec 15, 2017 7:15am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} not know about that.. I don't have access to DTCC..I get my info from forexlive.. here are others if you are interested.. USD/JPY: 111.60-70 (USD 324m), 112.00 (1.2bn), 112.25-30 (2.0bn), 112.50 (1.4bn), 112.75 (510m), 113.00 (790m), 113.20-30 (594m), 113.40-50 (1.0bn) GBP/USD: 1.3200-10 (GBP 456m), 1.3300 (929m), 1.3400 (410m), 1.3450-52 (399m), 1.3485-00 (201m) USD/CAD: 1.2730 (USD 186m), 1.2750 (345m), 1.2775-80 (605m), 1.2850 (759m), 1.2900 (866m) AUD/USD: 0.7570-80 (AUD 786m), 0.7700 (342m), 0.7740-50 (441m), 0.7800 (1.1bn) NZD/USD:...
what time do they expire?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,175
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:25am Dec 15, 2017 7:25am
Quoting Angelina
{quote} Hi Gator, I am back! Done all my final exams and free now until next year ! Most of my chart tf are giving me the signal that there will spike up and will break 1811 either today or next Monday! 1795 atm So I am longing against 1765, first target around 1885 and next one is 20/21+ Will change my mind only if it breaks 1759, lets see !!! Just need 4h closes above 1798+ {quote} This changed was the right one huh Good luck everyone ! Hope that it will move like the chart below ! {image}
ditto on long... but if it starts to slip. i know it could do it hard, in a 1.05xx attempt. the closes to me,are not indicating drop atm.. usdx under 93.10 (atm 93.45) would help.. to get usdx below 93.10 is about 2 eu pips per 1 usdx pip. 45 pips atm on usdx and 90 ish pips on eu.. in that pong area at 1904..

it would be a noticeable move, probably not mild. more of a wtf.. it dont have to happen this week.. if it didnt that's ok.. London dont have to roll above 1811 today.. just being above 1765 is ok.. but with 3 hours to go... it could reach wtf like at any moment now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,176
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:37am Dec 15, 2017 7:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what time do they expire?
today's 10am NY cut
  • #13,177
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:38am Dec 15, 2017 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what time do they expire?

10:00 am NY time man.
  • #13,178
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:40am Dec 15, 2017 7:40am
Here are 5 year statistics from a COT data research group for Dec 8,2017
.. you will see Euro/USd (6E) is most crowded long by institutions by 99% , followed by Nikkei (NK) 92% , DJIA (YM) 87% , CAD (6C) 80% and Mexican Peso (6m) 72%..

Be mindful and be ready when they start to unwind..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 year percentile net spec position.png Size: 197 KB
  • #13,179
  • Dec 15, 2017 7:49am Dec 15, 2017 7:49am
shorted 1803 S/L @BE

Edit:
Closed @1793. Donīt trust it.
  • #13,180
  • Dec 15, 2017 8:12am Dec 15, 2017 8:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ditto on long... but if it starts to slip. i know it could do it hard, in a 1.05xx attempt. the closes to me,are not indicating drop atm.. usdx under 93.10 (atm 93.45) would help.. to get usdx below 93.10 is about 2 eu pips per 1 usdx pip. 45 pips atm on usdx and 90 ish pips on eu.. in that pong area at 1904.. it would be a noticeable move, probably not mild. more of a wtf.. it dont have to happen this week.. if it didnt that's ok.. London dont have to roll above 1811 today.. just being above 1765 is ok.. but with 3 hours to go... it could...
Agreed ! it does not have to be today but if it does, that would be great !
It needs 4h closes above 1797
Omg, it was 1795 and the last 3 mins pushed it up to 17995 (4h NY closes)
It could drop back to 1789(norm), but I am still holding my long unless it breaks 175ish !

1795 atm
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