Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
Diversified Trend Trading Approach
- #2,641
- Dec 11, 2017 7:10am Dec 11, 2017 7:10am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
- #2,642
- Dec 12, 2017 4:11am Dec 12, 2017 4:11am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Isn't it just lovely sumo?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,643
- Dec 12, 2017 4:15am Dec 12, 2017 4:15am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Natural hedge is happening on AUD NZD:
EDTT view:
Reverter view:
If price goes below MA200, then there is automatic exit?
EDTT view:
Reverter view:
If price goes below MA200, then there is automatic exit?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,645
- Dec 12, 2017 9:20am Dec 12, 2017 9:20am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,649
- Dec 14, 2017 4:20am Dec 14, 2017 4:20am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Automated trend following systems not doing well in 2017
http://www.wisdomtrading.com/novembe...end-following/
http://www.wisdomtrading.com/novembe...end-following/
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,650
- Dec 14, 2017 6:15am Dec 14, 2017 6:15am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Why trend following?
Some ideas from a book Fooled by Randomness:
1. The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous analysis) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and “cutting edge” research).
2. If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefitting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events.
3. Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing). A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.
4. We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy.
5. Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.
6. How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We have just animal's mind and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.
Some ideas from a book Fooled by Randomness:
1. The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous analysis) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and “cutting edge” research).
2. If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefitting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events.
3. Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing). A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.
4. We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy.
5. Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.
6. How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We have just animal's mind and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,651
- Edited 12:54pm Dec 14, 2017 12:21pm | Edited 12:54pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Lovely sumo again:
If Bank of Canada Poloz would weaken CAD, then it would be nice gain, but he strengthen CAD.
If Bank of Canada Poloz would weaken CAD, then it would be nice gain, but he strengthen CAD.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,654
- Dec 15, 2017 8:47pm Dec 15, 2017 8:47pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
Food for Thought
- The Winners and Losers of the Zero-Sum Game;
- Historical Events When Trend Following Wins Big: 500 Years of Financial History (A large resource of excellent articles);
- Mike Aponte: The Making of a Card Counter;
- James Simons (full length interview) - Numberphile;
- Top Industry Expert, Exclusive Interview with Ernest Chan;
- Why Probability in Quantum Mechanics is given by the Wave Function Squared; (for those who like to ponder and scratch their head)
- Corporate bonds and managed futures - A winning diversification combination;
- Put into Perspective - December 2017 - Skenderbeg;
- When a quant trader enters the world of sports betting;
- Intro to Portfolio Skewness;
- A psychologist reveals outstanding traits of the super rich;
- Too Big to Fail - LTCM ;
- The Uncertainty Principle in Markets;
- Delivering Negative Alpha
Enjoy
C
Why Trend Following Works
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