Timing is everything but time is worthless | Forex Factory

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Timing is everything but time is worthless

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 12, 2017 3:47pm Dec 12, 2017 3:47pm
Price exists outside of time, time is just a constraint or parameter we place on it. How do you step outside of time and view the market?

A couple years ago I was studying candlestick patterns and some of the traders were "combining" candle sticks to create a certain pattern. It hit me then that patterns really have no value as you could change the time frame, or the broker time and they'd disappear. A candle/bar is just a snapshot of price.

Even after a market closes prices are moving, maybe not on a visual chart, but prices are just human sentiment. We think about our trades, the values, risk etc. after a market closes. So the value/price is always in motion.

Time frames are used to "trap" price and give us a visual of price in those moments. But is viewing the market in such a way "trapping" our view of the market, or maybe misdirecting our focus?

So how do you strip that away? Is viewing a tick chart raw price… or the tape?

I think many/most traders with any significant time invested come to realize indicators have little to no value, as they're just based on price. So many revert to naked trading, just candlesticks, but is that really as naked as it gets? Or is that just one more step in the right direction?

After you removed your indicators, removed time frames and you're just left with price is that as "naked" as it gets? And most importantly does move your closer towards profitability or an edge or improved edge?

I'm sure others have had thoughts and pursued the same line of thinking so I'm interested in your thoughts and feedback. Did it lead to anywhere?
  • #2
  • Dec 12, 2017 4:31pm Dec 12, 2017 4:31pm
Price and patterns behave the same in all timeframes the only difference is the speed in which they form, from the tiniest timeframe you can find to the largest.

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  • #3
  • Dec 12, 2017 4:38pm Dec 12, 2017 4:38pm
Quoting venividivici
Price and patterns behave the same in all timeframes the only difference is the speed in which they form, from the tiniest timeframe you can find to the largest. {image}
could you prove it please instead of a plain statement ?
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #4
  • Dec 12, 2017 4:48pm Dec 12, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} could you prove it please instead of a plain statement ?
One is a monthly and the other is a 1 minute chart, but which one is which ?

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  • #5
  • Edited 5:13pm Dec 12, 2017 4:58pm | Edited 5:13pm
Quoting venividivici
Price and patterns behave the same in all timeframes the only difference is the speed in which they form, from the tiniest timeframe you can find to the largest. {image}
Absolutely true, you can compare time with cosine. Every timeframe works like a trigonometric function.

Time gives you the opportunity to measure the strength and weakness of buyer and seller. You can’t measure them without price AND time. The tick is the only truth which provides you price AND time. OHLC (Candlestick) provides you only price without time. OHLC is just a frame, you can compare it with super Mario. The level is OHLC and Mario is the tick. Nobody knows how Mario will finish the level, but he will (dead or alive hahaha)
  • #6
  • Dec 12, 2017 6:05pm Dec 12, 2017 6:05pm
Quoting Luther
Time is important as a trigger. Exchange rates are based on time prints. Setting the daily bank rate for commercial banks, and smaller incremental prints for active exchange throughout the day. The longer you observe the market the better you can see how this works. As far as time scale or tick count are concerned, it depends how you trade. A full time day trader can take advantage of inside swings that are irrelevant to longer term directional flow so watching lower tick counts is more advantageous. A part time trader who can't watch the screen...
I don’t disagree that time is important in general as far as financial markets go, news announcements, opening times etc. But more so how it relates to raw price.

As far as what type a trader you are and what timeframe or chart types best fit your trading style that’s a different discussion
  • #7
  • Dec 12, 2017 6:07pm Dec 12, 2017 6:07pm
Quoting venividivici
Price and patterns behave the same in all timeframes the only difference is the speed in which they form, from the tiniest timeframe you can find to the largest. {image}
You’re referring To the fractal nature of markets, which can also be applied to price. But fractals are seen all throughout creation. Different topic
  • #8
  • Edited 6:39pm Dec 12, 2017 6:11pm | Edited 6:39pm
Quoting MetBo
{quote} Absolutely true, you can compare time with cosine. Every timeframe works like a trigonometric function. Time gives you the opportunity to measure the strength and weakness of buyer and seller. You can’t measure them without price AND time. The tick is the only truth which provides you price AND time. OHLC (Candlestick) provides you only price without time. OHLC is just a frame, you can compare it with super Mario. The level is OHLC and Mario is the tick. Nobody knows how Mario will finish the level, but he will (dead or alive hahaha)
But you don’t need time to judge the strength of a move, or price. Look at the attached chart, I’ve blacked out the time, time is irrelevant to what is happening on that chart.

And I assume you mean the opposite of what you said above, tick provides only price not time whereas OHLC shows both.
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  • #9
  • Dec 12, 2017 6:45pm Dec 12, 2017 6:45pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} One is a monthly and the other is a 1 minute chart, but which one is which ? {image} {image}
there is no way to tell because the price is the same on all time frames.
it is all the same information just a matter of how compressed it is.
  • #10
  • Dec 12, 2017 6:50pm Dec 12, 2017 6:50pm
Quoting swTrue
How do you step outside of time and view the market?
If you really want to see the market from an outside view then you must understand the following:
time for real opportunities is little, most of the time you have to sit tight.
Timing is then just the result of that.
  • #11
  • Dec 12, 2017 7:01pm Dec 12, 2017 7:01pm
Use price based charts INSTEAD of a time based one.. that gives you ALL the clarity you are looking for, less inconsistency/random size "candles" etc etc bla bla bla..

you need to be CONSTANT in your aproach and that includes the way you are "processing/analizing" the price in the chart; once you can see this, you understand how stupid and meaningless its time based charts

after all you want the price to move in your favor, not the time
  • #12
  • Dec 13, 2017 4:23am Dec 13, 2017 4:23am
Quoting swTrue
{quote} But you don’t need time to judge the strength of a move, or price. Look at the attached chart, I’ve blacked out the time, time is irrelevant to what is happening on that chart. And I assume you mean the opposite of what you said above, tick provides only price not time whereas OHLC shows both. {image}
nope, I dont mean the opposite. Well have a look on the following pictures
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OHLC is a frame for ticks, because OHLC collects all ticks within a specific time range (frame).
Ticks are the only truth, they have information about price AND time.


To give you a better understanding, for each OHLC you can use trigonometric function to determine the targets of buyer and seller.
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  • #13
  • Dec 13, 2017 4:25am Dec 13, 2017 4:25am
Quoting venividivici
{quote} One is a monthly and the other is a 1 minute chart, but which one is which ? {image} {image}
upper one is monthly, lower is minute
  • #14
  • Dec 13, 2017 5:12am Dec 13, 2017 5:12am
Time can also be useful in this context: the gray histogram in the screenshot shows the relative probability of the daily high/low being formed at any given hour of the day (00-23) for the charted instrument. Combine with ADR, orderflow, volume, some PA, red news and you have a decent roadmap from which intraday swing points can occasionally be anticipated. I might share this indicator at some future point, but not yet.
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  • #15
  • Dec 13, 2017 6:30am Dec 13, 2017 6:30am
Quoting hanover
Time can also be useful in this context: the gray histogram in the screenshot shows the relative probability of the daily high/low being formed at any given hour of the day (00-23) for the charted instrument. Combine with ADR, orderflow, volume, some PA, red news and you have a decent roadmap from which intraday swing points can occasionally...
Take care of yourself Hanover, we need you
Imparo ancora
  • #16
  • Dec 13, 2017 8:38am Dec 13, 2017 8:38am
Quoting hanover
Time can also be useful in this context: the gray histogram in the screenshot shows the relative probability of the daily high/low being formed at any given hour of the day (00-23) for the charted instrument. Combine with ADR, orderflow, volume, some PA, red news and you have a decent roadmap from which intraday swing points can occasionally...
Amazing work of colors and Art
The arriving better than the arrival, the journey has just started
  • #17
  • Dec 13, 2017 10:01am Dec 13, 2017 10:01am
You could use charts which in theory don`t require any time at all, they aren`t based on time.
As a matter of fact you might even find that they offer much better picture. But as with everything there are advantages and disadvantages.

Tick Charts - Great for displaying patterns such as flags and etc, not as easy to get as others (there are ways to get them in mt4)
Renko - Great for catching those moves which usually end up looking like a huge spiked candle
Range - Kind of same as above
Point & Figure - Now those could amaze you if you actually study them and learn their origins

I used to jump back and forth between charts, but I`m back with time based charts at the moment.

To sum it all up use timeless charts when you want to see clearly the directions of the price, as less whipsawing ranges as possible, and a somewhat consistency.
The main thing is volatility, sometimes you might get 177 ticks in a minute candle, sometimes the number could be as low as 20 ticks in a minute candle.
Its all about how you chose to balance them out and why.
Timeless charts would most often show you a huge time based pinbar l in a V shape, which means that the upwards and downwards movements are recorded simultaneously and in order.

However time based charts are helpful in cases where you actually have reasons to use time, for example in forex you know that each d1 signifies a trading day, and you need precise info sumarized up in to the candle about the entire days trading activity.

The best suggestion I can give you is to just explore them :-)))
It will be an interesting adventure.

P.S. There is a technique called Candle Blending, which is basically visually transforming a bearish engulfing in to a hammer for example.
P.P.S. You aren`t forced to use candle sticks only, you might look in to ohlc bars
The truth is hidden from you
  • #18
  • Dec 13, 2017 11:00am Dec 13, 2017 11:00am
Quoting MaxenshteinD
You could use charts which in theory don`t require any time at all, they aren`t based on time. As a matter of fact you might even find that they offer much better picture. But as with everything there are advantages and disadvantages. Tick Charts - Great for displaying patterns such as flags and etc, not as easy to get as others (there are ways to get them in mt4) Renko - Great for catching those moves which usually end up looking like a huge spiked candle Range - Kind of same as above Point & Figure - Now those could amaze you if you actually study...
Hey max, I did use point n figure charts a lot but I never cared to search their history. Care to share please ?
  • #19
  • Dec 13, 2017 12:36pm Dec 13, 2017 12:36pm
I consider time when trading Momentum, Timed exits, News, Session's open/low/high as S/R zones.
No guts, no glory
  • #20
  • Dec 13, 2017 1:15pm Dec 13, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting swTrue
Price exists outside of time, time is just a constraint or parameter we place on it. How do you step outside of time and view the market?......After you removed your indicators, removed time frames and you're just left with price is that as "naked" as it gets? And most importantly does move your closer towards profitability or an edge or improved edge? I'm sure others have had thoughts and pursued the same line of thinking so I'm interested in your thoughts and feedback. Did it lead to anywhere?
Hi swTrue,
Excellent thread idea! On a purely technical basis, people have already thought of taking time out of price so you see things like tick charts and renko charts where price but not time are displayed.

I agree with you 100% that I often thought candle/bar chart patterns are completely arbitrary to time period chosen; something that appears on a 5 minute chart is often invisible on a daily one. Yet we trade off the patterns as if they have genuine value. It feels like self-delusion when you start looking at it in this sort of way. That said, I have traded off 5 minutes candle patterns profitably for several years now. I do wonder what is going on, exactly?

My take on this, for what it's worth, is that price patterns are just representations of human behaviour in the market. And human behaviour is essentially predictable to some degree at least because we are wired up to think and operate in consistent ways. Not necessarily logical or rational ways, but certainly consistent ways. What goes around, comes around. The same patterns essentially repeat over and over in a better than random way.

And it is this that gives patterns their edge. If you see a price formation pattern 100 times that leads to a certain outcome 70 times, you have a tradeable edge. It's never perfect and it is always subject to some degree of subjective interpretation, but it is there. I don't think it matters what time frame you look at, as long as you stick to that time frame and learn the patterns you see there. Incidentally, I do think the market is essentially fractal, I see similar patterns form with similar reliability on all manner of time frames.

Finally, as for indicators, I have little time, I do trade naked, just the candles. Pretty much all indicators are derivatives of price. If price is so fundamental, why not just study that and let go all the complexity that derives from using indicators? I can't see they add much to the party and my testing has yet to find a reliable one over the long haul and multiple markets. That said, if an indicator works for you, use it. Patterns work for me. We could both be truly delusional but I don't care as long as my methods generate a consistent living for me, I'm happy!
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