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Random vs Predictable

  • #21
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:11am Mar 13, 2015 12:11am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} The point is to define the nowhere land. Nowhere is always somewhere on a graph. This chart is better than any words: {image} This is basic of course, and it is not how i really trade, but i can say that every sell trade in nowhere land is a winner, is inside the trend. Here i dont trade support or resistance, i dont need a x% of fibo or a macd or any indicator to decide when or why to enter a trade... Here i just need a simple sma which distance is quite away from resitance to trade, which is precisely nowhere, and sell anywhere in nowhere...
Hi, I like your idea but I don't understand how to calculate when and where "Nowhere" is. Could you elaborate? I trade the Eur/Usd if you could point it out on that chart and explain the concept. Thanks!
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #22
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:59am Mar 13, 2015 9:59am
Quoting emanco
There is nothing random in the price action. There are patterns, trends and major moves. Of course there is always some noise here and there, but if you say the price is random then I'm afraid you'll have a very hard time in trading.

The market is a Random Walk with a Levy Flight. This is a Fact and has been statically proven over and over for years now.

Here is a small example that proves it is a levy flight and not 100% random like some claim(100% random market would never exist as no one, not one single person would be able to profit from price variations in it).

If you have 2 sequences that appear random, how can you tell which one is truly random? and which one is random with a levy flight?
Frequency Stability.

If it were truly random there would be whats known as frequency stability. This means all of the sequences price could possible make no matter what length they are will happen the exact same amount of times. Like this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is not the case as if you measure any forms of sequences with price over years of data you will notice that in different market conditions different sequences will occur more often. This is why some strategies work in trending markets & some work in trending, etc. What causes the market to do this is its levy flight. This is what any of the markets sequences will look like distributed because of the levy flight.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If the market were truly 100% random the stats I posted in this thread would all be 50/50 exactly. Notice they are not. This is because of the levy flight.

sis.
  • #23
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:01am Mar 14, 2015 10:01am
there is nothing as random every thing have a logic behind it we just don't know all variables and the logic behind them even in your pc what they call random memory it do have a logic behind it so market and life are predictable
and we can not know unless we keep studying to know it with all variables that we have a long journey very long
all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #24
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:42am Mar 7, 2017 7:42am
In short, it doesn't matter. It depends on the trader. If you believe the markets are random, trade like it's random. If you believe the markets are somewhat predictable, trade as if it is.
Both can be profitable - it all depends on the trader.

You can never prove one statement over the other.

The outcome justifies the means
  • #25
  • Mar 7, 2017 7:52am Mar 7, 2017 7:52am
Quoting Grabowski
In short, it doesn't matter. It depends on the trader. If you believe the markets are random, trade like it's random. If you believe the markets are somewhat predictable, trade as if it is. Both can be profitable - it all depends on the trader. You can never prove one statement over the other. The outcome justifies the means

this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

I wouldn't say the market is predictable as much as it is forecastable. Like the weather. Laws of large numbers such as market participants leads to easy to identify patterns of behavior. Maybe not always in terms of direction or magnitude, but at least in terms of timing. I'd rather people believe in random, though for obvious reasons.
  • #26
  • Mar 24, 2017 9:51am Mar 24, 2017 9:51am
Quoting dagoods
"Whoever said there was any such thing as randomness? -Randy Powell https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pvuTZ5u6Kg http://goodmath.scientopia.org/2012/...d-vortex-math/ that guy doesn't believe in anything of the sort. https://synocity.wordpress.com/2013/...alled-mimesis/ that guy apparently claims to have overcome the limits of time & space. Quantum physics says YOU the observer are the key to the manifested outcome. . . see for example, the double slit experiment. Math...
See my journal. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...94#post9705494

Space/Time ... Price/Time. Numbers are numbers. I've been a follower of Rodin going back to 2010? Number cycles. I"ve taken it further to find cycles within numbers themselves. And then doing the opposite of the double slit which is collapsing the wave to a particle. How about exploding the particle to see the probable waves that made up that particle? Think about that.
  • #27
  • Mar 24, 2017 10:14am Mar 24, 2017 10:14am
Quoting JR97
{quote} See my journal. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...94#post9705494 Space/Time ... Price/Time. Numbers are numbers. I've been a follower of Rodin going back to 2010? Number cycles. I"ve taken it further to find cycles within numbers themselves. And then doing the opposite of the double slit which is collapsing the wave to a particle. How about exploding the particle to see the probable waves that made up that particle? Think about that.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...73#post8397673

well, in theory it works perfectly..... according to rodin all numbers are co-ordinated...they are co-ordinates..... not sure how murrey math or other fractal market trading systems compare really..... it is fascinating, but am not sure it has any useful application to be honest
  • #28
  • Mar 27, 2017 12:57pm Mar 27, 2017 12:57pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...73#post8397673 well, in theory it works perfectly..... according to rodin all numbers are co-ordinated...they are co-ordinates..... not sure how murrey math or other fractal market trading systems compare really..... it is fascinating, but am not sure it has any useful application to be honest
It's in the relationships between the numbers. Not the numbers themselves. I'll just leave it at that.
  • #29
  • Mar 27, 2017 4:55pm Mar 27, 2017 4:55pm
Forex is like a snake, it can hurt you when you think it's not going to do anything! So the only way to succeed is be sharp and alert for every moment and make any decision with 100% certainty. It's easy to say but not to do.
  • #30
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:37am Mar 28, 2017 1:37am
The Market especially forex is randomly predictable and most of the time crazy.
  • #31
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:03am Mar 28, 2017 5:03am
Market moves in cycles and they repeat themselves periodically. So, it’s mostly predictable, which is proven by many successful traders who make steady profits.
  • #32
  • Mar 28, 2017 7:59pm Mar 28, 2017 7:59pm
The forex market (any market) is what you believe it is. If you believe it's a snake, it's a snake. If you believe Forex market is crazy, then it's crazy.
  • #33
  • Dec 7, 2017 3:44am Dec 7, 2017 3:44am
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} The market is a Random Walk with a Levy Flight. This is a Fact and has been statically proven over and over for years now. Here is a small example that proves it is a levy flight and not 100% random like some claim(100% random market would never exist as no one, not one single person would be able to profit from price variations in it). If you have 2 sequences that appear random, how can you tell which one is truly random? and which one is random with a levy flight? Frequency Stability. If it were truly random there would be whats known...
Hi Sis,
Could you please explain more about your second image ? I think it is an Efficient way to explain about the binary of 3 digits, but how many digits shall we take for the best result ? Does it has relationship to state (E) => (A) , and its combination (with its own percentage, ex: 70/30/40/60) ?
I am failed,but i found 1,000 ways that won't work ...
  • #34
  • Dec 7, 2017 4:44am Dec 7, 2017 4:44am
Quoting Grabowski
The forex market (any market) is what you believe it is. If you believe it's a snake, it's a snake. If you believe Forex market is crazy, then it's crazy.
I agree! It's like visualizing your fantasies in the projection of chart predictions. I have seen so many different prejudices and rules that traders come up with themselves. Everyone has the right to believe in what he wants. And this makes 95% of traders unsuccessful.
  • #35
  • Dec 7, 2017 6:18am Dec 7, 2017 6:18am
I think it's a problem of terminology. True the opposite of predictable is not random, it's unpredictable. So the markets are not random, however they are unpredictable.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #36
  • Dec 8, 2017 5:33am Dec 8, 2017 5:33am
Quoting Rennaissance
I think it's a problem of terminology. True the opposite of predictable is not random, it's unpredictable. So the markets are not random, however they are unpredictable.
Random is any value at a time.
Unpredictable is when:
I trade according to the trend, I have several deals in a row with a profit. I make a following forecast and suddenly ... suddenly unknown force decides to turn the market movement ....
The market is not random, but no one has yet been able to understand fully the principle of operation.
  • #37
  • Edited Dec 9, 2017 6:17pm Dec 8, 2017 9:29pm | Edited Dec 9, 2017 6:17pm
Quoting Mr.Rain
{quote} The market is not random, but no one has yet been able to understand fully the principle of operation.
Is it not random ? i just can see that market is random, but some how it is predictable said the professionals, not sure how many % is the portion of his/her predictable, and how they come to this conclusion.
It is nice to know that you can get profits several deals in a row Mr. Rain, great ! you said that you trade according to the trend, how can you actually define a trend ? is there a trend in a range market and how to catch it ?
For example: trader A uses indicator X to define a trend, trader B uses indicators Y to get his trend.
All of these tools are useful for them (although these are simple default indicators available in many platform), because the professionals know how to use it, even just using a candle stick, they can get profit.
TF is important in this case, buy which TF do you choose for trading ? i don't think that you use all tf for that, or i am wrong? as rennaissance said above, markets are not random, however they are unpredictable ... so if a professional trader can predict the market, it means may be he/she has a crystal ball ...
  • #38
  • Dec 8, 2017 11:10pm Dec 8, 2017 11:10pm
Forex is totally unpredictable but the professionals predict the maximum amount of outcomes and plan accordingly, there's no single predicament though.
  • #39
  • Last Post: Dec 11, 2017 4:03am Dec 11, 2017 4:03am
I would like to say that the forex is unpredictable, but if I say this, then I must agree that all my forecasts are a complete bullshit and trading - this is meaningless.
Point of view is a common opinion, passed through the prism of experience
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