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  • #41
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:31am Sep 25, 2006 9:31am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
And welcome to reality tv!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #42
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:34am Sep 25, 2006 9:34am
Quoting summitfx
Stradlling the news just isn't working for me anymore since I learned the technique form MoneyMaster. I like Merlin's "fade that shit" philosophy.
Whatever it takes ya

to makes da pips.....yeah.
  • #43
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:34am Sep 25, 2006 9:34am
History did repeat itself. You were on the money, BK. I'll start looking for your analysis for my fade strategy on all future reports. Thanks

Quoting BurgerKing
I only managed a +14 on the buy.

If history repeats itself, EURUSD/GBPUSD could go down again..

though it was bad, some could see it as "ummm, hey its not that bad"...

PS. I have a TTN (DEMO again), they released the news, and the move started a few seconds later. However, I hesitated to short GBPUSD because I noticed the enlarged spread at IBFX... Seeing that the spread could easily eaten the possible profit, I waited to fade the news instead.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #44
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:37am Sep 25, 2006 9:37am
I couldn't lose when I first picked up your strategy in June but lately I'm getting smoked and having chest pains lol

Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Whatever it takes ya

to makes da pips.....yeah.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #45
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:37am Sep 25, 2006 9:37am
Quoting summitfx
Are you really in the Phillipines?
I am indeed.

Hey summitfx, I like your Fibonacci Pivot system! 1.8996 exit on the short was twice accurate

Back to GBPUSD... I dont have historic data (i only reviewed 30 minutes before and after...) to further predict what to happend from now on hehe..

its a gamble to go long or short but I guess, TA will shine from now on. TA people, whats your call?
  • #46
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:40am Sep 25, 2006 9:40am
Beautiful Country BK~ Maybe you can Host a NEWS summit there someday!!


Quoting BurgerKing
I am indeed.

Hey summitfx, I like your Fibonacci Pivot system! 1.8996 exit on the short was twice accurate

Back to GBPUSD... I dont have historic data (i only reviewed 30 minutes before and after...) to further predict what to happend from now on hehe..

its a gamble to go long or short but I guess, TA will shine from now on. TA people, whats your call?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #47
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:51am Sep 25, 2006 9:51am
Does news really matter. The chart below shows the EUR decline started in the London session!
Attached Image
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #48
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:53am Sep 25, 2006 9:53am
Here is the quick analysis from HSBC on the data.

I like it where they say we would be 'weary of such analysis'. Freudian slip perhaps...I wonder if the analyst is tired!
Attached Image
"Always bet on black"
  • #49
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:58am Sep 25, 2006 9:58am
Interesting question summit. Studies have been done, and in many cases, data/news releases are not discernible in the price after a few days (I really need to sort my folder out so I can actually find of these studies that I keep filing away for so called 'future reference'!). That is to say, news tend to have a short half life.

That said, we all know cases where data/news has had a direct and sigificant and I'm sure it all adds up over the medium term.
"Always bet on black"
  • #50
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:59am Sep 25, 2006 9:59am
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand "this or that" type-thinking (FA or TA). What's wrong with FA and TA?

I understand an inclusive, dynamic mode of thinking that incorporates TA within the context of FA. This broadens the trader's vision and options until it's necessary to move to the micro level and enter the trade. Forex is indeed a dynamic market, so much so that focusing exclusively on a particular trading strategy or mindset must necessarily generate tunnel vision, accompanied by the inevitable blindside collision.

Seems to make more sense to: (1) have a comprehensive tool box (that's the FA & TA), designed by and tailored to you, then (2) employ a specific tool for the particular task at hand (that's the micro level, pulling the trigger at trade time, be it news, scalping or positioning).

Just my two pips worth.
  • #51
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:00am Sep 25, 2006 10:00am
I agree and it plays right along with the fading strategy. After the spike, the currency pair will resume it's pre-news trend. Not a hard rule but majority rules.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #52
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:01am Sep 25, 2006 10:01am
Wise Words from the MM again! Once a week I go thru and read all of MM posts and it's always a great learning experience


Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand "this or that" type-thinking (FA or TA). What's wrong with FA and TA?

I understand an inclusive, dynamic mode of thinking that incorporates TA within the context of FA. This broadens the trader's vision and options until it's necessary to move to the micro level and enter the trade. Forex is indeed a dynamic market, so much so that focusing exclusively on a particular trading strategy or mindset must necessarily generate tunnel vision, accompanied by the inevitable blindside collision.

Seems to make more sense to: (1) have a comprehensive tool box (that's the FA & TA), designed by and tailored to you, then (2) employ a specific tool for the particular task at hand (that's the micro level, pulling the trigger at trade time, be it news, scalping or positioning).

Just my two pips worth.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #53
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:02am Sep 25, 2006 10:02am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand "this or that" type-thinking (FA or TA). What's wrong with FA and TA?

I understand an inclusive, dynamic mode of thinking that incorporates TA within the context of FA. This broadens the trader's vision and options until it's necessary to move to the micro level and enter the trade. Forex is indeed a dynamic market, so much so that focusing exclusively on a particular trading strategy or mindset must necessarily generate tunnel vision, accompanied by the inevitable blindside collision.

Seems to make more sense to: (1) have a comprehensive tool box (that's the FA & TA), designed by and tailored to you, then (2) employ a specific tool for the particular task at hand (that's the micro level, pulling the trigger at trade time, be it news, scalping or positioning).

Just my two pips worth.
It can't be explained any better than that. Anyone who ignores one or the other has not got all the information.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #54
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:22am Sep 25, 2006 10:22am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand "this or that" type-thinking (FA or TA). What's wrong with FA and TA?

I understand an inclusive, dynamic mode of thinking that incorporates TA within the context of FA. This broadens the trader's vision and options until it's necessary to move to the micro level and enter the trade. Forex is indeed a dynamic market, so much so that focusing exclusively on a particular trading strategy or mindset must necessarily generate tunnel vision, accompanied by the inevitable blindside collision.

Seems to make more sense to: (1) have a comprehensive tool box (that's the FA & TA), designed by and tailored to you, then (2) employ a specific tool for the particular task at hand (that's the micro level, pulling the trigger at trade time, be it news, scalping or positioning).

Just my two pips worth.
There's gold in those words.
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OK OK...I completely agree with this statement. First off, I, too, never understood why there were only 2 camps: TA versus FA. Personally, I use both for precisely this reason...no one seems to do it...so therefore, I can exploit it.

People who say price action is everything seem to be a little too late, and people who rely soley on understanding the fundamentals without knowing where resistance and support are, are usually WAY too early (and consequently get shaken or stopped out).

I suppose a person could LEAN towards one or the other, as I tend to lean towards fundamentals more as I like knowing what the general direction and mood are BEFORE I look for entries and that usually requires fundamental momentum. The forex market has so much news that moves the market that it's impossible to avoid at least knowing what the expectations are and how the currency should react in the either-or (concensus agreement or surprise). With that said, the forex market also tends to let price action dictate the type of movement (breakout, fake, and especially resistance and support). So honestly, I can't see how you can do one without the other in this market with a positive expectation.

Here's a perfect example...pivot points which I find to be a technical-type trade. A lot of traders like to use these as they are self-fulfilling technicals (because a lot of people adhere to them), howevr, in a purely technical world, a positive break would net profitability pretty easily by just adhering. However, I've had more than a few traders that end up abandoning these relatively important areas but fail to realize that the reaction of the price around these points has a lot to do with the momentum (or lack thereof) fundamental derivatives.

Of course, that's my opinion...
  • #55
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:24am Sep 25, 2006 10:24am
Got 12 Pips on the fast drop (existing home sales) this morning and one pip prior to the news...yaa ba dab ba doooo, time for a Brewski to celebrate!!
I'm only a bird in a gilded cage
  • #56
  • Sep 25, 2006 11:28am Sep 25, 2006 11:28am
Does it really matter what the reports say? Can you really trade the reports?

How many times have they had two different talking heads on CNBC taking opposite positions after the news release? These are "experts" who can't agree. How is it that us mere mortals have any chance to decipher the information contained in these reports?
I don't even bother trying because the market is always right anyway. I just trade price action.
There is a quote from one of the Market Wizard books that goes something like this," Don't worry about what the markets are going to do, worry about what you are going to do in response to the markets".
I think that says it all. The less I tried to predict price action based on reports and the more I traded price action the easier trading became.
A lot of trading systems in this web site follow price action, I think it's a good way to trade, but also be aware when reports come out.
Trading is hard enough, trying to "argue" with the market when it moves against you and takes your money isn't a good strategy.
  • #57
  • Sep 25, 2006 12:42pm Sep 25, 2006 12:42pm
There is nothing wrong with what you're saying here. If you are more comfortable not having to understand the ins-and-outs of the news, then that's fine.

Not everyone has the time or the intellectual ability to try and wrap themselves around both topics at the same time. It's not an easy task, by any stretch of the imagination.

So, leaning, as I said, will be common. In your case, you lean on price action more...which I'm sure, for you, is good. Your trading account will reflect your success.

The point I'm trying to make is merely that traders would be more effective getting their bearings from the news while relying on price action to complete the story.
Let's just put it this way, the reaction for an individual piece of news isn't necessarily enough to determine the longer-term direction of the market. Therefore, there is a general MOOD for the market. At some point, there is a tipping point of news or a series of news related events that determine this mood. Can you feel what the mood is now? If you said, well, sure...it's anti-USD right now...then you'd be in pretty good shape. However, that mood started a weeks ago, and smart money had their positions in from the lows because of this. The price action, I'm sure contributed to this, but the fundamental forces were getting pretty clear, and it was an easy bet, really. So, like a good trader, you make trades based on technical confirmation of the mood. At any support of the USD-opposing currency, you bought, and you bet on break-throughs of resistance...right?

This is what I mean by being fundamentally inspired. Fundamentals is NOT necessarily news trading. The talking heads disagree with announcements when they initially come out (at release), but in general, there is concensus on the effects of the announcement, and while this doesn't help on intraday trades at the time of the release (unless the mood has already been determined), enough news in one direction givese a trader all the information for basing incoming trades using either the individual news trades (in the direction confirming the mood) or technical analysis.

I just think being able to determine the longer term direction of the market is easier with the help of fundamentals. My winning percentage is so much higher when I can get the TA to agree with my FA...and I suspect a lot of traders would agree.

Quoting crl212
Does it really matter what the reports say? Can you really trade the reports?

How many times have they had two different talking heads on CNBC taking opposite positions after the news release? These are "experts" who can't agree. How is it that us mere mortals have any chance to decipher the information contained in these reports?
I don't even bother trying because the market is always right anyway. I just trade price action.
There is a quote from one of the Market Wizard books that goes something like this," Don't worry about what the markets are going to do, worry about what you are going to do in response to the markets".
I think that says it all. The less I tried to predict price action based on reports and the more I traded price action the easier trading became.
A lot of trading systems in this web site follow price action, I think it's a good way to trade, but also be aware when reports come out.
Trading is hard enough, trying to "argue" with the market when it moves against you and takes your money isn't a good strategy.
  • #58
  • Sep 25, 2006 12:47pm Sep 25, 2006 12:47pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Seems to make more sense to: (1) have a comprehensive tool box (that's the FA & TA), designed by and tailored to you, then (2) employ a specific tool for the particular task at hand (that's the micro level, pulling the trigger at trade time, be it news, scalping or positioning).
i will join THIS party!

great stuff MM.
Relax and be happy.
  • #59
  • Sep 25, 2006 12:51pm Sep 25, 2006 12:51pm
Quoting crl212
Does it really matter what the reports say? Can you really trade the reports?

....

A lot of trading systems in this web site follow price action, I think it's a good way to trade, but also be aware when reports come out.
That answers your rhetorical questions....awareness of news releases is arguably more important than the substance contained therein. And while I don't advocate being "right" or "correct" in predicting news reports, I do find that geopolitical events (FA) impact markets and history tends to repeat itself (TA).

Knowledge of what the report says makes great cocktail conversation; making pips no matter what happens because you were prepared makes great bank accounts!!!
  • #60
  • Sep 25, 2006 12:57pm Sep 25, 2006 12:57pm
Quoting mrmikal
The point I'm trying to make is merely that traders would be more effective getting their bearings from the news while relying on price action to complete the story....

Let's just put it this way, the reaction for an individual piece of news isn't necessarily enough to determine the longer-term direction of the market. Therefore, there is a general MOOD for the market. At some point, there is a tipping point of news or a series of news related events that determine this mood. ...

This is what I mean by being fundamentally inspired. Fundamentals is NOT necessarily news trading. The talking heads disagree with announcements when they initially come out (at release), but in general, there is concensus on the effects of the announcement, and while this doesn't help on intraday trades at the time of the release (unless the mood has already been determined), enough news in one direction givese a trader all the information for basing incoming trades using either the individual news trades (in the direction confirming the mood) or technical analysis.

I just think being able to determine the longer term direction of the market is easier with the help of fundamentals. My winning percentage is so much higher when I can get the TA to agree with my FA...and I suspect a lot of traders would agree.
Mr.Mikal,

I am Inspired!! With a capital "I"!! Such eloquence, such profundity, so simply and clearly stated.
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Okay, was that good enough? You can send my pips now like we agreed!!!
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