Rufus | Page 107 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Rufus
Exit Attachments

Rufus

  • #2,121
  • Dec 6, 2017 8:59am Dec 6, 2017 8:59am
Goes great with my bacon, eggs, and hash browns.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: (3) EURUSDproM5.png Size: 63 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,122
  • Dec 6, 2017 9:11am Dec 6, 2017 9:11am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} I'm finding it difficult to make my style of trading mechanical when it comes to what I see on the chart. There are countless variables constantly in play, news releases, session timing, and the list goes on. So needless to say it is still a work in progress. I'm beginning to think that if we become to "mechanical" in our trading we lose the "Art" of trading. Goes all the way back to when I was a kid trading baseball cards with my friends. Sometimes it just comes down to "What you see, is all there is"
Hello Rufus. Been a while - I saw you drop by C-12's thread.

Interesting topic; the notion of art and mechanics in chart trading. I think it depends on how one defines "art". When I look at a Constable landscape, or even a Da Vinci rough sketch I see an extremely disciplined and mechanical approach to the rendering of art. It leads me to see beauty in the result, or as I would define it, true art. On the other hand, when I look at a Pollock for example, I just see noise (and this despite the critics remonstrating me for not "allowing" my mind to see something more positive).

Since I became completely mechanical in my trading it has improved immeasurably. Like you I still zone trade with a few extremely mechanical patterns that I look for to confirm the market has turned in the direction I want to enter. The rest is risk management. I think the biggest danger with charts and artistry is that we end up seeing what we want - 3 monkeys and a typewriter if we look hard enough. It's a slippery slope.
  • #2,123
  • Dec 6, 2017 9:23am Dec 6, 2017 9:23am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Hello Rufus. Been a while - I saw you drop by C-12's thread. Interesting topic; the notion of art and mechanics in chart trading. I think it depends on how one defines "art". When I look at a Constable landscape, or even a Da Vinci rough sketch I see an extremely disciplined and mechanical approach to the rendering of art. It leads me to see beauty in the result, or as I would define it, true art. On the other hand, when I look at a Pollock for example, I just see noise (and this despite the critics remonstrating me for not "allowing" my...

I know what you mean. I think somewhere in the middle of all this trading is a mixture of mechanical and art. We can show someone the mechanical, but the art is another story.

Speaking of Da Vinci. Art and Mechanics.

Attached Image
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,124
  • Dec 10, 2017 10:46pm Dec 10, 2017 10:46pm
Another book coming out in February from one of my favorite authors. I have preordered it.

Attached Image



He truly makes you think.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,125
  • Dec 14, 2017 10:29am Dec 14, 2017 10:29am
Market Symmetry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: (5) EURUSDproH4_LI.jpg Size: 868 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,126
  • Jan 2, 2018 12:18am Jan 2, 2018 12:18am
Going to start the year off with posting a strength index I have been working on.

The Aristotelian Strength Index. Was thinking about Aristotelian Strength System, but the acronym for it would be ASS. It is not really a system anyway. Just a way to gauge the currency strengths. I will post the Monthly, Weekly, and daily numbers. When trading, I will be calculating the hourly numbers. This whole thing may prove to be quite interesting to those who care about this kind of thing.

The idea behind it is to be trading the stronger against the weaker. I will be explaining more as we go along.

Monthly numbers for the close of December.

EUR 21 100%
GBP 10 47%
AUD 14 66%
NZD 5 23%
USD 7 33%
CAD 17 82%
CHF 10 21%
JPY 0 0%

From the numbers above you will see that the highest score a currency can receive is 21 points.

The monthly and weekly numbers are used for big picture strength. My trading will be the most influenced by daily and hourly numbers.

We will see where this goes.

Rufus Da Vinci


Attached Image
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,127
  • Jan 3, 2018 9:06am Jan 3, 2018 9:06am
01.02 Daily

EUR 18
GBP 10
AUD 14
NZD 12
USD 0
CAD 17
CHF 10
JPY 3

Hourly. Open of US session

EUR 12
GBP 3
AUD 21
NZD 13
USD 14
CAD 9
CHF 0
JPY 12

so GBPAUD Shorts , AUDCHF longs
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,128
  • Jan 3, 2018 11:52pm Jan 3, 2018 11:52pm
01.03 Daily

EUR 15
GBP 9
AUD 21
USD 0
CAD 16
CHF 7
JPY 3

So AUDJPY shorts, AUDUSD longs, CADJPY longs, USDCAD shorts.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,129
  • Jan 4, 2018 9:21pm Jan 4, 2018 9:21pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: (1) AUDNZDproH1 AT.png Size: 76 KB


Little 2:1 this morning. AUD 3 and NZD 17 on strength index for the hourly chart at US open. Shorts were in order.

Daily numbers for 01.04

EUR 12
GBP 8
AUD 20
NZD 19
USD 1
CAD 15
CHF 7
JPY 2

So AUDJPY, NZDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD shorts CADJPY longs
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,130
  • Jan 5, 2018 7:56am Jan 5, 2018 7:56am
From the above daily numbers it can be seen that the dollar has been taken to the "Wood shed" this week. Been sitting on a USDCAD short for awhile. Today was closing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: (2) USDCADproH4 AT.png Size: 44 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,131
  • Jan 6, 2018 4:32am Jan 6, 2018 4:32am
Quoting Rufus
From the above daily numbers it can be seen that the dollar has been taken to the "Wood shed" this week. Been sitting on a USDCAD short for awhile. Today was closing. {image}
Which broker is this ? i see your chart & mine are lots of differences...
Don't Predict Just React..
  • #2,132
  • Jan 6, 2018 3:20pm Jan 6, 2018 3:20pm
Quoting Nbr42
{quote} Which broker is this ? i see your chart & mine are lots of differences...

Forex.com
4h chart
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,133
  • Jan 7, 2018 6:13pm Jan 7, 2018 6:13pm
Daily numbers for 01.05

EUR 11
GBP 10
AUD 15
NZD 18
USD 3
CAD 21
CHF 6
JPY 0

so... CADJPY, NZDJPY, USDCAD, shorts
NZDUSD, longs AUDUSD as well but 15 is my borderline number.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,134
  • Jan 7, 2018 6:24pm Jan 7, 2018 6:24pm
Weekly numbers. Ending 01.05


EUR 16
GBP 17
AUD 13
NZD 14
USD 3
CAD 12
CHF 6
JPY 0
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,135
  • Jan 7, 2018 6:46pm Jan 7, 2018 6:46pm
The objective with all these numbers is a statistical model of the flow of money from one currency to the other. Then taking positions in that flow.

I will be laying these numbers out on a chart as the days progress along.

This isn't a trading system. Simply a way to visualize where the flow of funds are going. Then when the criteria are met to take a positon, I enter the market.


Another thing to consider. If two currencies have similar numbers they are in equilibrium as they relate to the others. It doesn't necessarily mean that the pair will be in consolidation, but that is often the case.

01.05 AUD daily is 15
01.05 NZD daily is 18

Daily and 4h chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDproDaily posting.png Size: 55 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDproH4 posting.png Size: 68 KB



Daily 01.05 Cad is 21
Daily 01.05 JPY is 0

4h chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYproH4 posting.png Size: 46 KB


Using this statistical model with my trading system will steer my positions toward the ones with the most profit potential.

For those interested; hope it makes sense.

Rufus Da Vinci
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,136
  • Jan 11, 2018 9:34pm Jan 11, 2018 9:34pm
Daily numbers for ASI 01.11

EUR 11
GBP 6
AUD 17
NZD 21
USD 1
CAD 7
CHF 5
JPY 16

NZD has been the strongest lately by far. This morning around the US open took a position with GBP/NZD. Hit my target while away from PC. I have not traded this pair very often due to the wide spread. The hourly numbers when the trade was placed...GBP - 3 , NZD - 21. The total move was about 120 pips. My position captured about 40.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: (3) GBPNZDproM5 AT.png Size: 51 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,137
  • Jan 12, 2018 8:53am Jan 12, 2018 8:53am
Attached Image



Have a super weekend.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,138
  • Jan 12, 2018 1:37pm Jan 12, 2018 1:37pm
I think these numbers are irrelevant for future direction of prices, just another indicator that shows the past.
Thanks for the book!
  • #2,139
  • Jan 13, 2018 8:49am Jan 13, 2018 8:49am
Quoting longpips
I think these numbers are irrelevant for future direction of prices, just another indicator that shows the past. Thanks for the book!
My trading likes these numbers...That's what counts towards the bottom line.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #2,140
  • Jan 14, 2018 8:33pm Jan 14, 2018 8:33pm
Working on another aspect of trading.

Technically... As the odds move more in your favor it would be cost effective to increase your risk.

So this year I will be working on classifying various edges in my trading. Then having a sliding risk scale, maybe .5 % to 2% for each position depending on the strength of the edge.

Time will tell if there is something to it.

There is a book out concerning this type of thinking.

Attached Image
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
0 traders viewing now