Euro getting overvalued or not? | Forex Factory

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Euro getting overvalued or not?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 25, 2006 4:18am Sep 25, 2006 4:18am
Wanted to find everybody's opinions...

I've been noticing recently that on almost every eur/??? pair, the euro has been reaching new highs the last couple of months. Now some are starting to break off from those highs, notably eur/jpy and eur/chf. Eur/Gbp has been going down since June. Are we seeing momentum stalling in the Euro? Could a bigger drop in Eur/Usd be coming? I've seen all the speculation for the Eur/usd going over 1.30 soon, but yet it hasn't happened yet. With all the crosses coming down, could this be an indication the euro is getting ready to go through a fundamental strength shift because of overvaluation? or do you think with the impending rate hikes from the ECB it will keep things in this consolidation range or drive it higher?

Certainly if nothing else with all the growth in the Euro the last few months, it seems as if a correction might be in order, before going higher. At least it is beginning to look like that.

Your thoughts for a penny!

GirlFlyer
  • #2
  • Sep 25, 2006 4:41am Sep 25, 2006 4:41am
Nobody knows. There are a lot of dickheads who will say this and that, but the fact is they don't know shit.
Quoting GirlFlyer
Wanted to find everybody's opinions...

I've been noticing recently that on almost every eur/??? pair, the euro has been reaching new highs the last couple of months. Now some are starting to break off from those highs, notably eur/jpy and eur/chf. Eur/Gbp has been going down since June. Are we seeing momentum stalling in the Euro? Could a bigger drop in Eur/Usd be coming? I've seen all the speculation for the Eur/usd going over 1.30 soon, but yet it hasn't happened yet. With all the crosses coming down, could this be an indication the euro is getting ready to go through a fundamental strength shift because of overvaluation? or do you think with the impending rate hikes from the ECB it will keep things in this consolidation range or drive it higher?

Certainly if nothing else with all the growth in the Euro the last few months, it seems as if a correction might be in order, before going higher. At least it is beginning to look like that.

Your thoughts for a penny!

GirlFlyer
  • #3
  • Sep 25, 2006 5:32am Sep 25, 2006 5:32am
Quoting jamie12
Nobody knows. There are a lot of dickheads who will say this and that, but the fact is they don't know shit.
That's awsome!

Never seen that before! Someone makeing a statement that is, in itself, the example.

Well done!!
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #4
  • Sep 25, 2006 5:45am Sep 25, 2006 5:45am
Hehehehe...

well the simple Joe logic goes like this: with housing data in US being crap, them having gone over 12 consecutive steps up and now paused, people suspecting perhaps cuts as soon as early 2007, interest rates become less attractive. Hawkish tones out of NZ drove the kiwi higher and almost daily the ECB and euro politicians have been propagating higher ECB rates. This SHOULD slowly let the Euro become more interesting for interest players ;P
Considering "we" are adding more and more countries with insane inflation to the EU maybe that'll also factor in.
I haven't studied economics however so I don't know jack shit nor do I claim to.
That's the current theory for a lot of folks it seems. Technical outlook is as posted over in the EUR/USD thread (from today) from my perspective.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5
  • Sep 25, 2006 6:25am Sep 25, 2006 6:25am
That is brilliant. You made me laugh, man. There is nothing more irking than analysts. Damn, they get it wrong even after the fact!! LoL.
Quoting SeekingLight
Hehehehe...

well the simple Joe logic goes like this: with housing data in US being crap, them having gone over 12 consecutive steps up and now paused, people suspecting perhaps cuts as soon as early 2007, interest rates become less attractive. Hawkish tones out of NZ drove the kiwi higher and almost daily the ECB and euro politicians have been propagating higher ECB rates. This SHOULD slowly let the Euro become more interesting for interest players ;P
Considering "we" are adding more and more countries with insane inflation to the EU maybe that'll also factor in.
I haven't studied economics however so I don't know jack shit nor do I claim to.
That's the current theory for a lot of folks it seems. Technical outlook is as posted over in the EUR/USD thread (from today) from my perspective.
  • #6
  • Sep 25, 2006 6:26am Sep 25, 2006 6:26am
That was exactly my point! Hats off to you for picking it up. I am a dickhead like everyone here. We don't know anything, and that is a fact.
Quoting bundyraider
That's awsome!

Never seen that before! Someone makeing a statement that is, in itself, the example.

Well done!!
  • #7
  • Sep 25, 2006 6:31am Sep 25, 2006 6:31am
I think this pair could go either way at the moment.

I'm not one to delve deeply into the fundamentals, but I do take in what I can, and there is definitely a shift happening. U.S. appears to be slowing, but also, as a counter, some Euro data appears to be ordinary as well. Didn't the German ZEW come out pretty ordinary too recently?

Looking at the Commitment of Traders, the commercials have gone from being extremely short to much less so. And very quickly at that.

That maybe supports the idea that we will see an eventual break to the long side. So many people have been speculating for months that we will get back up over 1.3000 area again. I've been shorting the rallies most of that time expecting a break downwards instead. LOL

I'm going to stick to the charts as much as I can and be very careful around news announcements . I'll go which ever way the train goes.
It's all I can do.

Cheers,
Bundy
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #8
  • Sep 25, 2006 8:32am Sep 25, 2006 8:32am
I think everybody has some good opinions so far even if a bit "straightforward" about those thoughts. I'm in agreement that none of us really know anything. The market is a beast with a mind of itself and only it can determine where it wants to go. The rest of us just have to follow along as best as we can and see if we can pick up some clues as to where it wants go. Unfortunately, we have a very indecisive beast to follow and it will stop and eat you alive if you get to close... ha ha!


Thanks for the replies all.
  • #9
  • Edited 8:41am Sep 25, 2006 8:41am | Edited 8:41am
Here is my 2 cents for your penny.
I say no major moves till the first quarter 07 where we could see the dollar make new lows.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #10
  • Sep 25, 2006 8:47am Sep 25, 2006 8:47am
Quoting jamie12
That was exactly my point! Hats off to you for picking it up. I am a dickhead like everyone here. We don't know anything, and that is a fact.
If you would take a quick glance at the original thread you will see something along the lines of "Wanted to find everybody's opinions..." I dont think GirlFlyer is asking for someone to look into their crystal balls and tell what they KNOW.
  • #11
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:25am Sep 25, 2006 10:25am
Quoting twinchell
If you would take a quick glance at the original thread you will see something along the lines of "Wanted to find everybody's opinions..." I dont think GirlFlyer is asking for someone to look into their crystal balls and tell what they KNOW.
Thanks TWinchell... you got it!
  • #12
  • Sep 25, 2006 10:38am Sep 25, 2006 10:38am
LoL. Think about that! The opinion of people on trading forums is invariably worse than useless. That includes mine, by the way. It is all a lot of nonesense. Sure, it passes the time. But that is all the good it does.
Quoting twinchell
If you would take a quick glance at the original thread you will see something along the lines of "Wanted to find everybody's opinions..." I dont think GirlFlyer is asking for someone to look into their crystal balls and tell what they KNOW.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Edited 11:17am Sep 25, 2006 10:47am | Edited 11:17am
Then maybe you should go join the comedy forum or something. I happen to respect the opinions (correct or otherwise) of a lot of people here. If you don't want to to give an opinion on what the writer of this thread asked then go elsewhere besides filling up this thread with rubbish.
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