That "AHA" Moment | Forex Factory

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That "AHA" Moment

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 1, 2017 7:08am Dec 1, 2017 7:08am
I'm starting this thread as I believe I have finally (after 2 years) discovered what works for me. This is me hitting the reset button in hopes of tracking positive progression only.

Short Term Goal : Show consistent green pips through 1 month
Mid Term Goal: Add minor funding and scale up, showing consistency for 6 months
Long Term Goal: Add major funding (potentially local investment) and reinvest earnings
End Goal: Quit my job, buy an RV, and travel while trading.

Hopefully I will not be looking back at this thread in 1 year in shame..

Thanks for any motivation/support in advance.
  • #2
  • Dec 1, 2017 10:05am Dec 1, 2017 10:05am
Quoting deekaey43
I'm starting this thread as I believe I have finally (after 2 years) discovered what works for me. This is me hitting the reset button in hopes of tracking positive progression only. Short Term Goal : Show consistent green pips through 1 month Mid Term Goal: Add minor funding and scale up, showing consistency for 6 months Long Term Goal: Add major funding (potentially local investment) and reinvest earnings End Goal: Quit my job, buy an RV, and travel while trading. Hopefully I will not be looking back at this thread in 1 year in shame.. Thanks...
I've had lots of AHA moments over the (9) years, and every time I had one I thought ... itīs this one.
Now, I know that my true AHA moment, was discipline (still fighting sometimes against that demon).

I'm glad that you discovered only after 2 years what works for you, trade well and good luck.
POW!
  • #3
  • Dec 1, 2017 10:18am Dec 1, 2017 10:18am
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} I've had lots of AHA moments over the (9) years, and every time I had one I thought ... itīs this one. Now, I know that my true AHA moment, was discipline (still fighting sometimes against that demon). I'm glad that you discovered only after 2 years what works for you, trade well and good luck.
Thanks for the feedback. Have you gotten to the point where you are profitable now?
  • #4
  • Dec 2, 2017 10:07am Dec 2, 2017 10:07am
The week ended out OK. I had a trade lined up selling the Yen on 3 correlating pairs, watched it for a few hours and it ALMOST hit my trigger, but didn't, so I sat on the sidelines while it spiked. I got in late, and got out early, only taking home 27 pips where I could have taken 100+. My strategy would have TP around 100-120, despire the total run was closer to 300+ pips.

I'm only slightly upset I missed it, but very happy that I had the move forecasted. Maybe need to drill down to lower TF in order to catch these moves, but this just increases risk. I guess it will depends how the trade looks. I'm thinking I should have given my trigger more of a range with the other correlations going on in this particular move.

Lesson learned and a +36 pip day to start the month.

See you guys Monday.
  • #5
  • Dec 4, 2017 9:55am Dec 4, 2017 9:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.4.17 buying the Yen.PNG Size: 131 KB


I forced this one. I WANTED it work, but didn't. Maybe I still have a long way to go psychologically, despite my strategy..
  • #6
  • Dec 4, 2017 10:02am Dec 4, 2017 10:02am
Quoting deekaey43
{image} I forced this one. I WANTED it work, but didn't. Maybe I still have a long way to go psychologically, despite my strategy..
I re-entered on 3 of these 4 a little later, when I should have. Closed two at breakeven after they didn't budge, held on to NZD/JPY and rode it down to my initial target for 27 pips.

AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are also still running in the initial direction forecasted. I did not have control of my emotions earlier. I will need to get this in check quickly.
  • #7
  • Dec 5, 2017 7:13am Dec 5, 2017 7:13am
Shorted USD/CHF, took my target of 16pips. I let it run past to about 21 or so, just to see where it would go, before taking the initial target.

Earlier in the morning, I took a scalp that went south. Not my strategy, I don't know why I traded it. FOCUS.
  • #8
  • Dec 5, 2017 8:41am Dec 5, 2017 8:41am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.5.17 overdue USD.CAD to pop-NEWS spike stopped out original position.PNG Size: 63 KB


I've been watching this pair all morning, it was overdue but never made any move, so something wasn't right. I talked myself into the fact that people were waiting on news at 8:30EST, and just before I took a long position in the trend that I thought it was going to despite the news. As you can imagine, the news whipsaw took my stop out, BUT, I held on to my strategy and after the dust settled I re-entered long. After it broke previous support, I opened another long position. I took them both up for a total of 40-45 pips. Not my target but I figured good enough for now.

Setting up for tomorrow unless something else comes up.
  • #9
  • Dec 5, 2017 9:47am Dec 5, 2017 9:47am
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} I've had lots of AHA moments over the (9) years, and every time I had one I thought ... itīs this one. Now, I know that my true AHA moment, was discipline (still fighting sometimes against that demon). I'm glad that you discovered only after 2 years what works for you, trade well and good luck.
As you can see so far, I have the same demon that you once had! Looking forward to hearing more about your journey and how you are able to suppress the demon.
  • #10
  • Dec 5, 2017 10:10am Dec 5, 2017 10:10am
Quoting deekaey43
{image} I've been watching this pair all morning, it was overdue but never made any move, so something wasn't right. I talked myself into the fact that people were waiting on news at 8:30EST, and just before I took a long position in the trend that I thought it was going to despite the news. As you can imagine, the news whipsaw took my stop out, BUT, I held on to my strategy and after the dust settled I re-entered long. After it broke previous support, I opened another long position. I took them both up for a total of 40-45 pips. Not my target but...
Ended up hitting my target a couple hours later. Trust the plan. Trust the plan..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.5.17 overdue USD.CAD to pop-NEWS spike stopped out original position2.PNG Size: 38 KB
  • #11
  • Dec 5, 2017 1:33pm Dec 5, 2017 1:33pm
Quoting deekaey43
{quote} As you can see so far, I have the same demon that you once had! Looking forward to hearing more about your journey and how you are able to suppress the demon.
Itīs a constant battle every day the temptation is huge.
The main thing is to follow the plan / strategy and maintain the discipline to not leave the rails.
In my case I'm a pullback trader, I follow the trends and the momentum inside the trends, itīs the only thing I trade and in a certain period (session) of time.

So if you have found your strategy to attack the market, now it's the discipline you have to work on.

Trade well.
POW!
  • #12
  • Dec 5, 2017 3:45pm Dec 5, 2017 3:45pm
Hey there deekaey,

I dont know how much you value other opinions but as a long time trader I would like to contribute to see if it would make a little sense or helps to your trading. It is obvious that you are over leveraging and that eventually stress you and will lead you making mistakes.

Your trade report seem quite messed up. After so many moves pip gain and equity gain is not in harmony. Seem like u jumped in whereever you find opportunity. I would highly recommend you to pick few pair and master them cos they all have their own characteristics. Possibly from those with low spreads. I dont know your strategy but whatever it is you have AHA moment with it so next step is to manage your risk. I think you should lower your risk per trade. You will be very comfortable placing your trades and just look at them from time to time.

It is great step to come front and challenge yourself in front of everyone. So I wish you all the best with your trading and your journal.
  • #13
  • Dec 6, 2017 2:36am Dec 6, 2017 2:36am
Quoting Kxeroo
Hey there deekaey, I dont know how much you value other opinions but as a long time trader I would like to contribute to see if it would make a little sense or helps to your trading. It is obvious that you are over leveraging and that eventually stress you and will lead you making mistakes. Your trade report seem quite messed up. After so many moves pip gain and equity gain is not in harmony. Seem like u jumped in whereever you find opportunity. I would highly recommend you to pick few pair and master them cos they all have their own characteristics....
Hi Kxeroo-

First off, thank you for taking the time to read and feedback some of your knowledge. I absolutely appreciate and value the opinion of a vet as I'm only a few years into this journey.

My risk/leverage is something I'm still finding a balance, thus why the lack of correlation in PIPS vs. Return. I am not using the same lot size for each trade as I trade on somewhat of a sliding scale of probability derived from confluence. Now there are two ways to look at this:

1. It's fine to use a sliding scale of probability, but only trade at a certain threshold of increased chance of win and trade the same lot size each time.
2. Do what I'm doing, which is try to quantify the probability in actual risk, that is actual $$

The first option is the safer option, for sure, but I feel more connected to the market and have more confidence in my trades when I correlate probability to risk. It just makes sense for me right now.

I appreciate your kind words and yes, this is a challenge not only in Forex but in pushing myself to master a craft.

Also, just to note on your comment in conclusion and in summary, I absolutely "jump in" where there is opportunity. I am not struggling to define that opportunity, but maintaining the mental fortitude to identify it correctly when it appears.

This morning, watching the USD on 3 pairs. Will update with any trades that are activated.
  • #14
  • Dec 7, 2017 7:15am Dec 7, 2017 7:15am
Had a blow up day yesterday. It's clear I still have a long way to go...
  • #15
  • Dec 8, 2017 7:53am Dec 8, 2017 7:53am
It's crazy how psychological this is.

I'm going to clean my office, reset my mind, and come back Monday fresh.
  • #16
  • Dec 8, 2017 4:12pm Dec 8, 2017 4:12pm
Hi deekaey,
I am sorry to see you blow up the accounts but who didnt? Only those who are dedicated and have passion for forex taking it to the next step. As I told earlier your position sizes are too big for your account. I cannot imagine myself ready to give away 4,5% per trade. If one is running 8 trades with 4% DD some degree I can understand that. But risking so much in single trade is just way out of my comfort zone.
I checked couple of your trades and I can see if u could hold on another couple of hours you would be in profit. So in my opinion if you work on your SL and risk management your system could be profitable too. Risk/ Retun is a tricky issue and many trader fail just so they are focused and obssessed with book told rules.

"If you have failed, that means you are doing something. If you are doing something you have a chance"
  • #17
  • Dec 11, 2017 3:17am Dec 11, 2017 3:17am
Quoting Kxeroo
Hi deekaey, I am sorry to see you blow up the accounts but who didnt? Only those who are dedicated and have passion for forex taking it to the next step. As I told earlier your position sizes are too big for your account. I cannot imagine myself ready to give away 4,5% per trade. If one is running 8 trades with 4% DD some degree I can understand that. But risking so much in single trade is just way out of my comfort zone. I checked couple of your trades and I can see if u could hold on another couple of hours you would be in profit. So in my opinion...
Kxeroo-

I appreciate the advice. I went back and reviewed all trades and you are right, sometimes I got out too quick. I think last week I was doing so well, I wanted to expedite the process and started making trades that weren't really there. Coming back Monday hopefully losing that invincible mentality.

I shorted U/J last night on parameters within my strategy and woke up to a TP hit. This was a win for me in two ways.
1. Trust the strategy
2. Don't babysit the trade

Not that I need it on this one, but I am testing a larger initial SL to see if I can let trades ride longer if they need to.
  • #18
  • Dec 12, 2017 8:34am Dec 12, 2017 8:34am
Took 4 trades this morning. 2 were slow to move so I closed them both for a net small gain. 3rd trade went to TP (30 pips). 4th trade was some PA I saw on the E/U, closed the full trade at first resistance. It may run further to 1.1700, and probably will if it gets through the issues at .1730, but for me the 10 pip portion is good enough. Feeling good. Looking for other setups, but probably not trading again until tomorrow morning.

Thanks to anyone still following along.
  • #19
  • Jan 25, 2018 8:07am Jan 25, 2018 8:07am
It's been about a month since I've posted, and honestly it's because I was humbled by my beatdown during the month of December. I wasn't ready. I was forcing trades where there wasn't anything, just to be in.

With this mornings EU move up hitting my target of 1.2500 and taking down 90 pips, I feel like I'm really hitting my stride. I'm up 80% this month.
  • #20
  • Jan 25, 2018 5:37pm Jan 25, 2018 5:37pm
I wasn't ready. I was forcing trades where there wasn't anything, just to be in

I think this is a universal problem among many struggling traders. Consistent traders seem to be getting on fine with taking couple of setups throughout the day. I want to make $ everyday in an ideal situation. But am I making $ everyday now staring at a screen from London open until US open ? Nope in fact I'm losing more by taking unnecessary trades in the name of booking profit daily. So its been counterproductive than helpful. Eventually I'm sure you'll be able to trade everything but for now if you have not yet reached consistency why not settle on 1,2 pairs and one session ?
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