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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #1,101
  • Dec 2, 2017 9:46pm Dec 2, 2017 9:46pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Trading is a serious business depending on one's ability to handle stress in my humble opinion. For me, my ability to handle stress is very high. So for me trading is fun and enjoyable. Any good job should be. I would agree that a naked chart ( without even moving averages) will serve the same purpose, but, like strat and many of us, I too am a visual guy, so there are some thing I need to be able see quickly. I will let you get back to the serious business of posting charts and continuing on "the...

Exactly!

This may help you "see" the potential trade that we have been discussing on EUR/CAD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADproWeekly.correct.png Size: 52 KB



No?
  • #1,102
  • Dec 2, 2017 9:56pm Dec 2, 2017 9:56pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Exactly! This may help you "see" the potential trade that we have been discussing on EUR/CAD: {image} No?
Improper use of indicators. Several give duplicate readings. A proper use of indicators are the use of candles, moving averages, and moving average fills as a visual aid, like you guys do. New traders do not know what indicators are supposed to do many times, that is all I am saying. A 100% indicator free chart is a line chart of the closes.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,103
  • Dec 3, 2017 12:11am Dec 3, 2017 12:11am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Improper use of indicators. Several give duplicate readings. A proper use of indicators are the use of candles, moving averages, and moving average fills as a visual aid, like you guys do. New traders do not know what indicators are supposed to do many times, that is all I am saying. A 100% indicator free chart is a line chart of the closes.

There was a reason I selected the youtube clip that I did.

Too subtle obviously.

Try this one:

Inserted Video


I defer to your wisdom on the subject: Indicators are "the way, the truth, and ...???"
  • #1,104
  • Edited 1:24am Dec 3, 2017 12:51am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting trogger
{quote} There was a reason I selected the youtube clip that I did. Too subtle obviously. Try this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNkjDuSVXiE I defer to your wisdom on the subject: Indicators are "the way, the truth, and ...???"
I offer no wisdom, because only the foolish think they are wise. Again, thank you for your reasoned and well thought out response.

I was not arguing, I was simply making a point. The fact that you do use indicators most certainly makes them of value.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,105
  • Dec 3, 2017 8:02am Dec 3, 2017 8:02am
A few Observations.

Strat, I'm sure you will correct any deviation I might have made to PASR.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Dec 17 NZD:JPY MN Observations.png Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Dec 17 NZD:JPY W1 Observations.png Size: 113 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Dec 17 NZD:JPY D1 Observations.png Size: 150 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Dec 17 GBP:USD MN Observations.png Size: 116 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: 3rd Dec 17 GBP:USD D1 Observations.png Size: 144 KB
  • #1,106
  • Dec 3, 2017 12:00pm Dec 3, 2017 12:00pm
Trogger, did you receive my PM from a few days ago?

Terry
  • #1,107
  • Dec 3, 2017 12:09pm Dec 3, 2017 12:09pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Exactly! This may help you "see" the potential trade that we have been discussing on EUR/CAD: {image} No?
  • #1,108
  • Edited 3:40pm Dec 3, 2017 3:30pm | Edited 3:40pm
Hey Trogger,

Thanks for your responses. Answering these questions really helps me to train my brain.

I am wondering if you are planning to enter next week on a break of the low of the SS (should it come) with a stop above the SS - if so, how far above would you place your stop, what would you then target?

Yes, that was originally my plan and still is as I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible until I get better. 10 pips above the SS would be my stop loss and my targets would be 1.5000 as this is the next immediate resistance, a second target of 1.4800 and a third target at 1.4500. These targets are based on immediate weekly major/minor support/resistance levels.

I am sure that you can see the "problem". You now have a beautiful SS - BUT, with a sell stop some pips below the low and a stop sensibly placed above the high of the SS, you will have perhaps a 350 pip risk. To have even a 1:1 reward to risk ratio you will then need to target approx 1.47 or below. If price drops to enter you, where is the next potential level of support you are targeting, on the time frame(s) that you will trade?

Ohhh yes, I saw this problem. Is there a way to overcome it? is it worth it? (questions I was asking myself) Based on my charts it would be about a 308 pip risk so my position sizes would be small in order to make sure I don't lose more than 1% of my account from all 3 trades combined. The time frame I will trade for my targets is just the weekly as my trade entry is based on the weekly.

In other words: is this a good use of your margin (even if it is Demo)?

I think this weekly SS at this major resistance level is worth the use of my margin even though my RR (if all targets are hit) is only a bit above a 1:1. What I'm trying to say is, is that the power of this potential reversal, to me, is worth the ~1:1 RR especially since I'm keeping my position size small.

On a another note, if the price retraces back to the major resistance level, and the daily PA suggests a strong chance of reversal, I would add/enter to my position, with a different stop and TP
  • #1,109
  • Dec 3, 2017 6:50pm Dec 3, 2017 6:50pm
PASR

Quoting stevepatt
A few Observations. Strat, I'm sure you will correct any deviation I might have made to PASR. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
AUDJPY
Big Boss - Big Boys taking PRICE down for a re-test of 81 to 77
Boss - PRICE trapped inside a 3 week Control Candle
Worker - PRICE at Strat Shadow resistance

NZDJPY
Big Boss - PRICE at support or maybe another test of 73 - 70
Boss - PRICE trapped inside a 3 week Control Candle
Worker - PRICE at Strat Shadow resistance

GBPUSD
Bbig Boss - Big Boys have run out of buying momentum - PRICE likely to stall or fall
Boss - PRICE now trapped in a new Control Candle
Worker - PRICE will wiz up and down inside the Weekly Control Candle UNTIL there is a CLOSE outside it

Note: Weekly Control Candles are NEUTRAL. Noting a bias will ""trick"" your trading brain into taking the wrong trade. Let the PRICE ACTION outside the Weekly Control Candle determine where PRICE is going = PASR
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,110
  • Dec 3, 2017 7:19pm Dec 3, 2017 7:19pm
Yoki is making his decision off the weekly ss.
I'm seeing a daily with a bearish engulfing bar rejected at 1.5390 and blowing thru 3 other S&Rs.
That leaves a large stop (290 give or take) but a lot of empty space to 1.4873 for price to go to.
Both big boss and boss are showing longs so what is being considered is a contratrend trade.
I'm leary of the large stop and not enough space below to cover the stop,
Therefore i'll wait to see if we have a pullback to 1.5128 or .5176 above to obtain a smaller stop and more empty space below.

Frank

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1512348650
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily.png Size: 40 KB
  • #1,111
  • Edited Dec 4, 2017 7:58am Dec 3, 2017 8:06pm | Edited Dec 4, 2017 7:58am
GBPNZD short:

Short on H1

Target to 1.9420 support
Stop above retrace

RR 1:3

This is a counter trend trade on the short time frame pullback of the longer time frame

Stopped out overnight, bad trade...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdh1.1.png Size: 40 KB
  • #1,112
  • Dec 4, 2017 1:32am Dec 4, 2017 1:32am
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} AUDJPY Big Boss - Big Boys taking PRICE down for a re-test of 81 to 77 Boss - PRICE trapped inside a 3 week Control Candle Worker - PRICE at Strat Shadow resistance NZDJPY Big Boss - PRICE at support or maybe another test of 73 - 70 Boss - PRICE trapped inside a 3 week Control Candle Worker - PRICE at Strat Shadow resistance GBPUSD Bbig Boss - Big Boys have run out of buying momentum - PRICE likely to stall or fall Boss - PRICE now trapped in a new Control Candle Worker - PRICE will wiz up and down inside the Weekly Control Candle UNTIL...

Hi Strat,

Thanks for the response, I will take note of your advice on WCCs.
  • #1,113
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:07am Dec 4, 2017 3:07am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I offer no wisdom, because only the foolish think they are wise. Again, thank you for your reasoned and well thought out response. I was not arguing, I was simply making a point. The fact that you do use indicators most certainly makes them of value.




Yes you were!


  • #1,114
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:23am Dec 4, 2017 5:23am
Quoting rina53547
{quote} hi trogger, May i ask about the second arrow? Did u do entry on that? From a little i know now, if i entry on that, i will have the SL a little above the green recrangle or perhaps above the last swing high, and if so, i will get stopped only to see it came down again. Anything i missed? May u explain a bit? Regards, Rina

Excellent Rina!

If this was a game of Monopoly, you would have just passed "Go" and would have collected $200! (Alas, this is REAL MONEY, not Monopoly, so there are No Free Handouts!)

I did leave that entry arrow above the bar to see if anyone asked the question. I even snapped a shot of the 15min chart just after making the entry with a view to posting later if anyone did ask. Here it is just after the entry was made:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYproM15.1.png Size: 36 KB


Now the entry looks quite reasonable on that time-frame when we can't see what is about to happen with price (and that is always the problem with real trading - we can NEVER kNOW what will unfold AFTER we make our entry).
Unfortunately, I did not think to put a trend line through the peaks - but you can see quite a good line down (if you have nice clean un-cluttered(indicator-free) charts) without any need to draw the line. The peak coincided with the trendline and with previous support (green rectangles). I did expect a reaction at the entry point - and you can see - there was one. Could have taken 100 pips but had set approx 300 as target. This was in case price respected my (invisible) trend line - in which case I would not have been able to get in higher - so would like a worthwhile return on the single entry.

Now, price may or may not respect a trendline. We have no way of knowing when we make the entry. So, to cover the possibility we head higher (a strong possibility in this example), I made only one small entry. Then I waited and I watched. With the capital reserved by not throwing everything on at this point, I have two further positions I am prepared to put on at higher prices. After a couple of days, I make another entry - the third red arrow on my chart in my original post and again watch and wait. The chart below was snapped immediately entry made:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYproM15.2.png Size: 35 KB


Didn't have to wait long. Goes to profit quickly and is approaching TP within an hour or so. So I snapped this for you too:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYproM15.3.png Size: 35 KB


Very soon after profit target is reached, there is a reaction in price back up and I use the (small) retracement back up to make the 4th red arrow entry on my chart in the post you asked about. Price then carried back down exiting me from the 4th position and leaving me just the original entry (and some nice cashed-up pips in my account). This last chart was snapped after the 4th arrow position had already closed:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDTRYproM15.5.png Size: 37 KB


So, to answer your question: No you haven't missed anything except, perhaps, the fact that I am a very naughty boy - I haven't been using stops. I prefer to stagger my entries and restrict the amount I place on such a highly risky trade.

I have stated many times that my entries are not always in accordance with the principles taught on this thread. You are advised NOT to adopt my methods. Do learn the method Strat is teaching, and it will make you highly successful - and FAR more disciplined than me.

Frankly, yourself and Yoki will be able to learn strict PA at SR as taught on this thread because you are new Traders - you have not had a chance to pick up the bad habits I had already acquired before finding Strat's thread.


Now, finally: I did point out - right at the beginning (first post) that this is highly speculative trading. This is not PA at SR - there hasn't been a level at which any (real) resistance has occurred in the last decade! The closest we see is big round number 3.00 which stopped the advance for about a year - mid 2015 to approx mid 2016. I merely pointed out that we have yet to close above the Jan 2017 high. I also put this right at the end of the post that Rina quite sensibly asked me about:

And remember: I may have posted 4 hour (even 15min) charts but I am NOT TRADING these time frames for all positions.
  • #1,115
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:54am Dec 4, 2017 5:54am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Yes you were!
No, I wasn't. But I will not let someone say they don't use indicators when they clearly do. Moving averages and candles are both indicators. You may go on YouTube and find another juvenile video now.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,116
  • Dec 4, 2017 8:51am Dec 4, 2017 8:51am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Excellent Rina! If this was a game of Monopoly, you would have just passed "Go" and would have collected $200! (Alas, this is REAL MONEY, not Monopoly, so there are No Free Handouts!) I did leave that entry arrow above the bar to see if anyone asked the question. I even snapped a shot of the 15min chart just after making the entry with a view to posting later if anyone did ask. Here it is just after the entry was made: {image} Now the entry looks quite reasonable on that time-frame when we can't see what is about to happen with price (and...

hi Trogger,

Thanks for the response. Will try to absorb it little by little. ☺

Regards.
  • #1,117
  • Dec 4, 2017 9:37am Dec 4, 2017 9:37am
GBPNZD

Quoting TerryDawe
GBPNZD short: Short on H1 Target to 1.9420 support Stop above retrace RR 1:3 This is a counter trend trade on the short time frame pullback of the longer time frame Stopped out overnight, bad trade... {image} {image}
Counter trend trades are ALWAYS risky and even more so on more volatile pairs.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,118
  • Dec 4, 2017 9:41am Dec 4, 2017 9:41am
Yeah thanks Strat,

As I said in my post, BAD TRADE..........I should know better by now......

Regards
Terry
  • #1,119
  • Dec 4, 2017 9:56am Dec 4, 2017 9:56am
Indicators

Quoting jmn5611
{quote} No, I wasn't. But I will not let someone say they don't use indicators when they clearly do. Moving averages and candles are both indicators. You may go on YouTube and find another juvenile video now.
"""""Moving averages and candles are both indicators""""

Come on, now you're trying to pick fly shit out of the pepper pot!

Yes, moving averages are derived from calculations BUT PASR does not use moving averages in the conventional way most use them AND saying candles are ""indicators"" is a bridge too far!

A candle is a ""visual"" indicator, I will give you that BUT, it is NOT derived from a formula or calculations as are stochastics, RSI, MACD, CCI, Williams %R etc., etc and all the rest of the indicator JUNK are.

A candle is derived from:

OPEN PRICE
HIGH PRICE
LOW PRICE
CLOSED PRICE

All those PRICES are FACT and PURE and NON-NEGOTIABLE whereas the indicator JUNK are first, second, third and sometimes fourth DERIVATIVES of that PRICE and therefore, are as much use as a crack in a glass eye!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,120
  • Dec 4, 2017 10:03am Dec 4, 2017 10:03am
Very well stated Strat

Regards
Terry
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