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US Existing Home Sales

  • #21
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:06am Sep 25, 2006 9:06am
It seems like GBP/USd is now retraceing back to pre-housing sales data. Insteresting
  • #22
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:08am Sep 25, 2006 9:08am
Quoting merlin
that could very well cause the dollar to strengthen on the release.
see what i mean!

although, we are retracing now, and burgerking is getting rich
Relax and be happy.
  • #23
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:09am Sep 25, 2006 9:09am
Seems like your strategy work very well. USD is now retrace back to pre-housing data level. I shorted GBP/USD and gain +8 pips. Not too bad. A bit cautious about the resistance at 1.9060. So, I'll short GBP/USD if it touch 1.9060.
  • #24
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:12am Sep 25, 2006 9:12am
to me the market looks a little stuck now:

cable @ 9020-30 (after trying down below 9000)
euro @ 2760
yen @ 16.50

is it a bear v bull struggle?

if yes, how will it end?...
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #25
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:12am Sep 25, 2006 9:12am
I only managed a +14 on the buy.

If history repeats itself, EURUSD/GBPUSD could go down again..

though it was bad, some could see it as "ummm, hey its not that bad"...

PS. I have a TTN (DEMO again), they released the news, and the move started a few seconds later. However, I hesitated to short GBPUSD because I noticed the enlarged spread at IBFX... Seeing that the spread could easily eaten the possible profit, I waited to fade the news instead.
  • #26
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:13am Sep 25, 2006 9:13am
Nice one BK, I had a small short, which I took profit on on the number. Looks like you got a full retrace as well! I'd be a little cautious about assessing it on an absolute basis...but don't listen to me as it did pay off this time!

Personally, I'm surprised at the full retrace. The mkt may be operating along the same lines of thought - it is just one number, and it is weak in absolute terms. However, in my eyes, asset prices are determined by information at the margin, and this information takes us at least a minor step back from the housing mkt meltdown scenario, so it should read as moderately USD positive.

Looking at the data I can see why the mkt doesn't like the details so much beyond the headline - the median house price fell to 225k from 230k, which is not good news, and the number of units available (supply) also rose.
"Always bet on black"
  • #27
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:13am Sep 25, 2006 9:13am
buger, im really impressed buddy. you are certainly evolving as a news trader. congrats on a wise play.
Relax and be happy.
  • #28
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:16am Sep 25, 2006 9:16am
Of course you did, Scott. I tried to put a decent offer ... but that old lady with a briefcase and $ 10 mil. cash offer for your property was just to much for me to handle...

Quoting smjones
Right on the nose... I just sold one of mine. So, maybe it is me that caused the problem... LOL, Scott

....
  • #29
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:16am Sep 25, 2006 9:16am
Dollar strength on the spike - that ain't right. Weakness showing on the retracement. Ah yes, pay the USD shorts.

And the beat goes on.....and on.....and on.....
  • #30
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:19am Sep 25, 2006 9:19am
Didnt get filled today, damn MBT, i lost initally because i hit the wrong button and they got me filled for that mistake. I corrected it by cancaling my trade and setting up a new straddle, which didnt get filled.

But i traded retrace. Could have made 18 pips on retrace but got greedy, so i only made 10, cant keep a position for long. Still a learning phase.

Total: + 6.5 pips. Not bad

Oww, BTW my first live trade if anyone cares ^_^
  • #31
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:20am Sep 25, 2006 9:20am
Stradlling the news just isn't working for me anymore since I learned the technique form MoneyMaster. I like Merlin's "fade that shit" philosophy.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #32
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:23am Sep 25, 2006 9:23am
Quoting smjones
...I just sold one of mine. <LABEL class=StoryContent id=StoryContent_Content></LABEL>
smooth move dude

i sold one about a year ago, anticipating the housing crash. i was about 15% too early
Relax and be happy.
  • #33
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:24am Sep 25, 2006 9:24am
Well time runs slower in the land of Green Jello.



Quoting merlin
smooth move dude

i sold one about a year ago, anticipating the housing crash. i was about 15% too early
  • #34
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:24am Sep 25, 2006 9:24am
Quoting summitfx
I like Merlin's "fade that shit" philosophy.


gotta love the fade!
Relax and be happy.
  • #35
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:25am Sep 25, 2006 9:25am
Last week, I started learning Pivot Point Systems. Over at the Forex Discussion, summitfx brought up his great "Fibonacci based Pivot Point system"..

It accurately predicted 1.9063 (strong R2 resistance), 1.9022 (Pivot), and 1.8996 (1st Support).

Applying it for today's news release, GBPUSD went down to 1.8996 support level, before retracing up to Pivot point level..

Hmmm... Nice tools; wish I had it plotted earlier on the chart to give me better guide.

DARN.. GBPUSD going down now!!!!!!

Another 10 pips on the short. These research are now paying off!
To trade news, keep a cool head and seriously analyze at the numbers and sentiments. Darn I feel so good i was in total control of myself today.
  • #36
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:27am Sep 25, 2006 9:27am
The fade was weak today, now the $$ is gaining strength, FAST. Hehe, retraces can only be stayed for a short period of time i quess.
  • #37
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:28am Sep 25, 2006 9:28am
Quoting merlin


gotta love the fade!
Merlin... do you mind of point me the right way to your "fade that ..." lol... since straddle is not working anymore. thank you...... great site you have here......
  • #38
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:29am Sep 25, 2006 9:29am
I can't take credit for that- Thanks to the FF, I downloaded the auto pivot indicator and it does work well. Thanks BK for going the extra mile to bring us the informative news data. Are you really in the Phillipines?



Quoting BurgerKing
Last week, I started learning Pivot Point Systems. Over at the Forex Discussion, summitfx brought up his great "Fibonacci based Pivot Point system"..

It accurately predicted 1.9063 (strong R2 resistance), 1.9022 (Pivot), and 1.8996 (1st Support).

Applying it for today's news release, GBPUSD went down to 1.8996 support level, before retracing up to Pivot point level..

Hmmm... Nice tools; wish I had it plotted earlier on the chart to give me better guide.

DARN.. GBPUSD going down now!!!!!!
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #39
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:30am Sep 25, 2006 9:30am
I think you can apply knowledge to fades - in this case the headline was quite positive, but the details of the report re housing supply were negative. Net net, it's good news but not as good as first impressions suggested.

I bailed my short at 1.2752. Looks like the market cleared out all the bit players before making the play.
"Always bet on black"
  • #40
  • Sep 25, 2006 9:30am Sep 25, 2006 9:30am
Quoting hunter101
Total: + 6.5 pips. Not bad
Oww, BTW my first live trade if anyone cares ^_^
Good trade to straddle and retrace.

Congratulations on your success!! And welcome to reality tv!!
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