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Plan the Trade

  • #3,621
  • Nov 28, 2017 11:16am Nov 28, 2017 11:16am
Quoting dave347
Hello all. I was following Harold's Nq thread from earlier this year. I was sorry to see it go, but I'm very happy to have found you all again. Harold, you are my HERO and I continue to learn from you. THANK YOU very much for all you do. I have been reading through the old posts here and catching up on it all. I do appreciate you all. Cableguy - your posts are all very interesting and helpful. I have noticed that you speak a lot about emotions, as it is a huge part of trading. I too struggle with my emotions when trading as most do...

Hi Dave! Funnily enough i just read a reply of yours to one of the trolls on H's old thread about 30 minutes ago...

Welcome and yes, emotions play a massive part of trading. The size positions with Futures and speed of the Nas in general has meant that those emotions (fear mostly) have increased, so i switched to demo earlier this year. I'm still using it now.

My last ten sessions or so have seen only a couple of losers, so i'm heading in the right direction and toggling back to 'Live' once in a while keeps a sense of reality.

This whole year has been all about finding a way that i can accept the risk and as Harold says, knowing that you will win say 60/70% of the time, means that you can accept the risk on each trade and go for it. Unfortunately, everytime i tried back in Spring, i got off to a losing start and froze, choosing to go back to the safety of demo, instead of ploughing on through. To be honest, i was not ready back then. I was making far too many mistakes, but slowly i believe that i am zeroing in on it. Just a case of dotting 't's and crossing 'i's... or something!)
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #3,622
  • Nov 28, 2017 11:21am Nov 28, 2017 11:21am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} No, it is purely EW based. I labelled and posted the chart in hindsight and i was too slow in recognising the move. For me, the clue is in the last blue 'a' wave being 3w abc, (as opposed to a 5w move), 'b' is always in 3w, but will become a 'flat correction' after a 3w 'a', (basically it will retrace all or nearly all of 'a'); {image} The NQ loves double tops/bottoms for flat corrections, i've never seen so many on any other instrument! When it did not make a fresh high, it then started it's 'c' wave; {image} As i say, i was too slow in...
that setup is known as a trap play where the market just takes out high trapping longs its also a 2b
  • #3,623
  • Nov 28, 2017 11:41am Nov 28, 2017 11:41am
There is something that i really must introduce to my method and that is....

When volume is high, take the entry to a set-up, as soon as a pin is validated by the next candle, whereas (and this is the important thing...) when volume is lesser (usually later), it is wise to wait for the little kick back (small subwave 'ii'), which can be one, two or even three candles later, for your fill.

Generally entering at 50% of an engulfing candle or pinbar, is a great bet in these circumstances...

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I took that first one and was too aggressive with my stop, ending in BE. The earlier replay session took it out of me, i reckon. An hours trading a day is enough.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #3,624
  • Nov 28, 2017 11:59am Nov 28, 2017 11:59am
Quoting The Cableguy
When volume is high, take the entry to a set-up, as soon as a pin is validated by the next candle
Just curious, what is your validation criteria before placing your trade?
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #3,625
  • Nov 28, 2017 12:09pm Nov 28, 2017 12:09pm
Turns green for longs, red for shorts!)

I will know more in a week or two, cos it's still a 'feeling' based on expectation becoming reality. But i think the above post summed it up. Wait for pullback, after validation when volume is low...

Let's face it, we want to see buyers coming back into the market upon a pullback. It is impossible not to print bullish candles when such occurs! No such thing as 100% in the market, but early days suggests this is working better for me than just taking the pullback levels themselves (unless they are 'nil brainers').

I've still taken quite a few losing trades in these past three sessions, but they are far outweighed by the winners (by value).
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #3,626
  • Nov 28, 2017 12:44pm Nov 28, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} hey dave good to see you everything is still the same except I added market profile to take these setups from. as I have said in past posts emotions are a part of trading and even after 17 years I still have them. The way I combat it is twofold I move stop to BE after I get up 6 and secondly knowing that these setups work about 75% of the time I like the probability of them succeeding
Yes - Harold has posted good stuff. Myself, I still trade his idea of using two averages and Range bars. You stick to what you are happy with and this aspect of Harold past I am happy with and works for me. Emotions can be worked with if you are confident and happy with your trading approach. I don't understand how to use market Profile or what it's edge is, so I stick to what I know and what I know is due, to a large part, to what I gleaned from Harolds writings on FF. Happy pipping Harold and long may it continue.
keep at it Cable guy, you will get there.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,627
  • Nov 28, 2017 12:58pm Nov 28, 2017 12:58pm
Yo Neil the ole sc1050 still working glad to hear it
  • #3,628
  • Nov 28, 2017 10:19pm Nov 28, 2017 10:19pm
Div why don’t you watch correlating markets / stocks ?
  • #3,629
  • Nov 29, 2017 7:02am Nov 29, 2017 7:02am
Quoting rudy5
Div why don’t you watch correlating markets / stocks ?
Not that smart. I am only in market for 1 hr PA will give me direction
  • #3,630
  • Nov 29, 2017 8:27am Nov 29, 2017 8:27am
So, despite my protestations of fatigue last night, i decided to try some 'Live' trading.

I suppose it's self fulfilling really. It was my (over) confidence that led me to feel like starting. I took 4 trades. One BE and 3 losers. The wrong side of the trade everytime.
Result was -11, (so -15 with comms).

Not one set-up was according to 'the Plan' and different to my earlier replayed session, my tight stops saved me from double the losses as opposed to stopping me (prematurely) out of winners.

I then froze and stopped trading.

About 3 minutes later i see a pullback area visited and tell myself, that's were PA should reverse. It did and i watched it as a spectator for a likely 12 tick gain, back to it's prior reversal pin in the opposite direction, where i said to myself again, that's the entry level hit and it reversed again within a couple of ticks, as i expected, for another chunk.

Both of those were far better set-ups than the one's i chose to try.

Go figure!

I can't even explain to you why i took the one's that i did, but i sure beat the crap out of myself after closing the platform down.

Here's the thing. We will always make mistakes, but if i had traded the next two winners i would have come out of it positive by at least 10 ticks. So my 'pain' threshold is still really low.

I was over-confident, leading to over-trading.

I just traded 15 minutes of my next 'replay' session and took two trades;

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Both trades felt 'natural'. So that's +28 with 2 comms.

I give up with myself. I really do.... Maybe Diazepam might work!)
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #3,631
  • Nov 29, 2017 8:51am Nov 29, 2017 8:51am
Calling it a day with +5 ticks. It would have been more but I pressed the wrong button, so I lose an entire tick. These are my two trades.

Today I was going back two SD areas, counting flat at SD.
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  • #3,632
  • Nov 29, 2017 8:53am Nov 29, 2017 8:53am
Missed out on this pullback
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  • #3,633
  • Nov 29, 2017 8:58am Nov 29, 2017 8:58am
Quoting The Cableguy
So, despite my protestations of fatigue last night, i decided to try some 'Live' trading. I suppose it's self fulfilling really. It was my (over) confidence that led me to feel like starting. I took 4 trades. One BE and 3 losers. The wrong side of the trade everytime. Result was -11, (so -15 with comms). Not one set-up was according to 'the Plan' and different to my earlier replayed session, my tight stops saved me from double the losses as opposed to stopping me (prematurely) out of winners. I then froze and stopped trading. About 3 minutes later...
CG just keep putting them on
  • #3,634
  • Nov 29, 2017 9:29am Nov 29, 2017 9:29am
Is that a 400 tick drop in an hour??!! I'm at work and looking at a chart online. Have to see a real one to believe it. What happened? Anyone know?
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #3,635
  • Nov 29, 2017 9:37am Nov 29, 2017 9:37am
Hello again all. I will post my charts today and every day now. I don't know if this will have any benefit to you all. But will help keep me honest and accountable for my trades. I think that is very important! Again I thank you all for all you posts and charts they have helped me.
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  • #3,636
  • Nov 29, 2017 11:08am Nov 29, 2017 11:08am
i just looked again....-133 points....-532 ticks!! MP will be useless tomorrow. Again, I'm not at my computer, but I remember there were some naked weekly POC's below. They may be covered. I hope you folks raked some of this in!
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #3,637
  • Nov 29, 2017 12:56pm Nov 29, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting The Cableguy
So, despite my protestations of fatigue last night, i decided to try some 'Live' trading. I suppose it's self fulfilling really. It was my (over) confidence that led me to feel like starting. I took 4 trades. One BE and 3 losers. The wrong side of the trade everytime. Result was -11, (so -15 with comms). Not one set-up was according to 'the Plan' and different to my earlier replayed session, my tight stops saved me from double the losses as opposed to stopping me (prematurely) out of winners. I then froze and stopped trading. About 3 minutes later...
I assure you CG that many of us have been there or visited a similar locality :-)
The good thing is you know you are making mistakes. Just keep at it and things will get better, pieces of the jig saw come together and, most important, you begin to control you ( the you that aspires to trading success.)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,638
  • Nov 29, 2017 2:30pm Nov 29, 2017 2:30pm
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Become the casino
  • #3,639
  • Nov 29, 2017 2:31pm Nov 29, 2017 2:31pm
that was my day .. got off to a good start and then was scrambling to find more levels as we drove through el .. could have made a lot more
Become the casino
  • #3,640
  • Nov 29, 2017 2:34pm Nov 29, 2017 2:34pm
should have shorted at these points also:

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Become the casino
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