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Discovering An Edge

  • #1,281
  • Nov 21, 2017 9:47am Nov 21, 2017 9:47am
It's possible that Wave 2 ABC formation has now completed.

Looking for Wave 3 to begin.
Wave 3 also travels in mini/subwaves of 5.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E774608F-B0F3-4A6E-8D2C-7257905BC095.png Size: 948 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,282
  • Edited Nov 22, 2017 2:04am Nov 21, 2017 10:10am | Edited Nov 22, 2017 2:04am
I've place order limits for DAX on the short side. Above and below current price.

Edit:
I cancelled these based on the Frankfurt open (7am)
The move rose sharply which is always a fake move up to set up shorts.
But when it went lower than Open Price, the action wasn't very impulsive.

I did set one Limit Sell order around 13140ish to catch any spike move down.
This was later triggered.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,283
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:49am Nov 22, 2017 1:49am
DAX Shorts @
13181
13178
13153
13139
13128

Price heading to Pivot. Possible bounce which is another shorting opportunity.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,284
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:55am Nov 22, 2017 1:55am
On the BTC board I have Longs:

8256
8273
8302
8322

Target is 8660 or Higher. I have 2 higher projects with the highest 9325
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,285
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:57am Nov 22, 2017 1:57am
GBPUSD

Don't even get me started. I have positions underwater.
What I might do if Bitcoin makes a move, is use one of those trades to offset the drawdown and close some of the GBPUSD opens.
That would then allow me to re-open shorts at higher price (I am short biased).

The sideways trend is most likely waiting on the Chancellor's Budget which will be released today.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,286
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:17am Nov 22, 2017 2:17am
DAX Chart this morning.
Has a few interesting features

 

  1. During Frankfurt Open, I noticed the pause right in the middle of all the moving averages. Usually this just shoots through.
  2. During London Open, there was hardly any bullish pump - this actually threw me off triggering manual shorts. I had expected a classic pump and dump move but this didn't happen.
  3. The 1H chart shows that price was outside bollinger band on the long side during the climb up. It's now gone outside during the drop down. Interestingly it's not gone outside during the peak. Not usually what happens.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX.png Size: 219 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,287
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:25am Nov 22, 2017 2:25am
Current 5MIN action suggests that DAX may shoot up.
I might open hedge longs just in case.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,288
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:47am Nov 22, 2017 2:47am
Dax didn't go up.

Added short @ 13121
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,289
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:15am Nov 22, 2017 3:15am
DAX has hit the 1H 55EMA.
This would be an ideal place to bounce higher.
Decision for me is whether to hedge my shorts with a Long.
Or close my shorts currently approx +452 net.

Another option is to wait - which is free.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,290
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:27am Nov 22, 2017 3:27am
Quoting vlady1974
DAX has hit the 1H 55EMA. This would be an ideal place to bounce higher. Decision for me is whether to hedge my shorts with a Long. Or close my shorts currently approx +452 net. Another option is to wait - which is free.

Also possible to close only some of the shorts :-)
  • #1,291
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:41am Nov 22, 2017 3:41am
Quoting EddyL
{quote} Also possible to close only some of the shorts :-)
It would be - it depends on perspective.

These trades are almost like swing trades, so they're built on a basis of going waaaaay further down, not just whether they're in negative for the day.
If I was Day Trading, they would have been closed already - but that doesn't guarantee that price will retrace to the exact same levels.

Time horizons dictate your trade objective.
On a related matter, Money Management is about protecting the account from negative positions. Hence why a hedge is what I'm looking at doing.
The hedge would have to cover all the positions while the market goes up.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,292
  • Nov 24, 2017 12:46am Nov 24, 2017 12:46am
Too busy to post atm
Closed my shorts yesterday. Was a bit unsure on Dax. It's possible that a bigger ABC invalidate my count.

Am now long on today's pivot. Won't hold over weekend I
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,293
  • Nov 27, 2017 1:44am Nov 27, 2017 1:44am
Closed some good longs on BTC over the weekend, but I also lost half that trying to call the top. Not good.
Exited my SIPP XBT shares this morning though and banked 12% on the one bitcoin trade.

This morning I scalped a long on DAX, but the target was to short 13120.
Unfortunately, I forgot to place the bloody order as I wasn't prepared this morning!! Grrr

I have taken a short DAX @ 13093, added @ 13071 and 13079
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,294
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:00am Nov 27, 2017 3:00am
Quoting vlady1974
Closed some good longs on BTC over the weekend, but I also lost half that trying to call the top. Not good. Exited my SIPP XBT shares this morning though and banked 12% on the one bitcoin trade. This morning I scalped a long on DAX, but the target was to short 13120. Unfortunately, I forgot to place the bloody order as I wasn't prepared this morning!! Grrr I have taken a short DAX @ 13093, added @ 13071 and 13079
Stopped out +88
I should have scalped it but that's 20/20.

Will be reloading shorts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,295
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:03am Nov 27, 2017 3:03am
Short DAX @13085
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,296
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:05am Nov 27, 2017 3:05am
Added short DAX @ 13093
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,297
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:12am Nov 27, 2017 3:12am
Added DAx @ 13099 (not quick enough, was eyeing 105)
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,298
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:16am Nov 27, 2017 3:16am
I'm short biased on DAX.
The EW count was slightly off and I don't / didn't have time to post the chart.
The ABC is still in play, but the swings are not quite where they are - because of that irregular drop two weeks ago (that formed a double bottom ish formation).
Essentially, we're taking shorts on the perceived C wave formed by Last Friday's top on Weekly R1 and above Friday's Daily R2.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,299
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:18am Nov 27, 2017 3:18am
It also never ceases to amaze me how volatile DAX can be.
Reminds me of GBPUSD. It whiplashes.

So the short entry was confirmed in the morning, but look at how the market reversed to exactly same position.
As if the first market players confirm, then the 2nd market players come in
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #1,300
  • Nov 27, 2017 4:07am Nov 27, 2017 4:07am
Was about to post that the Weekly Pivot Point is going to be crucial, when price dropped right on it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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