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The Swamp

  • #12,121
  • Nov 24, 2017 8:14am Nov 24, 2017 8:14am
Quoting Boulder
this is brutal for shorts,, 95 adr already with thin liquidity, I still hold my positions against my system, against the trend. This proves to me once again... manual trades don't work for me. after all theses are settle, I will go back to my automatic trading. Since price cannot keep rising forever, there are limits per period, 1930 is probably top for now.. due to dollar index just hit 92.73 at the support 92.70/92.75

always have a stop, always have an out..its the most important thing really, price cant go up forever, but it sure can go up a lot....not trying to be a smart ass, but just a friendly reminder...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 25 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #12,122
  • Nov 24, 2017 8:16am Nov 24, 2017 8:16am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} true, thanks, I didn't put hard stops because I trade small positions at different levels....I didn't over leverage my trades.. ...so the loss is from mini to bearable...of course even this conservative method bite me today.... Going forward.. for me ..I need to go back to automatic trading .... leave human emotion completely out of this.. Euro On 11/23/2017 for 11am est. BLDR system update : H1, uptrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1842, Running Period: 55 hours H4, uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1705, Running Period: 11 x H4 Daily, uptrend,...
since it was above 1935, a close below now may reject some. bulls are strong, i suspect if they want to go higher. they will keep L roll 1935+.. maybe some small volatility here b4 roll..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #12,123
  • Edited 8:30am Nov 24, 2017 8:18am | Edited 8:30am
my next R's are 1968. and 1977....

2042 is my big R....

have a good weekend...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #12,124
  • Nov 24, 2017 8:23am Nov 24, 2017 8:23am
Quoting Driver55
area 1.1860 -1.1949 is truly a tough area to overcome
I started to accumulate shorts on EURUSD @1.1924 even if it's Friday.
I'm aware that it may rise again and, in that case, I will further accumulate the position @1.1964.
Let's see next week.

Have a nice weekend !!!
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #12,125
  • Nov 24, 2017 8:33am Nov 24, 2017 8:33am
Quoting gatorinla
i took a 1/4 position 1936 stop 1945,, tp 100 atm.. it pushed above 1935.. so i may know soon..
closed manual -3
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #12,126
  • Nov 24, 2017 8:36am Nov 24, 2017 8:36am
a new higher day/week close 1939.. longs still in vogue.. retraces on my buy radar..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #12,127
  • Nov 24, 2017 9:19am Nov 24, 2017 9:19am
I hope you don't mind, I thought I'd post this here as well. Back in the day (2008-09) these used to work very well with Gator's line.

Based on my panel price is capped at 1.2119 in December followed by strong bear month in January.

So panel suggesting there will be a test, and subsequent failure, of the gap printed in 2014 (2070 - 2119).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 50 KB
  • #12,128
  • Nov 24, 2017 9:47am Nov 24, 2017 9:47am
Still holding from 1,156x and add 1,18, sl raised around 1.184x.
i start to see a path short, but on daily we have a bull H&S so have room for 1,21- 1,22
Beware of Draghi
  • #12,129
  • Nov 24, 2017 9:56am Nov 24, 2017 9:56am
Quoting Paolob
Still holding from 1,156x and add 1,18, sl raised around 1.184x. i start to see a path short, but on daily we have a bull H&S so have room for 1,21- 1,22

You hold from 1.156x .... and start to see a path short now ???
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #12,130
  • Nov 24, 2017 11:21am Nov 24, 2017 11:21am
I don't know why and how but this is the third time, I end with a loss every November. Last year was worse, EUR tend to be strong trending in November almost every year. I had a bullish bias however rally began without my entry 1.1660s. I tried to catch some retrace at every resistance zone but didn't work well I must admit. The move is steady and very decent. It is obvious that they have a target set for higher levels now. All I can hope now is a news driven short retrace to join with bulls.

I need to keep my ammo for December. I still don't see EUR ending the year around here.

1.2140s Gator's long term target is very reachable even 1.2400s. Will play accordingly keeping these crazy targets in mind.
  • #12,131
  • Edited 2:11pm Nov 24, 2017 1:29pm | Edited 2:11pm
Just for fun, I did some calculations , I would like to share with you
For simplicity, if I used $800 to invest either Bitcoin or Euro/usd on 1/3/2017,
that day BTCUSD low $812, so I could get almost 1 bitcoin, today it worths 8,354, which is 844% return.

while Euro that day low was 1.034, $800 could get me at least 8 min lots ( 50:1 margin), today it worth
$9555 (8X 1.1944), that is 1094% return on the investment. much better return than bitcoin

Wow, what a run for Euro so far this year...
  • #12,132
  • Edited 2:07pm Nov 24, 2017 1:48pm | Edited 2:07pm
shorted very small one at 1935(1-2 lots wont hurt me) sl will be 1975+spreads, will add more later for 1 hard stop. try to eat the rollover rate
I see 1944 is fib R weekly ext level and 1965 is also another fibo weekly ext R leve so I set sl 10 pips above(1965+10+spreads=1975+spreads).
Target back to 17ish/18ish, depends on monthly closes. Right now is near 1807 is temp target.
If it wont work out, will try again at 204ish!

Dont like to trade against the trend so very small one lot size will be ok

Have a great weekend guys!
  • #12,133
  • Nov 24, 2017 2:47pm Nov 24, 2017 2:47pm
Quoting Driver55
{quote} You hold from 1.156x .... and start to see a path short now ???
Yes my long will stop if 1,186x dont hold in a day close
Beware of Draghi
  • #12,134
  • Edited 7:38am Nov 25, 2017 2:33am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting Connors
I don't know why and how but this is the third time, I end with a loss every November. Last year was worse, EUR tend to be strong trending in November almost every year. I had a bullish bias however rally began without my entry 1.1660s. I tried to catch some retrace at every resistance zone but didn't work well I must admit. The move is steady and very decent. It is obvious that they have a target set for higher levels now. All I can hope now is a news driven short retrace to join with bulls. I need to keep my ammo for December. I still don't see...
bcs u did know u will n afraid of trading Long, but this time u were right on being bullish but traded bearish to be able trade w tight stop fecking life

1.2550-2600 in sight

will love to watch 1.2100 battle
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #12,135
  • Edited 2:50am Nov 25, 2017 2:40am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting mbrown
I hope you don't mind, I thought I'd post this here as well. Back in the day (2008-09) these used to work very well with Gator's line. Based on my panel price is capped at 1.2119 in December followed by strong bear month in January. So panel suggesting there will be a test, and subsequent failure, of the gap printed in 2014 (2070 - 2119). {image}
according to my data that gap already been closed w last visit to 1.2000+
d zone 1.2000, if u remember took some yrs to break down n possbily wont give up easy on d way bulls. PA will tell

edit : if bulls fail, 1.1000 n more possible d gap down at 1.0770 could be closed as well
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #12,136
  • Nov 25, 2017 2:54am Nov 25, 2017 2:54am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 52 KB
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #12,137
  • Nov 25, 2017 7:11am Nov 25, 2017 7:11am
looking to test some autopivot indicators to find one with 3 daily S&R levels..the more accurate the better. Any one have one or two they really like?
  • #12,138
  • Edited 9:11am Nov 25, 2017 8:52am | Edited 9:11am
Euro On 11/23/2017 for 5pm est. BLDR system update :
H1, uptrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1842, Running Period: 61 hours
H4, uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1705, Running Period: 12 x H4
Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1534, Running Period: 2 days

For timewise... H1 is at the late stage.. high possibility H1 will soon reverse to downtrend ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Willian Gann about time vs price.png Size: 35 KB
  • #12,139
  • Edited 9:15am Nov 25, 2017 9:04am | Edited 9:15am
William Gann's 28 golden rules:


1) Never risk more than 10% of your trading capital in a single trade.
2) Always use stop-loss orders.
3) Never overtrade.
4) Never let a profit run into a loss.
5) Don't enter a trade if you are unsure of the trend. Never trade against the trend.
6) When in doubt, get out, and don't get in when in doubt.
7) Only trade active markets.
8) Distribute your risk equally among different markets.
9) Never limit your orders. Trade at the market.
10) Don't close trades without a good reason.
11) Extra monies from successful trades should be placed in a separate account.
12) Never trade to scalp a profit
13) Never average a loss.
14) Never get out of the market because you have lost patience or get in because you are anxious from waiting.
15) Avoid taking small profits and large losses.
16) Never cancel a stop loss after you have placed the trade.
17) Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
18) Be willing to make money from both sides of the market
19) Never buy or sell just because the price is low or high.
20) Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Pyramiding should be only accomplished once it has crossed resistance levels and broken zones of support.
21) Pyramiding can be very profitable at the right time. Select commodities with a strong trend up when buying and with definite downtrend to sell short.
22) Never hedge a losing position. If you are long one commodity and it starts to go down, don't sell another commodity short to hedge it. Get out of the market. Take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
23) Never change your position without a good reason. When you make a trade, make it with good reason according to some definite rule. Then do not get out unless there is a definite indication of change in trend.
24) Avoid trading after long periods of success. You should maintain a disciplined, planned trading program.
25) Don't try to guess tops or bottoms. Let the market show you that it has genuinely made a top or bottom.
26) Don't follow a blind man's advice.
27) Reduce trading after the first loss; never increase.
28) Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; or getting in right and out wrong. This is making a double mistake.
  • #12,140
  • Edited 2:26pm Nov 26, 2017 8:06am | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
a new higher day/week close 1939.. longs still in vogue.. retraces on my buy radar..
can not be lower than 174ish/6ish. 1856/1829 looking good(WPP at 1862)
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