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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,801
  • Oct 16, 2017 4:34am Oct 16, 2017 4:34am
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Seems like a good opportunity to make money, bookies try to make market in things they are unfamiliar, look at the odds, low risk high return

can even catch them in black swan event like how george soros correctly predicted the decrease in interest rate, the odds is just too good.

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  • #57,802
  • Oct 16, 2017 9:06am Oct 16, 2017 9:06am
Quoting GoldenFinger
{image} {image} Seems like a good opportunity to make money, bookies try to make market in things they are unfamiliar, look at the odds, low risk high return can even catch them in black swan event like how george soros correctly predicted the decrease in interest rate, the odds is just too good.
Hello GoldenFinger,

It's nice to see you again. Please just specify what that's about trading. I mean, apart from entertainment or playing how could we exploit it in FX trading. Perhaps, brains refreshing or another way to hedge... a sort of "how many legs animal" here? I'm a little confused what we are making from FTI's TAF Thread. Maybe it's coming.

Hope that you are good in predicting.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,803
  • Oct 20, 2017 10:06pm Oct 20, 2017 10:06pm
Wow, 10 years passed quickly!
I can't believe this thread is still going!!

There's no way I'll be re-reading from the start but it seems there's still value/interest in the wisdom provided by Fti

I'm just about to get back into trading so I thought I'd pop in for a look and a refresher.

Cheers,
Mick
  • #57,804
  • Oct 21, 2017 12:00am Oct 21, 2017 12:00am
For me, technical analysis means my Price Action trading knowledge! On the other hand, I also use my news trading knowledge! I seem, it’s very important to follow both kind of analysis into trading! Only technical or fundamental is not enough here!
  • #57,805
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:07am Oct 22, 2017 1:07am
Quoting GoldenFinger
{image} {image} Seems like a good opportunity to make money, bookies try to make market in things they are unfamiliar, look at the odds, low risk high return can even catch them in black swan event like how george soros correctly predicted the decrease in interest rate, the odds is just too good. {image}
hey mate, you are way way out of the topic, if you are making a mockery of this thread please stop it and kindly remove your previous post ASAP, it is offensive and misleading.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #57,806
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:09am Oct 22, 2017 1:09am
Quoting NeilWagner
For me, technical analysis means my Price Action trading knowledge! On the other hand, I also use my news trading knowledge! I seem, it’s very important to follow both kind of analysis into trading! Only technical or fundamental is not enough here!

you better read the thread first before sharing your opinion!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #57,807
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:28am Oct 23, 2017 1:28am
Dear FTI & Friends,

It was my honour to learn the teachings/guidance of the great master.

Just to want say thank you for everything given and taught selflessly.

And thanks to all friends who is maintaining this thread.

Rgds,
NT
  • #57,808
  • Edited 4:27am Oct 24, 2017 3:58am | Edited 4:27am
I have often asked FTI why does he go on about the feel in the thread and not just say trade with trend and that is that. (missin my man FTI - hope ok)

Think I now understand why (thanks to Jupiter...): doh bit slow here - when we learn we have no memory maps/models to work away from - well not many and maybe some bad ones for trading.

So at start of our journey we need to be given concrete stuff eg some golden rules (prevent us killing ourselves), some guidelines and patterns, money management stuff that type of thing - this is like being given the basic steps in a rumba - but that does not mean we can dance the rumba well if at all - we need to put them into practice and refine and refine and study to get what works best for us and to gain a more nuanced understanding of market moves and build up: if then else type models.

The more we do this - working away from our rules/patterns/guidelines/if then... the more we internalise it and learn from the market - building our abstract memory models/maps which we use subconsciously as we trade. Memory maps need constant tweaking and care. We are always learning and the market evolves.

Think that is what FTI means by feel. Of course we need to get some good rules/patterns/guidelines etc from this thread and by study of the greats to work away from- keep what works and drop what is bad.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,809
  • Nov 9, 2017 6:32pm Nov 9, 2017 6:32pm
trying to understanding what master FTI teach on rule 1. preservation capital 2. look rule number 1
is
don't ever think need a time to think, what we need is adequate power to always able manuver mobilize and achieve victory, not only win one battle
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #57,810
  • Nov 21, 2017 9:27am Nov 21, 2017 9:27am
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Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,811
  • Nov 27, 2017 1:46am Nov 27, 2017 1:46am
Ten years has passed, what an amazing thread. Has anyone heard from fti?
  • #57,812
  • Nov 27, 2017 3:28am Nov 27, 2017 3:28am
Quoting Zoran
Ten years has passed, what an amazing thread. Has anyone heard from fti?
No - missing him terribly (his sense of fun and vitality of spirit) - just hope he is in peace wherever that may be. FTI

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,813
  • Dec 4, 2017 12:13am Dec 4, 2017 12:13am
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Hopefully wherever FTI is, he is having fun.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,814
  • Dec 4, 2017 3:46am Dec 4, 2017 3:46am
Quoting GoldenFinger
Ok, after reviewing all my mistakes I have revised some of my mo. After some deep thinking, I think there are 3MM that are viable I can use to tackle the market. Cut and flip, Cut and reenter, Rescue.
you never know how far the price can go.
  • #57,815
  • Dec 9, 2017 3:11am Dec 9, 2017 3:11am
Quoting warbee
{quote} you never know how far the price can go.
Hello Warbee,

As far as I'm concerned, you are right. Only those who create the market, manipulate it and able to truly move the price, they are supposed to know.
Not the FX Industry Sharks but just a broker is able to create, manipulate and move it for some 50 - 200 pips that would differ from all the others in extreme volatility cases as, e.g., with cable last year. Then, 5 - 20 pips difference is a norm with spikes, my night hours, over week-ends, etc. I'm following the price/ spread diversity from one to another of my brokers as 15 - 30 pips. It's a part of our Market Knowledge.

As for retailers, I like this by FTI: "...every click or order you put is going to be a risk... in fact every trade I take, I already assume is a wrong decision...".

The above indicated might somehow be related to the Terrain reading point, and to continue: "My charts they don't have my stiring wheel. I have it. My charts only tell me what kinda terrains I'm navigating and what kinda retards are on the grounds".

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,816
  • Dec 9, 2017 4:13am Dec 9, 2017 4:13am
[quote=Exnav;10575587]{quote} "My charts they don't have my stiring wheel.
stiring wheel? maybe steering wheel !
Don't wait for the wind, take to the oars.
  • #57,817
  • Dec 9, 2017 4:36am Dec 9, 2017 4:36am
Quoting Exnav
in fact every trade I take, I already assume is a wrong decision...".
Its the exact opposite trading fundamentally. Every trade has a fundamental reason behind a move and that gives a level of confidence that cannot be obtained through technical analysis. Personally, I would rather be confident than expect failure.
  • #57,818
  • Dec 9, 2017 4:44am Dec 9, 2017 4:44am
[quote=Pleiadian;10575676]
Quoting Exnav
{quote} stiring wheel? maybe steering wheel !
Hello Pleiadian,

Thank you for your observant specification. It's my fault that I commenced with trying to actually mis-correcting an orginal text. What matters more, is your (my) trader's mindset. Otherwise, we should recognize and understand it properly. The TAF book is indeed written in a kind of English. Personally, I like it but I don't only learn the language here.

Here's the original' copy: //infact every trade i take, i already assume is a wrong decision. i leave the proving that its correct by the marketmakers... My charts they don't have stiring wheel. I have it. My charts only tells me what kinda terrains i navigating and what kinda retards are on the grounds.//

I'm sorry for not providing the original or/ and pertinent reference to it in my post.

This is another relevant instance for the trader's mindset (TAF, Post No 37673):
"In fact my friend.
everyone is wrong. i err lots too.
but we try best practises not to be too far off to the extreme wrong end (absolute rigidity)and get punished for it.
All sinned come short of the glory."

Enjoy your trading, Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,819
  • Dec 9, 2017 4:57am Dec 9, 2017 4:57am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Its the exact opposite trading fundamentally. Every trade has a fundamental reason behind a move and that gives a level of confidence that cannot be obtained through technical analysis. Personally, I would rather be confident than expect failure.

Surely, when you push a trigger, you're certain that you hit the target. Otherwise, it's the FX Industry or more skilful who are always targeting you and waiting for your triggering.
Your confidence is also as I might refer to FTI: "Need balls to play stuff. no balls no tee off". "Try be like me. Incurruptible, neaver greedy and never afraid.maybe sometimes. when necessary. Normally if greddy , sure stomack upset." No text's correction applied by me.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,820
  • Dec 9, 2017 7:22am Dec 9, 2017 7:22am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Surely, when you push a trigger, you're certain that you hit the target. Otherwise, it's the FX Industry or more skilful who are always targeting you and waiting for your triggering. Your confidence is also as I might refer to FTI: "Need balls to play stuff. no balls no tee off". "Try be like me. Incurruptible, neaver greedy and never afraid.maybe sometimes. when necessary. Normally if greddy , sure stomack upset." No text's correction applied by me.

I have absolutely no idea what you are waffling on about.
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