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The Swamp

  • #11,941
  • Nov 18, 2017 10:54am Nov 18, 2017 10:54am
Quoting gatorinla
missed my day close.. the highest is still 1798.. the week highest now 1793.. the month still 1809.. that's probably why its bouncing around it. week higher close suggests the high will be tested.. even so, it dont mean it won't test 1760 again.. the month has yet to be beat or rejected. if it closes a 1/2 h above 1846.. it may break higher.. i still expect 1880 or more... the month is not helping..
Prolly Going DOWN to 1760, If it breaks Thursday's LOW then will prolly go DOWN to 1706
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #11,942
  • Edited Nov 19, 2017 7:27am Nov 18, 2017 11:05am | Edited Nov 19, 2017 7:27am
On 11/14/2017 COT report, we see big boys increased Euro long 18,668, and also added shorts 19,557,
Long exposure 63% vs short exposure 37%, which 2% decreased in longs and 2% increased in shorts from previous week
Net positions( long) decreased from previous week 85k to 84k
My thought:
from 11/8 to 11/14, price traveled from 1579 low on 11/8 to 1805 high on 11/14, I think those long positions they held on 11/14 were already in the money, they might just put on the short positions towards the end
Now not in the report, on 11/15, when price hit 1860, the weekly supply zone, we experinced 70 pips drop to 1790s,I think it was the big boys who unwinded their longs which were already deep in the money..
My question is what are they going to do with the shorts positions 19k they just added on 14th report? , currently at the money, do you think they will let Euro go up whille they can be out of the money? .
I have some doubt but we will soon find out next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT 11142017.png Size: 32 KB
  • #11,943
  • Nov 18, 2017 12:23pm Nov 18, 2017 12:23pm
They can handle a 100 pip draw down..and they are not always right.
  • #11,944
  • Nov 18, 2017 2:25pm Nov 18, 2017 2:25pm
Quoting Venomousssss
They can handle a 100 pip draw down..and they are not always right.
Maybe instead of saying ' big boys', I should have said ' institutions'... they are the ones who run the market.. since they added the shorts positions makes me to think there could be more downside soon. but why knows..we have to wait to see..
  • #11,945
  • Nov 19, 2017 8:42am Nov 19, 2017 8:42am
Hope we are all ready for another great week..enjoy the epic music..
Inserted Video
  • #11,946
  • Edited 8:03pm Nov 19, 2017 4:41pm | Edited 8:03pm
Sorry I was early... didn't know it could fall 30 pips in 15 mins,,.. that sudden.. update H1
using 6pm the closing price

Euro On 11/19/2017 at 6pm est. the system: update for H1 and H4
H1, downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1814, Running Period: 1 hour
H4, uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1754, Running Period: 39x H4
Daily, downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1805, Running Period: 41 days
  • #11,947
  • Nov 19, 2017 5:33pm Nov 19, 2017 5:33pm
Quoting Boulder
Sorry I was early... didn't know it could fall 30 pips in 15 mins,,.. that sudden.. update H1 using 6pm the closing price Euro On 11/19/2017 at 6pm est. the system: update for H1 and H4 H1, downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1814, Running Period: 20 hours H4, uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1754, Running Period: 39x H4 Daily, downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1805, Running Period: 41 days
we have to wait to see H4 can close below 1754, pretty much we can tell the H4 downtrend has already started ...
  • #11,948
  • Nov 19, 2017 5:42pm Nov 19, 2017 5:42pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} we have to wait to see H4 can close below 1754, pretty much we can tell the H4 downtrend has already started ...
Any idea what caused this? Quite a sell-off.
  • #11,949
  • Nov 19, 2017 5:43pm Nov 19, 2017 5:43pm
1723 right here is my number

Good luck everyone !
  • #11,950
  • Nov 19, 2017 5:46pm Nov 19, 2017 5:46pm
Quoting Happy_Sniper
{quote} Any idea what caused this? Quite a sell-off.
News from twitter..
Merkel's attempt to forge a coalition falters. FDP walks out...
Merkel's "Jamaica Coalition" Collapses;
  • #11,951
  • Nov 19, 2017 5:51pm Nov 19, 2017 5:51pm
Quoting Angelina
1723 right here is my number Good luck everyone !
Girl, we are almost the same again on price.....I just covered small position of my shorts at 1726.....
be careful of longs.. don't catch a falling knife..
  • #11,952
  • Edited 6:10pm Nov 19, 2017 5:58pm | Edited 6:10pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Girl, we are almost the same again on price.....I just covered small position of my shorts at 1726..... be careful of longs.. don't catch a falling knife..
You got 150pips + DD for that trade?
Dont worry for my long, I have my deadline line as sl
I dont catch the falling knife. Just wana catch the thunder lightning !
it could go either way 19ish or 14ish. I want 19ish thou !

Longed at 1723 ! Will close some at 177ish and the rest will be above 19ish (wishing lol)

Quoting Angelina
1723 right here is my number Good luck everyone !
Attached Image
  • #11,953
  • Edited 6:40pm Nov 19, 2017 6:04pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting Angelina
{quote} You got 150pips + DD for that trade? Dont worry for my long, I have my deadline line as sl it could go either way 19ish or 14ish. I want 19ish thou !
If day can close below 1690, we will have chance to see 14ish.. we have to wait to see.. ..
First step, i need this H4 closes below 1754 by H4 close...
  • #11,954
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:07pm Nov 19, 2017 6:07pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} If day can close below 1690, we will have chance to see 14ish.. we have to wait to see.. ..
Are you still holding short?
Lets see !
  • #11,955
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:11pm Nov 19, 2017 6:11pm
Quoting Angelina
{quote} Are you still holding short? Lets see !
I am not competing with you, hope you know that.... good luck with your trades.... I think we both will make money in this...
  • #11,956
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:16pm Nov 19, 2017 6:16pm
Sometimes I really don't like US first In and First Out rule.. you non US traders are so lucky with no rules.. we US traders are not allowed to hedge, also the close has to be first in first out...
  • #11,957
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:19pm Nov 19, 2017 6:19pm
my stops were hit.. placed a new one 1708x.. just above 1705/06
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #11,958
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:22pm Nov 19, 2017 6:22pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I am not competing with you, hope you know that.... good luck with your trades.... I think we both will make money in this...
Just asking if you are holding short or not. That was the question, not mean anything else!
and of course, we trade what we see hihi !

Good luck with your trade too!
  • #11,959
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:23pm Nov 19, 2017 6:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
my stops were hit.. placed a new one 1708x.. just above 1705/06
Gator.. have you consider shorts? if so, what price will make you to short this? since I just closed some positions. I am waiting to enter more shorts later...
I did add one at 1760 before the fall.. I guess I will add more shorts if it can go back to 1770s
  • #11,960
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:31pm Nov 19, 2017 6:31pm
Quoting Angelina
{quote} Just asking if you are holding short or not. That was the question, not mean anything else! and of course, we trade what we see hihi ! Good luck with your trade too!
I have been holding shorts from 1650s to 1830s.. .. they were my bad trades before.. not followed my system..,, glad i have this opportunity to close some with profits...
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