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Diary of a Trader - "18 years and counting"

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 17, 2017 4:45am Nov 17, 2017 4:45am
The purpose of this thread is more of a reflection and for others that are struggling, the path of success can be a long and painful road, however it is worth it. Comments and questions are welcomed. I would ask we are all adults and to be respectful to each other. Shall we begin? .
  • #2
  • Nov 17, 2017 5:32am Nov 17, 2017 5:32am
My style of trading has evolved into focusing on institutional sentiment. Market sentiment is much like what some consider the “Middle child Syndrome”. Fundamental and technical analysis are rule based meaning 2+2=4. If fundamental news is good prices should increase or If the technical are showing overbought, prices should drop. In a perfect trading environment both these analyses would work every time. However, there are days when 2+2=3 and others 2+2=5. It does not make sense, but that is how sentiment works.

Following institutional activity is what drive prices. Not indicators, fundamentals, or Central Bankers., however they can be the catalyst to start something.
  • #3
  • Nov 17, 2017 5:38am Nov 17, 2017 5:38am
Quoting XxixixX
The purpose of this thread is more of a reflection and for others that are struggling, the path of success can be a long and painful road, however it is worth it. Comments and questions are welcomed. I would ask we are all adults and to be respectful to each other. Shall we begin? .
18 years of trading is a life, thanks for sharing your experience. Let's begin then
POW!
  • #4
  • Nov 17, 2017 5:41am Nov 17, 2017 5:41am
hello. how do you define 'sentiment'
  • #5
  • Nov 17, 2017 5:43am Nov 17, 2017 5:43am
Subs. Thanks and
Regards
  • #6
  • Nov 17, 2017 5:44am Nov 17, 2017 5:44am
After 18 yeas tell me are you in the green or black. Thanks and
Regards
  • #7
  • Nov 17, 2017 6:24am Nov 17, 2017 6:24am
Quoting feline207
hello. how do you define 'sentiment'
For an intra-day basis look at an hourly chart.

The sentiment i am concerned on a has to do with institutions activity, retails does not move prices it is institutional that do. In the hourly chart below you see the engulfing candle that is larger by all the other candlesticks. Dialing down to a 15 minute chart we see that throughout this hrly candle institutional buyers were in force.

I always start with a small position because I have been wrong in the past and will be wrong in the future so that way if things do not work out, I exit with a small loss, however if the trend continues, I will add to the position (as much as 10 - 15 times) as that trend is unfolding. Its called pyramiding or stacking which is not a new concept however even with some small loses, my winners can be 10,20 or 50 fold.

As a they say "An elephant cannot hide its footsteps"
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  • #8
  • Nov 17, 2017 6:25am Nov 17, 2017 6:25am
Quoting goodways100
After 18 yeas tell me are you in the green or black. Thanks and Regards
After about 12 years, have been in the green. It is when I stopped focusing solely on technicals and fundamentals, that things started to change.
  • #9
  • Nov 17, 2017 6:49am Nov 17, 2017 6:49am
Fundamental analysis is often the catalyst to start things much like having the right ingredients to bake a cake. Case in point look at the data yesterday 11/16/17 (Forex Factory Calendar) with regards to the British Pound (Retail Sales) Prior was -0.7%, forecast was for improvement at .1%. The street is expecting to see improvement to begin with. The number came in at .3% much better that what the street was expecting and such institutions found favor and drove prices up pretty much the entire day.

So for example today 11/17: We have some USD housing data Building Permits. Prior and forecast are very similar so the street is expecting pretty much the same results. If this number deviates either below or above we may see one side (Buyers or Sellers step in) and push prices a certain direction. Another aspect I look at is the range the number is expected to come in at. If the number is outside the range it can also added further fuel for the buyers or sellers to step in.

Keep in mind I wait for institutions to show their footprint, once the news breaks, usually at the top of the hour. Institutions typically run in cycles and not all at once. the other aspect is I always start with a small position so if I am wrong (which I have been in the past and will be in the future) I will exit with a small lose. This allows me to sleep at night and just wait for the next bus to come along.
  • #10
  • Nov 17, 2017 7:22am Nov 17, 2017 7:22am
What lot size is your small, and what is big. Do you martingale. Thanks and
Reards
  • #11
  • Nov 17, 2017 7:49am Nov 17, 2017 7:49am
Quoting goodways100
What lot size is your small, and what is big. Do you martingale. Thanks and Reards
Since most of my trades are based on starting small, the most at risk is 1/4 of 1% of risk. I usually never add to a losing position, if I am wrong I am wrong and will exit and look for the next setup. Once you start trading for clients, preservation of ports is everything. I have have been down that road of "Hope" so many times only to have it come to a dead end. Personally those traders that I known over the years (stopped counting after 50) that traded martindale, everyone blew up their accounts in the end and never came back. After so many years you see a similar personality pattern with these types of traders. If you cannot admit you are wrong than your letting Greed get in the way of your judgment, imho.
  • #12
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:08am Nov 17, 2017 11:08am
On 14/11/17 why did not you use engulfing on audjpy. Does the engulfing work only on eu. What time frame you trade. What % success do you get with engulfing. Thanks and
Regards
  • #13
  • Nov 17, 2017 9:44pm Nov 17, 2017 9:44pm
hi ,
i have been hovering over this thread since it was started and have decided to jump in.. I fear i shall regret it..
sorry if i bore you all here

I too have been doing this for more years than i care to remember. My first year in financial markets was the year of the plaza accord. So 1985. (yes, im 50+).
i spent the first 7 years working in the banking industry and since have been trading professionally in a firm that does purely trading (i cant bring myself to use the term hedge fund). And i still there.

Im not sure why im on this forum but it came to be because an old friend was thinking about starting fx trading. He came to see me about it and told me had been reading this forum. I started reading it and i just couldn't help myself.

Most things in life i comment on i know nothing about and just seeing what i can get away with. The trading space?.. ye, i know the space. Please understand that in no way am i suggesting that i have some sort of holy grail. or that i know some special formula.. I could only wish.

But like xxixixx, i probably have some reasonable insights into trading stuff.
  • #14
  • Nov 17, 2017 10:24pm Nov 17, 2017 10:24pm
Let's be brutally honest and tell us your income with forex trading after 18 years..
  • #15
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:31pm Nov 17, 2017 11:31pm
Quoting goodways100
On 14/11/17 why did not you use engulfing on audjpy. Does the engulfing work only on eu. What time frame you trade. What % success do you get with engulfing. Thanks and Regards
Let me expand how I view intraday sentiment. Using a combination of things: First I am looking at major fundamental news worthy events of the day. Review the information and get am idea of what the street is expecting. Once the news breaks compare the actual to the forecast, prior and how that numbers falls within that range vs. what the street was expecting. I will wait usually anywhere from 15-60 minutes to see price behavior. I look at currecncy index charts (I klnow sonmeone will ask so here is the site: https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools...-index#c_index. This coveres the broad base of the currecncy base rather than just view one pair as this can be skewed. I will also have all the charts that are currency based up and also watching its behavior (are they all moving in sync?). The engulfing portion is the last thing I am looking at. As a trader starting out I always view techncails only and these days it is the last thing I look at.
  • #16
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:32pm Nov 17, 2017 11:32pm
Quoting goodways100
After 18 yeas tell me are you in the green or black. Thanks and Regards
What does it mean to be "in the green"? Don't you instead mean "in the red"?
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #17
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:32pm Nov 17, 2017 11:32pm
Quoting mollyellie
hi , i have been hovering over this thread since it was started and have decided to jump in.. I fear i shall regret it.. sorry if i bore you all here I too have been doing this for more years than i care to remember. My first year in financial markets was the year of the plaza accord. So 1985. (yes, im 50+). i spent the first 7 years working in the banking industry and since have been trading professionally in a firm that does purely trading (i cant bring myself to use the term hedge fund). And i still there. Im not sure why im on this forum but...
Please share your thoughts.
  • #18
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:35pm Nov 17, 2017 11:35pm
Quoting Mingary
Let's be brutally honest and tell us your income with forex trading after 18 years..
I make enough to go to the movies and get the extra large popcorn with extra butter which cost .50 more
  • #19
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:43pm Nov 17, 2017 11:43pm
Quoting mollyellie
hi , i have been hovering over this thread since it was started and have decided to jump in.. I fear i shall regret it.. sorry if i bore you all here I too have been doing this for more years than i care to remember. My first year in financial markets was the year of the plaza accord. So 1985. (yes, im 50+). i spent the first 7 years working in the banking industry and since have been trading professionally in a firm that does purely trading (i cant bring myself to use the term hedge fund). And i still there. Im not sure why im on this forum but...
mollyellie,

Please don't be offended or take this the wrong way, but I didn't understand what the main point of your post was suppose to be.
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #20
  • Nov 17, 2017 11:53pm Nov 17, 2017 11:53pm
yes..i kind of thought that .. after i posted it!!.... well, it wasnt to try and blow my own trumpet.....i think what i have have been reading so far in so many posts is that to many people not understanding the foreign exchange market place...That understanding is absolutely crucial before heading down this road...i suppose the point was, that im pretty sure im well credentialed to answer those types of questions..
but yes..your point taken and i shall bugger off
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