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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #5,681
  • Nov 7, 2017 3:16pm Nov 7, 2017 3:16pm
I'm very interested in catching trades in weekly zones (like recent UCAD off demand and AUDUSD off supply) and letting these run, also sensibly adding to positions on pullbacks to H4 trend supply zones (or engulfings with trend).

I had a day of scalping EU M5 last week and my reactions and timings were completely off, so decided it was time to knock it on the head.
  • #5,682
  • Nov 8, 2017 9:30am Nov 8, 2017 9:30am
Quoting C-12
I'm very interested in catching trades in weekly zones (like recent UCAD off demand and AUDUSD off supply) and letting these run, also sensibly adding to positions on pullbacks to H4 trend supply zones (or engulfings with trend). I had a day of scalping EU M5 last week and my reactions and timings were completely off, so decided it was time to knock it on the head.
I'm not sure what the advantage is to go that high in time frames. When you trade 4h you risk for example 2% and aim for 8%. On the weekly you do the same and it's true that you earn more pips but on the other hand your pip value is smaller. In the end the outcome is the same you lose 2% or you win 8% of your account. On the weekly the spread is even more negligible than on the 4h but on the 4h you'll get more entry opportunities in the same period of time. The biggest advantage of the weekly is that you can work and trade at the same time.

Btw I can't believe I missed the nice second leg down of the Geppy move
  • #5,683
  • Edited 2:53pm Nov 9, 2017 12:08pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting MCFly
{quote} I'm not sure what the advantage is to go that high in time frames. When you trade 4h you risk for example 2% and aim for 8%. On the weekly you do the same and it's true that you earn more pips but on the other hand your pip value is smaller. In the end the outcome is the same you lose 2% or you win 8% of your account. On the weekly the spread is even more negligible than on the 4h but on the 4h you'll get more entry opportunities in the same period of time. The biggest advantage of the weekly is that you can work and trade at the same time....
Yeah will have to play around with it, really had enough of all out scalps. Maybe some multi day mini swings on H4/M30 in between the longer term plays when they form.

This UJ short was really all H4 but PA on M30.. Now in a H4 demand but looks like it might eventually be a breaker. Scalped a couple of buys off it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,684
  • Edited 2:54pm Nov 9, 2017 12:24pm | Edited 2:54pm
And UCAD, similar but again.. PA mostly revealed itself on H4. You probably want H4 in view at all times.

Would have liked to have picked the zone higher up last week but these are good addon style trades.
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  • #5,685
  • Nov 9, 2017 12:53pm Nov 9, 2017 12:53pm
Got a bit of EU as well. Really not sure if we'll take out this zone or not..

The entries were based on H4 demand established with PA and M30 bullish PA once formed.
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  • #5,686
  • Nov 9, 2017 4:25pm Nov 9, 2017 4:25pm
Kiwi at an important area here on H4 with a nice looking zone on H1 hiding just above. This could set up a possible continuation short but we're going against the daily atm.

If we take out this supply convincingly then will be looking to buy pullbacks.
  • #5,687
  • Nov 10, 2017 10:38am Nov 10, 2017 10:38am
Pretty clean setup on gold.
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  • #5,688
  • Nov 10, 2017 11:13am Nov 10, 2017 11:13am
Similar on AU.
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  • #5,689
  • Nov 10, 2017 3:55pm Nov 10, 2017 3:55pm
Not sure why but got a funny feeling EU is going to gap down heavily out this supply level.. Either that or we get a slight spike above this high.

Must be a lot of weary head n shoulders shorterz out there feeling some pain right now.
  • #5,690
  • Nov 11, 2017 9:43am Nov 11, 2017 9:43am
Hi,
Stevepatt postet an interessting video here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10483534

Maybe someone else like it too.
  • #5,691
  • Edited 12:21pm Nov 12, 2017 10:49am | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting MCFly
Hi, Stevepatt postet an interessting video here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10483534 Maybe someone else like it too.
Interesting stuff, although the guy was pretty dull to listen to.

I would go as far to say that the biggest players in the market are literally painting the charts. They create the patterns that suck everyone in and then stitch em all up.... usually when the news events break.

The easiest pray are breakout traders and those with stop orders around those highs / lows.

Just look at the recent GU action on the H4 chart, every time price breaks a swing point, it then reverses as price is trapped in between two SD zones.
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  • #5,692
  • Nov 12, 2017 10:56am Nov 12, 2017 10:56am
That GU chart must be seriously confusing to people if they've never come across S&D levels before.
  • #5,693
  • Nov 13, 2017 1:57am Nov 13, 2017 1:57am
Good morning,
100 years ago Richard Wyckoff already analyzed this kind of institutional game plan. Seems like some things never change. The difficult part is to participate and not to become a victim of these "smart money" tactics.
  • #5,694
  • Nov 13, 2017 2:57pm Nov 13, 2017 2:57pm
Quoting MCFly
Good morning, 100 years ago Richard Wyckoff already analyzed this kind of institutional game plan. Seems like some things never change. The difficult part is to participate and not to become a victim of these "smart money" tactics.
I guess the main thing is not trading breakouts or placing the stop right behind a swing high / low.

One of the main challenges (with S&D) is those big rally base drops with huge RR potential tend to require a stop just beyond the zone.

If you pull up a chart of EURAUD you'll see that kind of level we're approaching right now on H1.
  • #5,695
  • Nov 13, 2017 4:47pm Nov 13, 2017 4:47pm
Talking of Aussie...

Still waiting for EU to tank. Might have another 12 hours to wait until talking heads open their mouths...
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  • #5,696
  • Nov 14, 2017 2:19pm Nov 14, 2017 2:19pm
Hope somebody caught that ride up on the Euro today!
  • #5,697
  • Nov 14, 2017 2:41pm Nov 14, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting jack411
Hope somebody caught that ride up on the Euro today!
Yeah, that was pretty impressive. I had a short order at 1.17 before i left for work with a 10 pip stop that got blown out.

In hindsight, the H4 PA was a screaming buy. As Simon mentioned yesterday, we'd already established a daily demand zone.

If sat at home, once that level was cleanly taken out then hitting the buy button was no brainer.

As for where we go from here, DX is sat in a demand zone so I wouldn't want to be buying EU here. If we get a pullback then we can see what PA brings for another leg up.
  • #5,698
  • Nov 14, 2017 2:49pm Nov 14, 2017 2:49pm
There was an M15 zone hiding out in the yellow rectangle area. Just above the swing high. It seemed ripe for a stitch up.

But look the H4 PA.. That's what needed to be fully focused on.

This is a GMT chart.
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  • #5,699
  • Nov 14, 2017 2:54pm Nov 14, 2017 2:54pm
Anyway, not sure what I'm doing putting on limit orders. It's not in my plan or usual strategy which is H4 HTF and M30/M15 PA...

There was a nice setup on USDCHF earlier that should have been on the radar...

These two time frames do stack well together. You can set the pairs up as profiles and skim through them until you see the right PA config.
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  • #5,700
  • Nov 14, 2017 3:57pm Nov 14, 2017 3:57pm
Quoting C-12
There was an M15 zone hiding out in the yellow rectangle area. Just above the swing high. It seemed ripe for a stitch up. But look the H4 PA.. That's what needed to be fully focused on. This is a GMT chart. {image}
I am waiting for short @~.1820
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