Disliked{quote} It's possible to reduce both the sell and buy pattern into an arrow alert indicator. This makes it more precise and consistent in application minus any arbitrary subjective analysis. {image}Ignored
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Can you trade only one pattern and be profitable?
- #42
- Nov 6, 2017 1:45am Nov 6, 2017 1:45am
- | Joined Apr 2017 | Status: 38737526 / 29052019 | 1,245 Posts
{quote} I clearly did not see 1234 sell pattern but a buy 123 patternIronically I call them 123 pattern
, they tend to form around potential support areas. I was looking for a context where I could trade this pattern and variations of it with a success rate of 60% and above. The only way I realized where I could achieve that, was to find a "context" And your 2nd chance strategy along with breakout - I had my "aha" moment. God knows if that will be something that I could rely on in the long run..
{image} {image}
Market is not random but unpredictable
- #43
- Edited 3:09am Nov 6, 2017 2:52am | Edited 3:09am
- | Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 3,404 Posts
{quote} Yes, that’s what I meant by “2nd-chance” ... same direction after the first pullback if the pattern isn’t flipped ...
another "aha" moment
thank you !
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Yes, you very well can as long as you study the right setup to put into practice you unique strategy.
For instance, I have randomly taken a weekly chart of a random currency. I have marked many of its 0.618 retracements.
You will see the first time price is reaching that specific retracement level, it reverses to a certain exent.
The chart's time span is 4 complete years and the currency is not precisely one major one.
Even if markets have randomness, they are not random in my opinion, but chaotic. In this example, if I define a formula that enters a market in the opposite direction when price retraces about 61.8%, I will get relatively significant reversals at that very area. This is not random at all and it would allow me to exploit one single rule.
With this I am not saying, "always enter at 0.618", but take a look at your charts and find repeteable patterns.
Ehem, I draw the arrows after the circles, so it is possible that the initial arrow of any retracement is not the right one, but it must be a later price level. What is correct is that every red circle corresponds to a first 0.618 retacement level.
For instance, I have randomly taken a weekly chart of a random currency. I have marked many of its 0.618 retracements.
You will see the first time price is reaching that specific retracement level, it reverses to a certain exent.
The chart's time span is 4 complete years and the currency is not precisely one major one.
Even if markets have randomness, they are not random in my opinion, but chaotic. In this example, if I define a formula that enters a market in the opposite direction when price retraces about 61.8%, I will get relatively significant reversals at that very area. This is not random at all and it would allow me to exploit one single rule.
With this I am not saying, "always enter at 0.618", but take a look at your charts and find repeteable patterns.
Ehem, I draw the arrows after the circles, so it is possible that the initial arrow of any retracement is not the right one, but it must be a later price level. What is correct is that every red circle corresponds to a first 0.618 retacement level.
NO.
Take many samples of studying,any two candle data sets or whatever you choose.
Point a to b and measure how many times price pauses and where it lands in between those two points. Freeze it and take it to a lab. This is where the mindset of delusion kicks in.
You see in gambling, 100% of it relies on your monkey brain to perceive it as hit or miss scenario. Aw shucks, I was SO close. This is potent stuff. Because you can take all variables in those two points and find out, that if you had a disciplined system that measured a safe spot of risk ... say something arbitrary like a 50% retrace. Almost all of the data in reality would be missing 50% by just a little bit(enough), or by a long shot.
Now with these odds looking like that, how many actually think any pattern would help? It's entirely the same concept.
If you miss just by a fraction of 1%. That's 1% of your money plus transaction costs that is taken from you. This also affects entry "I missed an opportunity of 500 pips because it retraced to 49% only".
Now say you hunt for this skewed 50% scenario. It'll play out the same way as I explained, because if you take ANY two points to measure from you'll mostly whiff your idea. There's no statistical reliability, unless you see it as "most opportunities in reality don't show up because I see them so."
You'll also grow up to understand just how neutral all opportunities really are, and how all decisions are more along the same.
You're a god when things go your way, people will clamor and rave about how much of a genius you're. But you take that exact same scenario and fail, and people tend to go away.
Take many samples of studying,any two candle data sets or whatever you choose.
Point a to b and measure how many times price pauses and where it lands in between those two points. Freeze it and take it to a lab. This is where the mindset of delusion kicks in.
You see in gambling, 100% of it relies on your monkey brain to perceive it as hit or miss scenario. Aw shucks, I was SO close. This is potent stuff. Because you can take all variables in those two points and find out, that if you had a disciplined system that measured a safe spot of risk ... say something arbitrary like a 50% retrace. Almost all of the data in reality would be missing 50% by just a little bit(enough), or by a long shot.
Now with these odds looking like that, how many actually think any pattern would help? It's entirely the same concept.
If you miss just by a fraction of 1%. That's 1% of your money plus transaction costs that is taken from you. This also affects entry "I missed an opportunity of 500 pips because it retraced to 49% only".
Now say you hunt for this skewed 50% scenario. It'll play out the same way as I explained, because if you take ANY two points to measure from you'll mostly whiff your idea. There's no statistical reliability, unless you see it as "most opportunities in reality don't show up because I see them so."
You'll also grow up to understand just how neutral all opportunities really are, and how all decisions are more along the same.
You're a god when things go your way, people will clamor and rave about how much of a genius you're. But you take that exact same scenario and fail, and people tend to go away.
- #56
- Apr 25, 2019 12:32am Apr 25, 2019 12:32am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Gone | 1,106 Posts
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
Look a basic pattern, then 1.618 AB extension from point C, so that in terms of length CD = 1.618AB.
You can pick any random stock here https://raybb.github.io/random-stock-picker/ and find a few ones that develop these kind of pattern which is very common one.
I have taken a couple random tickers and the second one was showing harmonic behavior. The candle closed above the 1.618 then it is a support probably. The candle closes below it, then it may be a resistance and we can expect a level retest from below and enter short then. These kind of concepts can be analyzed and explored to learn how to exploit one single pattern.
You can pick any random stock here https://raybb.github.io/random-stock-picker/ and find a few ones that develop these kind of pattern which is very common one.
I have taken a couple random tickers and the second one was showing harmonic behavior. The candle closed above the 1.618 then it is a support probably. The candle closes below it, then it may be a resistance and we can expect a level retest from below and enter short then. These kind of concepts can be analyzed and explored to learn how to exploit one single pattern.
