The ART of trading by Petar_Serbia

Hello there,
Just idea for intraday play > GBP/USD did successful rejection from pivot resistance and on market profile, I found potential selling tail for today and weak lows in the background. Bearish opportunities are preferable.

Potential profit levels 1.3082, 1.3056 and 1.3032.

Intraday update >
GBP/USD broke upward channel and according to profile there is room for testing of POC and swing low > Watch for potential re-test of 1.3095 - 1.3055 >

Hello there,
Just small update on EUR/USD intraday. I found evening star formation at pivot resistance 3. According to market profile, there is selling tail in J period.

Hello there,
The interesting situation on EUR/USD. I see a potential short day on EUR/USD. I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high in the background. There is also a strong POC In the background and rejection today together with the weak double distribution day from yesterday. Watch for potential selling.

TP's 1.1610, 1.1595 and 1.1580

Short EURUSD at 20MA 1.1677, love to see this get below and close below the 1.1640 today.

In my opinion, EUR/USD got a good chance for ending of upward correction. I saw corrective upward channel and strong supply cluster. On futures market, EUR got weakness in recent days and there is no professional interest for a higher price on this currency. I still hold my short term sell from last week.

I have been selling all probes higher this week. Risk on/Risk Off

Hi Petar,

Can I get your take on USDJPY?



I see the daily resistance seems to be holding up, but price has not reacted too much by selling off it. Would this still look bullish in the longer term time frame?

Hello, jhehe,
I will stay away now from USD/JPY since it is not so good for position trading. USD/JPY is in my opinion in neutral-bullish mode. The trend is definitely bullish but the other factors are not good fundamentally for rising and smart money awaiting new fundamental information for pot the initial position. Speeches of Kuroda in next period may give more clues for smart money. Right now weak traders are in control of this currency pair. Technical picture looks also bullish to neutral. Lets call it on this way. Momentum is neutral but the trend is bullish. Last week profile looks weak on the downside with few clear anomalies together with standard analysis where the price is trading above 24 and 50 SMA. The price is actually testing 24SMA.

Speaking of levels. Watch for inside bar mother candle levels. Resistance at 114.07 and support at 112.97. Potential strength is building but patience is required. Upward targets potential at 114.73 and 115.50.

Hope I helped you

EUR/USD intraday update >
I found potential toping activity on EUR/USD near the level of 1.1670. I marked letters on the chart and here is explanation > I observed 6E EUR/USD futures chart >

a - Wide spread of the bar closing on the top of the bar in an ultra-high volume (Buying climax)
b - Down bar closing on the low in a very high volume. If there was strong buying on the previous bar, how the next bar can close on the low and with very high volume, It must be a weakness.
c - The narrow spread of the bar closing in the middle with a low volume. No demand - no professional interest for higher prices.
d - Supply in a high volume just after the no demand (no demand confirmed)

According to market profile, there is weak opening on the NY session and possible rotation. Notice that sellers did a rotation on Friday near the same level.

Feel free to post comment and your trading ideas

Thanks Petar! That makes more sense!

My update for you on EUR/USD >

New update >

For the EURUSD pair, would you consider it bullish as long as it holds above the downwards channel?

Also, for USDJPY, looking forward to see an update now that we know the resistance level is holding up.

Great video analysis overall!

Thank you very much
1.1661 is a critical level for me (breakout candle low). Since, if the price can back all the demand from that day, it can indicate fake breakout.

Speaking of USD/JPY. I found single prints on the penetration of upward trendline on profile chart, which is a sign that supply overcame demand. From other side, there was a reaction from buyers for being scared of lower prices, they were scared after the news to see their positions in SL so they trying maximum to protect. Anyway, professional traders don't care about them and they will do what is needed to profit from these weak traders.

In professional analysis is always about background and meaning of price action. The same price action but with different background can represent a different thing. As the Tom said > Any current action that is taking place cannot alter the strength or weakness imbedded in the background. It is vital to remember that near background indications are just as important as the most recent.
You do exactly the same thing in your life. Your daily decisions are based on your background information and only partly on what is happening 'today'. If you won the lottery last week, yes, you might be buying a yacht today, but your decision to buy a yacht today will be based on your background history of financial strength appearing in your life last week. The market is exactly the same. Today's action is heavily influenced by recent background strength or weakness rather than what is actually happening today [this is why 'news' does not have a long-term effect]. If the market is being artificially marked up this will be due to weakness in the background. If prices are being artificially marked down it will due to strength in the background. You are being shaken out one way or the other!

Hello everyone,
Just some updates on EUR/USD and USD/JPY. EUR/USD is really playing with the crowd. First, failed HSS formation and then fake downward rejection yesterday. If you are not enough smart to read these market maker maneuvers, you got no chance to create success. As I marked yesterday, the breakout of a bullish flag and respecting 50SMA like support are good signs that we might see a further rise. Today, we might have test bar in a high volume (sign of strength).

Notice on market profile that yesterday the value shifted higher and followed the rise, which is a sign that traders agree on the higher price of EUR/USD.

USD/JPY got clear distribution in my opinion. Broken rising wedge, successful rejection of resistance cluster and fake breakout on the futures market to clean weak traders. As I said, USD/JPY is my only position atm but I got decent risk and potential return on the play.

I target 108.20 but the projected target is 107.35.

Profile confirming willingness from professionals to accept a lower price on USD/JPY.

The patience is needed. The market will decide. Our work like professionals is to find a good opportunity, establish position and observe further fundamental and technical condition in case that we need to adjust. This is the largest business in the world and it's not the point being right all the time, it is a point to make money by earning more when you are right than losing when you are wrong!

I must quote Jesse > Read carefully >

“The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in market the way the average man does.”
― Jesse Livermore

My video TV link up >

Hello, found some free time and wanted to post you quote of the day >

Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. Warren Buffett

Hi Petar,

I look forward to seeing your analysis for the upcoming week on USDJPY. Currently watching the 4H timeframe, it does not look like this pair is able to sell off any further, but not near any significant levels that I will be looking to take a trade.