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Fundamental/News Thread

  • #521
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:38am Nov 3, 2017 2:38am
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} I actually sold the news and placed a buy stop on EURGBP above previous day close, which closed in profit. What key lessons did you learn from this experience?
There was enough time reading the statement to get circa 100 pips on Cable.
Looking at it again I think I did the right thing.
But will revisit my notes
  • #522
  • Nov 3, 2017 4:00am Nov 3, 2017 4:00am
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Hi Fader123 Reading through the FOMC statement, I was able to highlight some economic indicators the FED is looking at for the US economy namely; 1. Unemployment rate 2. Household spending 3. Business fixed investment 4. Gasoline prices 5. Inflation My first question is, what is Market-based measures of inflation compensation ? survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations? Also, the said; "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized...
Compensation is wages. It is released at same time as NFP
The PCE is the Fed's preferred method of assessing inflation
  • #523
  • Nov 3, 2017 4:44am Nov 3, 2017 4:44am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} There was enough time reading the statement to get circa 100 pips on Cable. Looking at it again I think I did the right thing. But will revisit my notes
Key take away for me is Carney hints (says?) direction of rates going forward is going to be dependent on Brexit outcomes. Did you pick up on that bit?
Don't know if that interests the markets. Apart from that I think he was optimistic in his outlook on wages and everything balancing out...
  • #524
  • Edited 9:35am Nov 3, 2017 5:31am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} My second question is, What economic indicators relates to labour market conditions apart from NFP,unemployment rate, Jobless claim and wages? What economic indicators relates to indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations apart from CPI? I will appreciate your response on the above. Thank you
Lordgbengs, your post hits at an important question: What should we focus on? For me, I have to simply things, and only focus on the big issues. But, I also have to be able to answer this question: what's on the market's mind today, and this week?

Here are the big three economic indicators: GDP, Employment, and Inflation. As I mentioned in the US economic outlook a few posts ago, GDP and Employment are great. Inflation is the problem.

Because inflation is stubborn, the FED is paying more attention to the leading indicators for inflation to see if inflation will rise "over the medium term." That means more focus on gas/oil prices, retail sales, and wage inflation. What I mean by leading indicators for inflation is that we can anticipate that increases in retail sales etc. will lead to increases in PCE and CPI.

In fact, wage inflation is the main one right now. That means that the market is paying lots of attention to Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) heading into the Non Farm Payroll today. If AHE is up, the dollar should rise. We could have a situation today where the employment number is 300k, and the dollar falls, if AHE goes down.

Here is how I figure this out, as Fader says, you have to read the monetary policy statements for yourself. However, you also have to find two or three commentators that you read regularly. Here are a few that I like: 1. Kathy Lien; 2. Yohay Elam; and 3. Marc Chandler. I don't always agree with them, but if they are all talking about the same things, those issues are probably "on the market's mind."

Additionally, I like these websites:
1. https://www.babypips.com/news
2. http://www.marketpulse.com/
3. http://www.forexlive.com/
4. https://www.efxnews.com/news-archives. (Thanks Fader)

Additionally, I pay attention to the headlines on Reuters and Bloomberg.

At first, it seems like information overload, but after 2 or 3 months, it really becomes easier.

I usually spend about an hour a day researching. I do it on my subway ride to, and from work.
  • #525
  • Nov 3, 2017 5:42am Nov 3, 2017 5:42am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Key take away for me is Carney hints (says?) direction of rates going forward is going to be dependent on Brexit outcomes. Did you pick up on that bit? Don't know if that interests the markets. Apart from that I think he was optimistic in his outlook on wages and everything balancing out...
Yeah, the Brexit negotiations are going poorly now. That is one of the big reasons that the BOE is only projecting 2 hikes in the next three years. Perhaps, some positive Brexit news over the next few month's will move the market.
  • #526
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:12am Nov 3, 2017 7:12am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Additionally, I like these websites: 1. https://www.babypips.com/news 2. http://www.marketpulse.com/ 3. http://www.forexlive.com/ 4. https://www.efxnews.com/news-archives. (Thanks Fader) Additionally, I pay attention to the headlines on Reuters and Bloomberg. At first, it seems like information overload, but after 2 or 3 months, it really becomes easier. I usually spend about an hour a day researching. I do it on my subway ride to, and from work.

Thanks Cheetah for this sharing.
  • #527
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:35am Nov 3, 2017 8:35am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote}.... We could have a situation today where the employment number is 300k, and the dollar falls, if AHE goes down.
Question for me is: does the market think this one bad report is enough to dissuade the FED from hiking in December? Or will it start pricing in a somewhat dovish hike?

Is there a chance this report is skewed by the hurricanes and that the FED thinks so? But wages was bad.
  • #528
  • Edited 10:37am Nov 3, 2017 9:39am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Question for me is: does the market think this one bad report is enough to dissuade the FED from hiking in December? Or will it start pricing in a somewhat dovish hike? Is there a chance this report is skewed by the hurricanes and that the FED thinks so? But wages was bad.
Today we got a mixed report: 260k new jobs, but no increase or decrease in AHE. This is not enough to significantly alter the path towards hiking.

Besides, the December FOMC statement won't be released until Dec. 13 or so. We will have another NFP release before that.

I will be looking to hear what Yellen has to say over the next few weeks.
  • #529
  • Nov 3, 2017 4:57pm Nov 3, 2017 4:57pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Compensation is wages. It is released at same time as NFP The PCE is the Fed's preferred method of assessing inflation
Thank you Fader123.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #530
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:26pm Nov 3, 2017 7:26pm
I see Trump is on a tour of Asia
If Kim decides to fly a missile over Japan when Trump visits (5-7th November)- this would not go down too well
Then he has some possible trade talks with China 10-11 November -this could be promising
  • #531
  • Nov 4, 2017 9:20am Nov 4, 2017 9:20am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Lordgbengs, your post hits at an important question: What should we focus on? For me, I have to simply things, and only focus on the big issues. But, I also have to be able to answer this question: what's on the market's mind today, and this week? Here are the big three economic indicators: GDP, Employment, and Inflation. As I mentioned in the US economic outlook a few posts ago, GDP and Employment are great. Inflation is the problem. Because inflation is stubborn, the FED is paying more attention to the leading indicators for inflation...
Thank you Cheetah for this, insightful.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #532
  • Nov 5, 2017 7:28pm Nov 5, 2017 7:28pm
US- Trump is in Japan and seems to be talking up trade deals according to his latest tweets
Got 55 ish pips on UJ. Asian traders bidding it up, going for some orders
This was going to be a bigger post - but really what is easier than trading the news.
If this carries over to the London session what will be good.
The only thing that slightly concerns me- is any fresh breaking news on Russia etc.
That might kick in during the NY session (be careful out there)
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  • #533
  • Nov 5, 2017 7:45pm Nov 5, 2017 7:45pm
Was looking at NZDJPY - and when I saw the daily chart - it looked ideal for a decent sell.
Pin bar off resistance- and with the downward trend- from Friday's close
4 hours later it had rallied 50 ish pips (I think)
Just goes to show, never, ever trade without fundamentals or knowing what sentiment is
  • #534
  • Nov 5, 2017 11:59pm Nov 5, 2017 11:59pm
I've got stoploss on selling USDJPY this morning. JPY poped out when BOJ Kuroda keep on continuing the powerful easing. Sigh..I'm selling the USDJPY when Trump telling the Japa has been winning trade in recent decades. I've got spinned and confiused.
  • #535
  • Nov 6, 2017 12:02am Nov 6, 2017 12:02am
The rising wedge on USDJPY push me to enter the sell trade together with the Trumph comment on Japan Yen. The stoploss is to tight that even the price don't have space to breath. Need to improve more.
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  • #536
  • Nov 6, 2017 12:17am Nov 6, 2017 12:17am
What so interesting today that I've read across several site, highlighting the issue on Saudi. Anyone can explain how this Saudi thing will/can effect either major ccy or minor? Its a big thing happening now in Saudi with political issue.
  • #537
  • Nov 6, 2017 7:11am Nov 6, 2017 7:11am
Quoting nttfx
What so interesting today that I've read across several site, highlighting the issue on Saudi. Anyone can explain how this Saudi thing will/can effect either major ccy or minor? Its a big thing happening now in Saudi with political issue.
Political instability will always affect the market
Plus there is an Opec meeting coming up
Oil is obviously the main beneficiary of this
Currency wise the Canadian Dollar gets some benefit as it produces oil
I covered all this in the first few pages of this thread
  • #538
  • Nov 6, 2017 7:13am Nov 6, 2017 7:13am
Quoting nttfx
I've got stoploss on selling USDJPY this morning. JPY poped out when BOJ Kuroda keep on continuing the powerful easing. Sigh..I'm selling the USDJPY when Trump telling the Japa has been winning trade in recent decades. I've got spinned and confiused.
Demo trade until you have made a profit for 3 consecutive months
  • #539
  • Nov 6, 2017 7:53am Nov 6, 2017 7:53am
On the central bank front.

It seems to me that focus is on the RBNZ and RBA forecasts.

It looks a really quiet week this one. So we look to geo-political headlines then.
  • #540
  • Edited 3:38pm Nov 6, 2017 3:03pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
On the central bank front. It seems to me that focus is on the RBNZ and RBA forecasts. It looks a really quiet week this one. So we look to geo-political headlines then.
Think that the markets like the pound.
This can only be from Mark Carney's comments over the weekend
How the heck did we miss this.
Right taking a break from posting on here
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