Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 446 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #8,901
  • Nov 2, 2017 10:54am Nov 2, 2017 10:54am
Quoting Hyena
{quote} Eurjpy monthly is UP so LONG bias! No SHORT Remember "TRADING IS ALL ABOUT PROBABILITIES" Follow the trend, if you want counter trend use fresh and original at extreme (valley or peak) good base 2:1 make HH or LL etc. So, monthly UP SZ in control very high in the curve : 1.long are not allowed because we are very high in the curve 2.short are not allowed because monthly trend is up So i take option number 3.WAIT JUST WAIT analysis another one there's a thousand pair forex,stock,commodities etc. Hopefully this make you clear my friend ...
Thank you very much Hyena . You have well explained.
I am sorry, i speak English a little bit
  • #8,902
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:59am Nov 3, 2017 11:59am
Quoting Hyena
{quote} Eurjpy monthly is UP so LONG bias! No SHORT Remember "TRADING IS ALL ABOUT PROBABILITIES" Follow the trend, if you want counter trend use fresh and original at extreme (valley or peak) good base 2:1 make HH or LL etc. So, monthly UP SZ in control very high in the curve : 1.long are not allowed because we are very high in the curve 2.short are not allowed because monthly trend is up So i take option number 3.WAIT JUST WAIT analysis another one there's a thousand pair forex,stock,commodities etc. Hopefully this make you clear my friend ...
Brother, MN is in consolidation, not up. For MN to be considered in an uptrend, we need it to remove 2 supply zones or remove 1 supply + draw ascending TL.

I see you can draw ascending TL, but I don't see any supply zone being removed yet. So MN is in consolidation.

And when MN is in consolidation, you can take a 'confirmation' trade - a WOW trade at HTF SD levels.

In FOREX, if you want to wait until all 3 timeframes of your sequence to trend in the same direction, you would end up with no setup (unless you go LTF). But of course, you can always look at US stocks now, where you have MN up, WK up, D1 up, so you can take D1 DZ (or WK DZ).
  • #8,903
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:26pm Nov 3, 2017 8:26pm
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Brother, MN is in consolidation, not up. For MN to be considered in an uptrend, we need it to remove 2 supply zones or remove 1 supply + draw ascending TL. I see you can draw ascending TL, but I don't see any supply zone being removed yet. So MN is in consolidation. And when MN is in consolidation, you can take a 'confirmation' trade - a WOW trade at HTF SD levels. In FOREX, if you want to wait until all 3 timeframes of your sequence to trend in the same direction, you would end up with no setup (unless you...
Hi T
On my chart, EURJPY is UP, look this chart :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.PNG Size: 52 KB

Read from the right
Thanks
  • #8,904
  • Nov 4, 2017 5:33am Nov 4, 2017 5:33am
Quoting Hyena
{quote} Hi T On my chart, EURJPY is UP, look this chart : {image} Read from the right Thanks
Brother, you are probably RIGHT!!! I had to look further LEFT to verify this. Everything hinges on whether A is a demand, and I didn't have much history on my chart so I had to go to tradingview and use IDC data. So A is a demand, and the chain reaction will cause B to be a supply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyp-mn1-fxdd.png Size: 62 KB

And therefore MN is indeed in an uptrend!

Now, bear in mind that, I see you draw supply above B, that is what we used to call 'inheritance'. I am not saying that you can't use it. But I believe Alfonso no longer use it. Apart from your S2, the other two Supplies that you drew weren't correct either. My statement is solely based on the rules that are taught by Alfonso, these are:
(1) A Supply is created by either (1) Break of ascending TL, or (2) Break of Demand
(2) A Demand is created by either (2) Break of descending TL, or (2) Break of Supply
(3) Inheritance is no longer used.

Of course, you can use your own rules, and who knows you might do even better?!
  • #8,905
  • Nov 4, 2017 8:16pm Nov 4, 2017 8:16pm
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Brother, you are probably RIGHT!!! I had to look further LEFT to verify this. Everything hinges on whether A is a demand, and I didn't have much history on my chart so I had to go to tradingview and use IDC data. So A is a demand, and the chain reaction will cause B to be a supply. {image} And therefore MN is indeed in an uptrend! Now, bear in mind that, I see you draw supply above B, that is what we used to call 'inheritance'. I am not saying that you can't use it. But I believe Alfonso no longer use it. Apart from your S2, the other...
Brother, you know WHY in this case EURJPY supply inherit above B you draw is no longer valid?? Because the departure is not good it's wicky/a mess/compress area you know this "Compress area no longer valid against the trend its been easier remove/taken out"
BUT, imagine T, IF supply inherit above B is good level,strong imbalance,fresh and original WHAT DO YOU DO? YOU WILL IGNORE IT TO???
INHERIT : supply is supply, demand is demand it's valid or not depends on situation and condition REMEMBER YOU CAN'T BUY HIGH IN THE CURVE AND SELL LOW IN THE CURVE
Thanks! Have a great weekends T
  • #8,906
  • Nov 4, 2017 9:17pm Nov 4, 2017 9:17pm
I don't use inheritance. That supply above B is a supply because it broke ascending TL

Quoting Hyena
{quote} Brother, you know WHY in this case EURJPY supply inherit above B you draw is no longer valid?? Because the departure is not good it's wicky/a mess/compress area you know this "Compress area no longer valid against the trend its been easier remove/taken out" BUT, imagine T, IF supply inherit above B is good level,strong imbalance,fresh and original WHAT DO YOU DO? YOU WILL IGNORE IT TO??? INHERIT : supply is supply, demand is demand it's valid or not depends on situation and condition REMEMBER YOU CAN'T BUY HIGH IN THE CURVE AND SELL LOW...
  • #8,907
  • Nov 5, 2017 11:05am Nov 5, 2017 11:05am
Hello Community,

Iam new at Supply and Demand trading but i have a trade idea! Is this in the Picture a chance to go long?
The top black line would be my target! Thanks a lot!
This is a little scalp Trade for a few pips! I know this .
nice Sunday @all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: F5F434BD-5198-4CD2-B771-B1FBE4CBD381.png Size: 172 KB
  • #8,908
  • Nov 5, 2017 11:13am Nov 5, 2017 11:13am
Hi Alfonso. I am a bit confused in your rules for supply and demand. I have looked at your recent video that you just posted Friday 11/3/2017 on the EUR/JPY pair. I follow that monthly demand is in control. I have attached a png of the weekly chart. I have drawn a trendline according to your rules. There seems to be an imbalance on the Weekly timeframe, because the trendline is actually broken according to your trendline rules, which are a bit confusing. You said to connect the latest 2 valleys and peaks, which makes my trendline correct and we have not hit the higher TF monthly supply, so should that not be supply that broke the trendline, or is it not supply due to the fact that it has not removed that area of demand? I am not confused do to being an ignorant person, but its just that your rules are not clear to me, because they often seem a bit contradicting or not solid.
I say this, because I haven't paid and joined the community, so maybe it's your way of making sure that information is held for paid members, but to give you an example of my reasoning, which is not doubting or bashing your strategy, take for instance your video here:
Inserted Video
you actually contradict the rules in the latest 2 peaks. It just doesn't add up to me, because when you say in the video that, "you would have this, and then you would have that", it actually breaks the trendline rule that you are teaching, so what have I missed in interpretation? I am really trying to understand this, but you are not clear to me even in the responses that I've gotten from you here, almost in a way that you are not wanting to give me that info. Maybe I'm wrong, but can you simply tell me that you are not willing to give me that information rather than not really answering my questions? I am very interested in learning your system and the things that I am confused on, but I do not want to invest into anyone's system if they are not gonna address my misuderstandings and concerns, because how can I be sure that it's in the course. For anyone reading this, I am not bashing or discrediting this system, so I want to be clear on that. I am simply trying to get clarity on the rules for the best system that I've come across. Thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WEEKLY TRENDLINE.PNG Size: 48 KB
  • #8,909
  • Nov 5, 2017 11:26am Nov 5, 2017 11:26am
I forgot to mention in my post above that I am confused due to the weekly trendline actually being broken from my understanding, so wouldn't that refer us back to your rule of "no longs until we reach monthly demand zones"?, which is even different than your predictions on that pair for the upcoming week, which states longs at monthly and weekly areas of demand, if I heard correctly. I totally get the idea of: if monthly demand is up and in control, the weekly is up, and then the D1 is down, it makes the d1 out of alignment, which then we would wait for price to hit a Weekly area of demand before taking longs on the D1 timeframe again.
  • #8,910
  • Nov 5, 2017 12:20pm Nov 5, 2017 12:20pm
I watched the video you posted, and about that part when he said "you would have this, and then you would have that"
I think you misinterpreted what he was trying to say.

Remember this. There are only two rules for drawing TL.
(1) Use the latest and most obvious two peaks or valleys
(2) When you can't find obvious peaks or valleys, let's say price is moving too fast without major pullback, you can draw a more aggressive TL after price has made 3 consecutive CPs.

Of course, Alfonso is human, he can made mistake sometimes, especially when he speaks too fast.

One final thing, you need to be more precise when drawing your TL, the red line is the correct way of drawing it, do not cut through wicks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-11-06_2-14-25.png Size: 61 KB




Quoting H-man
you actually contradict the rules in the latest 2 peaks. It just doesn't add up to me, because when you say in the video that, "you would have this, and then you would have that", it actually breaks the trendline rule that you are teaching, so what have I missed in interpretation? {image}
  • #8,911
  • Nov 5, 2017 4:04pm Nov 5, 2017 4:04pm
Quoting H-man
Hi Alfonso. I am a bit confused in your rules for supply and demand. I have looked at your recent video that you just posted Friday 11/3/2017 on the EUR/JPY pair. I follow that monthly demand is in control. I have attached a png of the weekly chart. I have drawn a trendline according to your rules. There seems to be an imbalance on the Weekly timeframe, because the trendline is actually broken according to your trendline rules, which are a bit confusing. You said to connect the latest 2 valleys and peaks, which makes my trendline correct and we...
Don't misunderstand me please. But look how much you have written. I just started and had to stop, why? It will take me some.timr to read what you are trying to say and then understand and reply. Bear with me, I am sure you understand my position. Answering to your question requires all that, and then explaining many small details. It would take me a long time to do that, just can't. I do want but I just can't. Imagine many did what you do, I would need to clone myself to answer all messages.

Like Tibetian said, I could be wrong, I just don't know, or you could have misunderstood what I was saying. It's just that I don't have the time to re-watch and re read all you said, and give you an answer you are happy with. Just put yourself in my shoes.

Cheers
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,912
  • Nov 5, 2017 4:09pm Nov 5, 2017 4:09pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Don't misunderstand me please. But look how much you have written. I just started and had to stop, why? It will take me some.timr to read what you are trying to say and then understand and reply. Bear with me, I am sure you understand my position. Answering to your question requires all that, and then explaining many small details. It would take me a long time to do that, just can't. I do want but I just can't. Imagine many did what you do, I would need to clone myself to answer all messages. Like Tibetian said, I could be wrong, I just...
"I say this, because I haven't paid and joined the community, so maybe it's your way of making sure that information is held for paid members, but to give you an example of my reasoning, which is not doubting or bashing your strategy, take for instance your video here:"

So in other words, pay for the answer ;-)
  • #8,913
  • Edited 11:46pm Nov 5, 2017 11:24pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting 4Xfactor
{quote} "I say this, because I haven't paid and joined the community, so maybe it's your way of making sure that information is held for paid members, but to give you an example of my reasoning, which is not doubting or bashing your strategy, take for instance your video here:" So in other words, pay for the answer ;-)
Of course it is just that, of course. That's the only reason behind it. Very intelligent on my side. You are missing something very important though, thousands of pages of me supporting anyone asking any question, thousands of personal emails answered. But of course you don't see that, you wouldn't anyone because you already have an idea, for good or for bad, of who I am and what I do and why I do it. I can't see either what you are doing in this thread reading about supply and demand if you think I am doing it just for that. I just don't want this kind of people around in this thread that write in a thread for the first time, not to help anyone but to look down on someone he doesn't even know, me or any other person. This kind of people and behaviour is not welcome here. Keep on visiting those dozens of threads you are following. Think whatever you want to think about me or anyone in this thread, you are free to do it. Have a good day! Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,914
  • Nov 5, 2017 11:44pm Nov 5, 2017 11:44pm
Forex major EURUSD is dropping and creating brand new daily supply zones for potential shorts. In a downtrend supply zones are respected and demand imbalances and levels are removed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 214 KB

How to trade stocks and forex using supply and demand imbalances
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,915
  • Nov 6, 2017 4:38am Nov 6, 2017 4:38am
Quoting panoramia
Forex major EURUSD is dropping and creating brand new daily supply zones for potential shorts. In a downtrend supply zones are respected and demand imbalances and levels are removed. {image} How to trade stocks and forex using supply and demand imbalances
Dear Alfonso,
Are you going to take this short? Where would you place stoploss, above distal line + 25 p or above previous or pre-previous high? Why?
Regards
  • #8,916
  • Edited 6:19am Nov 6, 2017 6:05am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Alfonso, Are you going to take this short? Where would you place stoploss, above distal line + 25 p or above previous or pre-previous high? Why? Regards
Right now it is a valid entry supply zone. Rules are clear where to place the stop. Entries should use the whole imbalance + some padding. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,917
  • Nov 7, 2017 1:39am Nov 7, 2017 1:39am
Forex cross pair AUDNZD has created new daily demand zones lower around 1.0957 for potential longs. In an uptrend supply levels are removed and demand zones and imbalances are respected. Previous Daily demand level lower around 1.0853 played out nicely, let's see what happens with this one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 304 KB


How to trade stocks and forex using supply and demand imbalances
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,918
  • Nov 8, 2017 1:19am Nov 8, 2017 1:19am
EOG Resources american stock #EOG weekly demand levels and imbalances. New weekly demand levels created around 97 and 85.75 respectively with monthly demand level in control and in a clear uptrend. Long bias at new imbalances

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 92 KB


How to trade stocks and forex using supply and demand imbalances
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,919
  • Nov 11, 2017 11:52am Nov 11, 2017 11:52am
Quoting panoramia
Forex cross pair AUDNZD has created new daily demand zones lower around 1.0957 for potential longs. In an uptrend supply levels are removed and demand zones and imbalances are respected. Previous Daily demand level lower around 1.0853 played out nicely, let's see what happens with this one. {image} How to trade stocks and forex using supply and demand imbalances
alfonso, you said that the previous daily level around 1.0853 played out nicely, it was valid because it was nested in a weekly demand zone, right? since the daily had removed demand and broken the TL. see my picture for reference below

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JruOycH.png Size: 88 KB
  • #8,920
  • Nov 12, 2017 12:48am Nov 12, 2017 12:48am
Quoting isaacpeh
{quote} I don't see how that demand is formed. After a downtrend, it broke and formed a demand zone right at the bottom. It rallies up but didn't break any supply did it? Sorry if i misinterpreted.
hello sir
i am the one also trade Demand and supply zone system for this, so i hope we can share idea and learn together on the future
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