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  • #321
  • Nov 5, 2017 2:36am Nov 5, 2017 2:36am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} using h1 with h4 and daily, but only picking small trades and keeping skew small, say 1 1 1, just to trade further out in timeframe. 15m is only for timing pullbacks..

Hello CookieMonsta,

Excuse me to come across your discussion with Phil. It's another nice post of yours. Might serve as a manual. Just to add, TF and corresponding scew/leverage picking up might depend on current flow, volatility. E.g., one can greatly enjoy many pips moves on 1M when the vola is granted by Market...

On the other hand, I much like Jupiter's thread that has unfortunately or wisely been binned... Personally consider that as a relevant trader guide.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #322
  • Nov 5, 2017 2:44am Nov 5, 2017 2:44am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Excuse me to come across you discussion with Phil. It's another nice post of yours. Might serve as a manual. Just to add, TF and corresponding scew/leverage picking up might depend on current flow, volatility. E.g., one can gratly enjoy many pips moves on 1M when the vola is granted by Market... On the other hand, I much like Jupiter's thread that has unfortunately or wisely been binned... Personally consider that as a relevant trader guide. Best regards, Exnav
You will see what I have above is not so different from what Jupiter have, the core basics are there. Mm may be diff but the core read of pulse and the rest is still there.

If you read Fti's suggestion to Jupiter to not be so rigid in accumulation and distribution sequences, you will see why if you see this mo. Reason I could tell Jupiter what fti means when he says don't have to be cross 1 line and it's cut, is because I'm using a similar one, which is the one above, and I'm all too familiar with that curve ball the market throws.

The 3 legged animal is my attempt at solving this particular sequence of events.
  • #323
  • Edited 3:31am Nov 5, 2017 2:58am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Thank you for your question. Even if that was not or just a rhetoric, I will specify my meaning of the cowardice in the previous post. It implies an outcome. E.g., one may watch price movement and analyze it but he/she never engages due to many reasons so the result will certainly be better than for 95% of active traders, i.e. = 0 . Therefore, we might name these guys as analyst, coward, or in effect they are just more prudent being"traders"merely in their analytical or cautious, rational imagination. Although, their...

It's not the results that you produce that determines if you are humble or cowardly.

It's the mindset you bring in. Analyst are people who have no skin in the game, unless they actually trade, if they do then they are not cowards and definitely not analyst. Those are not people whom we are concerned about. It's not about deconstructing you arguement, but rather it's in agreement with it, because you mentioned the best way to learn is to trade live and have skin in the game.

This is something which has to do with lesson 2, live running battle mindset. Read lesson 2 again, ponder on the term coward and and brave. Just like the markets, the term coward, exceptional, brave, calculated, they have very nuanced meanings. They may look similar on the outside, but are really different on the inside.

Just think about the military, soldiers go out 'live' all the time, imagine if your buddy is a coward, sees some fire and runs on you. Then imagine if your buddy is so arrogant, and starts walking and giving your position away, when you are supposed to be in ambush. Both are bad, the ideal mindset is discipline. 50% humble 50% confidence.

I'm not saying that you are exactly wrong, I'm also not saying you are exactly right, as the answer is more a range than a binary right or wrong.

I guess my point is, the answer is alot more in-depth and nuanced and complicated than simply arrogant or coward, because those are extremes, in trading, you cannot afford to be extreme, you have to be well balanced emotionally.

I'm curious what your read of fti's personality? Because he is able to trade so well mainly because of his personality, as the mo gels well with his personality.

Just ponder about this, a person whose proud of the fact that he is a good person, doesn't his ego stop him from committing evil things? In this case, is ego good or bad? But when he is too egoistic that he determined what's good or bad, in his own judgement, what does that make him?
  • #324
  • Nov 5, 2017 3:32am Nov 5, 2017 3:32am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} It's not the results that you produce that determines if you are humble or cowardly. It's the mindset you bring in. in trading, you cannot afford to be extreme, you have to be well balanced emotionally. I'm curious what your read of fti's personality? Because he is able to trade so well mainly because of his personality, as the mo gels well with his personality.
Hello CookieMonsta,

I will appreciate whatever your statements or thoughts are. Actually, I'd accept critical and even provocative ones.

First, to structure my previous posts further. I would like to refer to Jupiter's thread as I read his message: he was fighting his battles against those retailers who didn't understand. That's also regards the point of friendship vs business.

Second, your question of fti's personality is indeed tough to answer. I did recently hint that live trading is genuinely individual (features: Ego, abilities, skills, back-ground experience, market knowledge, CAP, pain threshold). If we consider the TAF true reality, I also wrote lately in your thread about the advantages FTI (actually pros and cons) could have had. Appareantly , we may assume that all of the features were extremely matching and forming a required personality balance/ power. Therefore, I should agree with yours "the mo gets well with his personality". Just on example, TF - small ones to engage, swift attacks and rescue, cut and flip... nimbleness of a fighter jet pilot and martial arts. So, yes MO must fit to personality and vice versa.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #325
  • Edited 3:51am Nov 5, 2017 3:39am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, I will appreciate whatever your statements or thoughts are. Actually, I'd accept critical and even provocative ones. First, to structure my previous posts further. I would like to refer to Jupiter's thread as I read his message: he was fighting his battles against those retailers who didn't understand. That's also regards the point of friendship vs business. Second, your question of fti's personality is indeed tough to answer. I did recently hint that live trading is genuinely individual (features: Ego, abilities, skills,...
Regarding Jupiter's post, it's actually the emperor moth story, he is trying to force an epiphany, understanding and enlightenment, on them, learning doesn't work that way. The only way is they arrive on the conclusion on their own, because when they reach there, it means the necessary foundation is already laid.

Well regarding fti, I was expecting a different answer, it wasn't why his mo was like that but the why he could get to where is he, a CEO at 1 point.

If he didn't have an ego at all, he would have stopped and called it a small win. Just an average trader. If he had too much, he would have already blown out. So can you see what I'm trying to say here? Ego is a double edged sword, it can help you if you have enough, too much and it cuts you deep.

Ego, is the manifestation of the many different kinds of self, under all the different kinds of environmental factors. It is not good or bad, it is what you make it to be. Or rather I should say it this way, ego is good or bad depending on what you do with it.
  • #326
  • Nov 5, 2017 3:51am Nov 5, 2017 3:51am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well regarding fti, I was expecting a different answer, it wasn't why his mo was like that but the why he could get to where is he, a CEO at 1 point. If he didn't have an ego at all, he would have stopped and called it a small win. Just an average trader. If he had too much, he would have already blown out. So can you see what I'm trying to say here? Ego is a double edged sword, it can help you if you have enough, too much and it cuts you deep.
Ego, no doubt. Ego in both personal life and career. No touching personal life, presumably, a monk would not have an Ego to become CEO or billionaire.

Latest FTI did not have that CEO Ego capabilities. But he was, IMHO, right about life and business. When it comes to money, there is no friendship. The more money you have the cons would hang around.

One thing that I'm unsure is regarding the "humble" versus "business" in retail Fx. Anyway, if you profit, others lose. It's truth.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #327
  • Nov 5, 2017 4:01am Nov 5, 2017 4:01am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Ego, no doubt. Ego in both personal life and career. No touching personal life, presumably, a monk would not have an Ego to become CEO or billionaire. Latest FTI did not have that CEO Ego capabilities. But he was, IMHO, right about life and business. When it comes to money, there is no friendship. The more money you have the cons would hang around. One thing that I'm unsure is regarding the "humble" versus "business" in retail Fx. Anyway, if you profit, others lose. It's truth.
But what made the monk decide to be a monk?

Fti, has the capability, but he cracked, events in his life took a toll on him, it's sad.

Well, but what has being humble got to do with business aside from if you get arrogant, you don't manage risk and blow up?
  • #328
  • Nov 5, 2017 4:10am Nov 5, 2017 4:10am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} But what made the monk decide to be a monk? Fti, has the capability, but he cracked, events in his life took a toll on him, it's sad. Well, but what has being humble got to do with business aside from if you get arrogant, you don't manage risk and blow up?
Hello CookieMonsta,

I should articulate the formula correctly: In Fx retail a humble retailer may profit provided his awareness that other retailers (majority) are losers.
Concerning the blowing up likelihood, I would call it merely gambling if live trading, or Demoing. Otherwise, one should consult doctors. Sorry for IMHO.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #329
  • Edited 5:14am Nov 5, 2017 5:02am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, I should articulate the formula correctly: In Fx retail a humble retailer may profit provided his awareness that other retailers (majority) are losers. Concerning the blowing up likelihood, I would call it merely gambling if live trading, or Demoing. Otherwise, one should consult doctors. Sorry for IMHO. Best regards, Exnav
hmm, sorry but i don't get it, you have people like phil13 and dongsky and jupiter making money consistently, i would hesitate to call that gambling.

also, other retail traders are losing money for a variety of reason, end of the day, there is still a market maker or broker inbetween. so i don't really get the point in which to focus on the losers. some "retail clients" are not retail clients at all, if you go to look at oanda's website, they have a column called financial service for corporations, which allows corps to hedge their exposure through brokers/mm like oanda. some of the retailers profits may come from these hedging activities.

corps like these are not in the business to make money in speculation, they are the primary market users and are there to hedge their primary market risk, like exchange rates which may impact their earnings if they have multinational facets to their business. sometimes a good position for them is to "lose" on their hedging leg, as to lock in their price. and that is where mm/retail or in general, liquidity providers come in and shoulder the risk. then since they gave the upside to lock the downside, those who shoulder the risk, takes on the risk and profits as a result too. hence, some of the money comes from the losing traders, but i highly doubt all of it is from them.

in order for your statement to be true, if i intepret it correctly, otherwise correct me, is that the total amount the losing traders lose must be equal to the amount the winning traders make, not counting for corp clients and mm.

its best practice to never let your guard down, before even crossing swords with your opponent, the best way, never let your guard down while you have exposure, even if its just 1 little bit. point is, there isn't any point to focus on the 95% losing traders right? because every trader really is as good as their last trade, the moment they slip up, they join the 95%, best to just keep figuring how to continue staying in the 5%.
  • #330
  • Nov 5, 2017 9:08am Nov 5, 2017 9:08am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} in order for your statement to be true, if i intepret it correctly, otherwise correct me, is that the total amount the losing traders lose must be equal to the amount the winning traders make, not counting for corp clients and mm. its best practice to never let your guard down, before even crossing swords with your opponent, the best way, never let your guard down while you have exposure, even if its just 1 little bit. point is, there isn't any point to focus on the 95% losing traders right? because every trader really is as good as their...
Hello CookieMonsta,

Thank you for your kind feedback.

No, there were no formal statements on my end. Who I'm to make any claims here? If it went to speculative allegations, then I would just adhere to the following: Retail Fx Spot is constructed so to take money from retailers and not other way around. "in order for your statement to be true, if i intepret it correctly, otherwise correct me, is that the total amount the losing traders lose must be equal to the amount the winning traders make, not counting for corp clients and mm."

And please read some posts of Jupiter's binned thread I am relating. E.g., post No 546 there"Following my Lady up and down through the blackboard.
And whacking hard these stupid retailers. As I always do."

In reference to "there isn't any point to focus on the 95% losing traders right? because every trader really is as good as their last trade, the moment they slip up, they join the 95%, best to just keep figuring how to continue staying in the 5%", I must concur with you. To stay alive in the game one must be, or behave so exclusively, or literally remake himself/ herself up to exception. Focusing on your own skills internalizing, mastering in every single battle (not on money). One will see the threshold point if his/ her ship is afloat and able to navigate.

In these terms, successful gamblers are also an exception. And I don't negate their existance either. In my post nor meant I blowing up training account or sorts of part trade funds accounts (when one may have several accounts for certain MM/ MO purposes).

I can humbly assume that those exception traders are advantageous also due to opportunities provided by the Fx spot industry and consequently by ... losers (whoever they are, retailers, corps failures, etc.). If I'm correct, even BOE could not stand once against real sharks of the game.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #331
  • Nov 5, 2017 10:07am Nov 5, 2017 10:07am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Thank you for your kind feedback. No, there were no formal statements on my end. Who I'm to make any claims here? If it went to speculative allegations, then I would just adhere to the following: Retail Fx Spot is constructed so to take money from retailers and not other way around. "in order for your statement to be true, if i intepret it correctly, otherwise correct me, is that the total amount the losing traders lose must be equal to the amount the winning traders make, not counting for corp clients and mm." And please...
As for the first point, it's a battlefield, you can earn your bounty as much as someone can make you their bounty.

Well, i sense some ego inflation in there, regarding Jupiter's post, I guess it comes with profitability and confidence, but that's not something I would recommend bringing into the battlefield, for it's a seed for a potential problem.

The real competition is really only with yourself, not with others, only by competing with yourself can you truly bring out the true strength and latent potential you have, if you keep chasing someone's shadow, then their skill level is your limits, and because of this, you can never truly become strong and become a giant on your own. It's when you recognise that, in order to fully unlock your own potential, the strength must be home grown, not just borrowed from someone else, then you will truly see the path to unlimited potential.

In truth, professional gamblers who are successful are not so unlike professional traders, the name of the game is keeping risk small, playing for small wins till the real opportunity arrives. They do not bring the kind of mindset which average gamblers bring in.

Go watch the movie 21, see how calculated the bunch are, those are no gamblers, or at least not the average gamblers. The way they operate is similar to AoW, scout then when right press, if wrong, cut. Keep loss small, when opportunity comes press big.

No one is immune to blowing up really, except the central banks themselves and also too big to fail who force central banks to help them. Why else would nick leeson have gone rogue? Because of too much ego.

Actually, people like fti, who after they retire, are also retail traders, so, you never know who in the crowd may have been a legend. So, yea, you get my point.
  • #332
  • Nov 5, 2017 2:31pm Nov 5, 2017 2:31pm
Hi CookieMonsta and Exnav

And there you have it my friends…… the strangest secret.

Quote… ‘The real competition is really only with yourself, not with others’… end quote.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeaBfM3TdHQ

I do think that you and Exnav are most likely saying something very similar but the language and culture dialect is getting somewhat in the way here.

There is an English gangster move I absolutely love, try to watch it if you have time…. THE BUSINESS.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0429715/mediaviewer/rm2850438912

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #333
  • Nov 6, 2017 12:01am Nov 6, 2017 12:01am
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta and Exnav And there you have it my friends…… the strangest secret. Quote… ‘The real competition is really only with yourself, not with others’… end quote. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeaBfM3TdHQ I do think that you and Exnav are most likely saying something very similar but the language and culture dialect is getting somewhat in the way here. There is an English gangster move I absolutely love, try to watch it if you have time…. THE BUSINESS. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0429715/mediaviewer/rm2850438912 regards...
Hello Phil,

Thank you for your sage words. You are so right and it's about real life experience. Actually, I don't disagree with CookieMonsta but trying to subjectively unvail something from an angle I'm sensing the live trading now. And I entirely allow that I could have been unable to pronounce it in a good comprehensive way.

I would not comment the probably sharp posts of Jupiter I was referring to but confirm my personal gratitude for his (binned) thread (for me, he displayed and well hinted the picture the way, e.g., I'm unable to do). And admitting that the spicy expressed attitude toward retailers may well make some waking up or enough motivating (as in sport).

Thank you again for the reminder video that I remember have watched once in TAF. As well, I will gratefully enjoy the movie you suggested.

So, the week-end is over. The trading floor is ours do dive now. Enjoy it.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #334
  • Nov 6, 2017 9:45am Nov 6, 2017 9:45am
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta and Exnav And there you have it my friends…… the strangest secret. Quote… ‘The real competition is really only with yourself, not with others’… end quote. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeaBfM3TdHQ I do think that you and Exnav are most likely saying something very similar but the language and culture dialect is getting somewhat in the way here. There is an English gangster move I absolutely love, try to watch it if you have time…. THE BUSINESS. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0429715/mediaviewer/rm2850438912 regards...
Hi Phil,

That was the video I saw you recommended before in the taf thread. The secret of success was that you gotta walk the path towards success. Indeed that is the mindset which I adopt when it comes to my trading learning curve.
  • #335
  • Edited 11:54am Nov 9, 2017 9:19am | Edited 11:54am
Inspirational video.

The question is, what is your gift?

I think mine is innovation. As it allowed me to see the 3legged animal.

Innovation, the freedom to act, and the courage to pursue and the resolve to persevere. Innovation is my nature.

The mindset of success.

Only when you understand your true strengths and your true weakness, can you maximize you true latent potential, maximize on your strength, improve your weakness.

You see how jeet kune do follows this mindset, and be like water. The freedom to express what the mind wants with innovativeness through the body.

These days, when I trade, I don't even consciously think, it's all reaction because of training. I think lesser and lesser these days, it's becoming all reflex.

https://youtu.be/StTQzAE3orI
  • #336
  • Nov 9, 2017 12:30pm Nov 9, 2017 12:30pm
https://youtu.be/BEG-ly9tQGk

The key is, combat effectiveness, didn't matter how glorified a method is, combat effectiveness is still most important.

See how different it is from modern day archery, that technique was sharpened for war, for combat, a stark contrast to what you have today.

Read jeet kune do and Bruce Lee comments on modern day martial arts. Basically the same thing. Combat effectiveness is key.

The problem usually comes in when the mind becomes rigid.
  • #337
  • Nov 9, 2017 10:37pm Nov 9, 2017 10:37pm
Suppose with establish a collar strategy at 100pip wide on the left and the right, so it's total 200pips wide, 100 pips possible upside, 100pips downside, so r&r is 1 to 1, notice, does not include spreads, factoring in spreads, the be is adjusted 20pips up, on average after looking at afew quotes, spreads for round trip excluding adjustments is 20pips. So 1 adjustment is 20pips, meaning if you have just 1 or 2 adjustment, you will have the probabilities working against you.

If no adjustment, just laying the trade on, factoring in spreads you are instantly, 80pips potential up and 120pips potential down, on a long collar spread. Hence, multilegs are bad for retail. Hence, only viable one is probably very basic simple mo with spot delta hedge technique. As spread cost is minimised .

So the real invisible killer in options is spreads.

Note, I have not traded these multilegs but just a rough intuition is enough, to note that it's more suitable for market makers, because they get paid the spread, hence, it is advantageous for them, if they need complex managing mo. Aka write synthetics on the fly.
  • #338
  • Nov 12, 2017 2:58am Nov 12, 2017 2:58am
The grey areas are where new insights are developed.

I love the grey areas, they improve me alot.

People who only see black and white (figurative of course, not pointing to people who are colour blind), are easily confused when the markets throw them something which is not black to white but something existing outside of their knowledge and the model of their trading knowledge. Ability to perceive and courage to be willing to be exposed to something you do not understand, is what allows you to adapt.

Question, how big is the grey area in trading?
  • #339
  • Edited 4:15am Nov 12, 2017 4:00am | Edited 4:15am
Nassim Taleb's book, on options, dynamic hedging is a really good book, especially the chapter on volatility and correlation.

it actually highlights LTCM's mistake of assumptions and also the EURCHF relationship to hedge, aka, the 2 legged animal. which is when trading the eurusd and you use usdchf to hedge, its pretty much akin to trading EURCHF, except 1 thing, when you trade 1lot eurusd and trade 1 lot usdchf, its not a perfect hedge, because the actual math is eurusd divided by usdchf to devise the hedge ratio, just that when you trade say 0.01 lots, you will not see the delta impefection in small increments.

also, what is in that chapter is the volatility of correlation, which is that correlations tear then go in sync and then tear again. which is what fti is saying about ro3k, when the cross tear, it alludes to changing fundamentals. then it blows over but the economic and political situation seems unaffected, the correlation goes in sync, but if the political situation and economic situation is greatly affected, like in brexit, it will change the correlation forever, like what we are seeing in eurusd, gbpusd and eurgbp, because of the fact that, now it seems eurgbp is the fundamental driver with britain seeking to leave EU, and the correlation (note, its not irrational correlation tear its actually rational, so people doing arbitrage on these relationships will be in trouble, because unless they understand this fact they will not know when to stop using the correlations), may change forever, and ever return. the nature of hard relationships and soft ones.

this is the true nature of "arbitrage relationships"(why in quotes? because its not true arbitrage, true arbitrage are like cross exchange, or dark pool vs exchange arbitrage where you are assured of a value holding, its just a matter of finding the right buyer/seller), its the way the players, the political, economical and fundamental climate of the 2 countries involved which produces the relationship, it can change anytime, when something huge happens.

this is the true nature of ro3k, some are friends more than others, but friends can turn enemies too, and enemies can become friends in dire straits too out of necessity.

just an intuition, with this theoretical understanding, i believe, if we go back to look at the SNB swiss franc intervention, we should be able to catch a small glance of the butterfly, if we look at all the majors and their cross? big boys, to remain solvent, should be busy implementing locks, so perhaps,they may be pulling out the big guns to save themselves, just my conjecture. the price action of ro3k would be the smoking gun
  • #340
  • Nov 12, 2017 11:50pm Nov 12, 2017 11:50pm
One group buying are market makers. In order to provide liquidity, market makers will take all those shitty positions and allocate them to what's called a negative selection portfolio. That is, a portfolio of positions that they took to generate commissions and earn money on the spread. The same institutions will have a positive selection portfolio which contains positions to offset the negative selection portfolio. The idea is that they lose money on the negative, make money on the positive (cancel each other out), but still earn the commissions and spread. Also, people who dollar cost average and make regular contributions to a portfolio regardless of market conditions provide much needed positive liquidity as well since rarely are those people holding short positions.

Copied from Reddit.

Source
https://amp.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/3idj1u/when_theres_a_massive_selloff_whos_buying/

Butterfly? Negative plus positive portfolio selection implements a lock.
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