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PWT Reboot - Supply/Demand analysis and trading

  • #41
  • Nov 2, 2017 10:35am Nov 2, 2017 10:35am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} There's a chance for GU to be capped at 1.3080. H4 zone like this, I think it's best to wait and see if H4 bullish reversal PA sets up. Will be a while before that happens though, and there's always NFP tomorrow... Some nice M5 stuff on UJ... {image}
Definitely wont be touch trading GU, I'd be happier if holding a short.

Some twists and turns on UJ over the last couple of sessions. I've not been sharp to catch any of it. I've had a day off work today and I'm extremely slow, rusty and out of sync...

Had a few stabs at EU M5 and got wrong footed a couple of times. Intraday trading is not for the feint hearted.
  • #42
  • Nov 2, 2017 10:38am Nov 2, 2017 10:38am
Quoting simond2002
Currently thinking to try buy oz. {image}
Have been in it for most of the day.
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  • #43
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:51am Nov 3, 2017 1:51am
Quoting simond2002
Currently thinking to try buy oz. {image}
In combination with the double-tap on H1 that break of local SR and PA looked like Oz might try for the first target and give about 40 pips. Took it 9 hours of grinding to go the other way. About 16 pip loss on this trade.

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  • #44
  • Nov 3, 2017 4:07am Nov 3, 2017 4:07am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} In combination with the double-tap on H1 that break of local SR and PA looked like Oz might try for the first target and give about 40 pips. Took it 9 hours of grinding to go the other way. About 16 pip loss on this trade. {image}
I got stopped at b/e overnight too. It looks like the large weekly s/r scuppered things.
  • #45
  • Nov 3, 2017 5:16am Nov 3, 2017 5:16am
Quoting Swamipips
{quote} I got stopped at b/e overnight too. It looks like the large weekly s/r scuppered things.
It's interesting to break down the PA on this trade and make some comparisons with Mallow's EG trade on C-12's thread here

AUDUSD I think on Daily was obviously contra-trend but the H1 PA in isolation looked like it was going to provide support up to at least the SR around 0.7750. This was basically my initial rationale for buying off the H1 TF:

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Mallow's EG trade looks similar on H1 but checking out Daily gives an entirely different picture. Price had evidently hit a Daily support area, and it's this which seems to have given much added weight to the H1 PA. Food for thought...

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  • #46
  • Nov 3, 2017 5:28am Nov 3, 2017 5:28am
Brilliant post, couldn’t agree more


Quoting simond2002
{quote} It's interesting to break down the PA on this trade and make some comparisons with Mallow's EG trade on C-12's thread here AUDUSD I think on Daily was obviously contra-trend but the H1 PA in isolation looked like it was going to provide support up to at least the SR around 0.7750. This was basically my initial rationale for buying off the H1 TF: {image} Mallow's EG trade looks similar on H1 but checking out Daily gives an entirely different picture. Price had...
  • #47
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:45am Nov 3, 2017 7:45am
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  • #48
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:12am Nov 3, 2017 8:12am
Quoting simond2002
{image}
Kerching!

Worth a rethink on zone trades?
  • #49
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:14am Nov 3, 2017 8:14am
Quoting C-12
Out flat on UJ and EU, didn't like the UJ M15 demand base that established on the retrace. Daily bull engulf likely to still be intact.. That M15 zone could be a launch pad for NFP tomorrow.
Anyone catch it? Slapped a couple of limits on before work. Not had a chance to check if I got a fill on the entries.
  • #50
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:33am Nov 3, 2017 8:33am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Kerching! Worth a rethink on zone trades?
Yea, I think get the context correct on zone trading and it's a very rational way of working, especially when taking some confirming PA to boot.

Didn't catch anything on EU or UJ around NFP but if euro retraces a little higher, might consider shorting although it could be getting a bit late now.
  • #51
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:26am Nov 3, 2017 10:26am
Seems like it worked out. As soon as I saw the bull move yesterday I figured this was the NFP setup being planted..

You very often see these setups form a day or two prior to a news event.

That AU short you caught earlier was a peach.
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  • #52
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:35am Nov 3, 2017 10:35am
Was a cracking zone on NU earlier. Took a small one on PA. That PA turned into a fresh zone so left the stop where it was. Will hold it.

You'd need a 4k monitor to had spotted it tough

I think your missus is just going have to accept the purchase
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  • #53
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:39am Nov 3, 2017 10:39am
Had my eyes on these 2 UCAD M5 levels this morning (after D1 PA had rolled over).

Didn't see anything on M15 or higher though so held out. Should have took the plunge... Outstanding RR on that one. Like 20 - 1 or something.

Anyway. Don't want to derail this thread with direct zone trades but I think it merits a further discussion.
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  • #54
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:50am Nov 3, 2017 10:50am
Quoting C-12
I think your missus is just going have to accept the purchase
She's sitting on the other side of the room with her laptop giving it the, "I know that you know that I know" look...

Can't make up my mind about this pivot stuff. Been playing around with an indicator that's on Davit's thread. Quite interesting that supply has formed around that S38. I don't think I'd use them for entries but could be useful for targets. What do you think about them, is it just superfluous stuff? (Lovely UJ trade btw).

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  • #55
  • Edited 11:09am Nov 3, 2017 10:55am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} She's sitting on the other side of the room with her laptop giving it the, "I know that you know that I know" look... Can't make up my mind about this pivot stuff. Been playing around with an indicator that's on Davit's thread. Quite interesting that supply has formed around that S38. I don't think I'd use them for entries but could be useful for targets. What do you think about them, is it just superfluous stuff? (Lovely UJ trade btw). {image}
No I think there are too many variables at play. For me, they're just a random distribution of lines around current price that change on a daily basis.

I don't think the market gives a damn about those pivot numbers, especially since the levels display differently on different timezone brokers. But I'd be interested to know what the stats are as it may offer an edge of some sort.

If I ever see a reversal, it's always either from a zone (90%), an S/R or the spike of a swing high (as a stitch up).. and sometimes, very rarely off a round number.

However, you might laugh but I do think the 200 EMA does sometimes act like a support and resistance.
  • #56
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:07am Nov 3, 2017 11:07am
Quoting C-12
{quote} No I think there are too many variables at play. For me, they're just a random distribution of lines around current price that change on a daily basis. I don't think the market gives a damn about those pivot numbers, especially since the levels display differently on different timezone brokers. But I'd be interested to know what the stats are as it may offer an edge of some sort. If I ever see a reversal, it's always either from a zone (90%), an S/R or the spike of a swing high (as a stitch up).. and sometimes, very rarely off a round number....
Been thinking same. Apart from anything I'm not keen on the extra clutter.

Best be off, missus is calling lol.

Have a good weekend
  • #57
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:49am Nov 3, 2017 11:49am
The pivots no doubt have an element of value for those who are using them, they offer a simplistic framework to look for reversals From. Ultimately markets range/mean rever more than they trend so it makes sense that davits system would work. I have looked it to it too. I also like his weight on physiology and the statistical element of trading ala Mark Douglas.

Quoting C-12
{quote} No I think there are too many variables at play. For me, they're just a random distribution of lines around current price that change on a daily basis. I don't think the market gives a damn about those pivot numbers, especially since the levels display differently on different timezone brokers. But I'd be interested to know what the stats are as it may offer an edge of some sort. If I ever see a reversal, it's always either from a zone (90%), an S/R or the spike of a swing high (as a stitch up).. and sometimes, very rarely off a round number....
  • #58
  • Nov 3, 2017 12:05pm Nov 3, 2017 12:05pm
Quoting Swamipips
The pivots no doubt have an element of value for those who are using them, they offer a simplistic framework to look for reversals From. Ultimately markets range/mean rever more than they trend so it makes sense that davits system would work. I have looked it to it too. I also like his weight on physiology and the statistical element of trading ala Mark Douglas. {quote}
There's good stuff in his thread. Not sure about the fundamentals though as it's adds a whole layer of complexity and bias.

I've tried his low mini lot multiple entry style a few years before he started his thread and it works. It's great for the psychology. It's not the most efficient from a pure RR perspective and it's hard to manage so many entries across multiple pairs, especially when news breaks.

As for pivots, if you plot a bunch of evenly spaced random lines around current price, some of them will turn price on a dime.
  • #59
  • Nov 6, 2017 4:10am Nov 6, 2017 4:10am
Quoting simond2002
{image}
Bit of oz back on the way up. 1st off, 3 running.

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  • #60
  • Nov 6, 2017 6:51am Nov 6, 2017 6:51am
Few running GJ. Bought this one in the weeds of that flag this morning (before it had printed as a flag). First opportunity to move the stop has only just occurred. Could come straight back into the rough. Will see.

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