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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #5,601
  • Edited 4:58pm Oct 27, 2017 4:19pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} I know you like the engulfing PA in the direction of a higher timeframe. Do you just mostly avoid the first touch of a higher time frame zone like that and wait for additional confirmation? Those countertrend trades are tough to take.
Well this zone can do one of three things from here:

1) It gets taken out without any resistance
2) Bounce for a small amount of pips then continue down.
3) Turn out to be an all out reversal to the upside.

The chances of 1 and 2 happening are high enough to keep me from jumping straight in as a touch trade.

From looking at weekly / daily PA I would guess option 2 may happen. I'd prefer to wait and see if we get a bounce and then engulfing PA as an entry to continue south (just my view).

If it is a major reversal level then you can catch that with PA as well. We are on a weekly S/R line so who knows.
  • #5,602
  • Oct 28, 2017 7:53am Oct 28, 2017 7:53am
Great chart here.

AUS200 spends 5-6 months stuck in a horrific range. It then shoots down straight into demand in a single day and takes off like a rocket..

I can only imagine how many breakout traders would have seen their arse over this..
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  • #5,603
  • Oct 28, 2017 11:09am Oct 28, 2017 11:09am
Hi C-12, that whipsaw looks extreme, but I think that there is something shady. Here are screens from DukasCopy and TradingView.
Bit courious which brokers had that fakeout as well...
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  • #5,604
  • Oct 31, 2017 11:37am Oct 31, 2017 11:37am
Quoting C-12
{quote} You're right, it can be confusing. Something like this highlighted in the green box I call an engulf in terms of an uptrend. You know how the zone is going to print and can then become entries to hide a stop behind. Will try and find better live examples than this dodgy drawing. {image}
Hi C, i try to understand your "engulf" entry with trend favor, as you explained in the quoted post. For me is just a 1-2-3 pattern, but instead of placing orders at the break of 2nd leg (textbook), you often did entries directly at point 2. I numbered the chart below.
Attached Image


How do you know where the point 2 is?
How do you know the retrace will stop exactly there, so you can buy/sell at the low/top of the retracement?

No engulfing candle nor sup/dem is already formed at point 2...
  • #5,605
  • Edited 1:18pm Oct 31, 2017 12:23pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting sanmiguell
{quote} Hi C, i try to understand your "engulf" entry with trend favor, as you explained in the quoted post. For me is just a 1-2-3 pattern, but instead of placing orders at the break of 2nd leg (textbook), you often did entries directly at point 2. I numbered the chart below. {image} How do you know where the point 2 is? How do you know the retrace will stop exactly there, so you can buy/sell at the low/top of the retracement? No engulfing candle nor sup/dem is already formed at point 2...
Not really that rigid but I know what the structure looks like when I see it. It's basically a pullback and then a bull engulfing move after point 2 has engulfed point 1.

It's probably better with live examples. I've posted 100's on this thread. Here's one on GU recently.

Make sure to sync in with H4 (ie - for buys you want a H4 bullish engulfing coming off an area of interest - with trend or off a demand).
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  • #5,606
  • Oct 31, 2017 1:36pm Oct 31, 2017 1:36pm
Engulfing entry on EG, although winding this account down.
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  • #5,607
  • Oct 31, 2017 3:13pm Oct 31, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Not really that rigid but I know what the structure looks like when I see it. It's basically a pullback and then a bull engulfing move after point 2 has engulfed point 1. It's probably better with live examples. I've posted 100's on this thread. Here's one on GU recently. Make sure to sync in with H4 (ie - for buys you want a H4 bullish engulfing coming off an area of interest - with trend or off a demand). {image}
So you mostly trade an engulfing to be. When price has passed point 2, you expect an engulfing to be formed, before it formed
  • #5,608
  • Edited 3:41pm Oct 31, 2017 3:28pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting sanmiguell
{quote} So you mostly trade an engulfing to be. When price has passed point 2, you expect an engulfing to be formed, before it formed
After a long time watching charts you can see what a demand / supply zone will look like before it prints on the indicator. You can see the PA form in real time.

If you already know what direction you want to trade on H4 you can trade lower TF's using these kind of entries.

It's one for the toolbox. You can trade zones as well.

Worth searching down two traders on here - Batus and Mertch who are very good at trading a similar style but using SD zones as entries.
  • #5,609
  • Oct 31, 2017 3:46pm Oct 31, 2017 3:46pm
Quick DX review going into FOMC

Weeky is up with room to the upside.
Daily is up with new demand established last week.

H4 is currently showing a rejection off a tested supply zone. I'd be surprised if the dollar doesn't rally after a bit of a pullback into that S/R area.

With this in mind I'll be probably looking for shorts on EU tomorrow but will let H4 PA lead the way rather than any blind entries. Maybe EU can rally up a bit more since there's a considerable short bias at the moment with that head and shoulders 'neckline' we're at now.
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  • #5,610
  • Oct 31, 2017 8:18pm Oct 31, 2017 8:18pm
C -

Sorry to be off topic. Since you trade similar to the way I like to, I have a couple questions on your broker/account. I trade in the US with a futures account. This gives me access to 6e,6a,6b, etc. The USD pairs. My daytrading margin is typically 500 per contract.

Ive been looking at Pepperstone for Forex. Who do you use and what is your margin and minimum amount for opening an account?

thanks
  • #5,611
  • Oct 31, 2017 8:40pm Oct 31, 2017 8:40pm
also thanks for suggesting mertch and batus posts. I'm still trying to wrap my head around "up and under price pattern" thread and what it is they actually do. But it looks promising...
  • #5,612
  • Nov 1, 2017 3:11am Nov 1, 2017 3:11am
Quoting jack411
C - Sorry to be off topic. Since you trade similar to the way I like to, I have a couple questions on your broker/account. I trade in the US with a futures account. This gives me access to 6e,6a,6b, etc. The USD pairs. My daytrading margin is typically 500 per contract. Ive been looking at Pepperstone for Forex. Who do you use and what is your margin and minimum amount for opening an account? thanks
We're lucky in the UK that we can spread bet (trade tax free) on MT4. This is where you can bet £1 per pip / or point or whatever you choose depending on the instrument. I like how easy it is to position size.

I was using quite a good spread bet broker for scalping EU, but they are absolutely hopeless when it comes to the crosses. I'm shopping around again. I'd rather stick with spread betting for the future tax reasons and convenience.

Pepperstone are very good from what I've heard. I think all big respected ECN type brokers are a cut above the rest (ICMarkets, Fxopen, LMAX, darwinex etc).
  • #5,613
  • Nov 1, 2017 3:18am Nov 1, 2017 3:18am
Quoting jack411
also thanks for suggesting mertch and batus posts. I'm still trying to wrap my head around "up and under price pattern" thread and what it is they actually do. But it looks promising...
I hope they don't read this but the HHLL pattern is mostly nonsense in my eyes.... It's all about the higher TF zones, trend and PA and lower TF zones (with or without PA). They need to be clearer on that i think The pattern is just an interesting after thought.

Same for any other the stuff I see on here like pivots. These are a generic distribution of lines that display differently depending on your broker time.

Of course price will react off these if there are enough lines on the chart... and there's a demand / supply zone there..
  • #5,614
  • Nov 1, 2017 3:48am Nov 1, 2017 3:48am
Quoting C-12
They need to be clearer on that i think
Yep. I'm not on batus's ignore list for nothing lol
  • #5,615
  • Nov 1, 2017 9:49am Nov 1, 2017 9:49am
Maybe I'm wrong but Bastus trades quasimodo pattern and qm pattern were part of red's trading too.
  • #5,616
  • Nov 1, 2017 10:26am Nov 1, 2017 10:26am
Quoting MCFly
Maybe I'm wrong but Bastus trades quasimodo pattern and qm pattern were part of red's trading too.
My understanding of one part (but the main part for me) of red's trading is that he traded confirming PA (generally reverse whipsawing candle/chart formations) off of Sam Seiden type levels. His chart formations included but weren't limited to QMs. On the other hand, batus is posting something quite different in my opinion. His H/L/HH/LL stuff is very subjective but unlike red who posted real-time analysis it's impossible to discuss this aspect with batus because he only ever posts hindsight trades.
  • #5,617
  • Nov 1, 2017 12:27pm Nov 1, 2017 12:27pm
Sometimes H/L/HH/LL stuff has been presented like this with the annotation on the tales. On that particular criteria the limit sell UJ M15 would be around 114.22. And if the trade worked out it would be easy to curve-fit:

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I'm not saying the market won't tap that price but there's also another pre-assessment that can be made:


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This is (dare I say it) "standard" pole + flag stuff where the entry PA will either come off of a retrace to the base of that (potential) bear flag (price obviously needs to drop through first) or perhaps even higher off of the fresh supply zone @ 144.03.

I think the H/L/HH/LL stuff has a place in chart analysis but it makes up only part of the overall picture, and for me (a trader on leverage) is a dodgy entry methodology with too many pitfalls.
  • #5,618
  • Nov 1, 2017 1:19pm Nov 1, 2017 1:19pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} My understanding of one part (but the main part for me) of red's trading is that he traded confirming PA (generally reverse whipsawing candle/chart formations) off of Sam Seiden type levels. His chart formations included but weren't limited to QMs. On the other hand, batus is posting something quite different in my opinion. His H/L/HH/LL stuff is very subjective but unlike red who posted real-time analysis it's impossible to discuss this aspect with batus because he only ever posts hindsight trades.
At least in hindsight it's looks like he's profitable

I would like to know what Red is doing nowadays.
  • #5,619
  • Edited 1:35pm Nov 1, 2017 1:23pm | Edited 1:35pm
Quoting MCFly
{quote} At least in hindsight it's looks like he's profitable
That's the main thing.

I believe red blew up some fund account and then disappeared is what I heard. Second hand info though... Bit odd he vanished just after Christmas in 2011.

This is a friggin dismal FOMC by the way... But like my dollar bull prediction is coming good

I'm all in on this head and shoulders pattern.
  • #5,620
  • Nov 1, 2017 1:34pm Nov 1, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting MCFly
{quote} At least in hindsight it's looks like he's profitable
lol
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