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  • #481
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:45pm Oct 26, 2017 3:45pm
The US GDP quarterly numbers are going to be released tomorrow. They are important because GDP numbers are always important. However, quarterly numbers hold more weight.

Tomorrow's numbers are also important because they are the last major economic indicator before the FOMC statement next week. As I am planning for tomorrow's numbers, I will also have one eye focused on what the number means for the FOMC statement.

Even though I am fairly certain that the FED won't hike next week because they tend to only hike at the quarterly meeting (March, June, September, or December) when we aren't in a crisis, the GDP number could sway sentiment leading into the FOMC statement.

FYI, typing helps me think through my thoughts. Please feel free to offer critiques, alternative opinions, etc.
  • #482
  • Edited 4:45pm Oct 26, 2017 3:52pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Makes sense. What do you think of the ECB decisions? Remember Draghi says not to call it a "Taper". So we shall call it a "Downsize"
I must admit that I was caught off guard by the strong move against the euro based upon the plan announced. Looks like I might have taken my eyes off the prize: interest rates.

Kathy Lien provides a pretty good rationale for the huge drop: "More importantly, the ECB said they would keep rates at current levels well past the end of QE. That means the first rate hike would not be until October 2018. Nothing else mattered after Draghi made it clear that rates won't be increased anytime soon."
  • #483
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:55pm Oct 26, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting The Cheetah
The US GDP quarterly numbers are going to be released tomorrow. They are important because GDP numbers are always important. However, quarterly numbers hold more weight. Tomorrow's numbers are also important because they are the last major economic indicator before the FOMC statement next week. As I am planning for tomorrow's numbers, I will also have one eye focused on what the number means for the FOMC statement. Even though I am fairly certain that the FED won't hike next week because they tend to only hike at the quarterly meeting (March, June,...
That's true it does help - type away Cheetah
  • #484
  • Oct 26, 2017 4:00pm Oct 26, 2017 4:00pm
I think even if numbers miss and we see a 50-80 pip spike out of eu/usd..it will only serve as a bull trap and trigger hard hard shorts...the largest daily candle today in over a year..sentiment got really bearish really quick.
  • #485
  • Edited 5:44pm Oct 26, 2017 5:04pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Welcome! If you are new to thinking about the fundamentals, here is what I found to be most helpful: read all of "fader123" and "numbnuts" posts. They are better than any book I have read. Take notes, and study them. I have incorporated many of their ideas and approaches regarding preparing and trading. Additionally, these two posters have helped me grow: "razorjack" and "jakeparkin." Fader is the only one of the four posters that I mentioned that still actively posts on FF. Spend a month or two with Fader and you will wonder how you ever...
Thanks Cheetah - appreciated

Regarding Numbnuts - I have read through his posts - and they are excellent - especially the point about knowing where each currency is in an economic cycle
Its something that I would definitely like to do at some point- but its a lot of work.
Its great for swing trades
At least you know where you are at with a currency
Factor in geopolitical sentiment and currency/commodity inter-dependencies and you have the full picture of a currency
  • #486
  • Edited 10:58pm Oct 26, 2017 10:31pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Thanks Cheetah - appreciated Regarding Numbnuts - I have read through his posts - and they are excellent - especially the point about knowing where each currency is in an economic
Numbnuts' posts are Fundamentals Trading 101.

Fader's posts are Fundamentals Trading 201.

Numbnuts taught me how to use fundamentals to analyze and evaluate currencies.

Fader has taught me how to execute trades using my knowlege of the fundamentals.
  • #487
  • Oct 27, 2017 9:44am Oct 27, 2017 9:44am
Any thought on USD..what happen currently..I've read on forexlive and some others site..but I cannot brain too much
  • #488
  • Edited 11:18am Oct 27, 2017 11:06am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting nttfx
Any thought on USD..what happen currently..I've read on forexlive and some others site..but I cannot brain too much
Looks like profit-taking before the close of the London session before the weekend. The kiwi has been down essentially 9 days in a row. The loonie has been up 7 days in a row.

We just might be getting started, too. Here is what one of my favorite commentators, Marc Chandler, had to say in the aftermath of the ECB decision:

"Divergence is very much intact. Starting this month, through September 2018, the ECB's balance sheet will expand by 450 bln euros, while the Fed's balance sheet will shrink by $300 bln. Conservatively, the Fed can raise interest rates say two to four times before the ECB goes once."
  • #489
  • Oct 27, 2017 11:41am Oct 27, 2017 11:41am
They said that "dumping dollar over stock" on the new Fed candidate replacing Jannet Yellen. Likely Powell..But the main point overhere is their interest rate decision am i right? On top of everything, interest rate is the main factor in analyzing the underlying ccy movement? plus any major indicator and the rest? Sorry so newbie questions
  • #490
  • Oct 27, 2017 3:03pm Oct 27, 2017 3:03pm
I took two trades recently. The following highlights the thought process involved and the news I turned to in this case to make a final judgment. I relied mostly on Ransquawk this time within the greater context that I gleaned from various news articles throughout the week regarding the Euro and Cad. I give an example of one such article from CNBC, at least they’re good for something.

Special thanks to some of the recent posts here, they helped me zero in on some trades to achieve my best month yet.




Inserted Video
  • #491
  • Oct 28, 2017 6:57am Oct 28, 2017 6:57am
Quoting jchiogna1
I took two trades recently. The following highlights the thought process involved and the news I turned to in this case to make a final judgment. I relied mostly on Ransquawk this time within the greater context that I gleaned from various news articles throughout the week regarding the Euro and Cad. I give an example of one such article from CNBC, at least they’re good for something. Special thanks to some of the recent posts here, they helped me zero in on some trades to achieve my best month yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9B6DUFt7Nc...
Great selection on EURCAD
  • #492
  • Oct 28, 2017 11:54am Oct 28, 2017 11:54am
Quoting jchiogna1
Special thanks to some of the recent posts here, they helped me zero in on some trades to achieve my best month yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9B6DUFt7Nc
Nice trade. Congrats!!

How do you like Ransquawk? How do you use it in your trading approaches? I wonder if you can use it on a smartphone?
  • #493
  • Edited 12:24pm Oct 28, 2017 11:58am | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting nttfx
But the main point overhere is their interest rate decision am i right? On top of everything, interest rate is the main factor in analyzing the underlying ccy movement?
For me, understanding interest rate expectations and central bank guidance is essential. It takes some reading and studying before it really starts to make sense. After two or three months of studying it should make sense.

TBH, analyzing the fundamentals and their implications is not as hard as most people think.

What's also going to take some time is learning how to gauge when sentiment is strong.
  • #494
  • Oct 28, 2017 8:24pm Oct 28, 2017 8:24pm
I mostly rely on what's mentioned in Ransquawk's Daily US and European news sections along with the news announcements at the expected US and European times. I'm mostly working off a laptop for my trades but I'm sure they have an app for phones as well. Ransquawk has been excellent for up to date news and squawks. Their reiteration of the daily sentiment during the "Daily US and European news sections is key for picking strong or weak currencies to pair with.
  • #495
  • Oct 29, 2017 10:34am Oct 29, 2017 10:34am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} TBH, analyzing the fundamentals and their implications is not as hard as most people think. What's also going to take some time is learning how to gauge when sentiment is strong.

Lots of my fundie members told the same thing. But still can't differentiate between the MAIN and the NOISE. On the news calendar between the "data news" and speech by CB still got me confused.
  • #496
  • Edited 1:17pm Oct 29, 2017 11:06am | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting nttfx
{quote} Lots of my fundie members told the same thing. But still can't differentiate between the MAIN and the NOISE. On the news calendar between the "data news" and speech by CB still got me confused.
The simplest trade to do is to wait for a change in bias from a central bank

Bias can change from being very dovish all the way through to being very hawkish

For instance the BOC moved from being neutral to hawkish a few months ago I think it was in June or July. This resulted in the CAD gaining hundreds of pips agaimst the dollar. It was Carol Wilkins that made thr initial statement.
  • #497
  • Oct 29, 2017 5:47pm Oct 29, 2017 5:47pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} The simplest trade to do is to wait for a change in bias from a central bank Bias can change from being very dovish all the way through to being very hawkish For instance the BOC moved from being neutral to hawkish a few months ago I think it was in June or July. This resulted in the CAD gaining hundreds of pips agaimst the dollar. It was Carol Wilkins that made thr initial statement.

Noted Fader.
  • #498
  • Oct 29, 2017 6:28pm Oct 29, 2017 6:28pm
Right the BOE.

Here is the latest inflation and MPC reports

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...t/2017/aug.pdf

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publi...017/mpssep.pdf

What is telling is that Dave Ramsden said that the majority had the view that interest rates should increase in the coming months-
This is not based on the current rate of inflation - but employment figures and wage inflation (which is very slowly going up)
Since the testimonies of the members on 17th October - GDP had marginally improved as has wages (slightly)
The current 3% inflation is meant to be temporary - and according to members should have peaked in October
Growth appears to be slowly returning and this could be reflected in the BOE statement.
Will have a think on all this in the days ahead.
Will be surprised if its 9-0-0 though.
At the moment think this Russia thing could weigh on the dollar a bit
Having members of your political party being arrested - not really good for the currency
  • #499
  • Oct 29, 2017 6:32pm Oct 29, 2017 6:32pm
Quoting nttfx
{quote} Noted Fader.

The other thing that you can do is to look at a currency - note when they are likely to hike or cut rates.

Now if that changes ie - if they say - right we are not going to hike in 2 years time - but in the coming months, the currency will go up

The BOE did this on the 14 September.- and the pound rallied.

Central banks do this from time to time - so its a decent trade.

Right - that's enough for one day

GL
Fader
  • #500
  • Oct 29, 2017 6:41pm Oct 29, 2017 6:41pm
Reading some articles around by the morning. Just some sharing by Forexlive, thought something good to share here..same issue with BOE.
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