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The unknown

  • #21
  • Oct 27, 2017 11:15am Oct 27, 2017 11:15am
Quoting PipMeUp
Conclusion: By studying the price history we found that: - RSI generates very poor signal. I can explain why but it is out-of-scope in this thread. - Trends clearly exist and provides some edge even with a 15 bar lagging indicator. - The noise is so huge that the expectancy produced by the trend is inexploitable short term. - Because of this terrible signal-to-noise ratio test statistics are inefficient with market data. This explains why the pure random walk assumption is easily accepted.
I think i reached similar conclusions, in general.
So lets say i would, kind of sort of see a break of a previous high or low what you would see on lets say H4. Then IN GENERAL, i cant quite say why in mathematical terms, trading in the same direction as the break is SLIGHTLY smarter statistically speaking, then doing the opposite. Buts its no way near enough for sort of a career or a purely mathematically defined, easily repeated way of trading such as: If X happens then do A.
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  • #22
  • Last Post: Oct 27, 2017 11:55am Oct 27, 2017 11:55am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} I believe markets are not random.
Well the philosophical implication might be: "Is anything random?" or maybe "What does it mean that something is random?"
Also another implication is: "Who cares?"
What i mean is, if i make a definition of "random" and then maybe some set of data seem to fit the definition or not, what difference does it make? I have still only meddled in some boring definitions that my mind have conceived at some point.
I do know and are quite certain that no serious programmer have made anything random and all serious programmers knows this.
My signature is: "Classified".
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