PWT Reboot - Supply/Demand analysis and trading | Forex Factory

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PWT Reboot - Supply/Demand analysis and trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 26, 2017 4:55pm Oct 26, 2017 4:55pm
New thread. Distilling down what I've learned along the way in prior threads.
  • #2
  • Oct 26, 2017 5:01pm Oct 26, 2017 5:01pm
Posted these two charts in C-12's journal, which was probably not a good idea. Will post them here instead. There's an issue with these trades. It's actually one of the most important lessons I've learned along the way. Anyone care to guess what it is?

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  • #3
  • Oct 27, 2017 1:18am Oct 27, 2017 1:18am
Quoting simond2002
Posted these two charts in C-12's journal, which was probably not a good idea. Will post them here instead. There's an issue with these trades. It's actually one of the most important lessons I've learned along the way. Anyone care to guess what it is? {image} {image}
Well, how do you determine your entry and exit points?
  • #4
  • Edited 4:40am Oct 27, 2017 4:18am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting NeilWagner
{quote} Well, how do you determine your entry and exit points?
Apologies for making the rather cheap point but yep that's basically it. How does one determine the entry/exit? There's also one more thing that I won't detail unless someone specifically brings it up.

=========================

In the two or three years of running my old SD thread and using it as a tool to help build a trading method for entries and exits I kept coming back to one question, If discipline, efficiency and simplicity are the underlying principles of what I'm aiming to do, what are the most effective tools at my disposal? There was really only one answer that came up repeatedly, and that is, Before-the-fact analysis.

Interactive threads are a bit noisy for me, and Journal threads are obviously personal and tend to focus on hindsight stuff. But a Discussion thread based solely on before-the-fact intra-day analysis on a TF low enough that one can hopefully see some results satisfies my current requirement.

I'm aiming to post at least one chart per day and will generally focus on M15/M5. I'll include a brief description that can be open for discussion if anyone's interested. I don't intend to post candle specific entries or results but will post follow up PA if it seems relevant. I may from time-to-time post trades that didn't work out because in my experience there's more to be gained in the long run by doing so.

Cheers
  • #5
  • Oct 27, 2017 4:24am Oct 27, 2017 4:24am
Cable

Direction is down. Will wait for retrace before aiming to sell. Will scalp the flag up if possible.

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  • #6
  • Oct 29, 2017 12:17pm Oct 29, 2017 12:17pm
Quoting simond2002
Posted these two charts in C-12's journal, which was probably not a good idea. Will post them here instead. There's an issue with these trades. It's actually one of the most important lessons I've learned along the way. Anyone care to guess what it is? {image} {image}
I would love to try and guess but you have lost me there. From what I can see you are trading breaks of s/r and s/d as opposed to the traditional bounces from them. Or am I missing something in another timeframe?

My basic idea is say h1/m30 engulf then m5 engulf and trade the retest?
  • #7
  • Oct 30, 2017 6:38am Oct 30, 2017 6:38am
Quoting Swamipips
{quote} I would love to try and guess but you have lost me there. From what I can see you are trading breaks of s/r and s/d as opposed to the traditional bounces from them. Or am I missing something in another timeframe? My basic idea is say h1/m30 engulf then m5 engulf and trade the retest?
Well, again, I must apologise for making a cheap point albeit one that I stick to: without some form of annotation, it's not possible for the viewer to gain anything useful from a chart like that. In fact, the whole integrity of the chart could be brought into question; the chart could even be fake, right?

As I said, during the 3 years of running the other thread the one useful thing I returned to time and again was before-the-fact analysis. That's not to say there isn't a place for hindsight analysis (C-12's trades such as this one below have often been a good source of info for me), it's just that at the very least, useful hindsight analysis needs some form of annotation:

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He's clearly marked out the entry and the rationale is pretty obvious to anyone trading SD.

Personally, if I post near to entry point I tend to include some basic annotation such as this tiny horizontal line, which marks the break of support where bearish liquidity comes back into the market. As we know, in pole+flag terms, if we can identify the direction of the pole and it's short, then we aim to sell the tops of the retracing flags. This basic info plus the SR line and entry line provides enough data for a viewer to do his own research:

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Again, if I return to the original chart and compare it to the subsequent two I know which ones are worthy of my time and attention. And this is the point I wanted to make very early on in the thread.

In terms of live charts this is what I currently have on Euro. It needs to retrace before I buy it. If, however, the market prints a bearish pole and breaks SR I'll flip opinion and look to sell. In terms of a direct answer to your question, I'm waiting for breaks of S/R to give me direction before waiting again for price to retrace then turn in the direction of the original move (at which point I aim to get in). It can all be done on one timeframe.

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  • #8
  • Oct 30, 2017 6:59am Oct 30, 2017 6:59am
Dragon in M5 supply. One to watch to see how it unfolds.

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  • #9
  • Oct 30, 2017 7:27am Oct 30, 2017 7:27am
Understand, that makes perfect sense now. I think my brain is frazzled looking at all the complex things written about S/D notably RTM terms that confuse me. Ultimately it’s about theHH/Ll swings, and the force of them (flag and pole) and the clear trades.

Thanks Simon

Quoting simond2002
{quote} Well, again, I must apologise for making a cheap point albeit one that I stick to: without some form of annotation, it's not possible for the viewer to gain anything useful from a chart like that. In fact, the whole integrity of the chart could be brought into question; the chart could even be fake, right? As I said, during the 3 years of running the other thread the one useful thing I returned to time and again was before-the-fact analysis. That's not to say there isn't a place for hindsight analysis (C-12's trades such as this one below...
  • #10
  • Oct 30, 2017 8:10am Oct 30, 2017 8:10am
Quoting Swamipips
Understand, that makes perfect sense now. I think my brain is frazzled looking at all the complex things written about S/D notably RTM terms that confuse me. Ultimately it’s about theHH/Ll swings, and the force of them (flag and pole) and the clear trades. Thanks Simon {quote}
Just entered this.
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  • #11
  • Oct 30, 2017 8:27am Oct 30, 2017 8:27am
Quoting Swamipips
{quote} Just entered this. {image}
Just closed out.
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  • #12
  • Oct 30, 2017 9:09am Oct 30, 2017 9:09am
Quoting Swamipips
{quote} Just closed out. {image}
Great trade
  • #13
  • Oct 30, 2017 9:15am Oct 30, 2017 9:15am
Quoting simond2002
Dragon in M5 supply. One to watch to see how it unfolds. {image}
Ran the stops on the prior supply zone and then potentially changed direction. Letc..

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  • #14
  • Oct 30, 2017 9:33am Oct 30, 2017 9:33am
Cable. Couple of levels to watch. One is a zone, the other SR.

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  • #15
  • Oct 30, 2017 9:42am Oct 30, 2017 9:42am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Great trade
Thanks!

trying again...
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  • #16
  • Oct 30, 2017 9:48am Oct 30, 2017 9:48am
Pulled stop up as not sure about this as could be in supply but not sure.
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  • #17
  • Oct 30, 2017 10:24am Oct 30, 2017 10:24am
Quoting Swamipips
Pulled stop up as not sure about this as could be in supply but not sure. {image}
Until it trades below that lower blue box Gold looks still up on M5

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  • #18
  • Oct 30, 2017 10:35am Oct 30, 2017 10:35am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Until it trades below that lower blue box Gold looks still up on M5 {image}
I mistimed my entry there I think and didn’t want to try to ride it out.
  • #19
  • Oct 30, 2017 10:38am Oct 30, 2017 10:38am
Quoting Swamipips
{quote} I mistimed my entry there I think and didn’t want to try to ride it out.
Can be a bit hit and miss on this pair.

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  • #20
  • Oct 30, 2017 11:16am Oct 30, 2017 11:16am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Can be a bit hit and miss on this pair. {image}
Well done, lovely trade
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