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Fundamental/News Thread

  • #461
  • Edited 4:45pm Oct 25, 2017 2:47pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
Pips flying everywhere, caught a few... missed many.
Congrats! Which pips did you catch? How did you structure the trade? What were your thoughts leading into the trade?
  • #462
  • Oct 25, 2017 2:49pm Oct 25, 2017 2:49pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Very true. Here are the two main takeaways from the BOC statement for me: “While less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate." "The unemployment rate has continued to fall, but it's decline likely overstates the degree of improvement in the labor market." It looks like the hike forecast is being pushed into the 2nd half of 2018. Even though USDCAD has moved 150 pips, I think this trade still has legs. I am planning to get in on the first...
Excellent post Cheetah
  • #463
  • Oct 25, 2017 3:06pm Oct 25, 2017 3:06pm
Views from the banks iro the BOC

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ba...-idUKKBN1CU21F
  • #464
  • Oct 25, 2017 5:32pm Oct 25, 2017 5:32pm
I was just reading Kathy Lien's ECB preview, now I can see why Fader is sitting on the side line. Like Fader said yesterday, there are much easier trades. Today definitely proved that.

Here is what Kathy Lien wrote, "Trading the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement tomorrow will be tricky...Between the amount of bonds they plan to buy per month to the duration of the program and their forward guidance, there are no shortage of ways for Mario Draghi to placate the doves and the hawks. We know that the central bank's preference is to remove stimulus slowly in a way that emphasizes their accommodative monetary policy stance. They want to taper without giving investors a reason to bring forward the timing of the first rate hike and that won't be easy."
  • #465
  • Edited 3:27am Oct 26, 2017 12:11am | Edited 3:27am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Congrats! Which pips did you catch? How did you structure the trade? What were your thoughts leading into the trade?
Pretty straightforward really. Nothing sophisticated. Really, I was just interested in scalping the deviations on the data releases seeing as they are tier one. 5min candle straight entries and pullbacks. My bias going into Aussie CPI was short. For BOC, I needed to see confirmation from the bank that they'd been spooked by underwhelming data.
  • #466
  • Oct 26, 2017 12:20am Oct 26, 2017 12:20am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} ...It looks like the hike forecast is being pushed into the 2nd half of 2018.
Can you please elaborate on this point a bit more.
  • #467
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:13am Oct 26, 2017 3:13am
What a great thread over here..TQ guys for a great discussion..I'm going to read between the line from the start.
  • #468
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:23am Oct 26, 2017 3:23am
Quoting nttfx
What a great thread over here..TQ guys for a great discussion..I'm going to read between the line from the start.
Probably the best thread on FF. Certainly the most useful for me!
And big-ups to Fader.

Welcome @nttfx. Looking forward to your contributions.
  • #469
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:41am Oct 26, 2017 3:41am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} ... I am planning to get in on the first pullback on the hourly chart, or when the Asian session starts.
Assuming your not in yet and assuming we have a pullback as deep and the sentiment remains unchanged, 1.275 looks good for an entry.

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  • #470
  • Oct 26, 2017 8:49am Oct 26, 2017 8:49am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Can you please elaborate on this point a bit more.
Hey. I can't find the reference in the document now, but my reading of the statement seemed to suggest that they are moving some of their key forecasts to mid-2018. A number of banks are moving their forecast to March 2018.
  • #471
  • Oct 26, 2017 9:00am Oct 26, 2017 9:00am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Assuming your not in yet and assuming we have a pullback as deep and the sentiment remains unchanged, 1.275 looks good for an entry. {image}
I got in at 1.2790 while price ranged. Looking at the past price action on USDCAD suggested to me that price can go one-way on this pair for nine or ten days in a row.

Given the strong move caused by the big retail miss on Friday, I was a bit skeptical of getting in. However, because the central bank changed its guidance, I thought the strong move would continue. Had this been a move extended by an economic indicator rather than a rate decision, I would have waited for a bigger pullback.
  • #472
  • Oct 26, 2017 9:04am Oct 26, 2017 9:04am
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} ...Had this been a move extended by an economic indicator rather than a rate decision, I would have waited for a bigger pullback.
Makes sense.
What do you think of the ECB decisions?

Remember Draghi says not to call it a "Taper". So we shall call it a "Downsize"
  • #473
  • Edited 1:55pm Oct 26, 2017 9:17am | Edited 1:55pm
Quoting nttfx
What a great thread over here..TQ guys for a great discussion..I'm going to read between the line from the start.
Welcome! If you are new to thinking about the fundamentals, here is what I found to be most helpful: read all of "fader123" and "numbnuts" posts. They are better than any book I have read. Take notes, and study them. I have incorporated many of their ideas and approaches regarding preparing and trading.

Additionally, these two posters have helped me grow: "razorjack" and "jakeparkin."

Fader is the only one of the four posters that I mentioned that still actively posts on FF. Spend a month or two with Fader and you will wonder how you ever tried to trade FX without a decent understanding of how the fundamentals move the markets.
  • #474
  • Oct 26, 2017 10:13am Oct 26, 2017 10:13am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Makes sense. What do you think of the ECB decisions? Remember Draghi says not to call it a "Taper". So we shall call it a "Downsize"
To be honest, I don't have a good sense of the downsize. That is the major reason why I stayed out. I am going to watch it closely because I want to be ready when the BOE follows this path.

I had planned to study what happened when the FED downsized, but I couldn't get to it because I am trying to delve into the NZ government structure and plans since I have been in a NZDUSD trade since last week. The NZ Herald has been great.

Then I started planning for the USDCAD trade that I am in. I am going to read up on the ECB decision, and I will share some thoughts.
  • #475
  • Oct 26, 2017 10:20am Oct 26, 2017 10:20am
Fader, in some of your earlier posts you mentioned the need to pay attention to end of the month flows. Any thoughts about what you are looking at as October comes to an end?
  • #476
  • Oct 26, 2017 12:30pm Oct 26, 2017 12:30pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} Welcome! If you are new to thinking about the fundamentals, here is what I found to be most helpful: read all of "fader123" and "numbnuts" posts. They are better than any book I have read. Take notes, and study them. I have incorporated many of their ideas and approaches regarding preparing and trading. Additionally, these two posters have helped me grow: "razorjack" and "jakeparkin." Fader is the only one of the four posters that I mentioned that still actively posts on FF. Spend a month or two with Fader and you will wonder how you ever...

Yes..I'm really new to fundemental..trying to "brain" from the thread today. haha
  • #477
  • Oct 26, 2017 1:12pm Oct 26, 2017 1:12pm
Quoting The Cheetah
Fader, in some of your earlier posts you mentioned the need to pay attention to end of the month flows. Any thoughts about what you are looking at as October comes to an end?
Haven't you made enough pips this month!
The trade is to do with the money that is paid to the EU by the UK government

Basically we have to pay the EU alot if money. So the government sell sterling and buys Euros
Obviously keep an eye on price action.
  • #478
  • Oct 26, 2017 1:20pm Oct 26, 2017 1:20pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Haven't you made enough pips this month! The trade is to do with the money that is paid to the EU by the UK government Basically we have to pay the EU alot if money. So the government sell sterling and buys Euros Obviously keep an eye on price action.
Hahaha...It has been a great two weeks. I am in two trades that are up about 250 pips combined right now. Because they are USD trades, I am going to have to figure out how to protect some profits against a big move if the US GDP numbers miss tomorrow. If we get a good GDP number, I am going to try to ride one of these trades into the December FED rate decision, if possible.

Over the next few days, I need to figure out what the ECB decision means, and how to play the Nov. 2 BOE rate decision. I am looking forward to some robust discussions about these events in here.

UK pays the EU monthly?!? I need to read up on this.
  • #479
  • Oct 26, 2017 1:42pm Oct 26, 2017 1:42pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} ... So the government sell sterling and buys Euros Obviously keep an eye on price action.
This one just keeps eluding me. I must give some serious attention to this aspect going forward.
  • #480
  • Oct 26, 2017 2:00pm Oct 26, 2017 2:00pm
It's a moderate move
Helps if there is bullish sentiment on the EURGBP,
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