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Simple High Profit low Drawdown Triangular Arbitrage

  • #361
  • Oct 25, 2017 6:41am Oct 25, 2017 6:41am
Quoting nantong
No risk no profit,unbalanced system contain risk,where the profit come from,so don't be afraid of risk,you need to control it not to avoid it.To control risk you can control your open lots.
this is simple just normal trading. so has nothing to do with arbitrage trading any more. and that normal trading is of course possible with good wins. but how jvbjacques described it, its "stupiest" most expensive way to open such positions, so he looks to the trade of total beginners and cant see it. and its important to help him so that at least he comes to a level to judge, what he sees. or you will lose years, its like with his arbitrage, he dont want to learn basics and thats why lose this many time with things, who cant win.
in same time he could invent a really winning system just with normal trading.

in trading , you need to learn basics and you need to see, when you are wrong. if you cant see and judge things correct, even after many long term traders help you with mistakes, its a near 100% chance you will no get it to a good level in trading. first important thing is being objective, always. the market dont care for subjective.
  • #362
  • Oct 25, 2017 10:12am Oct 25, 2017 10:12am
@dukas_trader
Welcome back
I missed you

You are correct in that I am stupid when it comes to forex, but that is why I am doing this to learn.
I have been doing forex for 10 years on and off and programming for 33 years, but I learned more in the last few months about forex than in the whole of my 10 forex years.
Heck I even leaned both MT4 and MT5 code and in 3 days I learned Jtrader.
What fun.

I just thought that why must I learn alone and why not share what I learn and this thread is where I do it and WOW the response from most everyone was fantastic.

In my 10 years I have written way more than 700 EAs, but none showed the potential of this arbitrage.

As for unbalanced arbitrage not being arbitrage but normal trading THEN I can also say balanced arbitrage is also normal trading.
Normal trading covers a wide range of trading strategies and this is what these are.
Unbalanced is still arbitrage, but where one of the legs are not as well balanced as the others, but still creates a cushion against sharp movement, without completely removing trends and other potential profit situations.
Technically it is impossible to get a perfect triangular arbitrage mathematically, but we can get close
The bigger the spread and slippage the more unbalanced the arbitrage must be to make up for it and @NANTONG is correct in that with NO RISK there is NO PROFIT, but this at least limits the risk.

As for the EA I saw running the live account being a beginner for running profitable arbitrage for about 2 years or me for learning from what she did.
Then yes.
If that is how beginners do things then I am a noob, but that does not bother me in the least as I am enjoying the trip
Plus if I can make money like that noob then all noobs unite

I take in what everyone is saying, good or bad and learn from all.
I still have not reached the point where I can say for certain this is profitable or non profitable, but it looks good and it is FAR from a waste of time from everything I have learned so far

If you have to discourage someone from trying something new like this then discourage me, but leave other people out of it please
I can take it and best of all I agree with a lot of your points, but I am not one to give up on something before I can prove it without a shadow of a doubt that it will not work and I am not there yet.

And why do you think it is so expensive ?
Yes it is 3 trades, but you pay about the same price in spread as one trade that is 3 times the size.
Same rules as in "normal" trading applies to lot growth and trading according to a % of your account size.

I would love to know what strategy you are using.
I know the basics and I also know the basics alone will not make profit for you so you must have some sort of golden strategy.
Please share as I have seem some wonderful strategies that was PMed to me that I would love to look into one day and yours could be one of them.
I am sure you have something good you can share please.

In any case.
Enjoy




@VANILLANONT
I basically do the following for the 3 symbols.
1) I capture the current starting (1) ASK, (2) BID, (2) BID.

2) WHITE LINE
After every price movement I then do a triangular calculation using the starting prices in point (1) against and the current ASK, BID, BID and then calculate the amount of profit I would have had at that point.
The line is the profit at that point.

3) RED LINE
After every price movement I then do a triangular calculation using the starting prices in point (1) against and the current BID, ASK, ASK and then calculate the amount of profit I would have had at that point.
The line is the profit at that point.

4) So basically the 2 lines are the same, with a spread in-between.
I also add commission to the WHITE line to make sure I take that also into account.

5) I then calculate the average between the lines over time and use that originally as the entry and exit points, but EA 19 is not doing that properly.
Still to do is to recalculate everything after every trade open to get the new exit point seeing that with slippage the exit point and the WHITE/RED lines must move to accommodate the new starting slipped price, which is not a big thing, but takes time.



@EVERYONE
Well.
Time to go for a bit.
Enjoy.
If you guys get a break-thru then please share.
I will be checking in from time to time.

And for those thinking that there question is too stupid to ask or their strategy does not belong here.
I say bull twang.
The only stupid question is no question at all.
I have found that I learn the most from NOOBS, because they are not poisoned by others into believing that everything must work this way and not that way and this way I can start to think outside the box with them.

I have had many students that have taught my great skills from thing I would never have guessed is relevant.
Go mad and enjoy.
  • #363
  • Edited Oct 26, 2017 6:08am Oct 25, 2017 10:51am | Edited Oct 26, 2017 6:08am
Quoting jvbJacques
@dukas_trader Welcome back I missed you You are correct in that I am stupid when it comes to forex, but that is why I am doing this to learn. I have been doing forex for 10 years on and off and programming for 33 years, but I learned more in the last few months about forex than in the whole of my 10 forex years. Heck I even leaned both MT4 and MT5 code and in 3 days I learned Jtrader. What fun. I just thought that why must I learn alone and why not share what I learn and this thread is where I do it and WOW the response from...
i dont say you are stupid, just wasting a lot of time often with impossible things.

of course arbitrage is a part of trading, but very special. most arbitrage systems in mt4 only try to let the broker pay for your wins, so the brokers had then the problem with the orders that was with wrong prices quoted, that are not so in the market. but anyway, lets say yes, its one kind of trading.

to your point : "And why do you think it is so expensive ?
Yes it is 3 trades, but you pay about the same price in spread as one trade that is 3 times the size.
Same rules as in "normal" trading applies to lot growth and trading according to a % of your account size.
"
you pay much more spread in 3 currencies trading, then simple trade in one! plus commision, plus maybe rollover.
and you have much less margin use and trading because you can tade with much smaller values exactly the same. you need to pain it on paper or do some example calculations. thats important points you need to know.

when you know the basics , thats very good. but i have never seen one who knows the basics and then dont simple create working strategies. knowing the basics there is one part inside, how to find, develop, fair backtest , program and trade tradingsystems. learning the basics is not only learning some parts, you need to learn all basics.
  • #364
  • Oct 26, 2017 4:05am Oct 26, 2017 4:05am
Quoting jvbJacques
@dukas_trader Welcome back I missed you I would love to know what strategy you are using. I know the basics and I also know the basics alone will not make profit for you so you must have some sort of golden strategy. Please share as I have seem some wonderful strategies that was PMed to me that I would love to look into one day and yours could be one of them. I am sure you have something good you can share please. In any case. Enjoy
Quoting jvbJacques
If you have to discourage someone from trying something new like this then discourage me, but leave other people out of it please
Love the fine and smart answer here. But i think you ask too much, he will never ever show you anything as he never traded for real, he is just a talker.

Geting back to topic, would you think that taking trades near S/R and here depend on how we define this S/R- either as last swing high/low, either classic ones, either NY Close level etc would improuve anything? I mean to add as 'filter' this condition, to trigger as per se + S/R. Ofcourse, all getting down to GBPUSD levels.

thanks
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #365
  • Oct 26, 2017 6:07am Oct 26, 2017 6:07am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} {quote} Love the fine and smart answer here. But i think you ask too much, he will never ever show you anything as he never traded for real, he is just a talker. Geting back to topic, would you think that taking trades near S/R and here depend on how we define this S/R- either as last swing high/low, either classic ones, either NY Close level etc would improuve anything? I mean to add as 'filter' this condition, to trigger as per se + S/R. Ofcourse, all getting down to GBPUSD levels. thanks
the offical clown of forexfactory, fx trophy for no arguments is back .
i really missed you unqualified answers for some days

learn the basics man, then you will learn, that telling a intraday trading strategy to many people, will destroy the strategy. you are such a beginner, you dont even know so most simple basics.
  • #366
  • Oct 26, 2017 6:28am Oct 26, 2017 6:28am
@ jvbJacques
"In my 10 years I have written way more than 700 EAs, but none showed the potential of this arbitrage."
So if you can work all time on this thing,maybe you can make a living with this ea,and get rich and of course do not need to program for fee,but for fun.What a amazing thing to do,why not?You don't need to work for African greedy corporation and live a free life,you are free from your fight for living.If I were you,I would do this,save money to live for a period of time enough to make this thing online and collect some money to start trading for living.There are people living in hell,struggle to make a little money to keep alive,and because of greedy corporation and greedy big boss.I heart from the Internet that South Africa is ruled by blacks,they had destroyed the entire country and dominate the white people.Is it true?
  • #367
  • Oct 26, 2017 6:44am Oct 26, 2017 6:44am
Quoting nantong
@ jvbJacques "In my 10 years I have written way more than 700 EAs, but none showed the potential of this arbitrage." So if you can work all time on this thing,maybe you can make a living with this ea,and get rich and of course do not need to program for fee,but for fun.What a amazing thing to do,why not?You don't need to work for African greedy corporation and live a free life,you are free from your fight for living.If I were you,I would do this,save money to live for a period of time enough...
thats the problem with arbitrage experts. they looks good in theorie, backtest and demo account trading, people think this potnetial is extrem. they invest time in it and sometimes money. they check only later in reality that it cant work in this kind, hardware is much more important than software in arbitrage trading.
  • #368
  • Oct 26, 2017 6:50am Oct 26, 2017 6:50am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} thats the problem with arbitrage experts. they looks good in theorie, backtest and demo account trading, people think this potnetial is extrem. they invest time in it and sometimes money. they check only later in reality that it cant work in this kind, hardware is much more important than software in arbitrage trading.
I had forward test the unbalanced system I had post,it made 12% growth from this monday,and still growing,I can't wait to put it on live account,I am now thinking about the risk,yes,it contains risk,but this system surely show the potential,the key is to control risk,and then it will grow like rocket.
  • #369
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:03am Oct 26, 2017 7:03am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} the offical clown of forexfactory, fx trophy for no arguments is back . i really missed you unqualified answers for some days learn the basics man, then you will learn, that telling a intraday trading strategy to many people, will destroy the strategy. you are such a beginner, you dont even know so most simple basics.
you are such a f*cked up dude

i trade for living for more years now than you have been speaking about it. you're just a dirty mounth ready to 'teach' to 'correct' and to 'discipline' others when they want to try new things or interesting things. you're so ugly as character that not even your mother will kiss you if she would knew the truth about you

sorry to be so offtopic
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #370
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:05am Oct 26, 2017 7:05am
@dukas_trader
The cost I see per trade is not actually per ticket, but per trade group.
If you decide on using 1 % on your account then it does not matter if you use it on one ticket or 3 as in arbitrage.
The 3 tickets together adds up to the cost of the 1 lone ticket.
The cost is the same.
Actually the cost on swap for arbitrage is less than if you normally trade a high swap currency.

Theory is where everything begins, but the sad thing is that that is normally where it also ends.
I am one of those that like to take a theory to its logical conclusion and if, like this theory, I stumble across other related theories that show potential then I want to follow them also, while giving focus to the main theory.

You might be wring and I wrong, but I still have a lot to test before I give up and move to something else and so far I have seen some nice things.


@Fxentropy
This strategy in essence are using an extremely stable S/R.
The unbalanced one will use more, but also much less than in normal trading.

The problem with the current EA 19 is that its S/R are fixed and it need to be changes to calculate new S/R each time a order is opened to get the best exit S/R and then continue from there.


@nantong
That is a dream job to work on forex full time, even on other people's strategies.
I just like the math and calculations behind it.
I even made some A.I brains that can think for themselves and play games in a way to fool people that they are real .... for fun and the challenge

Problem is that if I go full time I need to save fund to support my monthly expenses, which I have done for other reasons, but to save money your income need to be more than what you spend, which in my case I spend more than what I earn and I only spend on the absolute minimum.
So no money to save and therefore I am reliant on other paying jobs to at least keep me going for as long as possible.

South Africa does have challenges, but I do not want to talk politics here.
You are welcome to read up on its laws, especially what they call BEE and who really benefits, nkandla and our president's swimming pool

Still there are millions around the world that suffers so I have nothing to complain about compared to most others out there, still I am trying to get out of the hole and improve my situation to the best of my abilities.
I am not one to go down without a fight and I can take a punch and get back up onto my feet.
  • #371
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:09am Oct 26, 2017 7:09am
Quoting nantong
{quote} I had forward test the unbalanced system I had post,it made 12% growth from this monday,and still growing,I can't wait to put it on live account,I am now thinking about the risk,yes,it contains risk,but this system surely show the potential,the key is to control risk,and then it will grow like rocket.
because unbalanced is same like normal trading, only with higher costs, ofcourse wins are possible, same a losses.
  • #372
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:11am Oct 26, 2017 7:11am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} you are such a f*cked up dude i trade for living for more years now than you have been speaking about it. you're just a dirty mounth ready to 'teach' to 'correct' and to 'discipline' others when they want to try new things or interesting things. you're so ugly as character that not even your mother will kiss you if she would knew the truth about you sorry to be so offtopic {image}
trade for living . good joke.

such unexperniced trader i have never seen faking trading for living, looks you live very bad with your skill level as pontential.
you have no arguments in all your posts, complete useless posts most of time, show big problems with often even extrem easy topics and look like having no plan of basics in trading.

faking to be good in forex is so easy, looks like you are a winner in your dream world, in reality (easy to see by how and what you write) you look like a bigger loser in forex. maybe you have only extrem bad character and problem with all basic knowledge, and trade for luck, but i dont know, difficult to believe you anything with this low skill level you show here so often. you can only attack people for nothing and without arguments, i have never seen any different from you.
  • #373
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:17am Oct 26, 2017 7:17am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} trade for living . good joke. such unexperniced trader i have never seen faking trading for living, looks you live very bad with your skill level as pontential. you have no arguments in all your posts, complete useless posts most of time, show big problems with often even extrem easy topics and look like having no plan of basics in trading. faking to be good in forex is so easy, looks like you are a winner in your dream world, in reality...
i only attacks rednecks. you qualify for that.

again, i trade for living for lots of time now...but i'll not bragg here nor showoff with my skills as i was teach to be a humble person and also i know that those who talk lot eat lot of sh*t too. you qualify for that too.

on the other hand, like jacques suggested, you should show up with something , other that barking around 'correction' correction'
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #374
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:19am Oct 26, 2017 7:19am
Quoting nantong
{quote} I had forward test the unbalanced system I had post,it made 12% growth from this monday,and still growing,I can't wait to put it on live account,I am now thinking about the risk,yes,it contains risk,but this system surely show the potential,the key is to control risk,and then it will grow like rocket.
That sounds very good @nantong.
I will look at it a bit later.
Code seems very simple so it could be a winner.
Keep testing and good luck.

If you keep getting 12% a week then try lowering the profit take to about 2% a week, which will still produce big profit in the long run, but will decrease your draw-down a lot.
Think more in the line of your profit on profit per year than over the short term and you will be surprised with how little profit per week you can be happy with.
  • #375
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:25am Oct 26, 2017 7:25am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} i only attacks rednecks. you qualify for that. again, i trade for living for lots of time now...but i'll not bragg here nor showoff with my skills as i was teach to be a humble person and also i know that those who talk lot eat lot of sh*t too. you qualify for that too. on the other hand, like jacques suggested, you should show up with something , other that barking around 'correction' correction'
you are funny, you showed already that you have no skills, and no will apologize for cant showing skills.
in your textes you are always to see as trading noob, so dont fake you trade for a living. people are crazy sometimes, write like stupid beginners and same time writing "trading for a living". maybe its only because you have a bad character with some bigger life problems, why you attack people without arguments, but whatever, live with your problems for you won, i dont hear any more your stupid blabla, i helped you a lot and you dont deserve it any more.

its so funny to see, that you are still the same loser type like from beginning some months ago, you try and try and can jumo over your shadow to be a normal person.
start having arguments, or clown of forexfactory will be my nickname for you, your realy deserve it, troll clowns always have no arguments like you. and troll clowns alsway tell how good they are and how good the are living from trading, same time writing only bullshit like you and show they are opposite of they write. again like you. is really 1:1 to see you as troll clown.
  • #376
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:27am Oct 26, 2017 7:27am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} you are funny, you showed already that you have no skills, and no will apologize for cant showing skills. in your textes you are always to see as trading noob, so dont fake you trade for a living. people are crazy sometimes, write like stupid beginners and same time writing "trading for a living". maybe its only because you have a bad character with some bigger life problems, why you attack people without arguments, but whatever, live with your problems for you won, i dont hear any more your stupid blabla, i helped you a lot and you dont...
lets say i lie i trade for living.......althought i do trade for living

what you do for living?????
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #377
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:30am Oct 26, 2017 7:30am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} lets say i lie i trade for living.......althought i do trade for living what you do for living?????
i live since 20 years from trading baby. thatswhy i have arguments to each topic and about each questions, opposite to dream traders, when someone has no arguemnts, you can see very fast, he knows not even the basics and is never ever a good real trader.

ok, i accept that you be a liar about it. and i accept that you still dream you trade for a living. accept your problems or come over it (some character problems you really have to clean), start learning basics, and some day you will get some wins.
  • #378
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:36am Oct 26, 2017 7:36am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} i live since 20 years from trading baby. thatswhy i have arguments to each topic and about each questions, opposite to dream traders, when someone has no arguemnts, you can see very fast, he knows not even the basics and is never ever a good real trader. ok, i accept that you be a liar about it. and i accept that you still dream you trade for a living. accept your problems or come over it (some character problems you really have to clean), start learning basics, and some day you will get some wins.
OK, can you prouve it?

If you show your statement for 2017 i will show mine too.

No BS, just pure truth!!

i Dare you, oxymoron full of sh*t! You havent been able to show a simple chart as to this date......but a statement!!
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #379
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:40am Oct 26, 2017 7:40am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} OK, can you prouve it? If you show your statement for 2017 i will show mine too. No BS, just pure truth!! i Dare you, oxymoron full of sh*t!
why, i dont be interested in a statement of a faker and dreamer and a man , who only can attack without any arguments.
how many times i did say you, when you stop to attack without arguments all whould be fine, but you always start to doing exactly this. i can only ask me: why?? what do you have by this, attacking someone and dont say any reason for it, not only one. all i did say here in forexfactory was with reasons , and when something is not correct in your eyes, tell me what post it was , and we can speak about (but it will be not easy to find some of this, because i try to speak very objective). but always your way its really boring. you can change your style, its only one step to do and i can start to take you at least serious and a dicussion would be start about some topics, not only about you.

next to it, showing statements is showing what? you show one account with 100% plus and have 20 account with 100% minus what you dont show???

i meet people who are worth it in reality to see in real who they are and go trough all parts, but what you say here, clear shows me, you really dont know basics or know what a real trader is. you ask for total usless things.

again: learn the basics, many of the things you speak about ,you would not say after learning at least the basics of trading.
  • #380
  • Edited 8:07am Oct 26, 2017 7:53am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} My account would show now to be in 6 figures. History of it will show you i went up to 7 figure then withdrawal. And its going back as history to 2013; Before than i had another broker and that history is going back to 2009. Same 6 figure account going into 7 figure. I cant fake a 6 figure account. nor cant play with it. Yes, i have some others smaller account that i test some new things (those at what you bark like a madmen) but im talking about main account herE. I dare you do the same or sssssshhhhttttttt! In any case, you are full of...
hear, thats the problem!
i started also some accounts with 6 figures because i had a good job.
and i also do sometimes withdraw 6 figures per month for business opportunities or real estates. thats normal.
but all we speak about here is our private thing. its useless to speak about, because anything we speak about here can be faked and not true.

and by the way: faking with photoshop or even with html (when using metatrader) is so easy, that if anyone trust anything online, he would be have a problem.

only by meeting someone in reality you can see by looking at their accounts, how they live, who they know, about speaking with them,..... you can trust someone. and most of time they use same brokers and are already known most of time inside broker..... i would never do anything other style, and i never met someone with money who did it different.

if you really do different by having some millions, then really one good advice: dont do it. there are so many fakers outside, you lose time and show private things to no honest persons. and time i can spend only once, money you can get back, time never.
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