Can you trade only one pattern and be profitable? | Forex Factory

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Can you trade only one pattern and be profitable?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 21, 2017 8:31pm Oct 21, 2017 8:31pm
As the title says,

Can you trade just one pattern and still be profitable ?

From personal experience I found that trying to trade every possible scenario drains out your account and mental well being pretty fast and just because you trade every scenario (or every pattern) doesn't necessarily mean you make more money than the guy who trades just one setup and has actually dedicated the time and effort to master that single setup. It could actually be the total opposite for the guy who tries to master everything. (But I'm not really sure about that, that's why I'm here asking) Do you agree with this ?

Would you suggest that I only focus on patterns that offer the best RR and patterns that I do well (meaning that I recognize them fairly easily) instead of trying to make sense of everything I see on the charts ?

I think what I'm worried about trading just one pattern is that , I may not encounter them as often, I really don't know the frequency of this pattern but generally speaking I think I should get at least one setup per week, I trade 1h and watch pretty much every pair except for franc crosses - I'm hoping by having many pairs on the watchlist and trading 1h the frequency of encountering that pattern will be plentiful per week - honestly speaking I'm satisfied with just 1,2 setups per week. What do you experienced traders suggest ?

On a side note, I tend to do well on buy setups than sell setups. Should I then just focus on buy setups ? (the pattern that I have in mind, high probability pattern to me , is a buy setup)

Hope I'm still making sense. If not, feel free to ask.

I'm just sick and tired of trying to trade everything (by everything I mean pattern, I don't pick out trade just mindlessly, even still it can be a tough task trying to make sense of everything I see on the charts).

On final note, I've finally found something that I could exploit and potentially make some money after years of losing. I think I should be able to pull this off, should I give up the rest of the patterns ( those can be tricky but I've been studying them, I should add that I don't do too well on those) and just focus on this pattern I have in mind, that I know with 70% probability I'll do well ?
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  • #2
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:38pm Oct 21, 2017 8:38pm
Quoting Piquant
As the title says, Can you trade just one pattern and still be profitable ? From personal experience I found that trying to trade every possible scenario drains out your account and mental well being pretty fast and just because you trade every scenario (or every pattern) doesn't necessarily mean you make more money than the guy who trades just one setup and has actually dedicated the time and effort to master that single setup. It could actually be the total opposite for the guy who tries to master everything. (But I'm not really sure about that,...
Yes ... Warren Buffett once said "Only swing when the ball is in your swing path!" ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #3
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:40pm Oct 21, 2017 8:40pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Yes ... Warren Buffett once said "Only swing when the ball is in your swing path!" ...
It makes perfect sense now,
I'm going to print that out.
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  • #4
  • Oct 21, 2017 9:01pm Oct 21, 2017 9:01pm
Trading only one pattern is the essence of successful FX trading. However, you must have the patience of a crocodile to trade that way......forget about bulls and bears.....you have to do what the croc does.....wait for it!!!
  • #5
  • Edited Oct 22, 2017 8:57am Oct 21, 2017 9:56pm | Edited Oct 22, 2017 8:57am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} It makes perfect sense now, I'm going to print that out.
The 80/20 Pareto Law supports the idea too ...
I'm going to translate it into "Do less to get the most of it", i.e., 20% of the right efforts could give us the 80% of the total possible rewards ...
Of course, none is superior when it comes to trading forex as there are unlimited ways to make money out of the market. It really comes down to individual preferences, personality, and mindset ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #6
  • Oct 21, 2017 11:38pm Oct 21, 2017 11:38pm
Well, there have many popular patterns in trading market! According to my own trading experience, only pattern wouldn’t be enough here! Forex is one of the most unpredictable market, here traders need deeper knowledge on technical and fundamental analysis.
  • #7
  • Edited Oct 22, 2017 1:03am Oct 21, 2017 11:42pm | Edited Oct 22, 2017 1:03am
yes, i trade only my most profitable pattern why should i lower my winrate?
increase your position size if you want to gain more but dont lower your winrate by trading inferior patterns just to have more trades.
  • #8
  • Oct 22, 2017 12:11am Oct 22, 2017 12:11am
Quoting mambomango
yes, i trade only my most profitable pattern why should i lower my winrate? increase your position size if you want to gain more but dont lower you winrate by trading bad patterns just to have more trades.
May I know the name please of your profitable pattern? Would you please mention the time frame that you use for this pattern?
  • #9
  • Oct 22, 2017 12:21am Oct 22, 2017 12:21am
Quoting mambomango
yes, i trade only my most profitable pattern why should i lower my winrate? increase your position size if you want to gain more but dont lower you winrate by trading bad patterns just to have more trades.
that's what I think I'm coming down to: to trade the pattern that has the highest probability and focus on what I do the best instead of going after everything, didn't make a single dime.
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  • #10
  • Oct 22, 2017 12:24am Oct 22, 2017 12:24am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} The 80/20 Pareto Law supports the idea too ... I'm going to translate it into "Do less to get the most of it", i.e., 20% of the right efforts could give us the 80% of the total possible rewards ... Of course, none is superior when it comes to trading forex as there are so many ways to make money out of the market. It really comes down to individual preferences, characters, and mindset ...
that's a good analogy.
you're a pattern trader ?

I think pattern trading <if you have figured out a good pattern> is the easiest path - thats not to say FX trading is easy in any way. Its equally hard, frustrating, and tiring. But, PA trading I think is the hardest to master - you're trying to trade every scenario. Again not to say it can't be done, I agree its all about personal preference and I think this is it for me. Glad to see likeminded pattern traders here, I just needed a push.
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  • #11
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:02am Oct 22, 2017 1:02am
Quoting NeilWagner
{quote} May I know the name please of your profitable pattern? Would you please mention the time frame that you use for this pattern?
im sorry but i wont give someone two years hard trading and research for free. there are people who do this but dont expect it to be the norm.
i like to trade on the lower time frames <=1H cause the SL/TP will trigger faster and you dont get caught by news, session changes and so on.
i encourage you to do alot of research and try out everything to UNDERSTAND the market, i.e. if you use a moving average or any other indicator you have to know how and why it works.
  • #12
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:04am Oct 22, 2017 1:04am
Quoting Piquant
As the title says, Can you trade just one pattern and still be profitable ? From personal experience I found that trying to trade every possible scenario drains out your account and mental well being pretty fast and just because you trade every scenario (or every pattern) doesn't necessarily mean you make more money than the guy who trades just one setup and has actually dedicated the time and effort to master that single setup. It could actually be the total opposite for the guy who tries to master everything. (But I'm not really sure about that,...
Yes, even Bruce Lee agrees with it :
I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times
  • #13
  • Edited 7:51am Oct 22, 2017 1:17am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} that's a good analogy. you're a pattern trader ? I think pattern trading <if you have figured out a good pattern> is the easiest path - thats not to say FX trading is easy in any way. Its equally hard, frustrating, and tiring. But, PA trading I think is the hardest to master - you're trying to trade every scenario. Again not to say it can't be done, I agree its all about personal preference and I think this is it for me. Glad to see likeminded pattern traders here, I just needed a push.
I think I'm more of a wait-&-see type of trader ... but, yes, I do use patterns to "spot" a trading setup, especially the 123/1234-Pattern ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #14
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:59am Oct 22, 2017 1:59am
Quoting Piquant
As the title says, Can you trade just one pattern and still be profitable ? From personal experience I found that trying to trade every possible scenario drains out your account and mental well being pretty fast and just because you trade every scenario (or every pattern) doesn't necessarily mean you make more money than the guy who trades just one setup and has actually dedicated the time and effort to master that single setup. It could actually be the total opposite for the guy who tries to master everything. (But I'm not really sure about that,...
If that one pattern occurs often enough and it has good risk to reward then yes, it's all you need. IMO it's better to be really good at one thing rather than not be as good at several things.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #15
  • Oct 22, 2017 3:22am Oct 22, 2017 3:22am
Ok before I get into some things here I want to talk about one thing you said which is:
" I really don't know the frequency of this pattern"

That quote makes me believe that you haven't tested this strategy of yours or any strategy really considering you said you had years of losing.

Also "I trade 1h and watch pretty much every pair except for franc crosses" Have you ever considered that some patterns don't work as well on some pairs so maybe you're losing more than you have to? I doubt you tested every pair for every strategy/pattern you have.


Now to answer your question, yes you can be profitable with just one strategy/pattern. In fact if you properly calculate your lot size then you could even be more profitable than with 10 strategies.
To give an example of this let me show you 2 of my strategies apart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled 2.png Size: 122 KB



Here are those both strategies together:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled3.png Size: 61 KB



Now as you can see they are both profitable and they are both profitable together but to stay within my maximum allowable drawdown I have to lower the lot size when trading them together which in turn would get me less profits over the long run.
Something that can counter this is to have a trend trading strategy and then a consolidation trading strategy. Then one will lose while the other is winning (in theory) which means your maximum drawdown is going to be less which means you can use a higher lot size which means you'll get more profits and faster profits.

A wise man once told me to become a master of my setup.

So in short, yes in a lot of cases it's better to just trade one thing unless you have strategies that work in different type of markets.

I hope that makes sense
Let me know if you have any questions.
  • #16
  • Oct 22, 2017 2:28pm Oct 22, 2017 2:28pm
I coded eas that recognize almost any pattern, even ealliot waves.

i'm a backtest freak, nothing beats simple things , even a simple MA works better than head and shoulders and c**p like that, which doesn't work at all.
  • #17
  • Oct 22, 2017 4:15pm Oct 22, 2017 4:15pm
Quoting Piquant
Can you trade just one pattern and still be profitable ?
Yes
  • #18
  • Oct 23, 2017 2:06am Oct 23, 2017 2:06am
TO be more precise (when I write at late night I may look an a**).

I would focus on major SR only.
the less the entries, the better.. one entry a month is enough.
it is not the GRAIL, also very, very boring but this is how it is.


I honestly can't say much about complex patterns such as consolidations etc.
these are almost impossible to backtest properly , it would take a lifetime
  • #19
  • Oct 23, 2017 2:19am Oct 23, 2017 2:19am
Quoting Piquant
Can you trade just one pattern and still be profitable ?
The trader/money manager that I mentioned here uses only one pattern, at least as far as I'm aware.
  • #20
  • Oct 23, 2017 4:47am Oct 23, 2017 4:47am
I TRADE ONLY ptz(potential trading zone)specially zone/area/level
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
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