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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #4,921
  • Oct 19, 2017 1:12am Oct 19, 2017 1:12am
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http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mavo...bronco/2284466
  • #4,922
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:01am Oct 19, 2017 2:01am
Hi guys, newbie on the block! (New to FF too)
Been trading a while, only got into S&D two days ago. I've read a lot of this thread and watched a lot of AKT's videos. This is my first real attempt at some top down analysis, with a question at the end. Top left chart = monthly, top right chart = weekly, bottom left = Daily, bottom right = 4H.

How wrong is this analysis for a first time, and what would be your answer to my question on the 4H chart. Should I even be taking longs here?

Finally, using a monthly and 4H chart together feels weird to me, if I want to consider the monthly, is the 4H too small to then dial down into?

Any help much appreciated!
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  • #4,923
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:33am Oct 19, 2017 2:33am
Needless to say, I am very pleased with this trade (10:1RR):

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Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,924
  • Oct 19, 2017 4:47am Oct 19, 2017 4:47am
Quoting olim64
Hi guys, newbie on the block! (New to FF too) Been trading a while, only got into S&D two days ago. ... {image}
Dear Olim,
I am also not very experienced in SD metodology, but if I may. What I see. M in consolidation but TL downward. W is in clear downtrend. D is also in downtrend still, no SZ eliminated. Upper W DZ you've marked is not a DZ for me, it did not eliminate any SZ. Lower W DZ is quite decent. H4 DZ 2 is qute dubios - very weak departure. DZ 1 looks better. Overall, do you expect W and D trend reversal? Everything is possible.
Regards
  • #4,925
  • Oct 19, 2017 5:17am Oct 19, 2017 5:17am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Olim, I am also not very experienced in SD metodology, but if I may. What I see. M in consolidation but TL downward. W is in clear downtrend. D is also in downtrend still, no SZ eliminated. Upper W DZ you've marked is not a DZ for me, it did not eliminate any SZ. Lower W DZ is quite decent. H4 DZ 2 is qute dubios - very weak departure. DZ 1 looks better. Overall, do you expect W and D trend reversal? Everything is possible. Regards
Hi Yunvic,

Thank you for the response, really appreciate your reply!
My understanding is that for something to be a 'trend', it must be taking out opposing zones while creating its own zones.
My view is:
M: consolidation w/ downward momentum line (not a trend)
W: Downtrend w/ downward momentum line
D: Coming out of a downtrend (demand respected) and entering consolidation as momentum line was broken and a supply zone (albeit not a good one) was taken out
4H: Uptrend/verging on consolidation: demand was recently created and we are seeing if it will be respected.

In regards to the upper W DZ, I feel it did take out the SZ that was created on the way down from the move (big blue candle). I could be wrong though.

I agree with you on H4 DZ, seems very weak in hindsight.

Overall, yes I think H4 & Daily are currently reversing to uptrend and would expect the DZs on M & weekly to hold, hence why I am thinking of taking a long on the H4, I just don't know where yet. Thoughts?

Once again, appreciate your time.

Regards, Olim
  • #4,926
  • Oct 19, 2017 8:26pm Oct 19, 2017 8:26pm
Michael, in confirmation entries video, you said the middle timeframe isn't needed, why is that? If I'm trading 1d, 4h, 1h, when prices get to the 1d S/D zone, I don't need to look at the 4h?
  • #4,927
  • Oct 20, 2017 12:07am Oct 20, 2017 12:07am
Quoting olim64
{quote} Hi Yunvic, Thank you for the response, really appreciate your reply! My understanding is that for something to be a 'trend', it must be taking out opposing zones while creating its own zones. My view is: M: consolidation w/ downward momentum line (not a trend) W: Downtrend w/ downward momentum line D: Coming out of a downtrend (demand respected) and entering consolidation as momentum line was broken and a supply zone (albeit not a good one) was taken out 4H: Uptrend/verging on consolidation: demand was recently created and we are seeing...
Dear Olim,
Sory for not prompt response. Yes, I agree, since HTF (M in our case) is in consolidation, we can expect a reversal. That is why we are SaD traders - to catch "falling knives" as Michael says. Then we must not lean on LTF zones if they are not nested inside HTF ones. In our case I would contemplate longs inside W DZ which is not reached yet. And I would not think of the trade in W-D-H4 sequence now. If inside W DZ we find D or H4 DZ then I will go. If the price reverts above W DZ I will not manage to catch the trade but I prefer to regret being out the trade rather than to regret of being in.
Regards
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  • #4,928
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:08am Oct 20, 2017 1:08am
Second demand triggered on USD ZAR, but we are not far from daily zone. Also SL almost hit, when starting.

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Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,929
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:44am Oct 20, 2017 1:44am
Anyone on FTSE100 ? , good sweet spot for FTSE100, thanks to BREXIT uncertainty, this instrument has been predictable for 2 trading sessions now.

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https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mav...bronco/2284466
  • #4,930
  • Oct 20, 2017 2:51am Oct 20, 2017 2:51am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Olim, Sory for not prompt response. Yes, I agree, since HTF (M in our case) is in consolidation, we can expect a reversal. That is why we are SaD traders - to catch "falling knives" as Michael says. Then we must not lean on LTF zones if they are not nested inside HTF ones. In our case I would contemplate longs inside W DZ which is not reached yet. And I would not think of the trade in W-D-H4 sequence now. If inside W DZ we find D or H4 DZ then I will go. If the price reverts above W DZ I will not manage to catch the trade but I prefer...
Hi Yunvic,

Thanks for the response. Yes seems I was premature, shouldn't be pulling the trigger until we are inside a HTF Demand zone.

A question to anyone, could someone run me through the exact purpose of each TF? I understand roughly what I'm looking for on each from watching AKTs videos but there is still a lot of uncertainty for me. Additionally, does anyone have a really good summary of how one goes through the "decision matrix" in regards to executing a trade once the stars have lined up.

Thanks, Olim
  • #4,931
  • Oct 20, 2017 3:04am Oct 20, 2017 3:04am
Quoting olim64
{quote} Hi Yunvic, Thanks for the response. Yes seems I was premature, shouldn't be pulling the trigger until we are inside a HTF Demand zone. A question to anyone, could someone run me through the exact purpose of each TF? I understand roughly what I'm looking for on each from watching AKTs videos but there is still a lot of uncertainty for me. Additionally, does anyone have a really good summary of how one goes through the "decision matrix" in regards to executing a trade once the stars have lined up. Thanks, Olim
I use such odds grading of the supply/demand imbalance. Each point at least 1 hour lecture to explain in detail. Look for odds enhancers on youtube or babypips.
I think this method of trading is inherently uncertain and discretionary. Not really precise rules... Just loads (months/years) of screen time to see what works and what not. No shortcuts.

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Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,932
  • Oct 20, 2017 11:35am Oct 20, 2017 11:35am
Quoting olim64
Hi guys, newbie on the block! (New to FF too) Been trading a while, only got into S&D two days ago. I've read a lot of this thread and watched a lot of AKT's videos. This is my first real attempt at some top down analysis, with a question at the end. Top left chart = monthly, top right chart = weekly, bottom left = Daily, bottom right = 4H. How wrong is this analysis for a first time, and what would be your answer to my question on the 4H chart. Should I even be taking longs here? Finally, using a monthly and 4H chart together feels weird to me,...
Hello Olim64.
Welcome to T.I.O.F
Good to meet you.

Thank you for sharing your charts. For a first post you should be proud.

If i may, i have added some thoughts for you to consider.

As to your question, firstly establishing your big picture chart is critical so you don't end up confused. Secondly, staying with 3 charts in the developmental stages and even as an experienced trader is a good idea to think about.

Best wishes
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,933
  • Oct 20, 2017 11:40am Oct 20, 2017 11:40am
Quoting xiqat
Michael, in confirmation entries video, you said the middle timeframe isn't needed, why is that? If I'm trading 1d, 4h, 1h, when prices get to the 1d S/D zone, I don't need to look at the 4h?
Hello xigat.
I don't recall the context of the discussion in the video. However, to clarify, when prices reach your daily chart you must first decide in which direction you are going to trade in by seeing which level prices are at, a demand zone or a supply zone. If they are at a demand zone, going long is higher probability. Now, how you go long is another discussion. Are you setting and forgetting or are you using confirmation. That is up to each individual S.A.D trader and must have clear guidelines for consistency. Using confirmation for example will sometimes involve using the middle timeframe and sometimes not.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,934
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:17pm Oct 20, 2017 1:17pm
Hello Duvdevan

GBPUSD as discussed

best wishes
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,935
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:27pm Oct 20, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting Akt
Hello Duvdevan GBPUSD as discussed best wishes{image}
i like that clean chart!!! but what confuses me is why you marked this zone right there ( the first one around 1.5500) i mean whats reason why there, how you know not higher ?
  • #4,936
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:41pm Oct 20, 2017 1:41pm
im preety new in that method btw... of trading supply and demand..... i'v watched that video from that guy .anybody here trade like this ?(link of video:
Inserted Video
)
  • #4,937
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:44pm Oct 20, 2017 1:44pm
I often see people online talk about "defining your edge" in trading and so I would like to ask you all the following.

Using SAD methodology what is OUR edge in the market?

I believe it is the multiple timeframe analysis combined with the selection of high-quality zones that allows us to be profitable in these markets and not just the zones in themselves. Id like to hear your thoughts.
  • #4,938
  • Oct 20, 2017 10:57pm Oct 20, 2017 10:57pm
Quoting weerus
im preety new in that method btw... of trading supply and demand..... i'v watched that video from that guy .anybody here trade like this ?(link of video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIf28eUY4MY&t=723s )
Hello weerus
Welcome to T.I.O.F
Good to meet you

As to your question, we are all supply and demand traders on this thread.

If i may, I wanted to kindly ask that the video is removed because it is against one of the established rules of this thread as set out on the first page and re-posted below as a reminder.

Please read the Rules below.

1. THE METHODOLOGY BEING REPRESENTED HERE MUST BE BASED ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND ONLY.
2. All interactions between traders here must be polite and respectful. We are all adults and must behave as such
3. Please do not use inappropriate or abusive language
4. bullying of other traders, name calling and rudeness will not be tolerated
5. If you trade Support and resistance, please understand that it is not the same as the supply and demand method we discuss here. (No one method is better than the other, simply different)
6. If you trade, using any other method than supply and demand then please consider looking elsewhere as we may not be able to help you in answering your questions if they are not based on supply and demand.
7. THIS IS NOT A SIGNAL SERVICE.
8. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN DECISIONS AND ACTIONS. THE SAME WAY YOU KEEP ALL YOUR PROFITS AND ALL YOUR LOSSES.
9. THE POSTS HERE ARE PURELY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. DON'T TAKE A TRADE BASED ON ANOTHER TRADER'S RECOMMENDATION (ME INCLUDED!)
10. Differing opinions about analysis are welcome and encouraged.
11. Do your homework, any questions you ask about a pair, stock, CFD, bitcoin, etc, must be accompanied by CHARTS so others can follow along and contribute.
12. The supply-demand rules a trader uses does not have to be the same as mine, as long as the trader follows his own rules and makes them clear to others when analyzing markets.
13. The thread is open to S.A.D traders, regardless of the time frames they trade. Only please ensure you mention you time frames so people can follow along for example, a day trader using daily, 240 and 60 minute time frames or a position trader using monthly, weekly and daily time frames.
14. No videos to be posted by other thread users

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,939
  • Oct 20, 2017 11:04pm Oct 20, 2017 11:04pm
Quoting StylesT
I often see people online talk about "defining your edge" in trading and so I would like to ask you all the following. Using SAD methodology what is OUR edge in the market? I believe it is the multiple timeframe analysis combined with the selection of high-quality zones that allows us to be profitable in these markets and not just the zones in themselves. Id like to hear your thoughts.
Hello StylesT

What a great question. Thank you so much for asking that.

I couldn't agree more. I would add that an edge is not just the one thing. It is a conglomeration of factors brought to the table by the person or people applying that edge.
Taking supply and demand as an example, different traders using the same methodology will very likely and rightly so, have very differing results.

Why? the simple answer is that it is never the methodology, but rather, always the person, the trader applying the methodology.

So yes, the edge is in multiple timeframe analysis done correctly and systematically (physical edge), the bringing together the pieces of information from each chart once that is done (physical edge) and producing a coherent, repeatable process with a consistency in being (physical and psychological edge) and in approach that gives confidence (psychological edge).

Identifying zones is the least of the challenges of a supply and demand trader interestingly enough.

Thank you again for that.

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,940
  • Oct 20, 2017 11:34pm Oct 20, 2017 11:34pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello weerus Welcome to T.I.O.F Good to meet you As to your question, we are all supply and demand traders on this thread. If i may, I wanted to kindly ask that the video is removed because it is against one of the established rules of this thread as set out on the first page and re-posted below as a reminder. Please read the Rules below. 1. THE METHODOLOGY BEING REPRESENTED HERE MUST BE BASED ON SUPPLY AND DEMAND ONLY. 2. All interactions between traders here must be polite and respectful. We are all adults and must behave as such 3. Please...
this is probably my favorite forum so far in FF.
i find people here are reasonable, responsive and helpful towards each other.
hope it can be maintained in this manner for the longest time.
thank you all and have a good weekend!
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