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  • #261
  • Oct 17, 2017 12:05pm Oct 17, 2017 12:05pm
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta remember my spiral drawing with skew and line chart..... . thought you understood it.... well done my friend. . regards Phil.
Hi Phil, thanks.

Indeed, it is based on the same principles, and the basis of which is based on fti's attack and rescue.

And when terrain, pulse and feel is factored in, the decision making is optimised.

Though in consolidation, the spiral's direction could be inverted?

Nonetheless I believe what you have there is what fti was trying to say about the mm risk model simulation, drawn out in picture form.
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  • #262
  • Oct 17, 2017 12:15pm Oct 17, 2017 12:15pm
Hi CookieMonsta

yes, it is just one basic variation of it, there are many ways it can be used in different circumstances we are presented with..... but it does take a lot of bottle (FTI -balls) to use it to its potential.

i still find new ways of adjusting and using it, but you can see why it is hard to fully explain, being dyslexic pictures are so much easier way for me to explain things.

i also now understand how fti used to beat the casino's which was fun to learn from this as well, not that i gamble unless i am on holiday but i do practice lots in the demo's to sharpen my money management skills.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #263
  • Oct 17, 2017 12:24pm Oct 17, 2017 12:24pm
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta yes, it is just one basic variation of it, there are many ways it can be used in different circumstances we are presented with..... but it does take a lot of bottle (FTI -balls) to use it to its potential. i still find new ways of adjusting and using it, but you can see why it is hard to fully explain, being dyslexic pictures are so much easier way for me to explain things. i also now understand how fti used to beat the casino's which was fun to learn from this as well, not that i gamble unless i am on holiday but i do practice lots...
Hi Phil,

Indeed, just gotta let it flow naturally till it becomes 2nd nature.

Well, a picture always clear things up , makes it easy to see what the actual thing looks like.

Well, there are some other kinds of techniques around mean to adjust the probability instead of the mm. Like instead of 1d vector, it goes into higher dimension, like multiple scenario where the winning condition is not as straight forward. But it offers ways to exploit probability on top of mm. Say brexit instead of just betting on gbpusd direction, can see all possible scenario, then see how to engineer the portfolio to handle each scenario. And sum all the probability up to tilt the edge. Well from what I know this is not taught in TAF thread, and I think should be big boys mo, just that I read it and had an inkling how they do it.
  • #264
  • Oct 17, 2017 9:45pm Oct 17, 2017 9:45pm
https://www.bridgewater.com/

jacque from taf once posted a video by ray daylio, and i got interested, in his stuff.

some interesting articles they put out, see how their permanent portfolio is being layered, there is correlation inside, handling all the various component risk.
so imagine if you implemented rescue and attack while employing the relationships in the permanent portfolio. essentially, the same logic as ro3k, where the money is flowing.
  • #265
  • Oct 18, 2017 4:03am Oct 18, 2017 4:03am
Today's dance just now was awesome, was caught out of position, I thought I was right, and it was a pullback, totally wrong on it all, and essentially ro3k lined up against me for a push, managed to move troopers into gbpusd for a short, and bring the entire account up.
Maximum draw down was about 1.5x of rewards.

Rescue was conducted with momentum when USD lined for an attack, in another pair.

Entire trade lasted about 1hr 20mins or so
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  • #266
  • Edited 4:59am Oct 18, 2017 4:42am | Edited 4:59am
Originally, I was thinking up of different mo to handle being caught on term trends and financial crisis type situations and having to trade out of it.

That was the origin of how I started looking for the 3 legged animal and options, theoretically if one can handle even these types of situation with ease, nothing is difficult at all.

The research and analysis of hedging and counter measures to handle such situations led me to the 3 legged animal and options.

Essentially the nick leeson curve ball he was hit with.

Notice that if you let a loss ride till 100pips down, but technically it has not broken it's trend, you are still 100pips down, and if that pullbacks wasn't really a pullback, but an actual reversal on the term trend, then you are still exposed 100pips, end of the day, it's still your duty to not let problems and risks get out of hand.

For large traders, the above usually is not a problem especially for professionals like fti, who have been around for 20 some odd years.

But for people like me who have constraints to work within, alternatives may need to be adjusted to the current mo. Essentially, I try not to let the situation on the risk to get out of hand in the first place because I don't actually have the capacity to manage it if it gets so far so I need to strike the problem near its inception.

Necessity is the mother of all inventions after all.
  • #267
  • Edited 2:04am Oct 19, 2017 12:55am | Edited 2:04am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Originally, I was thinking up of different mo to handle being caught on term trends and financial crisis type situations and having to trade out of it. ..., theoretically if one can handle even these types of situation with ease, nothing is difficult at all. ...and counter measures to handle such situations .... Essentially the nick leeson curve ball he was hit with. Essentially, I try not to let the situation on the risk to get out of hand in the first place because I don't actually have the capacity to manage it if it gets so far so I need to...
Hello CookieMonsta,

These are sound thoughts. We must adapt accordingly and swiftly to market, PA moves changes. Then, whatever an efficient instrument applied and fitting to a new unfolding scenario, it's within You and your capacity to respond. If one finds a 100% insurance policy in retail trading, it will be a "holy grail".
And it looks simple when I'm still fighting each day with myself with the target called either Profit or BE. One day you are just collecting green pips and getting bored with it, another day you are in bloody counter measures to make BE. All that is your input as seeds of experience to survive in markets.

Issue of my individual current stage is a curious one: when adding to attack (on a well playing scout) having a heavy position and caught in an opposite PA, not just to "desperately" rescue to BE but to turn it to a victorious battle. That requires tackling two factors in You: necessity to protect CAP, thus averaging just to BE so to destress, on the one hand; and necessity to keep a strategic scenario transforming the rescue to a smashing attack. Sometimes, it might be clearly seen, e.g., on H1 or H4. But you got BE+, squaring and breathing out there... and watching PA flying farther in your already out of battle favour... That could be named as a missed opportunity after so much sweat and efforts. Fti calls the best quality of a trader to turn recovery into victory after surviving market punches (on notorious fakes and stop hunting, or after bad timed entries).

I well understand your time restricting factor that does not leave you opportunity to follow further situation developments. Sometimes I'm also just squaring out on London close and that is to see the next morning "the missed opportunity" passing aside.

Keeping my fingers firmly crossed for your hold and success, as well thanking for possibility to exchange opinions in your thread,

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #268
  • Edited 1:52am Oct 19, 2017 1:05am | Edited 1:52am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, These are sound thoughts. We must to adapt accordingly and swiftly to market, PA moves changes. Then, whatever an efficient instrument applied and fitting to a new unfolding scenario, it's within You and your capacity to respond. If one finds a 100% insurance policy in retail trading, it will be a "holy grail". And it looks simple when I'm still fighting each day with myself with the target called either Profit or BE. One day you are just collecting green pips and getting bored with it, another day you are in bloody counter...
Hi exnav,

I am also currently working on being more efficient with the way I attack and rescue, primarily also that what you mentioned above, when in heavy attack, but caught flanked out of position by enemy unit. This is quite a difficult situation to handle, mainly because of the size factor, sometimes when flanked out, it may be because terrain is in the process of changing, and because terrain is in process of changing, cross current can get wild, if that is the case, being nimble is required, hence the requirement will probably be to cut down skew for those in good standing, then let bleeding cont if form still ok or rotate the rest out. Mainly is size needs to be pared down, as the main killer will be from size.

What I realized is that sometimes if flanked, may be best skew down till opening presents itself for a good counter push for rescue.

Mainly it has to do with how much more reserve troopers you have left. If you are left with last level, say level 4, it's death battle scenario, as you put in scout, level 1,2,3 for attack, intending to ride out, but level 4, is last level and if you do engage it in there for a rescue, you are essentially in death battle mode, once engaged there, if fail, you only have a choice to cutting loss or partial loss to then bring book back. Or become rogue trader. Well that's the situation I was figuring, how to avoid the rogue trader part.

Defense and book preservation must come first before attack.

That was in part of Fti's advice, he never really said much about rewards, just ability to recover from bad positions. As long as you can recover from curve ball by market, the rest is ants work.

Sometimes it's not about being able to turn bad situations into good ones, only when market allows then you can do so, I have been hit many times by such situations where I forced rescue, needless to say, it never ends well, read about the green David situation in taf thread, fti expressed my warn about those trades, how you manage those kinds of situation is what makes you good at defense, profits rarely need to be managed so well compared to losses, meanwhile risk control must be number 1.

1 counter measure I have is, always keep 1 last final rescue section in reserve in case of contingency. These are activated only when you are flanked.
  • #269
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:01am Oct 19, 2017 2:01am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} fti expressed my warn about those trades, how you manage those kinds of situation is what makes you good at defense, profits rarely need to be managed so well compared to losses, meanwhile risk control must be number 1.
Hello CookieMonsta,

That's right. And that's why to me it's a dilemma. Because Preservation of CAP is number 1. Then, if you are skillfull enough and do have nimbleness and capital to react to further unpredictable, you may converse the Rescue into Offensive. And that requires your "steal balls". In fact, I'm considering this skill to stand the severe punches and turn it to your advantage onward as an essential quality rise. Or, mark of high class: strategic vision, defence, response and victory.

I also like this of FTI (post No 51108 TAF):
"your confusion is comes from your position bias(predictions) and expectations.
you have to constantly read whats happening in markets.
expectations is just that expectation. but you must respond to what markets are doing.
This problem of many traders.
They make decision and they write everything in stone. if situation changes, they not know how to respond to the change.
This the rigidity i talking about.
This especially so if trader is dependent on systems and indicators. Or waiting confirmations.
Makes trader non responsive to change and unable to move.
nimbleness is a trained mental responds, is not words.
but also not expect to be super nimble. Comes with experience and emotional stability.
is like exercise, the more one does it, the easier it gets."

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #270
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:05am Oct 19, 2017 2:05am
Take for example now, seems flows are from eurgbp, it's trending nicely now. The downside is ro3k for eurusd and gbpusd is tearing, hrly of eurusd is pointing up, gbpusd is pointing down, usdjpy tilt somewhere else, didn't track that, lots cross current, if you want trade, need be nimble on both eurusd and gbpusd front, watch for when eurusd and gbpusd and usdjpy all 3 start to sync up and point in 1 direction, terrain is messy and possibly non riding.

Sigh, market seems confused, out with half a percent.
  • #271
  • Edited 2:34am Oct 19, 2017 2:10am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, That's right. And that's why to me it's a dilemma. Because Preservation of CAP is number 1. Then, if you are skillfull enough and do have nimbleness and capital to react to further unpredictable, you may converse the Rescue into Offensive. And that requires your "steal balls". In fact, I'm considering this skill to stand the severe punches and turn it to your advantage onward as an essential quality rise. Or, mark of high class: strategic vision, defence, response and victory. I also like this of FTI (post No 51108 TAF):...

That is the key there, however, notice that if you withstand the punches, if you overdo it, and overcommit, then you become rigid. There is a line of difference between being able to take the punches and do counter attack( must be because your mm and logistics allow you the capacity to counter attack), Vs blindly taking punches then holding on to hope. All things must be within moderation. Too much of being too aggressive, may kill your book faster. Not wrong the mindset, but sometimes situation does not allow, better to not force, risk control must be in place, the trader must always be in control.

Anyway what you highlighted, there is a sweet spot to the nimbleness, too much you end up a scalper, too little you get caught in a bad wave then that's it. Takes times and alot of experience to find the sweet spot.

Read the curve ball in the first 100page, which green David encountered, too aggressive in the approach. read Fti's response to him.

If you have 1x scout out, even if you 100pips down, you have 50 troopers in reserve, you can still rescue effectively, but when you only have say 50x in and left 50x in reserve, your rescue will not be effective depending on terrain, best situation is simply damage control and breakeven, should not be focusing on attack anymore.

It's mainly in mm and logistics, Vs terrain, pulse and feel with strategic management is what will tilt the edge in your favour.
  • #272
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:36am Oct 19, 2017 2:36am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} That is the key there, however, notice that if you withstand the punches, if you overdo it, and overcommit, then you become rigid. There is a line of difference between being able to take the punches and do counter attack, Vs blindly taking punches then holding on to hope. All things must be within moderation. Too much of being too aggressive, may kill your book faster. Not wrong the mindset, but sometimes situation does not allow, better to not force. Anyway what you highlighted, there is a sweet spot to the nimbleness, too much you end...
We've certainly been there: overcommit, too aggressive. That what is likely to be overconfident and over leveraged.

The way I'm practising is as follow: read a strategic picture, enter on your strategic point; if scouts are sauccessful, add and make a swift attack; if there's a suddenn opposite move and you're committed to rescue, realize and reread objectively (according to the above strategic view and PA flow) the terrain when at BE whether it's still favourable to further attacking, or it must be saved right now to prevent losses. Again, your decision should be grounded also on your capacity. Not only CAP (funds and time) but also your current mindset. E.g., if you feel exhausted in the recovery battle and have no balls to proceed, then of course, BE = Pre CAP.

You are certainly to the point on "better to not force". No greed, revenge and stubborn rush. It must come with practising, honing and always watching sizes and limits.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #273
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:39am Oct 19, 2017 2:39am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} We've certainly been there: overcommit, too aggressive. That what is likely to be overconfident and over leveraged. The way I'm practising is as follow: read a strategic picture, enter on your strategic point; if scouts are sauccessful, add and make a swift attack; if there's a suddenn opposite move and you're committed to rescue, realize and reread objectively (according to the above strategic view and PA flow) the terrain when at BE whether it's still favourable to further attacking, or it must be saved right now to prevent losses. Again,...

Yes, exactly what you wrote above, is the right mo and frame of mind, the rest is simply more experience, and fine tuning and improving core attack and rescue abilities.
  • #274
  • Edited 10:21pm Oct 19, 2017 9:14am | Edited 10:21pm
now that i got the terrain thingy sorted out, its all about the core basics and becoming more and more efficient in attack and rescue.

Everything is centered around attack and rescue and terrain, essentially the fundamentals of basic trading mo and then the advance stuff kicks in to help enhance and provide strategic alternatives for certain tricky situations single pair trading can't handle.
  • #275
  • Oct 20, 2017 9:37pm Oct 20, 2017 9:37pm
First loss since the winning streak, 2x daily p&l, hmm book still up.

lets play a game, its to promote core trading ability and train core basic skills.

how long of a winning streak can i go on? it should not just be how much i lose when i cut loss and how much i win when i make money, but how often i have to cut losses, and to reach fti's standard, i have to see how i can push myself pass my current limits and improve.

hence, lets see how many day i can go on without losing money.
  • #276
  • Oct 21, 2017 3:34am Oct 21, 2017 3:34am
Fti once wanted to organise the bourse game, but his energy and health did not allow it.

It's an interesting game. Basically what it is is this, suppose you are long yen futures. Now fti as the game master, well throw curve balls at the participants, and see how they handle it, say an earthquake in Japan, like the nick leeson scenario, everyone is suppose to be train to reflex out of those kinds of situations.

This is the kind of thing the bourse game is suppose to simulate, as dealers of banks are to be able to handle such situations and keep the banks reserve and principle safe, why? The average citizens money is inside that's why.

Actually, normal retail traders can play such games too, it would also teach them what's required in order to handle such extreme scenarios. Which is good, at least you don't get a blown up book.
  • #277
  • Oct 21, 2017 10:39am Oct 21, 2017 10:39am
Pretty interesting stuff and this guy is from the 1950, yet we don't learn about stuff like this in school, so weird.
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  • #278
  • Edited 4:36am Oct 22, 2017 4:11am | Edited 4:36am
EUR up
GBP up
USDX up
Yen down

And I must emphasize, usdx, because usdx is a weighted price against all other currencies.

Could this lead to new insight of how ro3k and the butterfly work?

Notice that I have been reading price action with the assumption that USD is the driver, this may be a logical fallacy, implying that some of the tearing and mismanagement is because of ineffective read of ro3k and terrain.

But this has to do with the ro3k and 3 legged animal and butterfly.

Theoretically if caught out by tsunami waves, this should kick in well and protect book value if done correctly, that's why guess.

Gotta figure this out, there is huge value in this. My intuition tells me this can allow for infinitely defense that single pair cannot do.

The butterfly works on the basis that how the currency would flow, say, EUR up, GBP up, yen down, USD up, chf down, meaning, you want exposure to EUR GBP USD up, and yen and chf down so, you can try crossing them and USD vs AUD nzd and cad to provide it the 3rd USD exposure.

Implication is when butterflying you are feeling the pulse of each specific currency, giving them a score by feel then deciding how to take which pair to trade. Say eurusd and gbpusd is opposite, and tearing best to trade eurgbp since the year will generate the best momentum. Since what we do know and can see, is eurusd moving up and gbpusd moving down, we know relative to USD, eur is strengthening and GBP is weakening, but USD itself, well I'm not sure, coz maybe I need yen and the other sirs to guestimate it.
  • #279
  • Oct 22, 2017 12:13pm Oct 22, 2017 12:13pm
Fti is right, when you become successful, beware of attracting unwanted attention and unnecessary trouble.

In this case perhaps there is always incentive to be a retail trader rather than be a professional trader, just a title nothing much otherwise, only difference, you lose your own money or someone else's. acting dumb and weak to hide you true skill, now that's got art of war written all over it.
  • #280
  • Oct 23, 2017 1:05am Oct 23, 2017 1:05am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Fti is right, when you become successful, beware of attracting unwanted attention and unnecessary trouble. In this case perhaps there is always incentive to be a retail trader rather than be a professional trader, just a title nothing much otherwise, only difference, you lose your own money or someone else's. acting dumb and weak to hide you true skill, now that's got art of war written all over it.
Hello CookieMonsta,

I'm unsure if it's in line with your current mind flow. Thus, I would agree there's a dilemma between "friendship, genuine experience sharing vs its abusing by cons, or distraction, etc."

So, I'm bearing in mind the following of FTI: "I pray that all of you use it carefully and trade with prudence , make your financial independence.
Do not be hesty, do your training in small account until you prove to yourselfs your skills and abilities before selling the house.
Remember, skills can only be polished thru experience. No shortcuts.
...So i hope those who benefitted will carry the baton forward for the others."
But achievements can only be felt over time. It is not your norm, but it will redirect your norm. New things are good espcially if one can feel its impact. But need put time then the impact is real.
Otherwise is just infactuationand excitement will derail you."

And: "Trading is very lonely thingy.Its you and your mind.You build distractions , new stuff, then all lost... This is a business.
Friendshipp and business cannot mix. IS ABSOLUTE CONFLICT OF INTEREST. If want be friends not have the business, and vice versa.
there is only one way help friends.
each to his own, stable on the mindset, each to each's MO as developing forward.
We distract each other and all end up splashed. There is no holy grail.
Only right thinking , right mindset, right actions."

And: "reading things can be useful. only if one intends mastering it. reading is good. makes one aquire ability argue and debate subject.
mastering requires practise. practitioners seldom argue, they too busy."

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
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