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  • #18,541
  • Oct 19, 2017 8:03am Oct 19, 2017 8:03am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} Thanks for your advice Marko. I don't think I'm able to keep same discipline for whole year. So decided to continue trading "confluence" but less risky. Same lot size and only one trade for day. Buddies could see my TE still on profile. For those interested in trading "confluence" (with Alien) I'll post a brief explanation. Here are the last statistics. {image}
Hello jpadvisor, I would be really interested in your explanation. Thanks in advance!
  • #18,542
  • Oct 19, 2017 12:18pm Oct 19, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting Songok
Hey there fellow aliens Jpadvisor in he's post with superior results inspired me to take a look back at my own trading. JP agreed to take a closer look at my trades and I think it will be great for all the aliens here. For starters a little background: I trade alien system for more than a year now with various results You can see my trade explorer for more detail, although I trade on this account some other systems so its not only my performance of the alien system. As You can see since January 2017 I have got quite good results, I had about 60%...
Hi mate, I don't think you keep the best from Alien's system. I don't say you don't know or don't follow the system. Simply saying to keep the best.
To use Alien's at best means to use all features and indies together.
Slingshots on Stoch. are nice but only in very trending markets and where 100 Stoch is over 80 or under 20. Otherway is better to ride the DS trades with RSIOMA.
Other thing I suggest is to have a MTF analysis of each pair (make a profile for each) based on a screen made as follows. This way you detect one setup on higher TF and then you come back to 5 M or also 1 M to pinpoint your entry.
RSIOMA and Stoch. can give you a lot of hints but for the best signal you must have on your side also the ADX. With this I mean not only green or red but also to analyze the slopes of ADX to see if are slowing down or rising and if you detect there a divergence.
Only if you have all the odds in your favor you enter a trade.
In your charts there were a lot of points where entry was safer or clearer than yours. This is not a mistake but is using Alien s. not at its best.
I'll come to this later anyway. I want to point out that using Alien's at best and "confluence" you can reach accuracy of 80% to me.
Confluence is when you put together the fundamental analysis with TA and other instruments like support and resistence; Fibonacci and also price action.
Doing this you'll have a sure statistical edge and that is what I call "trading confluence".
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,543
  • Oct 19, 2017 12:41pm Oct 19, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting Songok
Hey there fellow aliens Jpadvisor in he's post with superior results inspired me to take a look back at my own trading. JP agreed to take a closer look at my trades and I think it will be great for all the aliens here. For starters a little background: I trade alien system for more than a year now with various results You can see my trade explorer for more detail, although I trade on this account some other systems so its not only my performance of the alien system. As You can see since January 2017 I have got quite good results, I had about 60%...
See possible mistakes and better longs on EA.
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,544
  • Oct 19, 2017 12:56pm Oct 19, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting Songok
Hey there fellow aliens Jpadvisor in he's post with superior results inspired me to take a look back at my own trading. JP agreed to take a closer look at my trades and I think it will be great for all the aliens here. For starters a little background: I trade alien system for more than a year now with various results You can see my trade explorer for more detail, although I trade on this account some other systems so its not only my performance of the alien system. As You can see since January 2017 I have got quite good results, I had about 60%...
See on EJ short: as you say was not a grade A trade but still correct. On bottom though there was divergence on Stoch. and appaired an Alien's hook. Time to exit the trade as Alien told.
To me you have to search for better trades and to do this you could use fundamentals or a strenght meter or a DB like Nihilist made.
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,545
  • Oct 19, 2017 1:21pm Oct 19, 2017 1:21pm
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} See possible mistakes and better longs on EA. {image} {image}
The first picture here also shows clearly the best entry is after ADX compression and begin to expand - move is often over or consolidating by the time ADX reach full expansion.

Also as Tradefinder say, you need Bollingers to better see the breakouts which happen at same time as ADX begin to expand.
  • #18,546
  • Oct 19, 2017 1:36pm Oct 19, 2017 1:36pm
Quoting Zimbinga
{quote} Also as Tradefinder say, you need Bollingers to better see the breakouts which happen at same time as ADX begin to expand.
Agree with this, ADX is classed as momentum. This is why it takes time to get going but once established the 89, 144 keep rolling when price is resting to suggest staying in the trade. BB is indication of velocity, so its like Sto's in being more leading but when combined with the BBS they give a goood jump out of the gate and generally is enough to get a BE stop in place as the ADX then powers up.

Simple physics says, Momentum is Mass x Velocity, so if you see a BBS where its red as this nears the end of the squeeze the BB upper and lower go in opposite directions, this happens typically at the last few BBS's and usually before the ADX powers up. Keep watching this characteristic and you start to get a very good gauge if the move is a larger one, a fake out or a drift of death.

This works on a single TF, but if you can get to seeing MTF of this velocity - Boom and it is high probability. Remember velocity is like your cars accelerator pedal, it is not directional it just propels the car forward to gain momemtum, so use the RSIOMA and 21/100sto's to gauge direction, these are your steering wheel...

This again maintains Aliens key concept of visual indication, put the BB on Alien's standard setting and study the BBS interaction, then combine with BB bubble characteristic i have shared on pullbacks

This all helps helps be on the right side of the market and is helpful to not be faked out (Sto's do this sometimes) and also the situation when the ADX looks all powered up, but its the final exhaustion push, which initially confused me a lot

  • #18,547
  • Oct 19, 2017 1:42pm Oct 19, 2017 1:42pm
That EJ short for me is easy,not in spotting the divergence on 8 sto but on 21 sto.
And before i enter a trade,i try to foresee if is gonna make a divergence or not to be aware that will be short lived.
And by forecast,i mean when you see a pullback and 21 sto rises significantly and you expect a test of the bottom then you know that PA will make a last run before pullback again or reverse.
Most of these trades could turned profitable if he placed a breakeven point.
Not full time trader?
There's no problem,we have EA's to manage our trades and VPN's to put them alive 24/7.
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Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,548
  • Edited 2:09pm Oct 19, 2017 1:52pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting marcof91
That EJ short for me is easy,not in spotting the divergence on 8 sto but on 21 sto. And before i enter a trade,i try to foresee if is gonna make a divergence or not to be aware that will be short lived. And by forecast,i mean when you see a pullback and 21 sto rises significantly and you expect a test of the bottom then you know that PA will make a last run before pullback again or reverse. Most of these trades could turned profitable if he placed a breakeven point. Not full time trader? There's no problem,we have EA's to manage our trades and VPN's...
Hi Marco

Your chart shows again what i mention about the BB's and the BBS interaction, combine this nugget with what everyone is sharing and we get a good checklist to step through before entry. Whats nice is none of what we are all sharing changes the fundamentals of what Alien taught way back, same charts with a few personal touches but they are on the whole just like the initial templates, brilliant concept and well doen to everyone keeping this thread true,
  • #18,549
  • Oct 19, 2017 4:41pm Oct 19, 2017 4:41pm
Quoting areschris
{quote} Hello jpadvisor, I would be really interested in your explanation. Thanks in advance!
Well, "confluence" is a coming together of several things. These things are indicators, chart patterns and fundamentals. The more that line up, the higher the probability of a trade's success.
The specific tools will vary from trader to trader, but waiting for confluence is a universal tactic.
When all indicators and tools converge - all pointing in the same direction - you bet there is a high probability setup.
Some traders use a support or resistence zone plus a Fibo retracement and a cross of moving averages. Add to this what news or politics say and you have a secure edge.
Personally i prefer to start from the fundi (also studying other's charts and EWP counts) and other events (event driven trading) then going to currency strenght indices.
Every day at that point I open on MTF my desired charts looking only the trending pairs from the weekly and daily. Then scanning for setups on daily and H4. Once detected one good setup I wait for the best point to enter (a Fibo retrace is the best place) or I place a PO where I think is also a good point of support / resistance. Very often the PO are triggered and you have a nice trade in your hand. Then I decide with chart how much the setup worth (from 5 pips to 100) and last is to set the SL.
That's my daily routine. All in here.
Hope it helps. Cheers
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,550
  • Oct 19, 2017 8:00pm Oct 19, 2017 8:00pm
Quoting jpadvisor
Every day at that point I open on MTF my desired charts looking only the trending pairs from the weekly and daily.
In my opinion, this is the KEY to staying in the right direction...
Life is like a snickers, its full of nuts!
  • #18,551
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:21am Oct 20, 2017 1:21am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} See possible mistakes and better longs on EA. {image} {image}
First of all thanks for all the comments and feedback.

As to trades my few cents:
I dont use alien's hook so Im not that familiar with it, can You define rules You use to qualify as a aliens hook?
@euraud h1 chart
I dont think You can call top without hindsight.
I dont use divergencies too, but if i did it was easy to spot here.

@euraud h4 chart
Without hindsight the first 2 better entries are not clear for me, rsioma going down, there is no adx power, stochastics are pointing down.
How do You anticipate it?

@eurjpy h1 chart
this div is tiny, a second thing is that as You can see on the left there is a div too and it prevent from a massive move so im not really convinced on div's
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I will post next trades today.

Great feedback keep it coming!

I think after more trades recap I will combine some checklist for the system, maybe it will be useful for other users.
  • #18,552
  • Oct 20, 2017 4:29am Oct 20, 2017 4:29am
Quoting Songok
{quote} First of all thanks for all the comments and feedback. As to trades my few cents: I dont use alien's hook so Im not that familiar with it, can You define rules You use to qualify as a aliens hook? @euraud h1 chart I dont think You can call top without hindsight. I dont use divergencies too, but if i did it was easy to spot here. @euraud h4 chart Without hindsight the first 2 better entries are not clear for me, rsioma going down, there is no adx power, stochastics are pointing down. How do You anticipate it? @eurjpy h1 chart this div is...
Maybe but just maybe...when 21 sto crosses 100 sto and then forms divergence,beautiful things happen.
That divergence you pointed earlier did PA rest a little but higher tf (100 sto) was still dropping so it resume.
These conversations are nice to keep in the thread so others and myself can see things with other perspective.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,553
  • Edited 5:00am Oct 20, 2017 4:47am | Edited 5:00am
Quoting Songok
{quote} First of all thanks for all the comments and feedback. As to trades my few cents: I dont use alien's hook so Im not that familiar with it, can You define rules You use to qualify as a aliens hook? @euraud h1 chart I dont think You can call top without hindsight. I dont use divergencies too, but if i did it was easy to spot here. @euraud h4 chart Without hindsight the first 2 better entries are not clear for me, rsioma going down, there is no...
Here it is.


the Alien's hook is a reversal sign. This system you know is built to be a trend following system. Therefore most setup, rather than all, are thought to trade with the trend.
As master Alien said "when price is rolling over by looking at the stochastics slow rolling over and when you see that 8,3,3 hook up and back down, it's normally a great sign of the final move long and then back down".

So it's a sign of exhastion of the trend. Usually I detected it on H1 TF

To me there are two components to configure it:
1) - the slingshot of 8,3,3 does not reach the top or bottom and then it goes back down with 21;
2) - price make a last HH (or LL) but you can detect divergence.

Alien used it only to exit from a trade but I dare say it is also a reversal sign and you can use it in two ways, i.e.:
exiting from an ongoing trade at top without losing pips or entering in the direction of the reversal.
Usually it is very powerful and divergence is essential to point it.

P.S. For a nice example see my post #18529
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,554
  • Oct 20, 2017 7:50am Oct 20, 2017 7:50am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} Here it is. the Alien's hook is a reversal sign. This system you know is built to be a trend following system. Therefore most setup, rather than all, are thought to trade with the trend. As master Alien said "when price is rolling over by looking at the stochastics slow rolling over and when you see that 8,3,3 hook up and back down, it's normally a great sign of the final move long and then back down". So it's a sign of exhastion of the trend. Usually I detected it on H1 TF To me there are two components to configure it: 1) - the slingshot...
EURJPY H1 right now Alien hook?
  • #18,555
  • Oct 20, 2017 10:23am Oct 20, 2017 10:23am
Quoting dbsys
{quote} EURJPY H1 right now Alien hook?
Yes, Dbsys. Correct. This is an Alien's hook.
How far it's going I dunno, but is a clear sign to exit longs.
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,556
  • Oct 20, 2017 6:01pm Oct 20, 2017 6:01pm
Hi all - I am new here and have been ploughing through the posts.
Thanks for keeping the thread open!
Does anyone use weekly or daily pivot points as well ?
  • #18,557
  • Oct 21, 2017 5:35am Oct 21, 2017 5:35am
My next 3 trade setups to evaluate:

Gold H1 2017.06.07 slingshot
H1:
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rsioma pointing up, slingshot with 8.3.3 stoch, adx's not really expanding.

H4:
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rsioma up, adx's still strong, 8.3.3 stoch signaling a correction so it should have warned me about getting in so fast.

M30:
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first entry looks good, all stochs are going up, rsioma up, and adx start to expand

In hindsight not A-grade setup, and for sure I shouldnt have add to it because of the falling stochs, rsioma and adx's

AUDJPY 2017.06.19
h1 setup:
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8.3.3 slingshot, adx's start to rise, rsioma strong,

H4:
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8.3.3 sling shot, adx's expanding, rsioma up

M30:
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i think i entered here on premise of 8.3.3 stoch going, but rest of the indicators doesnt really support long's

I can see now that before the setup there was a adx-price divergence which was telling us that longs are not that strong so in hindsight after the run up i should have move my sl to be.

USDCAD 2017.06.29
winning setup

H1:
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Clear slingshot trade ina well defined trend, adx's going very strong, rsioma down, stochastics very low too

H4:
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perfect short, the only but is how long 8.3.3 stoch is not rebounding

M30:
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rsioma on the floor, adx's are expanding, stochs are not that great besides 8.3.3 for short.

In hindsight very good trade on h1, h4 TF but M30 is not that convincing.

Im looking forward to Your comments.
  • #18,558
  • Edited 6:27am Oct 21, 2017 6:15am | Edited 6:27am
Hi Songok, I see you familiar with divergence so one good advice when you are in a trade is to watch for divergence also on ADX tops to close your trade when divergence is on opposite. Many of your trades could have been winners.

Another tip on ADX is when ADX slopes reach top scale they need to come down before fanning again so don't enter on tops or near them.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,559
  • Oct 21, 2017 6:46am Oct 21, 2017 6:46am
Quoting Songok
My next 3 trade setups to evaluate: Gold H1 2017.06.07 slingshot H1: {image} rsioma pointing up, slingshot with 8.3.3 stoch, adx's not really expanding. H4: {image} rsioma up, adx's still strong, 8.3.3 stoch signaling a correction so it should have warned me about getting in so fast. M30: {image} first entry looks good, all stochs are going up, rsioma up, and adx start to expand In hindsight not A-grade setup, and for sure I shouldnt have add to it because of the falling stochs, rsioma and adx's AUDJPY 2017.06.19 h1 setup: {image} 8.3.3 slingshot,...
Great work, I will look deeper into this when I get on my pc.

Just a word of note, Mr alien did not consider the 30m chart as it did not easily fit into the method. Was there a reason you are using it?
Life is like a snickers, its full of nuts!
  • #18,560
  • Oct 22, 2017 1:41am Oct 22, 2017 1:41am
Quoting jpadvisor
Hi Songok, I see you familiar with divergence so one good advice when you are in a trade is to watch for divergence also on ADX tops to close your trade when divergence is on opposite. Many of your trades could have been winners. Another tip on ADX is when ADX slopes reach top scale they need to come down before fanning again so don't enter on tops or near them.
I dont use div's for now, I mention it in my analysis thanks to Your feedback, I will implement it if it is of a value. I will try to spot it in my past trade's and future one's as a training.

Quoting firewight
{quote} Great work, I will look deeper into this when I get on my pc. Just a word of note, Mr alien did not consider the 30m chart as it did not easily fit into the method. Was there a reason you are using it?
I think I didnt see that post where Mr Alien didnt consider m30 chart, I use it because Im trading h1, h4 and daily timeframe's and when i analise setup i need to go down and up one time frame so for h1 trades in m30.
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