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Alien's Extraterrestrial Visual Systems

  • #18,521
  • Oct 13, 2017 6:34am Oct 13, 2017 6:34am
Hi Aliens, to me a nice opportunity is forming on GJ long.
After the 5 waves up it seems the ABC correction is over and on H4 the down move seems over as the descending trendline has broken.
A nice compression on ADX and BBS say a large move is to come.
I wait for a retest of the channel TL to enter long. TWT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,522
  • Oct 13, 2017 10:30am Oct 13, 2017 10:30am
Quoting jpadvisor
Hi Aliens, to me a nice opportunity is forming on GJ long. After the 5 waves up it seems the ABC correction is over and on H4 the down move seems over as the descending trendline has broken. A nice compression on ADX and BBS say a large move is to come. I wait for a retest of the channel TL to enter long. TWT {image}

definitely seeing the same...by the way...how did that UJ trade go for you from earlier...were you able to get any profit out of it? was wondering about that one...looks like it did go up a bit...hope you made some green from it...
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #18,523
  • Oct 13, 2017 3:28pm Oct 13, 2017 3:28pm
Drake Delayed Stochastic:

I have a problem with the DDS: DS trades setting up in real-time are not visible when looking at the chart in hindsight (the DS loops away, and 2 hours later that loop is gone). Trades where let's say the distance between RSIOMA and DDS are a certain number do not trigger in an EA, even though the correct number is reached in real-time. Trades that happen in realtime can not be duplicated in backtesting, trades happen in backtesting that should have happened when trading live but they don't...etc.

Does anybody knows of an indicator that could duplicate the DDS functions but is more stable?

TYVM!

Vienna
  • #18,524
  • Oct 13, 2017 3:54pm Oct 13, 2017 3:54pm
Quoting jpadvisor
Hi Aliens, to me a nice opportunity is forming on GJ long. After the 5 waves up it seems the ABC correction is over and on H4 the down move seems over as the descending trendline has broken. A nice compression on ADX and BBS say a large move is to come. I wait for a retest of the channel TL to enter long. TWT {image}
I was looking at that before work. Im sure there was a wedge going on if i remember ...There wasnt much PA short even with full adx in m15.
We shall see ! :-)
  • #18,525
  • Oct 13, 2017 4:03pm Oct 13, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting viennasfc
Drake Delayed Stochastic: I have a problem with the DDS: DS trades setting up in real-time are not visible when looking at the chart in hindsight (the DS loops away, and 2 hours later that loop is gone). Trades where let's say the distance between RSIOMA and DDS are a certain number do not trigger in an EA, even though the correct number is reached in real-time. Trades that happen in realtime can not be duplicated in backtesting, trades happen in backtesting that should have happened when trading live but they don't...etc. Does anybody knows of...
Only coders can help you with that.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,526
  • Oct 13, 2017 7:41pm Oct 13, 2017 7:41pm
Quoting marcof91
{quote} Only coders can help you with that.
Yes, thank you- I know.

Anybody you recommend/ know of?
  • #18,527
  • Oct 14, 2017 12:05pm Oct 14, 2017 12:05pm
Quoting viennasfc
Drake Delayed Stochastic: I have a problem with the DDS: DS trades setting up in real-time are not visible when looking at the chart in hindsight (the DS loops away, and 2 hours later that loop is gone). Trades where let's say the distance between RSIOMA and DDS are a certain number do not trigger in an EA, even though the correct number is reached in real-time. Trades that happen in realtime can not be duplicated in backtesting, trades happen in backtesting that should have happened when trading live but they don't...etc. Does anybody knows of...
Hi

I've been quiet for a while, been recovering most of this year (stuck kidney stones, stomach op in Jan and then a major heart attack in July resulting in quad bypass - great year eh ??? LOL) which has given me lots of time to observe and study, my 2c on this

I think of trading like a sniper and sit watching for a target to appear in my scope, then at that instance i must take the shot or curse and make excuses. Aliens is a visual system which works well if your brain can assimilate all the various signals and order them across TF's to give that moment of taking the shot. When it works it is truly fabulous, zero drawdown and bags of Pips. This takes lots of screen time to get see these big return moments. There are loads of smaller moments that suffer DD, stop outs and smaller returns as the "sniper" learns the craft

NOW, turning Aliens system into an EA, a robot that only knows rules is a different game. From my work i have found that looking (as in this example) at one setup, tends to give misleading results as they look great but tend not to work well over time. If you then start to look up and down the TF's and combine the various indicators and what they signal and then combine them. It becomes a large layered Venn diagram that seems to present the combined criteria infrequently. By this i mean all waves/stochs/ADX/BB's matching and then the right context ie Risk to reward, time of day, time of week, what news is around etc.

This matching is further complicated by the way they combine, they tend to not overlap in time but are almost like status driven and you have to remember the states as they occur and if in the optimum sequence then you move along the process until you get the firing moment. This means lots of work to confirm the steps, sequence etc and then there are lots of times the sequence is not met. As non robots we have the ability to combine all the signals and then assemble the seuqnce and we gauge if it feels good enough ( Grade A..B..C...??) to pull the trigger. The robot does not have this intelligence unless it is programmed

It becomes complex to create the indie or EA to see these moments. Not saying its impossible but unless you have a larger account to load up these rare moments with a good position size within sensible risk management then the EA/Indies could be made to have good performance but the returns wouldn't be there.

Emonts and his kind solutions of various Db's for scanning is a good set to look at regarding the comments i'm offering, none of them do the total but each address different aspects of Aliens system, if your thinking of the Auto trader route and robot snipers

I think i have gone full circle, learned the visual teachings, then delved deeply into the ways to automate, get "smarter" etc and now I'm reflecting but biased towards Aliens initial teachings of visual and some notepads to wait for setups, I'm optimistic this will provide enough returns to support the life we as a family would like to enjoy

Just some thoughts
  • #18,528
  • Oct 16, 2017 5:02am Oct 16, 2017 5:02am
Hi Aliens, this is the weekly review by V. Ribakov. Cheers.
Inserted Video
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,529
  • Oct 17, 2017 4:59am Oct 17, 2017 4:59am
For those Aliens trading gold, remember in the system there is a great and lonely indicator for reversals, the "Alien's hook".
Alien said when you detect it is time to exit your trending positions.
This often happens on Gold.
See this H4 chart from yesterday to date.
Divergence at 200 SMA resistance; Alien's hook (8 and 21 Stoch. dont manage to top again and reverse creating a hook) and a big reversal.
I dont play reversals and now waiting to see where Gold consolidates.
Cheers.
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,530
  • Oct 17, 2017 5:20am Oct 17, 2017 5:20am
Fundamentals update:
"Sterling came under pressure on Monday, as Brexit concerns appear to have reached a critical juncture. Many market commentators and those close to the negotiations, are now openly quoting that the relationship between the E.U. and the leading members of the U.K., has completely broken down. Theresa May flew to meet European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker, on Monday evening for dinner, in an attempt to paper of the cracks with a hastily arranged public relations initiative. However, the clock is ticking and only the belief that the UK’s inflation is rising, as will probably be confirmed on Tuesday morning, has prevented the pound from being heavily sold off. Rising inflation will strengthen the BoE/MPC position, when they meet early December to announce their latest base rate decision for the U.K. economy, the markets are fairly unanimous that a rise of 0.25% will then be revealed. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are also of the opinion that inflation will rise significantly in the USA and E.U., therefore coordinated interest rate rises, between the BoE, ECB and Fed, might be a pattern witnessed in 2018, as the ECB begins to taper and USA Fed begins to unwind from their quantitatively eased, expanded balance sheets.
The U.S. dollar not only strengthened as a consequence of CPI inflation coming in at 2.2% YoY when the figure was published on Friday, President Trump met with John Taylor, a potential successor to Janet Yellen, who is regarded as more hawkish than Mrs. Yellen. Therefore the unwinding of the Fed’s gargantuan $4.5 trillion balance sheet, and the potential three rate rises suggested for 2018, in order to normalise rates to perhaps 3%, would be far more likely with his appointment in February 2018, the point at which Mrs. Yellen’s tenure ends. Gold rejected the critical $1300 handle, as safe haven assets were out of favour on Monday, as other commodities, in particular copper, rose sharply in value; up 3.4% to a three year high. The euro failed to make any significant gains versus its peers, a right wing politician and party winning the Austrian election, the Catalonia issues and the upcoming ECB decisions regarding tapering of the current asset purchase programme, appeared to neutralise euro investment on Monday. A potential reduction of the ECB asset/bond purchase programme, from the current €60b per month to €30b a month, may be placed on a surer footing if, as intimated by ECB president Mario Draghi, inflation picks up quickly in the single currency bloc zone."
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,531
  • Oct 17, 2017 12:01pm Oct 17, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting viennasfc
{quote} Yes, thank you- I know. Anybody you recommend/ know of?
Sorry for the late reply but it was not my fault.
Due to recent fires,the water,electricity and telecomunications has been failing around here.
Another 38 lifes has gone...
And of course the guilty is not the government.
The firemens has too little resources,are underpaid and can't command the operations because they have a superior that says what to do and not.
In the misery of others,there's always somebody profiting.
Anyway,in this thread you can ask FerruFx or Emonts.
There's also a thread where they can help you for free (if they are willing to) called: "I'll code your indicators or EAs for free of charge"
Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,532
  • Oct 17, 2017 12:29pm Oct 17, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting viennasfc
{quote} Yes, thank you- I know. Anybody you recommend/ know of?
try looking in this list
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  • #18,533
  • Oct 17, 2017 4:37pm Oct 17, 2017 4:37pm
Quoting jpadvisor
For those Aliens trading gold, remember in the system there is a great and lonely indicator for reversals, the "Alien's hook". Alien said when you detect it is time to exit your trending positions. This often happens on Gold. See this H4 chart from yesterday to date. Divergence at 200 SMA resistance; Alien's hook (8 and 21 Stoch. dont manage to top again and reverse creating a hook) and a big reversal. I dont play reversals and now waiting to see where Gold consolidates. Cheers. {image}
This was supported also by D1 TF - interesting 8 sto divergence

& by H1 TF BBS break & green sto divergence

Its clear that the more clues you can find on different TFs that say the same thing, the more likely that thing will happen.
  • #18,534
  • Oct 18, 2017 12:07pm Oct 18, 2017 12:07pm
Doubled another acc. in a little more than a month with alien sys. Took a little risk though.
Think I'll move to trade some good shares now. TWT.
Attached Image
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,535
  • Oct 18, 2017 12:35pm Oct 18, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting jpadvisor
Doubled another acc. in a little more than a month with alien sys. Took a little risk though. Think I'll move to trade some good shares now. TWT. {image}
amazing results JPA!
  • #18,536
  • Oct 19, 2017 3:50am Oct 19, 2017 3:50am
Quoting jpadvisor
Doubled another acc. in a little more than a month with alien sys. Took a little risk though. Think I'll move to trade some good shares now. TWT. {image}
~100% a month is on average 5% a day for 20 trading days.
Now do that for ONLY one year starting with 500€ and you are already millionaire (compounding daily).
Compounding monthly would take you to 118K.
Of course, 5% a day is a lot and not everyday will have a trade.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,537
  • Edited 4:47am Oct 19, 2017 4:32am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting marcof91
{quote} ~100% a month is on average 5% a day for 20 trading days. Now do that for ONLY one year starting with 500€ and you are already millionaire (compounding daily). Compounding monthly would take you to 118K. Of course, 5% a day is a lot and not everyday will have a trade.
Thanks for your advice Marko. I don't think I'm able to keep same discipline for whole year. So decided to continue trading "confluence" but less risky. Same lot size and only one trade for day. Buddies could see my TE still on profile.
For those interested in trading "confluence" (with Alien) I'll post a brief explanation.
Here are the last statistics.
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,538
  • Oct 19, 2017 5:42am Oct 19, 2017 5:42am
Hey there fellow aliens

Jpadvisor in he's post with superior results inspired me to take a look back at my own trading. JP agreed to take a closer look at my trades and I think it will be great for all the aliens here.

For starters a little background:
I trade alien system for more than a year now with various results You can see my trade explorer for more detail, although I trade on this account some other systems so its not only my performance of the alien system. As You can see since January 2017 I have got quite good results, I had about 60% win rate with 2:1 RR, in the end of April i doubled my risk (3% of account instead of 1,5% per alien transaction). Around June things started to go south quickly ;p. It was combination of both my strategies losses. Since June my hit rate is in the 20%, I thought that it might be just "vacation effect" but since september I didnt do very well either so Im staring at possibility of my edge deteorieting, by now my performance can be influenced by the string of losses too. So in next couple of days I will share some of my trades to get some feedback from JP and everyone who has better understanding of the alien system.
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My alien aproach:

I trade mostly slingshot trade's in a well defined trend. I trade h1, h4 and daily timeframes with multi-timeframe analysis.
Perfect setup for me looks something like this:
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SL: I set my stop loss above last swing high +1x ATR of the traded time frame (here h4)
I size position according to my risk profile (3% per position)
TP: 2x risk
Higher time frame 21, 42 adx have to go up (here d1_
Lower time frame must look good to the direction of the trade - a little discretionary (here h1)
and I often enter with m15 when stochs/adx's going in the direction of trade.
I add second position of the same size when there is correction and then move up.

So for starters 2 setups which started my :

EURAUD 2017.06.01
H1 setup
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You can see the 2 longs with the red lines and close position with blue crossed lines.

H4:
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You can see that trend is very strong (rsioma, expanding adx's, and stochs going up)

M30:
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I used slingshot on m30 to enter additional position.

Only thing wrong with this trade i can think of is stochastics on h1 going down a bit harder then they should and maybe h4 trend is a little bit extended but still not as much.

Second trade:
Eurjpy H1 2017.06.07

h1: (setup timeframe)
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stochastics on this one looks not very good, that could be the reason it failed, now Im trying not to play such setups

H4:
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Here You can see that trend is still strong (rsioma down in the 20 zone, adx's expanding, stochastics pointing down)

M30:
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we can see strong momentum to the downside here.

This trade for sure wasnt A-grade, thats why there wasnt additional position but still m30 and h4 pointed to the strong trend ramaining in place.

So i will add additional setups after some feedback I hope You will learn on my mistakes
  • #18,539
  • Edited 7:43am Oct 19, 2017 7:07am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting Songok
Hey there fellow aliens Jpadvisor in he's post with superior results inspired me to take a look back at my own trading. JP agreed to take a closer look at my trades and I think it will be great for all the aliens here. For starters a little background: I trade alien system for more than a year now with various results You can see my trade explorer for more detail, although I trade on this account some other systems so its not only my performance of the alien system. As You can see since January 2017 I have got quite good results, I had about 60%...
Hi Songok

Just scanning your images can i ask why you have no BB, this may help you see how much legs the trades you are taking and when to consider closing or at least moving stops. I wrote some notes previous on the characteristics of the BB and the bubble for both stops and targets in relation to pulllback entries, here's the link https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...71#post9824871

I'll look a bit more at the weekend
  • #18,540
  • Oct 19, 2017 7:47am Oct 19, 2017 7:47am
Quoting TradeFinder
{quote} Hi Songok Just scanning your images can i ask why you have no BB, this may help you see how much legs the trades you are taking and when to consider closing or at least moving stops. I wrote some notes previous on the characteristics of the BB and the bubble for both stops and targets in relation to pulllback entries, here's the link https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...71#post9824871 I'll look a bit more at the weekend
I dont really use it, i have only bb squeeze (indicator green and red dots on the rsioma window)
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