Market View; World Stock Indexes; Trading Journal

US markets traded with contained losses. The session was conditioned by the reaction to the publication of the employment report. The employment report provided an unclear description of the American labor market. In September, 33 thousand jobs were lost (the first fall in job creation since 2010), which was contrary to the estimate of an increase of 100 thousand jobs. This strong deviation was due to the passage of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey along the southern US coast. Despite this gloomy outlook, the unemployment rate declined and wages grew more than anticipated.

The oil sector closed down after news sources reported that Norway's Statoil said it found an area with more than 130 million barrels of oil in the North Sea. Favoring the German market was the publication, before the opening, of industrial production in the country for August, which increased by 2.60% from the estimated 0.90%.

Suggar seems to have found some support around the 2014 low and made a double bottom at that key level and seems to be trading within a consolidation zone that goes from 15.14 down to 13.29.

Asian markets closed with gains contained but were enough for several indexes in the region to reach the highs of this decade. In Japan, the Nikkei has reached levels not reached since 1996. In this country, it was published that industrial machinery orders rose 3.40% in August, comfortably surpassing forecasts of 1.10%.

In the pre-opening, the European indexes rehearsed without major oscillations. Today's session should be influenced essentially by external factors. The first of these factors will be the publication of the results of two of the major US banks: JP Morgan and Citigroup. Another factor conditioning the trend of the European session will be the interventions of several members of Central Banks (among them Mario Draghi) at the IMF Annual Meeting, which starts at 3:00 p.m. (GMT - 01h00).

Asian markets closed higher, with China's economic indicators offsetting Wall Street's weakness. In September, Chinese exports grew 8.10%, below the estimated 8.80%. Imports increased by 18.70% compared to forecasts of 13.50%. Although these numbers have a negative impact on GDP, they do not fail to signal the dynamism of the Chinese economy. When an economy is in the process of expanding, it is normal for its domestic consumption to be robust and that this translates into a greater demand for goods manufactured outside the country.

In his address to the IMF Annual Assembly, Mario Draghi argued that neither stocks nor bonds are in a speculative bubble. However, according to the President of the ECB, there are some signs of "exaggeration" in the real estate market of commercial spaces within the Eurozone. In fact, economic recovery, reduced interest rates, as well as the demand for assets with appealing returns have boosted the value and incomes of various trading venues in some parts of the Euro Zone. As far as financial markets are concerned, Mario Draghi's words are likely to have a greater impact on the bond market than on the stock market.

One of the best sectors in recent weeks has been the miner. Led by copper (which reached a high of the last 3 years yesterday), the price of various industrial metals has registered strong valuations. These gains are underpinned by strong demand from China, with the country's economy showing signs that will match the government's target of growing between 6.50% and 7% by 2017. Another factor for the metals rally is the weakness of the Dollar, as well as the increased exposure of hedge funds to this type of asset. Copper is the most representative metal. In addition to having multiple industrial uses and being used as collateral in lending in China, copper is nicknamed in the financial markets by Dr.Copper because its cycles anticipate the cycles of the global economy. This strong appreciation of industrial metals is also benefiting the chemical sector, since there is a very significant correlation between the two sectors under normal conditions.

Asian markets had a relatively quiet session, ending with contained variations. Today begins the main event of the week and perhaps of the year - the Chinese Communist Party Congress. This congress is held every five years and its main objectives are to elect the party hierarchies and establish the general guidelines of the country's internal and external policies. The holding of the Chinese Communist Party Congress should not have an immediate impact on the financial markets (except for some relevant surprise) but will have profound political, economic, social and military consequences not only in the region but also in the world.

European markets closed with devaluations of less than 1%, at a time when business results remain on the agenda. The technology sector was influenced by the selling pressure seen by US companies after the news about iPhones 8 orders. SAP remained broadly unchanged. The German technology company reported lower-than-expected earnings and quarterly revenues, but still improved its forecast for total revenues in 2017. Tele2 was the top-earning operator in the telecoms business, fueled by news that the operator raised its outlook for profit for the third quarter. On the other hand, Carrefour and Pernod Ricard also registered significant increases after the two companies recently presented their results. However, Unilever penalized the respective sector (household goods and personal care), after having reported a growth for the quarterly sales of 2.60% compared to the anticipated 4%. This differential was due to climatic factors such as hurricanes in the USA and the heavy rains that hit Central Europe. Nestlé lost 0.89%, despite announcing a quarterly increase of 2.60% in sales, slightly higher than the estimated 2.50%. On negative ground was also the advertising company, Publicis, in reaction to the results below expectations.

On Friday, the US market opened up, favored by the positive expectation regarding the tax reform. In fact, the Republicans were able to approve their proposal for the public deficit for fiscal year 2018. The Dow Jones has already renewed an intraday high, boosted by the positive performance of shares of Cisco Systems, American Express and JP Morgan. Shares of PayPal, a member of the S&P500 index, rose about 5 percent after the company reported quarterly results above expectations.

In the pre-opening, the European indices did not show a definite trend. In fact, in the last week most of the European indices have fluctuated over a relatively narrow range. In the preceding weeks the possibility of a short-term correction was anticipated as several technical indicators had reached extreme levels not seen for several years. This correction did not materialize and the recent consolidation of the indexes contributed to a decline in these technical indicators. These indicators remain at high but not extreme levels. Technically, the DAX is trading between 12900 and 13100. A break from the top of the range would signal, from a technical point of view, a continuation of the upward trend of the last quarter. A break in the bottom of this range would increase the probabilities of a short-term correction.

One issue that may gain greater weight in the coming sessions is the influence that the bond market may have on stock markets. Yesterday in the US, 10-year yields in the US exceeded 2.40%. Since April 10-year interest rates could not exceed 2.40%, which has served as a barrier to any rise. However, with the passage of the Senate deficit law and with the increasing likelihood that John Taylor will be named the next President of the Fed, there has been an upward pressure on yields. Most likely, it will only be after the ECB’s meeting tomorrow that it will be possible to see whether yesterday’s movement in US yields signals the beginning of a medium-term upward trend. If this happens, not only does it increase the likelihood of a generalized rise in US yields, but it may also spill European yields. Evidence of this contagion will be given when the 10-year Bunds yield exceeds 0.50%.

Asian markets closed mostly with contained gains. The only exception was the Nikkei that ended with reduced devaluations, disrupting a series of 16 consecutive positive sessions, something which never occurred before. In fact, the previous record was 14 consecutive positive sessions and had been observed in the 1960’s. A very generous fiscal policy coupled with an ultra-accommodative monetary policy has attracted several buyers to the Japanese market. At the domestic level, many private investors and pension funds have been exchanging bonds for shares, while foreign investors have once again chosen the Japanese market as their favorite in the region.

Yesterday US markets had their worst performance since early September. This nicely describes the period of weak volatility markets are experiencing: the worst S&P performance since September 5 is a mere 0.47% drop. In a first view, we may be inclined to point out the poor results reported as a cause of yesterday’s retreat. In fact, companies from different sectors such as Boeing, Chiplote Mexican Grill (restaurants) and Advanced Micro Devices (technology) announced results that did not satisfy investors, leading to a fall in their respective shares which slightly cooled optimism over the Earnings Season. However, yesterday’s decline reminds us that stock markets do not always go up: stocks move in cycles, in waves and not in a straight line, so yesterday’s move is perfectly normal in stock markets.

The ECB’s decision fell within the expectations already outlined in the preview of this event. In summary, the ECB will:
• Reduce, from January onward, the monthly purchases of 60 000 M. € to 30 000 M. €.
• The asset acquisition program will run from January 2018 through September of that year.
• The ECB will reinvest the repayment of the obligations that will mature into new debt issues, so the monthly amount of purchases should exceed 30 000 M. €.
• Interest rates will remain at current levels even after the end of this program.
In reaction to this decision, the Euro devalued itself (the message, although expected was not severe enough to inspire a new appreciation of the Euro), which favored European stocks. Another factor adversely affecting the common currency was the generalized decline in yields, especially in Southern Europe (the most favored by ECB purchases).

One factor that has supported the European stocks, especially the more cyclical ones, has been the retreat of the Euro. Technically, the main support of the European currency is located in the 1.1470 area. However, if the Euro starts trading above 1.1660, the likelihood of a short-term recovery becomes more robust.

With respect to the domestic market, the Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew 3% in the third quarter, surpassing economists’ forecasts of 2.50%. If we exclude the “inventories” effect, GDP grew by 2.30%.

The recovery of the Euro Zone economy continues to gain momentum. The Euro Zone grew 2.5% in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2016, the strongest pace since the start of 2011. This result allows the euro countries to take off from the United Kingdom, as well as from the United States.

What's the inventories effect?