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Back to the Future – My Freewheeling Journal

  • #101
  • Oct 10, 2017 8:31pm Oct 10, 2017 8:31pm
Quoting dongsky
{quote} i simply don't know the answer! guess what, i'm always wrong anyway. feel free to do and keep on doing whatever it is you think you are good at and maybe one day... just maybe, you will see yourself into a different perspective
same here :-)
we don't know anything.
it's in these discussions that we find ourselves, answer to our questions or guided to the right direction.
...
  • #102
  • Edited Oct 11, 2017 1:32am Oct 10, 2017 11:58pm | Edited Oct 11, 2017 1:32am
Quoting dongsky
{quote} This is so true... but ...
This is the game here on my pages.
I point and readers get and react!
Beautiful!

Oh yes. Absolutely. You are right.
I think (but I copied and read and wrote down those sentences hundres of time...) Wyckoff meant:
“Judge only on your chart.”
“Follow... and respect only THE PRICE:”
“No pre-judices... no judgements beforehand”

Enter, add, reduce, exit... only on "clear price level reactions" and not starting from "external events".
Only Facts (effect on price/chart) and not opinions, rumours, tips... other's people analysis.
Keep your view and mind clean, pure and reactive.
Garbage in, garbage out.
  • #103
  • Oct 11, 2017 12:09am Oct 11, 2017 12:09am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} same here :-) we don't know anything. it's in these discussions that we find ourselves, answer to our questions or guided to the right direction.

I get high (Elevate) with a little help from my friends.

Thanks to Ringo.
And thanks to Dongsky and Piquant.

I'm so happy that this is the level of discussion we could get here, together.
I'm sorry only about my elementary English that prevents me to explain myself in the depth I would like to get.

We'll try. I'll try. This post could be a great post or a disaster.
I'll try to do my best. Read between the lines of my Italian-English... LOL (I pray)

We are facing the complexity. We are facing a "multilayer" Universe.
We are searching the deep Laws that regulate the Creation! Possibly THE LAW. Not that easy... isn't it?
Neither Einstein nor Messiah, here. Unfortunately.

I'll give you a stupid, dumb answer.
I'm almost sure that we can get a “good-enough” general comprehension of the Beast we are facing.
(with thousands of hours of hard, solitary study...
not having the luck of a “Mentor” or a “Formation Course” or “Masterclass” in a Fund, Bank, Broker, Bloomberg or what else...)
But that “understanding” doesn't make a Trader out of you!!!

Look at the difference in reactions between Eddy and I. For example.
He is more Trader than me... LOL no doubts.
Ok?
So.

We have one candle (it is so trendy and fashionable this debate nowadays... as the “Market profile” charts is!)
and we don't know how many orders we have above and below its extremes.

We know that somebody else knows it!
And we know that the HFT machine and the Big Boys practically don't pay commissions/spread and that they can enter on price!
Open or close. Right on the fifth decimal.
On the contrary, we have a “Ball and Chain” of three pips/points of disadvantage... so we are potential losers just from the start.

What counts for us, at the end of the day, is... if you get my point (my shoes, my eyes, my brain...LOL)
- what to do if we are right on the direction ('cause you are smart or simply lucky)
- what to do if we are wrong on the direction (dumb, ignorant or unlucky)
- (what to do if we face an “inside development”... yes: OK? Market can go up-down-sideways...)

So: what make a trader is: “Preplanned Sequences” (If.. then..).

Then you have the “Unexpected”, the “Unpredictability”... spike, sudden move or news, fast change... crazy algo or CHF!
The Extemporaneous Response.
The enemy cavalry is attacking from the left wing... all of a sudden down from the hills.
What do you do?
How to learn what to do?

Sun Tzu divides between – General (The Analyst with his charts) and Commander (The Trader... troops, enemy and emotions)
And Sun Tzu defines the different attitudes with the different capabilities/abilities required in both.

In a Bank they have different departments with different competences/education/roles.
(By the way, did you know that Draghi's son was a Trader on Euro in a Fund?)

We retailers have the whole conflict between General and Commander in one person.
In one drunken mind.
In one bicameral brain.
We sum difficulty to difficulty.

Sun Tzu says “Make your plans and analysis IN YOUR TEMPLE... not on the battlefield!”
So Eddy is right when he says “Don't overanalyse...”
If you are under attack and you start to re-analyse... you are dead!

First step toward the success, to me, is understand this condition.
Is it easy? Simple?
NO. NOT AT ALL!
We could do it? Yes. But always partially. Always with lacks, deficiencies, scarcity.
On one side or the other.
And we must know it. It goes on the risk balance!
  • #104
  • Oct 11, 2017 12:17am Oct 11, 2017 12:17am
Yes... Ball and Chain.

Inserted Video
  • #105
  • Edited 12:44am Oct 11, 2017 12:24am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting dongsky
{quote} hey GBP is above 1.32xx now she's heading 1.34xx but again life is not that easy
In these pages I present myself and my way of thinking, in public... naked!

We can discuss together, we can make group and help each other to grow in comprehension
only if we all:

> refuse the Random Walk Theory
> believe strictly in Dow (Peaks and Troughs Dynamics)
> believe absolutely in Support and Resistance (Supply and Demand: notwithstanding the conflict Brokerage/Intermarket)

So, dear Eddy... if I say “There is a Resistance above”... I'm not saying “Sell!” LOL
I'm saying... “They could go to test the LOWs!”... trader's question (to me, my way, my style) is “What low?” “Which level?”
I'll wait on that low and I'll add... if Bullish and Bulls confirmed!
That is my way of reasoning each and every time. So don't whip me...

So, dear Piquant. Imagine... Eddy has surely his Plan (and what Plan... 200/300 pips)
He has a larger vision of S/R and dynamics than me.
Different from my “vision of time”... necessarily shorter (I trade m5 on a m1... substantially)

If we all believe on the same foundations, this could be a great journey together.
  • #106
  • Oct 11, 2017 12:33am Oct 11, 2017 12:33am
About my personal enemy: The scalper's frenzy syndrome

"I cannot emphasize this enough. The most profitable short-term trading strategy I know and use is .. ...
to enter the trade, place my protective stop, then shut my eyes, hold my breath, quit looking at the market, and wait to get out on the close. Or later!
If I am lucky enough to get a large-range day I will have captured a major move that can pay off the small-range days.
If I try to dance in and out, I will invariably not make as much money as holding to the close.
The truth is whenever I have tried fancy dancing, I have had to pay the piper a stiff fee."
"The legendary Jesse Livermore said it best, "It was never my thinking that did it for me, it was my sitting that made the big money. My sitting!"
He added, "Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon."
What I am trying to get across to you is that catching the big swing (within the time frame you are trading)
is the only way I have been able to make millions of dollars trading.
I finally figured out that I had to let my profits run to be able to pay off the losses that are as natural to this game as breathing is to life.
Losses will most absolutely come to you. That is a given..."
- Larry Williams
  • #107
  • Oct 11, 2017 12:42am Oct 11, 2017 12:42am
Couldn't find the complete quote between my papers...
but this one is complete enough.

Jesse Livermore.
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:
it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
“It is no trick at all to be right on the market,” he adds. “I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time,
and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit.
And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it.
[Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”

Those "I want to tell you this..." and the "Got that!" are unbelievable. Shivers down my spine.
  • #108
  • Oct 11, 2017 12:51am Oct 11, 2017 12:51am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} great journal btw Jupiter,.
Blushing and flushing...
Thanks. And thanks for your "like". Very appreciated.
I'm trying my best.
I suffered too much in the past.

This is simply what I see every day on the markets.
  • #109
  • Edited 1:12am Oct 11, 2017 12:59am | Edited 1:12am
GU H1
Battlefield Reconnaissence.
Tough level.
Big orders are there.

No predictions here. I just ride the bucking bronco.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #110
  • Oct 11, 2017 1:44am Oct 11, 2017 1:44am
Yesterday I called it a day 'cause I was confused by the Bears attack.
I tried to obey and follow.
But i felt something - sort of - "weird".
So I preferred to leave Mama alone.

The Bulls answer was powerful.
Dax is now searching for Supports, first.
We'll see if Bulls are still in control.

When Big Money moves into the market... it leaves signs on the chart!
Good Traders are like “Detectives of Wall Street” (that's Jesse Livermore's definition used by Gann, too)
following the Smart Money/Composite Operator's tracks and footprints... clues and evidences...
The tools are: continuous analysis, patterns' recognition, market interrogation, but above all The Probing Method: scouting.

We have to learn to trade in the direction of the Smart Money... (fleas on the elephant)
and not in the direction of the majority of the other traders...!!!!

My posts on the issue are on The Traders Academy.
  • #111
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:09am Oct 11, 2017 2:09am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Imagine... Eddy has surely his Plan (and what Plan... 200/300 pips) He has a larger vision of S/R and dynamics than me. Different from my “vision of time”... necessarily shorter (I trade m5 on a m1... substantially) If we all believe on the same foundations, this could be a great journey together.
Hello Jupiter,

For your and that of Dongsky (FTI's followers) unique and bloody earned experience sharing here, I would like to express my highest appreciation.
My guess has materialized true that you are using SL "to enter the trade, place my protective stop".

It's with a great attention that I'm dissecting each of your posts. Please keep going.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #112
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:11am Oct 11, 2017 2:11am
DAX m1 live

A picture is worth a thousand words.
Attached Image
  • #113
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:17am Oct 11, 2017 2:17am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Jupiter, For your and that of Dongsky (FTI's followers) unique and bloody earned experience sharing here, I would like to express my highest appreciation. My guess has materialized true that you are using SL "to enter the trade, place my protective stop". It's with a great attention that I'm dissecting each of your posts. Please keep going. Best regards, Exnav
As demonstrated in the above post...

"No Stop Loss Order" doesn't mean "No Stop Loss". - fti's quote.

#42554 - Also I never did say no SL on trades. I hope no one misreads or misunderstands. Only no place/use Stop Loss orders.

I told (to you all), there. And I tell you here, my home.
You are wrong.
Wrong interpretation.
  • #114
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:26am Oct 11, 2017 2:26am
Dax... I'm obeying and scaling out some.
Ready to reload.
Simple stop hunting on a consolidation?
Attack to the Double Bottom? (A double botton could well be defeated and Market Refreshed.)

Simply I don't know. And countinously adapting my positions.
  • #115
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:32am Oct 11, 2017 2:32am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} you and me both but this is typical behavior before the moves we dream about.. it will get easier soon enough... I've always struggled with staying out of a market like that and not fighting it... It's no use trading the easy stuff if you can't stay out of the untradable... But yesterday I think I finally worked out a good "circuit breaker" That is the lack of market cycle in such choppy action. Sure there are some little moves here and there that are tradable but I'd rather spend my energy in the hot pot. So knowing when to walk away and...
How much I love THIS Cindy, you cannot imagine.
The other one, less. If I may.
But THIS one in nice and gentle and clever and acute. LOL

PS. It needs a whole book to answer... but slowly, slowly I'll try.
  • #116
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:35am Oct 11, 2017 2:35am
Quoting Jupiter
Yesterday I called it a day 'cause I was confused by the Bears attack. I tried to obey and follow. But i felt something - sort of - "weird". So I preferred to leave Mama alone. The Bulls answer was powerful. Dax is now searching for Supports, first. We'll see if Bulls are still in control. When Big Money moves into the market... it leaves signs on the chart! Good Traders are like “Detectives of Wall Street” (that's Jesse Livermore's definition used by Gann, too) following the Smart Money/Composite Operator's tracks and footprints... clues and evidences......
but if you don't know how to read the signs or read between the lines you will be wiped out within seconds if not minutes.
knowing when to wait out patiently and when to walk away is one step closer to becoming a consistent trader in my opinion.

on likes, that means your posts are appreciated!
...
  • #117
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:39am Oct 11, 2017 2:39am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} you and me both but this is typical behavior before the moves we dream about.. it will get easier soon enough... I've always struggled with staying out of a market like that and not fighting it... It's no use trading the easy stuff if you can't stay out of the untradable... But yesterday I think I finally worked out a good "circuit breaker" That is the lack of market cycle in such choppy action. Sure there are some little moves here and there that are tradable but I'd rather spend my energy in the hot pot. So knowing when to walk away and...
even if someone spoon fed me, and showed exactly when to get in and when not to bother trading at all I still wouldn't be able to make good use of that information.

because the way in which we perceive and process information differs from person to person.

it's a personal journey.

we'll have to experience the pain ourselves in order to understand what works and what doesn't, whats worth waiting and what doesn't.
...
  • #118
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:41am Oct 11, 2017 2:41am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} As demonstrated in the above post... "No Stop Loss Order" doesn't mean "No Stop Loss". - fti's quote. #42554 - Also I never did say no SL on trades. I hope no one misreads or misunderstands. Only no place/use Stop Loss orders. I told (to you all), there. And I tell you here, my home. You are wrong. Wrong interpretation.
Hello Jupiter,

I'm thankful to be at your home and it's a privilege. Although, now I'm indeed misled: what am I interpreting wrong? You wrote: "to enter the trade, place my protective stop,".

In my mind a protective stop is a Stop Loss - to prevent losses.

I'm sorry if my post has bothered you. I'm not here to critisize but to learn.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #119
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:43am Oct 11, 2017 2:43am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} but if you don't know how to read the signs or read between the lines you will be wiped out within seconds if not minutes. knowing when to wait out patiently and when to walk away is one step closer to becoming a consistent trader in my opinion. on likes, that means your posts are appreciated!
I'm doing what I can.
Really trying my best.
I'll tell you clear what I think and how I see all the matter.

Hi Lo - Peaks and Troughs and Obey. No discussion.
No clinging. No attachment.
Give.
Participate to the Market.

... if (under condition that) you know how to constantly re-align to the Flow.
And now we are really close to the true secrets, Cindy my dear.
  • #120
  • Oct 11, 2017 2:49am Oct 11, 2017 2:49am
is it not that DAX is bound for correction?
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
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