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Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

  • #2,301
  • Oct 3, 2017 8:10am Oct 3, 2017 8:10am
Quoting Stubborn
{quote} pepperstone does not have mini accounts or mini lots. hence your account is standard lot where 1 full lot = 100,000 units. If your leverage is 1:500 then the margin money for 1 lot will be around $200. For 16 lots the margin required is $3200. Hope I could explain myself and clear things for you.
Thank you very much now i understand
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #2,302
  • Oct 3, 2017 8:14am Oct 3, 2017 8:14am
Quoting martinez1
{quote} Thank you very much now i understand
you are welcome martinez1.
I wish you all the best in your endeavor and hope to see you rich in the near future.
Don't ever give up and don't let anybody ever discourage you.
It is very much doable for achievers who keep trying.. it just requires experience and time.
However I suggest that you don't risk your entire capital on this. Just use a small percentage of your equity for this endeavor .
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #2,303
  • Oct 3, 2017 8:18am Oct 3, 2017 8:18am
Quoting martinez1
Please everyone this is the screen short, in my broker pperperstone, 1 = 1 dollars per pip, 2 = 2 dollars per pip, 5= 5 dollars per pip, etc but for an account of 1300 dollars i should be able to insert 16 in the space which to my understanding following the other numbers should equal 16 dollars per pip but its telling me not enough money. {image}
You're making it hard for you. Do yourself a favor, and Just use Ctrader to get the proper risks reward calculations, and you'll know how much you should put as lots and Tp and Sl and the required margin for such size of trade, and launch it on MT. Others also explained very well how to calculate all these. but ctrader will help you get it automatize.
  • #2,304
  • Oct 3, 2017 8:25am Oct 3, 2017 8:25am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} It is nice and beautiful but wrong. Say you have N net winners thus far. What is the expected number of winners at the next trade? If you win that's N+1. If you lose that's N-1. Thus if your winrate is w the expected increase of net winners is[1]: w-(1-w) = 2w-1 If your winrate is <50% you expect the number of net winners to keep decreasing forever. That's why you cannot win this game with a wr < 50%. (Of course if your WR is equal or above 50% while keeping the RR=2 you needn't this MM at all because you're already rich.) [1] Proof: The...
Your file is awesome and doesn't contradict what have been said. Will use it for my own simulations. Thanks
  • #2,305
  • Oct 3, 2017 8:29am Oct 3, 2017 8:29am
Quoting josker
{quote} You're making it hard for you. Do yourself a favor, and Just use Ctrader to get the proper risks reward calculations, and you'll know how much you should put as lots and Tp and Sl and the required margin for such size of trade, and launch it on MT. Others also explained very well how to calculate all these. but ctrader will help you get it automatize.
okay. Thank you, have been able to do it with exness
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #2,306
  • Oct 3, 2017 10:16pm Oct 3, 2017 10:16pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} It is nice and beautiful but wrong. Say you have N net winners thus far. What is the expected number of winners at the next trade? If you win that's N+1. If you lose that's N-1. Thus if your winrate is w the expected increase of net winners is[1]: w-(1-w) = 2w-1 If your winrate is <50% you expect the number of net winners to keep decreasing forever. That's why you cannot win this game with a wr < 50%. (Of course if your WR is equal or above 50% while keeping the RR=2 you needn't this MM at all because you're already rich.) [1] Proof: The...
You do not need 50%. If you are trading with 2:1, 33% keeps you at break even. So you need to maintain a 33% winning % and at SOME POINT reel off 8 more winners than losers. Never mind, I am almost 30% done, I'll just open up the trade explorer after I complete it.
  • #2,307
  • Oct 4, 2017 4:24am Oct 4, 2017 4:24am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} You do not need 50%. If you are trading with 2:1, 33% keeps you at break even
This is only true with a FIXED size. Because you're using 50% of your account in order to double it, a sequence "loss, loss, win" (in any order) multiplies your equity by 0.5x0.5x2. This is not 1. It is 0.5. You're not breakeven. Your account is halved!!!

Quoting pipmaster77
So you need to maintain a 33% winning % and at SOME POINT reel off 8 more winners than losers.
I showed that the probability of the event "at SOME POINT reel off 8 more winners than losers" is DECREASING after each trade because the expected net winners is linearly decreasing.

Quoting pipmaster77
Never mind, I am almost 30% done, I'll just open up the trade explorer after I complete it.
I'm not trying to convince you that you'll failed. I prooved why and how you're going to fail. You're free of day dreaming.

Hint: After more than 4 years and a million views, nobody has yet claimed that he succeeded. Just by random chance there should be a lucky winner if you were right.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #2,308
  • Oct 4, 2017 10:55pm Oct 4, 2017 10:55pm
Quoting Stubborn
{quote} you are welcome martinez1. I wish you all the best in your endeavor and hope to see you rich in the near future. Don't ever give up and don't let anybody ever discourage you. It is very much doable for achievers who keep trying.. it just requires experience and time. However I suggest that you don't risk your entire capital on this. Just use a small percentage of your equity for this endeavor .
Thank you very much for your encouragement. yes, i don't intend
risking my entire capital, just hope to try with below 100 dollars, then stop at every + 3 trades and start again in the week, thats my own modification
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #2,309
  • Oct 4, 2017 11:18pm Oct 4, 2017 11:18pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Who said you need to have a win rate of >50%? you? The more skilled you become the less win rate matters. Heck it is possible to be profitable with just a 3% win rate.
Neither win rate nor Risk:Reward ratio can be stated alone to determine profitability of a trader.
A trader can be profitable if win rate is 1% with Risk:Reward of 1:100 or the trader can be making losses with win rate of 99% having R:R of 100:1
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #2,310
  • Edited 11:48pm Oct 4, 2017 11:33pm | Edited 11:48pm
Quoting Stubborn
{quote} Neither win rate nor Risk:Reward ratio can be stated alone to determine profitability of a trader. A trader can be profitable if win rate is 1% with Risk:Reward of 1:100 or the trader can be making losses with win rate of 99% having R:R of 100:1
This what they don't understand and they keep on arguing enjoying it,
At least for myself i can make + 3 trades in a week and if by whatsoever i can't make that for the week i will come back next week, definitely when i make my targets of + 3 trades in the new week i will recover what ever i lost the in the previous. ( have set a particular amount to loose each week trying this, when i reach the threshold i will stop and come back the new week) My modification for Rag to Riches
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #2,311
  • Oct 4, 2017 11:45pm Oct 4, 2017 11:45pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Noobs treat trading like the casino where they think they know the probability and what the reward is. The risk and the reward of any trade in forex is really unknown. You can pretend to know by setting TP or SL but you are really at the mercy of what the markets gives you.
your making trading sound so fearing and difficult, it's not like that. nobody knows were the TP or SL is, just do your think and leave the rest, if you have been trading your strat/method for a long time and you it gives you an edge then just do your think, if it does not come through this week it will come next week. ( knowing that you will have to do your thing and leave the rest for the market eliminates a lot of negative psychology or what ever perception you might seem to have have)
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #2,312
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:59am Oct 5, 2017 12:59am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Who said you need to have a win rate of >50%? you?
I never said you need >50% win rate to be profitable. I showed that you must have >50% to use this rag to riches method.

Quoting RondaRousey
Heck it is possible to be profitable with just a 3% win rate.
In fact no. Even with a RR=35, the max size per trade would be 0.22%. A hundred trades would produce +0.6% on your account. You wouldn't find a sufficient number of trades per year just to compensate the inflation in your country. Using a ridiculous small SL to increase the RR would kill the account in trading fees.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #2,313
  • Oct 6, 2017 4:27am Oct 6, 2017 4:27am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} I am talking about RR=100. You noob. Do the maths again. Are you profitable at all? because your reply shows you have no understanding about RR
Treating PipMeUp as noob for maths ... ... You made my day !
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #2,314
  • Oct 6, 2017 6:04am Oct 6, 2017 6:04am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} I am talking about RR=100. You noob. Do the maths again. Are you profitable at all? because your reply shows you have no understanding about RR
WR=3% and RR=100 => expectancy = 2.03

To give an idea:
That's equivalent to WR=61% with R=4
That's equivalent to WR=76% with R=3
With R=2... well you would need more than 100% WR to achieve the same
That's still equivalent to 27.5% win rate with R=10

You can really to that? Please teach me. I'm a noob.

And you know what: If you traded Rag to the Riches with this HG you would bunkrupt before your 20th trade!
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #2,315
  • Oct 6, 2017 6:20am Oct 6, 2017 6:20am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} WR=3% and RR=100 => expectancy = 2.03 To give an idea: That's equivalent to WR=61% with R=4 That's equivalent to WR=76% with R=3 With R=2... well you would need more than 100% WR to achieve the same That's still equivalent to 27.5% win rate with R=10 You can really to that? Please teach me. I'm a noob. And you know what: If you traded Rag to the Riches with this HG you would bunkrupt before your 20th trade!
Award for PipMeUp for integrity class.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #2,316
  • Oct 6, 2017 6:57am Oct 6, 2017 6:57am
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  • #2,317
  • Oct 6, 2017 7:22am Oct 6, 2017 7:22am
Quoting ReverseFlash
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MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #2,319
  • Oct 6, 2017 4:11pm Oct 6, 2017 4:11pm
Quoting RondaRousey
Hidden
I'm sorry but i have to reply to this.
It seems a childish answer.
Instead of letting "the noobs" down,why don't u cheer them up and try to help them?
Don't you have a heart?
We are humans...
To be a good trader,you must be a good person.
If you respect,you will be respected.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #2,320
  • Oct 6, 2017 9:18pm Oct 6, 2017 9:18pm
Quoting RondaRousey
Hidden

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