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  • #961
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:51pm Oct 3, 2017 1:51pm
Quoting nealpek
No sarcasm, just appreciation for helping out a fellow trader!! You have a kind heart.
In that case, if you look on your screenshot. Then price is indeed mostly ranging when its not in the overbought/oversold condition.
Eventhough personaly I hate indicators due to my past negative experience with them... I have some use for them now just for the purpose of defining a periods range and comparing where the price is in relation to that range. I also have a philosophy that the most popular original indicators were a genius concept, and evolution from the static HLC. However they were taught the wrong way to everyone for a purpose.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #962
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:53pm Oct 3, 2017 1:53pm
By the way... why is nearly everyone trying to trade reversals rather than continuation ? Atleast thats how the "normal" trading education goes...
The truth is hidden from you
  • #963
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:57pm Oct 3, 2017 1:57pm
Quoting nealpek
If it helps you determine when markets are ranging, that's a cool use for it.
One of the crucialpoints riddles which got me thinking was the following:
1) Get an objective rule to define the trend. Which hemisphere are you in ? Bullish/bearish ?
2) Get an objective rule to define whether the market is trending or ranging ?

Now Im stuck at 3) How strong/weak is the market trending ?
The truth is hidden from you
  • #964
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:59pm Oct 3, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting nealpek
my last screenshot is a continuation trade!
I wasnt reffering to you but to most traders. Stochastics for example. Most people trade the exit from the overbought/oversold in to the ranging zone. Instead of doing the opposite
The truth is hidden from you
  • #965
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:02pm Oct 3, 2017 2:02pm
Actually I just took the old - Buy High/Sell Low literally.
Im buying highs, and selling lows lol
The truth is hidden from you
  • #966
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:04pm Oct 3, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
{quote} One of the crucialpoints riddles which got me thinking was the following: 1) Get an objective rule to define the trend. Which hemisphere are you in ? Bullish/bearish ? 2) Get an objective rule to define whether the market is trending or ranging ? Now Im stuck at 3) How strong/weak is the market trending ?

yep.... one thing that bothers me about the charts is they don't consider the time involved usually....

1 candle could be 20 pips and the next 20 pips could take 5 days..... or 1 candle could be 20 pips and the retrace could last 20 days and not even go 20 pips..... (theoretically)

was wondering today about something along the lines of roc of the up move compared to roc of the down move as an indicator

OR

have always been a fan of trying to square(normalize) price with time for a more mature view of the state of affairs on the chart

https://backtothefuturetrading.com/f...-hybrid-renko/ <<< that but with range bars instead of price bars...would be a very nice indicator IMO

moving average based indicators, applied to a somewhat normalized chart of price & time, would be WAY more indicative of actual trend if time and price were even somewhat normalized.... at least visually....

just an idea... am not a programmer so....
  • #967
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:04pm Oct 3, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} This thread will eventually end :-)
Hey mate, your prediction has been so right.....you have a great skill!!!

ROFL!!!!
  • #968
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:05pm Oct 3, 2017 2:05pm
If it works for you Max, I'm happy for you!!!!
  • #969
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:11pm Oct 3, 2017 2:11pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} yep.... one thing that bothers me about the charts is they don't consider the time involved usually.... 1 candle could be 20 pips and the next 20 pips could take 5 days..... or 1 candle could be 20 pips and the retrace could last 20 days and not even go 20 pips..... (theoretically) was wondering today about something along the lines of roc of the up move compared to roc of the down move have always been a fan of trying to square(normalize) price with time for a more mature view of the state of affairs on the chart https://backtothefuturetrading.com/f...-hybrid-renko/...
Furthermore 50 pips could be an entire trend on one pair. But just a minor correction on the other... I guess its possible to somehow normalize that with atr. But the average of anything is way to biased plus there are deviations/fat tails. For example the average candle is 20 pips. But then you get a candle of 120 pips. The whole calculation is screwed. As for squaring the price/time...once again taken literally I found p&f to be the best at that. I still use time for simple human refference. But not for frading. However if the price doesn't move in half an hour after London open, I know that something is wrong
The truth is hidden from you
  • #970
  • Edited 2:31pm Oct 3, 2017 2:20pm | Edited 2:31pm
This is why I loathe these boards. Same thing happens each time. That's why I contribute a little then stay away for a while. Just trying to help folks. Time for a hiatus.
I'll post the results of my trade after it develops or it flops, whichever the case may be. Happy trading everyone!!
  • #971
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:57pm Oct 3, 2017 2:57pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
{quote} My strategy is go FUBAR which translates to - Fokd Up Beyond All Reasoning. I even manage to transfer money between my demo and my live. Go long on demo 0.01 lots, go short on live 0.01 lots. Same pair
And you are saying, not trying be smart ass?
  • #972
  • Oct 3, 2017 3:03pm Oct 3, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} And you are saying, not trying be smart ass?
Trying. Humour is a weapon against nihilism
The truth is hidden from you
  • #973
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:10pm Oct 3, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting hanover
This tells me that it's not absolutely necessary to decipher CrucialPoint's brain teasers, or have Einsteinian insight into quantum mechanics, in order to become highly successful at this game. As Jack Schwager states in his preface to New Market Wizards, there are a million ways to make money in the markets, but the irony is that they are all very difficult to find.
There are many ways to skin a cat, but first you need to catch the cat.
  • #974
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:59pm Oct 3, 2017 4:59pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} ... I believe that there are many possible approaches toward becoming a successful trader.... it's not absolutely necessary to decipher CrucialPoint's brain teasers, or have Einsteinian insight into quantum mechanics, in order to become highly successful at this game. As Jack Schwager states in his preface to New Market Wizards, there are a million ways to make money in the markets, but the irony is that they are all very difficult to find.
I think this is a great post and something I also believe. Positive EV. Let me first qualify that I am not gifted with exceptional talent in mathematics, nor would I be able to keep pace with Copernicus in discussions about the illusions of time, try as I might to follow. And I certainly don't have the ability to trade without it as a variable as some traders appear to be able to do. Which is very impressive and I am curious to it. "I only know what I know but I know what I know, and I know what I don't know." - something my favorite teacher once said to me. What I know, through professional application, is poker. A set of skills that I use to relate to trading.

Time

Again, I can't comment as to whether or not it's a necessary variable in trading or even if it exists but I do find it useful. Time can be be viewed as an indicator much like any other. First, I use it as a filter. Through basic statistics it's easy to see when the game is likely to have the most action and therefore, the most opportunity to play bigger hands and generate greater potential profit. This obviously applies more to shorter-term trading as using higher time-frame analysis doesn't suffer as much need for immediate action. Secondly, I use it to book-keep my playing session. We'll use hourly since it appears to be a popular reference. This single hourly candle will represent the table we are currently playing at. You could look at this single candle as an 'event space' where all 'event points' happen. I am defining an 'event point' as a now moment where a decision is made whether or not to enter a trade. From there, you can decide how many event points or hands you wish to play. Havo mentioned 15-minute charts giving you 4 hands to play.
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Reference Point

It's been mentioned several times now, including the use of the "95%" quote, that the opening price appears to be the most popular point. But there are others. CP once wrote a post entitled "Inside the Pot". MORE POKER REFERENCE. It's a great post and it's something that can give you a more dynamic point of reference and allow you to see how the table is playing.
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Something extra. When CP posts a few of his 1-minute charts, he consistently uses a particular indicator. It's a simple market session indy, but it has some cool features. One such being that it draws the mid-point between the high and low of a given session.
Attached Image

I DO NOT speak for CP, I have no idea how he trades, and I have no idea if he would bother himself with using it. Just an observation. I used it myself before FXCM was expelled from the US.

Lastly, I agree with Strongtrader on the point of needing to have the right mindset and understand that once you put your chips in the middle, they are no longer your chips. You are entering into uncertainty and it must be handled appropriately through your preferred method of risk assessment and management. It doesn't matter how great your setup is, pocket rockets get cracked all the time. Hope I didn't bore you guys. Posting helps with my social anxiety sometimes.

Edit: Please note. These ideas are not my original ideas and the associated images I borrowed and modified from CP.

Cheers
BTS
  • #975
  • Edited 5:50pm Oct 3, 2017 5:20pm | Edited 5:50pm
Quoting BadTunaSalad
{quote} Lastly, I agree with Strongtrader on the point of needing to have the right mindset and understand that once you put your chips in the middle, they are no longer your chips.
in poker this statement is correct. in trading you have other rules. always the equity value (closing price value) of your chips on table (or in the middele) are still yours, because you can all the time close the trades and get chips for the value. so this chips are always my chips, as long as i have the possibility to close the trade.

many see trades to fix. if i open a buy trade and in for example 1 hour (and any other second after trade open until closing) this trade is still running then in 1 hour i still decide a buytrade is good to have now, or i would close it (so if i would not have a buytrade i would buy one,calculated without spreadcost and commission ofcourse , because trade is already in). from each point of your trade you have already changed equity and it is like you just opened the trade new (calculation needs to be without costs for correct value)) when you not closed it. and this happens in each second after you open the trade until you close it. but this is basic stuff of trading ofcourse.
  • #976
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:13pm Oct 3, 2017 7:13pm
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} in poker this statement is correct. in trading you have other rules. always the equity value (closing price value) of your chips on table (or in the middele) are still yours, because you can all the time close the trades and get chips for the value. so this chips are always my chips, as long as i have the possibility to close the trade. many see trades to fix. if i open a buy trade and in for example 1 hour (and any other second after trade open until closing) this trade is still running then in 1 hour i still decide a buytrade is good to...
Yes. You are correct. I wasn't clear with my words. I was using that nomenclature in more a reference to a mental exercise to disassociate oneself with the outcome of any one particular trade and embracing uncertainty. I apologize if I was misleading with my wording and use of relating the poker world to the trading world. Good catch on your part.
  • #977
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:20pm Oct 3, 2017 7:20pm
Quoting BadTunaSalad
{quote} Yes. You are correct. I wasn't clear with my words. I was using that nomenclature in more a reference to a mental exercise to disassociate oneself with the outcome of any one particular trade and embracing uncertainty. I apologize if I was misleading with my wording and use of relating the poker world to the trading world. Good catch on your part.
was not misleading, because chips was only some reference points. poker is often a good example for trading , many parts are same like in trading, some are different.

yes its good method for some , when you put in the whole trade as loss from starting to have no negative feeling when the loss will really come. then you need to have in mental the complete trade until SL as loss. many cant do this hard enough mental, and then when loss is coming they are double time angry often. its good way, but not so easy because brain is knowing its no real loss from beginning, needs hard work to train the brain for accepting this.
  • #978
  • Oct 4, 2017 1:29am Oct 4, 2017 1:29am
Quoting BadTunaSalad
CP once wrote a post entitled "Inside the Pot". MORE POKER REFERENCE. It's a great post and it's something that can give you a more dynamic point of reference and allow you to see how the table is playing. {image}
Yes, it may be a good reference point, too. However, his conclusions (if prize is above the midline then there were more sellers) are not neccessarily correct. If you calculate the average for each tick within a higher TF bar, you will get the true "midpoint" of that candle. Most of the time this point is close to the midpoint. Thus, I see CP's statement like a metaphor. But he also posted that even knowing what's inside the pot doesn't help ... But yes, I think he use it to generate his buy/sell hemispheres.
  • #979
  • Oct 4, 2017 2:19am Oct 4, 2017 2:19am
NERDS RULE THE WORLD
Quoting MaxenshteinD
As for bollinger... I dont understand the logic behind its standard deviation calculations...so I dont use it.
Bollinger, Stochastic, MACD, CCI, Donchian Channels, Parabolic Sar, CCI, Gann's Time/Price, MA etc...
These were created back in the days... to trade STOCKS.

MA 200 was derived from 200 trading days in a year for a stock (minus the no trading public holidays and weekends).

Gann used TIME and ASTRONOMY because stocks have seasonal patterns. Seasonal Harvest and Seasonal Consumption affected stock prices. You can't harvest apples in winter and you don't heat your house in summer. TIME/season affected the Supply and Demand of stock prices. Hence, Gann used TIME in his equations. Gann didn't predict the future. He took advantage of TIMING the Seasonal changes supply and demand and took into account the limited number of players/traders. After several years and more players and company variables came into the game, the equation didn't work as it use to. It's nothing magical and mystical.

Numbers 1 to 10 were used to exploit stock news releases and sudden changes/liquidation/merges/PR etc...
Numbers 10-20 affected price due to paying dividends/taxes and income.
Numbers 20-30 affected stock prices due to expiring/acquiring Stock OPTIONS.

STOCKS are different to FOREX. Seems very mundane and very obvious, but it makes a very big difference if you understood the difference or not.
The standard settings of these indicators had a purpose.
I guess only nerds would know such boring information.
NERDS RULE THE WORLD!!!

Inserted Video
  • #980
  • Oct 4, 2017 2:21am Oct 4, 2017 2:21am
Quoting Anusragger
On average the distribution of wick size is body 50% and each wick 25%. There lies your edge. But be cautious, the average human has 1 boob and 1 testicle.
Based on this distribution I came up with a simple expirement to prove markets are NOT (completely) RANDOM.
Probably this experiment has been done before, but never the less here it is.

I thought to double check this statement based on GPBJPY over the past 2 years of daily candles. I came to the following distribution:
upper wick: 26%
body: 45%
lower wick: 29%

I guess one could state this is indeed pretty close to the 25%-50%-25% distribution.

the Premise:
So I thought, IF markets are random, THEN the distribution of random candles should also produce a 25%-50%-25% distribution, correct?


So I setup a small experiment and can be easily checked (e.g. in excel):

The experiment:
1. Generate a random High and Random Low
2. Generate a random Open en random Close that lie between the High and the Low
3. Calculate the range and then calculate the percentages of the wicks and body.
4. Repeat this experiment 1000x to find the average distribution.

The conclusion:
so what do you think the outcome is of this experiment? What do you think is the random disribution of wicks and body?
is it 25%-50%-25??

If not, take a guess?
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