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  • #1,421
  • Edited 11:27pm Sep 24, 2017 11:15pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting 4for4
The chart is there for everybody to see ...
Yes. Absolutely. Perfect...
All the traders watch the same movie. (Linda Raschke)
But some knows and sees (and, why not?, feels) something more than the others.
Why? How is that?
Only a 5%?
Why this percentage is so dramatic?

This is Friday's DAX m1.
That is not Gann's Angle.
They are “normal” Trend Lines.
I don't use “Diagonal TL” very often during my trading.
Sometimes Dynamic S/R are too “subjective” for my taste.
But when I do my analysis on charts, they can easily explain and justify some phenomena.

Everything we need to be successful are on charts... Price is the King.
Only that we don't know how to see it.
Steve Nison talks of our mind as “The Drunken Monkey jumping from branch to branch”.
Bill Williams (I'm not sponsoring the man, but his work is great and correct with clear "roots" in the past!) says:

- Our basic assumption is that...
no one (not the amateur, professional, institutional, computer jocks, the technoids, you, or I) trade the market!
We all trade our personal belief systems.

- ...we can align our personal underlying structure with the underlying structure of the market
and winning become effortless as we follow both... our own and market's path of least resistance.

My point? What I want to communicate?
The good, old recipe: Defeat Ego! Put Your Ego Aside... Study, study, and study again! Rules, discipline, patience!
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  • #1,422
  • Edited 7:02pm Sep 25, 2017 1:58am | Edited 7:02pm
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} ... What I want to communicate? The good, old recipe: Defeat Ego! Put Your Ego Aside... Study, study, and study again! Rules, discipline, patience! {image}
Yes, in almost all competitions (especially sport), psychological/mental skills will eventually take over the technical skills at its highest level ...
What I was trying to say is that this game of forex trading is actually a game of psychology ...
The sad thing is that once we trade a live account, we should have already been playing a game of psychology ... that's why most newbies will fail because their mindsets are still at the technical level ...
The good news is, everybody can practice "honing" their psychological skills, using whichever technical tools they prefer, almost free of charge on the demo account before entering the actual competition ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,423
  • Sep 27, 2017 8:43am Sep 27, 2017 8:43am
Trading, or learning how to trade, will expose the person you really are, probably to a far greater extent than anything you have ever subjected yourself to in your entire life. With life in general, there are many hiding places. In trading, there are none. If the person we see in the mirror is in any way inimical to that which is required to succeed in this business, we have to change. How we change is a different discussion, but above all else, we need to become the kind of person who can consistently take money out of the markets, and this will be an all together different animal to the one who first looked at a financial chart. As many of us will know, this is far from being an easy task.
  • #1,424
  • Sep 27, 2017 9:45am Sep 27, 2017 9:45am
Quoting cat
Trading, or learning how to trade, will expose the person you really are, probably to a far greater extent than anything you have ever subjected yourself to in your entire life. With life in general, there are many hiding places. In trading, there are none. If the person we see in the mirror is in any way inimical to that which is required to succeed in this business, we have to change. How we change is a different discussion, but above all else, we need to become the kind of person who can consistently take money out of the markets, and this will...
Yes, not an easy task ... learning how to trade is as much as learning how to transform ourselves ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,425
  • Sep 27, 2017 9:46am Sep 27, 2017 9:46am
“We have met the enemy and he is us.”
Nothing is more remembered than Pogo the ‘possum’s quote in the poster Walt Kelly designed to help promote environmental awareness...
but that is perfect for us traders, as well! Isn't it?
Attached Image
  • #1,426
  • Sep 27, 2017 9:52am Sep 27, 2017 9:52am
Quoting Jupiter
“We have met the enemy and he is us.” Nothing is more remembered than Pogo the ‘possum’s quote in the poster Walt Kelly designed to help promote environmental awareness... but that is perfect for us traders, as well! Isn't it? {image}
Perfection is achieved not when there's nothing else to add, but when there's nothing else to take away ...
Yet, perfection itself is unattainable, but wholeness is ...
Attached Image
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,427
  • Sep 27, 2017 9:53am Sep 27, 2017 9:53am
OK! Who is the enemy?

The "indicator" shown in this chart is the FXCM/IG SSI... the so called "Speculative Sentiment Index".
This is what really happens in the markets every day.

Essentially SSI is a ratio that gives us a picture of trader positioning.
SSI reveals trader positioning by determining if they are net long or short, and if so by how much.
SSI is a strong trading tool due to the nature of most traders.
Traditionally most Forex traders look to pinpoint a market top or bottom while fading market trends.
That means that more often than not, we see most traders place sell orders into extended rallies, and buy into market declines.
(So and naturally... they are right only at the absolute extremes... and 50% when market ranges.)

Was that clear enough? In my poor English, it's a challenge for me. LOL

I'm talking of real positions open in each moment.
This is not volume, volume tick or some other stuff,
SSI represents exactly how many FXCM and/or IG clients are short or long in each moment of that action.
(I think Oanda publishes something similar, too...)

Red for net short (majority in %)
Green for long (majority in %)

Made your comments and reflections.
I called that, in another thread, the permanent “Apocalypse Now”.
When I saw it for the first time I was shocked. Yes we already know this thing... but look!
Even today... I can't believe it.
Do you still believe is your broker that hunts your stop?
This is the 90% of us traders... we, the bunch of losers... the liquidity providers.
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  • #1,428
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:14am Sep 27, 2017 10:14am
Was I clear enough?
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  • #1,429
  • Edited 7:53pm Sep 27, 2017 7:02pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting Jupiter
Was I clear enough? {image}
Thanks for your PM, but I prefer an open discussion better ...
There's a saying that says "garbage in, garbage out" ... so we have to be careful in selecting which ones to use and which ones to ignore ...
Good luck to all of us here at the Academy ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,430
  • Edited Sep 28, 2017 1:53am Sep 27, 2017 11:19pm | Edited Sep 28, 2017 1:53am
It is always like that in this forum.
Everybody is so sensitive (including myself... of course)

Dear readers,
nothing mysterious.
I'm not selling anything. I'm not fishing for something, I'm not opening a blog...
This is the PM.
And it is my PM to all the readers of this splendid thread.
(I have finished my reasonings here... don't be worried)

Hi
I hope you don't mind if I send you a message.
I liked so very much your reference to the "Non attachment!"
After 6 years in the market... here is where I am, with all my conviction:
yield, don't fight, surrender to the flow without asking, no clinging.
Be water in the water,... it is not easy.
It requires control and technique.
Study with passion... and good fortune. Don't waste your time on garbage!
Bye
  • #1,431
  • Sep 29, 2017 7:12am Sep 29, 2017 7:12am
A word about computers I thought I'd share.

I never buy new, only refurbished. The best place I've found is Bargain hardware. I only use desktops, so can't comment on laptops which I'd never trade off anyway. For price and reliability, this company can't be beaten. I recently bought another Dell with a quad graphics card which will support up to 4 monitors, for £180. The previous one I've had for three years and is still going strong, and the one I'm replacing overheated in the summer which was my fault.

If you're in the UK and you're looking for a new desktop, then I highly recommend these people - http://www.bargainhardware.co.uk/
  • #1,432
  • Sep 29, 2017 7:57am Sep 29, 2017 7:57am
Quoting cat
A word about computers I thought I'd share. I never buy new, only refurbished. The best place I've found is Bargain hardware. I only use desktops, so can't comment on laptops which I'd never trade off anyway. For price and reliability, this company can't be beaten. I recently bought another Dell with a quad graphics card which will support up to 4 monitors, for £180. The previous one I've had for three years and is still going strong, and the one I'm replacing overheated in the summer which was my fault. If you're in the UK and you're looking for...
I prefer laptops and I too never buy new, only refurbished! Bought a 15" Lenovo T520 with Intel Core i7 and 8 GB RAM last month for ~400 Euro. The battery is a bit weak but thats it on the negative site.
  • #1,433
  • Sep 29, 2017 8:35am Sep 29, 2017 8:35am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} I prefer laptops and I too never buy new, only refurbished! Bought a 15" Lenovo T520 with Intel Core i7 and 8 GB RAM last month for ~400 Euro. The battery is a bit weak but thats it on the negative site.
Whatever does the job
  • #1,434
  • Sep 30, 2017 10:19am Sep 30, 2017 10:19am
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  • #1,435
  • Oct 3, 2017 1:55am Oct 3, 2017 1:55am
Quoting Jupiter
The "indicator" shown in this chart is the FXCM/IG SSI... the so called "Speculative Sentiment Index"
Hello Jupiter,

Glad to see you are using our SSI indicator for your analysis however, you should note that our SSI data is only for FXCM retail clients and is in no way related to IG.

Jason
  • #1,436
  • Oct 3, 2017 2:43am Oct 3, 2017 2:43am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hello Jupiter, ... Jason
Sorry Sir.
Perfect, of course.
I trade on FXCM platform and presented FXCM charts and Indicator.
Naturally FXCM and IG are two different brokers.

I only meant (with my poor English) that IG does something similar as Oanda does...
I thought the data presented on DailyFX were IG data.
I probably made some confusion.

However and anyway... nothing is wrong in my reasonament and use of your indicator.
Thanks for your observation and clarification.
  • #1,437
  • Edited 7:45am Oct 3, 2017 4:41am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hello Jupiter... Jason
OK verified and understood, Sir. Thank you.
My interpretation:
- SSI is the exclusive name of the FXCM's indicator.
- IG is publishing something similar ever since they bought Dailyfx from FXCM
(...but I don't know if they too offer a specific "ad hoc" indicator)
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  • #1,438
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:14pm Oct 3, 2017 4:14pm
I doubt there is anyone reading this who does not know this, but just a reminder that the price very often goes up just before it sells down hard, and vice versa. This adverse movement, commonly known as a fake, gets unsuspecting traders looking the wrong way, causing them to miss out on a great trade, or worse, trade it the wrong way just before it turns.

The best way to out think these adverse movements is to be as sure as sure can be about the most likely market direction for the day, so if the price suddenly jumps or dips the wrong way before stopping and turning again, we are ready for it.
  • #1,439
  • Oct 3, 2017 10:06pm Oct 3, 2017 10:06pm
Quoting cat
I doubt there is anyone reading this who does not know this, but just a reminder that the price very often goes up just before it sells down hard, and vice versa. This adverse movement, commonly known as a fake, gets unsuspecting traders looking the wrong way, causing them to miss out on a great trade, or worse, trade it the wrong way just before it turns. The best way to out think these adverse movements is to be as sure as sure can be about the most likely market direction for the day, so if the price suddenly jumps or dips the wrong way before...
If there's a holy grail. This is it. But who knew trading the trend after a pullback would be harder than picking tops and bottoms. No wonder so many rather pick reverse moves. Defining the direction can be tricky, timing your entry after a retracement can be just as tricky. But in trading there's no magic combination of indicators that will make you a consistent trader than this piece of advice, if you can master this, you're all set.

thanks again Cat for dropping hints here and there throughout this forum.
...
  • #1,440
  • Edited 11:52pm Oct 3, 2017 11:31pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting Piquant
{quote} If there's a holy grail. This is it.
Good point again, cat and Piquant.
You can make a living by recognising and trading only this pattern (in all its variations...).

Wyckoff studied the phenomenon...
Darvas exploited it...
Some “Wyckoffian” authors/traders went in deep analysis of that dynamic.
Linda Raschke worked on this, as well..

Nothing is random in the Market. Each and every effect has its own cause.
This is the real “Stop Hunting!”
This produces whole masses of “Trapped Traders”.

Again, I tried to discuss the pattern in another thread with “zero success”.
Again, absolutely no reactions.
People want just to listen that “Price is unpredictable!”

Train and exercise your eyes on this one. Market will pay back for sure.

Edit: If you like, start from the USDJPY chart just above. Do you see the Manouvre at the bottom?
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