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Simple Low Risk Price Action Trading w/ TE Results

  • #141
  • Sep 26, 2017 7:04am Sep 26, 2017 7:04am
Quoting Sehanw
I took this awesome USDCAD trade few hours ago {image}
Good job you've been doing quite well with this it looks like. There were some great opportunities during the tokyo session on the 1 hour time frame for some big moves.
  • #142
  • Sep 26, 2017 7:25am Sep 26, 2017 7:25am
Here are some opportunities from the Tokyo session and London. Some of these are 3/4 signals but you'll see topping tail candles that indicate a downward move. In this case I like to wait for the candle to break the previous candle, then place your stop just above the topping tail. This is shown by the red arrow on the AUDUSD chart but can also be seen on the USDJPY chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 AUDUSD 1.JPG Size: 330 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 EURGBP 1.JPG Size: 307 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 EURJPY 1.JPG Size: 263 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 EURUSD 1.JPG Size: 316 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 USDJPY 1.JPG Size: 279 KB
  • #143
  • Sep 26, 2017 7:28am Sep 26, 2017 7:28am
great trade Sehanw - I passed on that pair thinking the H1 didn't look promising, shows what I know:-)
  • #144
  • Sep 26, 2017 7:40am Sep 26, 2017 7:40am
Quoting vikvikram
great trade Sehanw - I passed on that pair thinking the H1 didn't look promising, shows what I know:-)
He actually nailed it as my previous post mentions those topping and bottoming tails. Even though that trade took out the PSAR, it quickly rejected back to the middle bollinger band. So once that candle closed as a bottoming tail with 3/4 signals and bullish divergence, you can place your stop loss just below the bottoming tail instead of the bottom bollinger band. The red arrow indicates where the bottoming tail is.
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  • #145
  • Sep 26, 2017 7:54am Sep 26, 2017 7:54am
Here is the best example I could find for cross checking pairs and why you can find good setups even when it may not look perfect on the 1 Hour or 15 minute chart alone. This is the NZDUSD pair and there were 3 total opportunities in this chart. The first one is a super easy by the book 4/4 signal with bearish divergence, and on the 15 minute chart you can see it's just at the top bolinger band and 100 EMA with stoch over 70 as well. You also have an easy profit target at the previous low. The second trade was not perfect, it was technically a 2/4 signal with slight divergence but when you cross check the 15 minute chart again you can see that it's completely overbought on the stoch and again at the top bollinger band and 100 EMA. The beauty of this one is that you can set your TP based on the 1 hour chart but the SL based on the 15 minute chart which would be just above the 100 EMA and top bollinger band. Third trade is a good setup on the 15 minute chart with a 4/4 signal and divergence. It is oversold on the 1 hour chart but you can see that trade ended up being a topping tail which again signifies a possible bear move after it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 NZDUSD 1 Hour.JPG Size: 301 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 NZDUSD 15 Min.JPG Size: 372 KB
  • #146
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:59am Sep 26, 2017 9:59am
another one.
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  • #147
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:14am Sep 26, 2017 10:14am
Quoting Sehanw
another one. {image}
Glad to see you're getting the hang of this and making some good pips. I saw a few of those setups on the /USD pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD. The best setup was on NZD/USD but I didn't take either of them because they were overextended on the 1 Hour chart. However, looking at it now, the NZD/USD setup had such a small risk that it was probably worth taking on such a good setup. I make mistakes too. I did take this trade however and I left an easter egg in the post from earlier on the EUR/GBP 1 hour chart. There was a setup forming and I took it on my new demo for 1 Hour setups only. I got out once the price hit the lower bollinger band and stoch was under 30 with bullish divergence for about 20 pips. It looks like it's still going however so hopefully someone else took this trade all the way.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 EURGBP 2.JPG Size: 232 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092617 EURGBP 3.JPG Size: 134 KB
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  • #148
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:27pm Sep 26, 2017 9:27pm
NZDCHF , hit tp just before trend was about to reverse, a bit risky
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Click to Enlarge Name: Snap1.png Size: 35 KB
  • #149
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:52pm Sep 26, 2017 9:52pm
Embry1,

Would you say this is a trade that follows your trading approach? If I understand correctly this would be 3/4 but it was close to the upper bollinger band, using it as resistence. Trade was taken at green arrow with the stop at the bright red line and profit target at the dark green line. 1:3 ratio. Any feed back would be great. Your strategy works really well with mine. Thanks for sharing it.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 307 KB
  • #150
  • Sep 27, 2017 6:11am Sep 27, 2017 6:11am
nice set up on EURUSD that has played out positively
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 38 KB
  • #151
  • Sep 27, 2017 7:19am Sep 27, 2017 7:19am
Quoting OCrhino
Embry1, Would you say this is a trade that follows your trading approach? If I understand correctly this would be 3/4 but it was close to the upper bollinger band, using it as resistence. Trade was taken at green arrow with the stop at the bright red line and profit target at the dark green line. 1:3 ratio. Any feed back would be great. Your strategy works really well with mine. Thanks for sharing it. {image}
Yes you can certainly use the top bollinger band when the EMA 100 and PSAR are above the price, you just see that less often. You had a good risk reward there becaue the PSAR and top bollinger band were very close to the price so a good 3/4 signal. However I don't see any divergence but at least you didn't have bullish divergence.
  • #152
  • Sep 27, 2017 7:39am Sep 27, 2017 7:39am
Small winner here, didn't have much room to work with on the 1 hour chart but had a really great setup. This is an example of price breaking through resistance then it coming back as support with stoch < 30. So we had 4/4 signals with divergence as it came back onto the old resistance which should act as support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092717 EURJPY 1.JPG Size: 148 KB
  • #153
  • Edited 8:37am Sep 27, 2017 8:20am | Edited 8:37am
Here are a few examples of using support and resistance along with these signals and divergence. Unfortunately the only trade I took was the EUR/GBP on my live account, made a few pips but there were obviously better opportunities. That trade really only had 3/4 signals with divergence but it completely rejected the resistance and I got a great entry. Using every tool you have available will help in ranging markets as well as trending so you can feel confident with any opportunity you see.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092717 AUDJPY 1.JPG Size: 152 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092717 EURGBP 1.JPG Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092717 USDJPY 1.JPG Size: 142 KB
  • #154
  • Sep 27, 2017 9:43am Sep 27, 2017 9:43am
Quoting Embry1
{quote} Yes you can certainly use the top bollinger band when the EMA 100 and PSAR are above the price, you just see that less often. You had a good risk reward there becaue the PSAR and top bollinger band were very close to the price so a good 3/4 signal. However I don't see any divergence but at least you didn't have bullish divergence.
Can you clarifying Divergence as it relates to your way of trading? I know this might seem like a basic question, but I have noticed over my years of trading sometimes people have definitions of trading terms. I have seen traders talk about divergence but it had different meanings to each trader.

Thanks for the clarification.
  • #155
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:49am Sep 27, 2017 10:49am
Quoting OCrhino
{quote} Can you clarifying Divergence as it relates to your way of trading? I know this might seem like a basic question, but I have noticed over my years of trading sometimes people have definitions of trading terms. I have seen traders talk about divergence but it had different meanings to each trader. Thanks for the clarification.
I'm referring to the divergence in the stochastic indicator and the actual price of the pair. In this picture the red arrows indicate the difference in trend on the stochastic indicator and the price. In this case it's bullish divergence because the previous low point on the stochastic is higher than the current low point, and the low point on the price is lower than the current low point. This indicates a strong bullish move. In this particular case the divergence occurred with 3/4 signals and previous resistance that now acts as support so even more reasons to take the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092717 USDJPY 1.JPG Size: 142 KB
  • #156
  • Sep 27, 2017 11:02am Sep 27, 2017 11:02am
Embry1 is correct. That is bullish divergence. However, it is technically called Hidden Bullish Divergence as it is not traditional Bullish Divergence. See BabyPips.com, school to see examples of traditional bullish and bearish divergence and hidden bullish and bearish divergence.

By the way Embry1. OUTSTANDING thread.

B.
  • #157
  • Sep 27, 2017 12:40pm Sep 27, 2017 12:40pm
Quoting Embry1
{quote} I'm referring to the divergence in the stochastic indicator and the actual price of the pair. In this picture the red arrows indicate the difference in trend on the stochastic indicator and the price. In this case it's bullish divergence because the previous low point on the stochastic is higher than the current low point, and the low point on the price is lower than the current low point. This indicates a strong bullish move. In this particular case the divergence occurred with 3/4 signals and previous resistance that now acts as support...

Thank you for the in depth clarification. I have learned not to assume I know what a trader is talking about. Again, I've seen traders use terms like divergence or confluence and i think i know what they are talking about, only to find out they have a different variation of it.

Thanks
  • #158
  • Sep 27, 2017 7:43pm Sep 27, 2017 7:43pm
Been getting stopped out on these tail candles which is highly unfortunate but part of trading on 15 minute charts. Any time you trade shorter time frames you open yourself up to getting stopped on a short spike and then see the trade perform as you expected. Not having that issue trading the 1 hour chart which is nice but much fewer opportunities. Widening the stops is always an option but it's all about managing the risk/rewards. That's why I like to take the highest risk/reward potential trades so I can give it a couple extra pips of breathing room to prevent these topping or bottoming tail candles from stopping out the trade. Still doing great for the month, not the best week so far but it's my fault, not the strategy.

EDIT: This is the last trade I'm referring to, the tail candle was brutal I'm sure it claimed a lot of stops.
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  • #159
  • Sep 28, 2017 6:27am Sep 28, 2017 6:27am
I seem to be getting better success rate on the 1hr.
I seem to fail regularly on the 15min.That might be my trade selection though and 1hr maybe more forgiving when trades are not 4/4
Not analyzed it properly though.
  • #160
  • Sep 28, 2017 7:04am Sep 28, 2017 7:04am
Quoting nihilist23uk
I seem to be getting better success rate on the 1hr. I seem to fail regularly on the 15min.That might be my trade selection though and 1hr maybe more forgiving when trades are not 4/4 Not analyzed it properly though.
15 minute definitely relies on better entries and cross checking the 1 hour chart to make sure your trade agrees with it and that you have enough room for it to work. Any time you take a shorter TP and SL you have a smaller chance of it succeeding because of the spread and vulnerability to short term spikes. I try to take the best of the best setups on the 15 minute chart because of this, you'll always have more flexibility on the 1 hour chart but far less opportunities.
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