Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2889 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,761
  • Sep 17, 2017 3:18am Sep 17, 2017 3:18am
Hello Friends,

Just some thoughts regarding the Forex Market nature and FF. Reminded by FTI that as soon as any FF participants post their exact and well tested consistency proving strategies/ methods, they are also well exploited by other "friendly" FF participants to trap. It's an endless game spiral. Newbies are coming here to learn from really honest successful traders (since their methods have indeed worked), and it's a matter of time when those methods become/ are developed as a new pitfall by market makers. Beast is fed by SL, then just show where is your SL and from where in your successful strategy. Of course, mostly people trust in a transparent trading method depicting exact entry and stop level (it's a prerequisite to believe). Here you are. What else may 90 - 99% be interested in FF. And yet, I may be wrong.

Therefore, AoW should stand as the only reliable strategy/ method.

Enjoy your Sunday, Friends!

Best regards, Exnav

P.S. New reliable strategy is depicted in the video below:
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,762
  • Sep 17, 2017 4:06am Sep 17, 2017 4:06am
Quoting Exnav
Hello Friends, Just some thoughts regarding the Forex Market nature and FF. Reminded by FTI that as soon as any FF participants post their exact and well tested consistency proving strategies/ methods, they are also well exploited by other "friendly" FF participants to trap. It's an endless game spiral. Newbies are coming here to learn from really honest successful traders (since their methods have indeed worked), and it's a matter of time when those methods become/ are developed as a new pitfall by market makers. Beast is fed by SL, then just show...


Sometimes you can put sl to bait a price out then hit them hard.

Throw some bait out, then hook them in.

Just like hensel and grettal and the bread crumbs.

Except the target is whoever is quoting price.

To fish a fish sometimes you have to throw some bait.
  • #57,763
  • Sep 17, 2017 9:02am Sep 17, 2017 9:02am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Sometimes you can put sl to bait a price out then hit them hard.
Hello CookieMonsta,

It's nice to see you here (at our TAF home base) and read a maverick sort thing. Assuming it's your strategy (bait by SL), be careful of the endless spiral

Let AoW be with us, humble retailers. Fair wind!

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,764
  • Edited 10:52pm Sep 17, 2017 9:02pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, It's nice to see you here (at our TAF home base) and read a maverick sort thing. Assuming it's your strategy (bait by SL), be careful of the endless spiral Let AoW be with us, humble retailers. Fair wind! Best regards, Exnav


Sometimes, I see market maker not in a hurry to take my stoploss, makes me wonder if sometimes do they already know I'm wrong so they not in a hurry to pop my stops.

Sometimes the stoploss baits the move which helps us figure out the mm's intention, which is pulsing market. So depends on how they take the stops I may or may not want the price.

Mainly because they can do counter moves too, so it's down to the same basic mo here, just that additional info is gleam when you test the mm.

Once you gleam that info where you feel mm is on to you, can just skew down to lower size even though mm has not hunted your position, many ways to use that info.

Sort of like chess, you see he moving to take position advantage in 3 moves, you can intercept and play defensive if feasible in 2 moves and disrupt his plans.

Read Jesse Livermore reminiscence of a stock operator, it's all there. He figured another manipulator was putting the price up against his position, he knows the manipulator is tied up in other positions big, he can strike at the weaker points to create an exploitable hole and force his hand, then move in to rescue the current position.

And at the high levels when fti is trading for the bank, it's similar in thinking process, guess that's why fti always uses the term sparring. Every move has an counter move.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mentalist

Nice show, and some of the ideas of reading people can be used to read mm too.
  • #57,765
  • Sep 18, 2017 5:21am Sep 18, 2017 5:21am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Sometimes you can put sl to bait a price out then hit them hard. Throw some bait out, then hook them in. Just like hensel and grettal and the bread crumbs. Except the target is whoever is quoting price. To fish a fish sometimes you have to throw some bait.
We need to find out if they are shooting ducks or are there real buyers or sellers sitting there.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,766
  • Sep 18, 2017 5:43am Sep 18, 2017 5:43am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} We need to find out if they are shooting ducks or are there real buyers or sellers sitting there. Alex
Yep, and it's through the feel of pa. But as always, no crystal ball, so always be ready to engage if pa does not turn out well, and snooked out of position.
  • #57,767
  • Sep 19, 2017 2:02am Sep 19, 2017 2:02am
Some Market flow energy before tomorrow's FED. Contrarian - call ambulance! (FTI)

Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,768
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:13am Sep 21, 2017 1:13am
Hello TAF Friends,

I would question myself how the below video pointed awareness would be helpful when we, retailers, are reading charts and price action. Is everything fixed? Geopolicy and psychology over TA and fundamentals. Assuming that, Mr Andre Minassin is trading based on his gut feeling, TA&fundamentals in complex. Anyway all the Pro related video would be of interest.

Best regards, Exnav
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,769
  • Sep 21, 2017 8:03am Sep 21, 2017 8:03am
Quoting Exnav
Hello TAF Friends, I would question myself how the below video pointed awareness would be helpful when we, retailers, are reading charts and price action. Is everything fixed? Geopolicy and psychology over TA and fundamentals. Assuming that, Mr Andre Minassin is trading based on his gut feeling, TA&fundamentals in complex. Anyway all the Pro related video would be of interest. Best regards, Exnav https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV_1OdpbO6o
cool, another interesting vid too.

Inserted Video
  • #57,770
  • Sep 21, 2017 11:53pm Sep 21, 2017 11:53pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} cool, another interesting vid too.
Hello CookieMonsta,

Thank you. It's about the same: experience, intuition and "a lot of other factors". There is a difference with FTI however, that's Mr Andre Minassin starts to trade on Tuesday afternoon and never engages a Friday. We might discretionary do otherwise, not losing self-control or whatever we are able/ granted to control in retailer trading.

Asia has already ignited some stirring. So, another interesting End of Week ahead, enjoy it!

Best regards, Exnav
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,771
  • Sep 22, 2017 1:21am Sep 22, 2017 1:21am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Thank you. It's about the same: experience, intuition and "a lot of other factors". There is a difference with FTI however, that's Mr Andre Minassin starts to trade on Tuesday afternoon and never engages a Friday. We might discretionary do otherwise, not losing self-control or whatever we are able/ granted to control in retailer trading. Asia has already ignited some stirring. So, another interesting End of Week ahead, enjoy it! Best regards, Exnav https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJSik6ejkr0
I have seen Mr andre's other vids on the same playlist, just my gut feel, he is an investor, diff mo, he does alot of fundamentals I believe, more a macro trader/investor than a pa trader.

Tuesday usually has a more nicer flow compared to Monday where mm starts to accumulate their position, and Friday mm is looking to square down, so it may deviate from price flow of underlying fundamentals because in shorter term mm is looking to square down.

So Tuesday to Thursday so usually where the more inline with fundamentals moves come in.

I have observed this quite abit too, it's a useful observation for swing traders.

But if trading taf mo, then the Monday and Friday moves are also pretty good profits too.

Consider the trading week, on Monday mm is already squared, so in order to have orders to service customers, they have to accumulate position sizing, so sporadic moves might come in and the quote around abit to try to develop their book, then Tuesday comes in where the major term macro flow comes in mm can them service them abit more. Then all the way till Friday, mm see maybe it's better to square down in case of weekend gap risk or event risk. So there is a Monday to Friday order. But sometimes events like NFP and fomc can throw these order of event off course and generate its own variation.
  • #57,772
  • Sep 23, 2017 1:57am Sep 23, 2017 1:57am
Hello TAF Friends,

Beneath you will find a video that I entirely endorse. How many times (now and then?) have we been psychologically human being wise trapped by market. The way is that we learn (must be always aware and stop repeating) from our own mistakes, then individual experience equipped by the AoW, discipline and self-control are of help.

On Friday I again fed the market with a SL (in BE+), missed a pre-planned entry opportunity at least twice but was finally satisfied with my diet filled. Back on Thursday I did a sort of revenge trading (entry on my intuition and experience) because felt not being in preplanned daily profit - that trade was later squarred in small profit, although if I had left it fluctuate I would have been in a rather BIG profit. Why did I square the trade out - Leverage 1:1.5 (not 1:15) was heavy for me to leave overnight...

Conclusion: I never know whether I'm able to learn from my OWN mistakes over 9 years... But the book is safe at least a sheer stupidity is under control.

Have a nice week-end,

Best regards, Exnav

Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,773
  • Sep 24, 2017 6:46pm Sep 24, 2017 6:46pm
Hi all, I've been reading this thread from the beginning and it seems to focus on EU - is that the best pair to trade or are there othrs that work better - I like the UJ for instance.
In detegere possumus omnes mortui sunt
  • #57,774
  • Sep 24, 2017 10:24pm Sep 24, 2017 10:24pm
Quoting Gamod
Hi all, I've been reading this thread from the beginning and it seems to focus on EU - is that the best pair to trade or are there othrs that work better - I like the UJ for instance.
Hi Gamod,

There are no best pairs in the g7 pairs, crosses have wider spreads so majors are usually cheaper.

Sometimes when a country's fundamentals are affecting it, like let's say brexit, it affects pound, then because it affects the EZ, euro is affected too from the eurgbp cross, and because gbpjpy is called the dragon, to the extend that people give it a nick name, it's pretty heavily speculated. So in this case. All are related to one another, just some more liquid than the other, so some are easier to speculate at some times than the other, then when certain situation happen, the easyness rotates again.

Best treat them all the same.
  • #57,775
  • Sep 25, 2017 6:17am Sep 25, 2017 6:17am
Quoting Gamod
Hi all, I've been reading this thread from the beginning and it seems to focus on EU - is that the best pair to trade or are there othrs that work better - I like the UJ for instance.
- does it? - I do not think so. Of course EU is heavily traded so generally liquid market. Lots of news at the mo'. Search the thread for Rok - Romance of kingdoms and read about it all.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,776
  • Sep 26, 2017 4:40am Sep 26, 2017 4:40am
This few days price action really put a good test at a trader skill, every pair relation went out of norm, when those pair teared, after one session it go back into sync, and then tear again, coupled with high volatility, very interesting. This kind of trendless high volatility really get a lot of trader killed, especially when position is big and loss is unbearable, or death by a thousand cut from this no carry through trend.

Positions are all in loss after a few stop hunt, rescue is not wide anymore as total floating loss to book size is too large (40%) , fortunately have positioned for larger timeframe trend and bought the strongest pair. Hopefully trend will kick in helping me to come out, nothing much I can do now.

Made a crucial mistake, did not pay too much attention on daily and weekly which most big boys based their decision on. Did not enter at the edge, got caught in the middle.

Now is death match, do or die!

Regards
  • #57,777
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:17am Sep 26, 2017 9:17am
Quoting GoldenFinger
This few days price action really put a good test at a trader skill, every pair relation went out of norm, when those pair teared, after one session it go back into sync, and then tear again, coupled with high volatility, very interesting. This kind of trendless high volatility really get a lot of trader killed, especially when position is big and loss is unbearable, or death by a thousand cut from this no carry through trend. Positions are all in loss after a few stop hunt, rescue is not wide anymore as total floating loss to book size is too large...

Hi GoldenFinger

Never good to hear someone is in a death battle.

Maybe these few text out of AOW can give you an idea or two on salvaging some or all of that trade.

7. It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on.
8. The skillful soldier does not raise a second levy, neither are his supply wagons loaded more than twice.
9. Bring war material with you from home, but forage on the enemy. Thus the army will have food enough for its needs.


Trouble is I used to find is that once you hit a certain point of drawdown it can make you freeze and no longer be able to see/read or think about what is going on, unfortunately for us relying on ‘hope’ is not good for us generally, sure sometime it will pay off but it only takes once to blow the account.

Our friend fti has also suggested many options like cutting some or all and also if you can reload with some more funds helps while the loss is still manageable, no one likes going backwards but -40% to recover in the wells wilder table of loss is a massive task if you do not have any well practised counter strategies/tactics.

Here is the table (post) just in case you forgot about it or missed it….

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The concept is as the following table

% Loss intial capital % profit required to Recover
5----------------------5.3
10----------------------11.1
15----------------------17.6
20-----------------------25
25----------------------33.3
30----------------------42.9
35----------------------53.8
40----------------------66.7
45----------------------81.8
50----------------------100
55----------------------122
60----------------------150
65----------------------186
70-----------------------233
75------------------300
80------------------400
85------------------567
90------------------900

The % gain required to to come back to balance (break even) will increase gemetrically with your losses.
if you loss 20% of your capital. you will have to make 25% to come back to breakeven.
However if you lose 50% of your capital, you have to make 100% to come back to break even

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Best of luck with it whatever you decide to do.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,778
  • Sep 26, 2017 12:41pm Sep 26, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting GoldenFinger
especially when position is big and loss is unbearable, or death by a thousand cut from this no carry through trend. Positions are all in loss after a few stop hunt, rescue is not wide anymore as total floating loss to book size is too large (40%) , Now is death match, do or die!
Hello GoldenFinger,

Phil has brought some valuable points to realize. Personally, I was unable to give my feedback at once because my focus was on my own battle (do or die). Now, as it finished with a successful counter attack, I'm able to share a little as well, the way that I would not advise you on anything but how I'm actually fighting:

1. I do not engage in more than one pair at once unless formers are secured (in profit and run in green), it's due to focus properly and have sufficient resources to respond in force major;
2. Recently I got rid of the Leverage attractiveness, thus my battles never exceed 3x of my trading accounts total amount, that 3x would be at the last resolution counter attack before biting the bullet; Do or Die - would mean no more than 2% equity DD and that is well within my pain threshold.

BTW, e.g., if my equity were some 1k, I would probably sustain the 40% DD since it were within my pain threshold and that CAP would imply just training costs. Although, it's very individual (100 USD versus 1 M USD, etc.)

If trapped in DD, I would take into consideration the point 2, making my position size as lighter as possible so that to make BE+ when terrain let me do so. If there is no favorable terrain, no fortunate news driven PA and the threshold touched, I merely bite the bullet. Next day, I'm in battle again.

I think, nothing is new in above mentioned and it would be in line with FTI. Be humble and nimble!

Take care, Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,779
  • Edited 7:32pm Sep 27, 2017 7:14pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting GoldenFinger
This few days price action really put a good test at a trader skill, every pair relation went out of norm, when those pair teared, after one session it go back into sync, and then tear again, coupled with high volatility, very interesting. This kind of trendless high volatility really get a lot of trader killed, especially when position is big and loss is unbearable, or death by a thousand cut from this no carry through trend. Positions are all in loss after a few stop hunt, rescue is not wide anymore as total floating loss to book size is too large...
Hi, we had quite afew fundamental scares around these few days, like nk coming out with some statement, it's been throwing the markets around, we live in unstable times.

Watch NY morning, and do hit and runs are the best options in such terrain unless you have means to sustain position across wider changes in volatility settings.

I have been noticing ny mornings is where they all sit still and watch, like waiting for something or someone to pass and give them the green like to engage.

Anyway I feel the fundamentals are really odd now, like USD at times is no longer the driver, and eurjpy and gbpjpy may be taking the bulk of it, by nature of usdjpy relation. Also, I wonder if cnyusd should be factored in.

It always felt weird when eurgbp spread is lower than gbpusd.
  • #57,780
  • Sep 28, 2017 11:45pm Sep 28, 2017 11:45pm
Hello TAF Friends,

I have just watched the Perfect Storm movie for the first time. And there might be something to literally plunge so to reflect the 40% DD raised by our friends GoldFinger and CookieMonsta thoughts (in his own thread) "The opening to rescue may not come till a very long time later, so if this is the case, an extended waiting time is required but meanwhile, the book is exposed to volatility. The ability of the trader to succeed at these circumstances, depends entirely on their mm and logistics." As I wrote, recently Phil well pointed out as well on possible options and consequances. So right is CookieMonsta.

Well, IMO the Perfect Storm may provide some good hints so visually exhibited. One may read a terrain, see a danger coming but proceed ahead by his overconfidence and greed. Excellent if luckily passes through, otherwise - indeed dead in waters. No terrain and disaster awareness, nor there sound timely response/ MM. Whatever DD were, no STOP (greed, hope, overconfidence), march or die. Keeping the below referred pictures in mind... Paramount to survive in markets.

Best regards, Exnav
Inserted Video

Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
82 traders viewing now