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Simple Low Risk Price Action Trading w/ TE Results

  • #41
  • Sep 19, 2017 10:52am Sep 19, 2017 10:52am
Thanks for the strat, it looks interesting. I agree if you can get a EA it could be a winner. I have a couple indicators I use in another strat simular to this one that you may want to impliment into your strat. One is just an alert that tells you when the stoch crosses either 70 or 30. The other plots out the divergence on the chart and or the stoch indicator. I will share my template with all your op settings. My indicators will help I think, if you dont agree please say so and people can ignore my post.

Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Stochastics Divergence.ex4   12 KB | 634 downloads
File Type: mq4 Stochastics Divergence.mq4   12 KB | 673 downloads
File Type: ex4 _Stochastic_Cross_Alert_SigOverlayM_cw.ex4   13 KB | 580 downloads
File Type: mq4 _Stochastic_Cross_Alert_SigOverlayM_cw.mq4   6 KB | 612 downloads
File Type: ex4 iclock_mod1.ex4   17 KB | 560 downloads
File Type: tpl Embry1 Strategy Template Angelica V1.tpl   197 KB | 614 downloads
  • #42
  • Sep 19, 2017 11:57am Sep 19, 2017 11:57am
Quoting AngelicaMari
Thanks for the strat, it looks interesting. I agree if you can get a EA it could be a winner. I have a couple indicators I use in another strat simular to this one that you may want to impliment into your strat. One is just an alert that tells you when the stoch crosses either 70 or 30. The other plots out the divergence on the chart and or the stoch indicator. I will share my template with all your op settings. My indicators will help I think, if you dont agree please say so and people can ignore my post. Cheers {file} {file} {file} {file} {file}...
That's a nice template, seems to be easy to use for this strategy. I'd have to watch it for a while to see if I would prefer to use it. I do really like the divergence lines. One thing I do want to avoid is over analyzing this strategy because it's meant to be very simple which it is. I've seen a lot of strategies get over analyzed because everyone wants to make a strategy 100% loss proof which is never going to happen, but you can certainly have low risks with high rewards. However I don't think the template crosses that line as far as an over analysis, I will keep it open on a couple of pairs for testing. What I'll be looking for are the same setups as the original strategy but as I see the signals line up I'll look at your indicators to see if they would encourage me to take the trade or discourage the trade or have no influence. Thanks for sharing your indicators for the strategy.
  • #43
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:00pm Sep 19, 2017 1:00pm
got a 35 pip winner today !
only had a few hrs today so pleased I managed to find one.It was just over 1/1 risk so I took it.The thing that I wasnt sure about was, I was awaiting my new candle to open and the stoch hadn't crossed the 30 line.As soon as the new candle opened it was then below so trade was opened but as the stoch is based on close it soon moved.So looking at the trade now it looks like it was never below the 30 line.
Did I jump the gun or was that ok to do ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 276 KB
  • #44
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:17pm Sep 19, 2017 1:17pm
Good work. No you didn't jump the gun, as long as you saw the signals forming and the next candle opened with 4/4 signals then it's a valid 4/4. Even if it didn't, on a day like today where there was almost nothing to choose from a strong 3/4 signal with that huge divergence in the stoch would get me excited. I highlighted the divergence in this pic. Most EUR pairs had really strong signals early this morning and NZD/USD also had some great moves on the 15 minute chart. Unfortunately I just missed them today but it was quite a choppy day so sitting on my hands isn't the worst option. Will look for more opportunities in the tokyo session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 091917 NZDCAD.JPG Size: 893 KB
  • #45
  • Sep 19, 2017 5:02pm Sep 19, 2017 5:02pm
Great info,thanks. Im not up on divergence. Does movement usually follow the price divergence direction as opposed to the indicator direction,or are we just looking at it as upcoming direction change ?
  • #46
  • Edited 5:46pm Sep 19, 2017 5:27pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting nihilist23uk
Great info,thanks. Im not up on divergence. Does movement usually follow the price divergence direction as opposed to the indicator direction,or are we just looking at it as upcoming direction change ?
So divergence is an extremely important thing to be aware of and look for in any strategy, it's just a common tool in any form of trading. Here's how to identify it with stochastic:

First, AngelicaMari just shared a good indicator for stochastic divergence and I recommend downloading it if you want help identifying when it happens. It's actually very common and paired with other indicator signals it can make great moves.

In this picture each orange line on the stochastic is bullish divergence meaning the previous low point was higher than the current low point and both under the 30 stoch line. The divergence happens when on the chart you see that the previous low point is lower than the current low point. The chart makes more sense than that explanation.

Bearish divergence is the opposite of course. You look for the previous high to be lower than the current high resulting in that divergence line slanting upwards and the price.

Second picture is how you could essentially weave in and out of trades using just divergence and the 100 EMA. I wouldn't take all of these trades but on days where you don't get great setups it's very useful to know what else to look for.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 091917 Divergence Example.JPG Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 091917 Divergence 2.JPG Size: 196 KB
  • #47
  • Sep 19, 2017 5:34pm Sep 19, 2017 5:34pm
Quoting Embry1
{quote} So divergence is an extremely important thing to be aware of and look for in any strategy, it's just a common tool in any form of trading. Here's how to identify it with stochastic: First, AngelicaMari just shared a good indicator for stochastic divergence and I recommend downloading it if you want help identifying when it happens. It's actually very common and paired with other indicator signals it can make great moves. In this picture each orange line on the stochastic is bullish divergence meaning the previous low point was higher than...
Brilliant,Thanks,chart makes it very clear.I will download indicator now as it makes it very easy to spot.
  • #48
  • Sep 19, 2017 8:27pm Sep 19, 2017 8:27pm
hi embry1
thanks for sharing im subscribed
  • #49
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:06am Sep 20, 2017 12:06am
So let's make this clear... What we are looking for?

BUY (4/4)
Price must be above 100 EMA
Stoch must be at 30 and crossing up
Price above Parabolic SAR
Price above the middle of BB

And vice versa for SELL

Is that correct?
  • #50
  • Sep 20, 2017 6:54am Sep 20, 2017 6:54am
Quoting jnfer
So let's make this clear... What we are looking for? BUY (4/4) Price must be above 100 EMA Stoch must be at 30 and crossing up Price above Parabolic SAR Price above the middle of BB And vice versa for SELL Is that correct?
Yes, the only thing I would say is that the price does not have to be crossing back above 30 or below 70. Once you see the signals forming wait for the current candle to close and if the next candle still holds all 4/4 signals then enter. You can also find good entries with just 3/4 signals but 100 EMA must be one of them. The other rule is to not take a trade with any less than a 1:1 risk reward. That means that price should be pretty close to the nearest signal like the PSAR and/or middle bollinger band. For the best risk/reward you want to have your stop loss under the price where you would only have 2/4 signals. Example would be if the price would cross the PSAR and middle bollinger band then have your stop loss just under that. If the price is further away to the PSAR and middle bollinger band than your potential target profit, don't take the trade. Also look for divergence as mentioned in previous posts.
  • #51
  • Sep 20, 2017 7:26am Sep 20, 2017 7:26am
no one that can code this idea to an EA? I would...if I could.
  • #52
  • Sep 20, 2017 7:54am Sep 20, 2017 7:54am
I made a goof on the CHF/JPY and took a short position when I realized the PSAR was above the 100 EMA. Being a US trader I seem to wake up after a lot of the good stuff happens unfortunately so sometimes I have to take less than perfect setups. Luckily it was just a 10 pip loss. I wanted to show a good example of what to look for when you can't find the perfect setup because they aren't always out there.

Both times the stoch crosses below 30 you can see that only 3/4 signals line up. What's significant about these moves is that there is strong bullish divergence on both occasions and resulted in two nice bull moves. I'm going through lots of charts and seeing the importance of divergence with this strategy. Now if only I were awake to catch these.

Second picture is the same chart on the 1H time frame. This occurs 3 times but two of the times you also see 4/4 signals lining up, absolute huge moves and extremely little risk.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092918 AUDJPY 1.JPG Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092017 AUDJPY 2.JPG Size: 275 KB
  • #53
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:17am Sep 20, 2017 9:17am
Spotted a nice trade here on the GBP/USD 1 Hour chart. Great move earlier from the news and was looking for a continuation. Saw 4/4 signals with very low risk and took it. It could certainly keep going but for now the 15 minute chart looks like it's about done for this leg but we'll see. I would want a better looking 15 minute chart to get back into this one.

Honorable mention for the NZD/USD. I didn't take this one because it was overextended and PSAR was very low. But you could have easily taken a low risk trade here if you used the middle bollinger band as your SL. What I really liked here was the double bullish divergence on top of 4/4 signals. Would have definitely taken this had the PSAR been closer.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092017 GBPUSD 1.JPG Size: 342 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092017 NZDUSD 1.JPG Size: 145 KB
  • #54
  • Sep 20, 2017 10:45am Sep 20, 2017 10:45am
joined earlier & looking forward to a positive ride. When you say check higher/lower TFs prior to entry are you just trying to get agreement on EMA? Also, do you look for small spread pairs on M15 trades or are you checking all pairs all the time? I'm east coast time and get up at 5 to try and get some of the London open but it always seems like the action is from 3-5:-) Preciate your sharing
  • #55
  • Sep 20, 2017 11:09am Sep 20, 2017 11:09am
Quoting vikvikram
joined earlier & looking forward to a positive ride. When you say check higher/lower TFs prior to entry are you just trying to get agreement on EMA? Also, do you look for small spread pairs on M15 trades or are you checking all pairs all the time? I'm east coast time and get up at 5 to try and get some of the London open but it always seems like the action is from 3-5:-) Preciate your sharing
Yeah the EMA would be most important to check, not to say that it completely rules out a viable trade if it's on the wrong side of the EMA but say the price is on the wrong side of the EMA and the wrong side of the stoch for your trade, then I would be a little hesitant. I also check to make sure the trade has enough room for at least a 1:1 risk/reward. If you check the 1H chart and it's close to resistance just be careful.

As far as spreads I don't typically trade pairs over 3 pips of spread. For me that means I'm usually not trading the NZD/CAD, GBP/NZD, NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY, CAD/CHF, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD. Those I would only look for great setups on the 1 hour chart.
  • #56
  • Sep 20, 2017 11:33am Sep 20, 2017 11:33am
Hi Embry1

Love the simplicity of the strat. Thanks for sharing. Great quick pip catching strategy. I've added another Indi so I can see most of the indicators on all their TF at once. Just for extra confluence.

thanks again.

P
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-20 (1).png Size: 94 KB
  • #57
  • Sep 20, 2017 11:56am Sep 20, 2017 11:56am
Quoting Pdonaldau2
Hi Embry1 Love the simplicity of the strat. Thanks for sharing. Great quick pip catching strategy. I've added another Indi so I can see most of the indicators on all their TF at once. Just for extra confluence. thanks again. P {image}
Looks like you're about to hit TP if you haven't already. Make sure not to enter too late because you had a really good risk/reward set up and your entry turned it into a 1:1 instead of something like a 1:3.

Just two posts above I mentioned this exact trade because I spotted it on the 1H chart and exited until a new setup formed on the 15 minute chart. I even left room on the 1 hour chart for the next move. This just goes to show how strong these signals are especially with the use of divergence.

The first picture is the original trade. Second and third picture are the 1H chart and 15 minute chart after the first move.

I also have attached a new template including divergence if you've already downloaded the indicators. For me I took out the alert noise and the clock but that's just preference. Also coloring changes for higher visibility.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 092017 GBPUSD 1.JPG Size: 342 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092017 GBPUSD 2.JPG Size: 304 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 092017 GBPUSD 3.JPG Size: 117 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Embry1 Strategy Template Divergence.tpl   335 KB | 355 downloads
  • #58
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:17pm Sep 20, 2017 12:17pm
Thanks Embry

I noticed in time to adjust the TP to a 1:2 but couldn't stay at the computer so opted for safety. Kids, Homework, dinner...life gets in the way of trading from tie to time.
  • #59
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:22pm Sep 20, 2017 12:22pm
Quoting Pdonaldau2
Thanks Embry I noticed in time to adjust the TP to a 1:2 but couldn't stay at the computer so opted for safety. Kids, Homework, dinner...life gets in the way of trading from tie to time.
I was just referring to the entry. I understand if you missed a better entry, I do that all the time lol. Don't adjust the TP because you have structure there and it's probably already hit that. A 1:1 is fine with a great setup like that I was just saying there was a much better opportunity for entry if you were able to see it in time. Still a great trade.
  • #60
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:23pm Sep 20, 2017 1:23pm
did you enter planning to exit prior to fomc or does news not bother you?
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