C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread | Page 267 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Thread using any Indicator 64 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

Alifari's - Supply & Demand Thread 17 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread
Exit Attachments

C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #5,321
  • Sep 16, 2017 1:38am Sep 16, 2017 1:38am
Quoting fxloser
thank u sir ... one most important and confusing question .. is how mark a zone . i read so many book and videos .. i want to know how u mark a zone ? your one reply can solve my big problem thankx
Just using S/D indicator .....
below link ..
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...26#post8848926
  • #5,322
  • Sep 16, 2017 11:06am Sep 16, 2017 11:06am
is this chaos semafor and 4x3semafor are same indicators or different in settings
because 4x3 semafor indicator hardly recalculating... thatsy asking
Success is a Journey Not a Destination....... kind regards ramzam
  • #5,323
  • Sep 16, 2017 11:13pm Sep 16, 2017 11:13pm
Hi LinFx,

Here is sample ... nice entry point at TLS area ...

TLS = Trend, Level and Signal ...

Trend = Always check and respect the higher time frame of trend direction ....
Level = Always waiting price at the level S/D area or 50%/61.8% to decide entry point
Signal = Always entry after signal price action, engulfing candle, pin bar, inside bar ..... so easy to you decide your RISK/SL and Reward profit target ...

just check the chart below of GU H1 ............

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 46 KB


Cheers
  • #5,324
  • Edited Sep 17, 2017 3:00am Sep 16, 2017 11:38pm | Edited Sep 17, 2017 3:00am
Quoting mrhb30jr
Hi LinFx, Here is sample ... nice entry point at TLS area ... TLS = Trend, Level and Signal ... Trend = Always check and respect the higher time frame of trend direction .... Level = Always waiting price at the level S/D area or 50%/61.8% to decide entry point Signal = Always entry after signal price action, engulfing candle, pin bar, inside bar ..... so easy to you decide your RISK/SL and Reward profit target ... just check the chart below of GU H1 ............ {image} Cheers
Hey there Sir,

Thank you so much for your TLS example! This is one hell of great example!

Minimizing SL in your first TLS area:

M30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: I1OkUGC.png Size: 50 KB


M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bQYSOJN.png Size: 42 KB


M1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6QQPjn1.png Size: 49 KB


Second area:

H1 & M5:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pMY381J.png Size: 61 KB


M1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ULtXwtg.png Size: 46 KB


It's easy finding these areas with after the fact chart. It's very hard in real live condition.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance
  • #5,325
  • Sep 17, 2017 3:02pm Sep 17, 2017 3:02pm
C-12 -

I've been going over charts again this weekend. What made you decide to take entries based on PA such as engulfing candles, etc vs. the initial touch of a zone? You're still placing stops just outside the zone you're playing off right?

Did you find that losses are so much less often with the PA confirmation that it makes up for stops being larger? Entering on the touch of a zone has less wins, but stops are smaller. Going over lots of charts I haven't noticed a benefit of either so I was wondering what your reasons were.

Is it just the mental aspect and being more confident in the trade? It is tough going in blind sometimes off just the touch of a zone! Although you feel like a genius when it works lol.
  • #5,326
  • Edited 12:22pm Sep 18, 2017 12:05pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting jack411
C-12 - I've been going over charts again this weekend. What made you decide to take entries based on PA such as engulfing candles, etc vs. the initial touch of a zone? You're still placing stops just outside the zone you're playing off right? Did you find that losses are so much less often with the PA confirmation that it makes up for stops being larger? Entering on the touch of a zone has less wins, but stops are smaller. Going over lots of charts I haven't noticed a benefit of either so I was wondering what your reasons were. Is it just the mental...
Yeah, basically what you said about touch trades. Stops still go behind zones mostly, it hurts RR but the probability is higher.

There are hundreds of zones on any pair at any time (from higher TF down to lower). Some people do very well picking them (and the RR is great).

I just prefer to get a higher TF direction and use the lower TF PA to give me an entry once I've got a confirmed direction..

I traded GU today based on PA rather than the zones. Unfortunately the RR wasn't great as SL was above the fresh M30 supply since you never know if it wants to retest it. Will hold one to run as we haven't reached a meaningful demand yet.

Nothing to do on EU today.. Took a few small scrappy losses early in the session but GU more than covered it.

If only trading EU then I would have commit suicide based on today's lack of action....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 76 KB
  • #5,327
  • Sep 18, 2017 12:33pm Sep 18, 2017 12:33pm
One thing I'm still guilty of is flip flopping around and getting wrong footed on PA. It's almost always during those ultra slow days where I anticipate a move that doesn't happen..

I need to be on guard with this since I can quickly grind down a days worth of profits before the session has even got going.

I can usually trust myself to recover it but it's not fun. Due to my working hours I'm forced into having to take an entry before I leave the house and that isn't always ideal.

It's best to wait until a trade is primed and ready to go with solid PA...
  • #5,328
  • Sep 18, 2017 2:00pm Sep 18, 2017 2:00pm
What time zone/hours do you typically trade EU?


Quoting C-12
{quote} Yeah, basically what you said about touch trades. Stops still go behind zones mostly, it hurts RR but the probability is higher. There are hundreds of zones on any pair at any time (from higher TF down to lower). Some people do very well picking them (and the RR is great). I just prefer to get a higher TF direction and use the lower TF PA to give me an entry once I've got a confirmed direction.. I traded GU today based on PA rather than the zones. Unfortunately the RR wasn't great as SL was above the fresh M30 supply since you never know...
  • #5,329
  • Sep 18, 2017 2:41pm Sep 18, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting jack411
What time zone/hours do you typically trade EU? {quote}
The London open is 8am here and I'm usually out of the house by 8:35am.

I remote back to my PC at work and get the occasional view of the days action. Not ideal but it's still racking up live screentime experience.

I get home from work, review the days action then rinse and repeat like groundhog day,
  • #5,330
  • Sep 18, 2017 2:48pm Sep 18, 2017 2:48pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} The London open is 8am here and I'm usually out of the house by 8:35am. I remote back to my PC at work and get the occasional view of the days action. Not ideal but it's still racking up live screentime experience. I get home from work, review the days action then rinse and repeat like groundhog day,

I used to think the New York session was the only session worth trading but using supply and demand have noticed many opportunities during London as well.
  • #5,331
  • Sep 18, 2017 3:00pm Sep 18, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} I used to think the New York session was the only session worth trading but using supply and demand have noticed many opportunities during London as well.
Best times are usually these:

Frankfurt - You can sometimes pick a nice scalp out of this session.
London open - Usually things start moving and there's always at least a 20 pip + trade on offer.
30 mins Pre NY open - The prime time to look for trades. (especially pre-news).
Late NY - Sometimes you get another late session scalp setup, sometimes it's dead.

It depends on what news output is expected for the day / week.

There are also many dead zones in between these periods that have to be avoided.

Unfortunately all this stuff means that live screentime has to be accumulated over many years. There's no shortcuts to learning this.

Most people don't have the heart for this work and keep going from one holy grail system to another...
  • #5,332
  • Sep 18, 2017 4:03pm Sep 18, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting C-12
I need to be on guard with this
Sounds like you need some precision drilling.

Inserted Video
  • #5,333
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:14pm Sep 19, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Sounds like you need some precision drilling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25Qhbdijv5Y
Hahaha definitely needed for me.

Well we have FOMC up tomorrow. These are sometimes big key reversal days.

What's interesting is we have both H4 supply on EU / GU. Do we get an initial run up and a reversal...? Or do these zones get taken out?

It's difficult to catch these moves without limit orders since price will often not wait around for PA to form.

Of course the sensible option is to sit out on the sidelines.
  • #5,334
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:11pm Sep 19, 2017 1:11pm
Anyway, here's some M30/M15 scalps on EU... Let's see if lower goes up to H4 zone.

You can see that M30 is probably offering the more cleaner zones + PA and probably is the better of the lower timeframes in my eyes,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 101 KB
  • #5,335
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:17pm Sep 19, 2017 1:17pm
M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 73 KB
  • #5,336
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:57pm Sep 19, 2017 1:57pm
So these trades were taken based on being inside the 5 min zone that was inside the 15 min zone that was inside the 30 min zone, correct?
Except for maybe that last long. That just looks like PA after the 5 min zone formed.


Quoting C-12
M5 {image}
  • #5,337
  • Sep 19, 2017 2:04pm Sep 19, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting jack411
So these trades were taken based on being inside the 5 min zone that was inside the 15 min zone that was inside the 30 min zone, correct? Except for maybe that last long. That just looks like PA after the 5 min zone formed. {quote}
Yep, that was exactly it, that's why the multiple TF's are great when stacked ..

You see exactly why price is reacting at every area and you can almost guarantee there's a zone involved on some time frame.

There was a good reason for looking for longs only and that was all on H4.
  • #5,338
  • Sep 19, 2017 2:26pm Sep 19, 2017 2:26pm
Quoting C-12
Of course the sensible option is to sit out on the sidelines.
Probably the more profitable option too, at least until the excitement's died down.
  • #5,339
  • Sep 19, 2017 2:44pm Sep 19, 2017 2:44pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Probably the more profitable option too, at least until the excitement's died down.
You're right, you never know what they have in mind for tomorrow's setup and you don't want to stand in front of a freight train.

Sometimes I look at a chart like this, then look at the news calendar and the setup almost looks too obvious...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 92 KB
  • #5,340
  • Sep 19, 2017 2:55pm Sep 19, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} You're right, you never know what they have in mind for tomorrow's setup and you don't want to stand in front of a freight train. Sometimes I look at a chart like this, then look at the news calendar and the setup almost looks too obvious... {image}
Yea, there was some nice M30 PA inside that H4 zone.

USDCAD's looking tasty. Flagged in the right place. Gotta wonder how deep they retrace it here and whether or not they'll use tomorrow's FOMC to push it up to that W1 confluence:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 30 KB
10 traders viewing now