Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 438 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #8,741
  • Sep 18, 2017 9:11am Sep 18, 2017 9:11am
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Hi Yunvic, when all 3 TF are going up, yes, it's not possible to draw descending TL. The question you need to ask yourself, is why do you want to short when all the TF are going up? Are you trying to catch top and bottom? You know there is a saying : "Scalp when you're not with the trend, and hold when you're with the trend". But of course, at the end of the day, trend is dependent on timeframe, you can have up trend on monthly, weekly, daily, but a down trend on 1-min. I think you're still missing a trading plan. Anyway, I am not trying...
Thanks, Tibetian.
Do you mean that if I trade W-D-H4 then other TFs are irrelevant totally for my analysis?
  • #8,742
  • Sep 18, 2017 11:14am Sep 18, 2017 11:14am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Thanks, Tibetian. Do you mean that if I trade W-D-H4 then other TFs are irrelevant totally for my analysis?

hi Yunvic,

i think you will have to decide on which combination you want to do and stick with them. anything more would be over-analyzing and anything less would be self-deceiving.
cheers
  • #8,743
  • Sep 18, 2017 11:47am Sep 18, 2017 11:47am
Quoting judysfriend
{quote} hi Yunvic, i think you will have to decide on which combination you want to do and stick with them. anything more would be over-analyzing and anything less would be self-deceiving. cheers
OK, Judysfriend and Tibetian. I understood you as next. Suppose we have an uptrend on W and PA is coming up to valid tradable SZ. Then we wait while PA start to react and form downtrend on D or at least H4 and after it formed start to look for enter, despite the fact that uptrend on W is not broken yet. Correct?
  • #8,744
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:18am Sep 19, 2017 12:18am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} OK, Judysfriend and Tibetian. I understood you as next. Suppose we have an uptrend on W and PA is coming up to valid tradable SZ. Then we wait while PA start to react and form downtrend on D or at least H4 and after it formed start to look for enter, despite the fact that uptrend on W is not broken yet. Correct?
Unless you also trade on counter trend, otherwise as a trendfollower, you should never go against the direction of higher timeframe.
In your case, since the uptrend of W still holds, you should always only look for a buy setup in D or H4.
  • #8,745
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:32am Sep 19, 2017 12:32am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Thanks, Tibetian. Do you mean that if I trade W-D-H4 then other TFs are irrelevant totally for my analysis?
Yes.
Now tell us the 3 TFs you're going to use. You can have the following choices:
-M/W/D
-W/D/H4
-D/H4/H1
-H4/H1/M15

Pick one combo (Alfonso has a technical name for this, he calls it the "Sequence").

So, what is your "sequence"?
  • #8,746
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:15am Sep 19, 2017 1:15am
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Yes. Now tell us the 3 TFs you're going to use. You can have the following choices: -M/W/D -W/D/H4 -D/H4/H1 -H4/H1/M15 Pick one combo (Alfonso has a technical name for this, he calls it the "Sequence"). So, what is your "sequence"?
I try mostly W-D-H4. I've tried lower but got more frequent losses. When I feel secure on higher TFs I will try lower again.
  • #8,747
  • Sep 19, 2017 4:29am Sep 19, 2017 4:29am
Hello Alfonso,
Hello eveyrone,

I watched a video of Alfonso in which he explains that he also trades a 2 time frames combo (for instance the W/H4 for swing trading or the M/D for position trading).
Of course I watched a lot of other videos in which he clearly states that he trades the regular 3TF combo.

Is there a set of rules available for trading the 2 time frames combo? I imagine that since you skip the middle time frame, you still have to incorporate the rules related to that time frame into the 2 remaining ones ? A clarification as to how to trade the 2 time frames setup would be very helpful.

Also, Alfonso if you're reading this message, could you explain what would make you trade one setup instead the other ? Which one has your preference and why (although I fully understand that the 3TF setup gives more depth to the analysis).

Thanks!
  • #8,748
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:40pm Sep 19, 2017 12:40pm
Quoting Duvdevan
Hello Alfonso, Hello eveyrone, I watched a video of Alfonso in which he explains that he also trades a 2 time frames combo (for instance the W/H4 for swing trading or the M/D for position trading). Of course I watched a lot of other videos in which he clearly states that he trades the regular 3TF combo. Is there a set of rules available for trading the 2 time frames combo? I imagine that since you skip the middle time frame, you still have to incorporate the rules related to that time frame into the 2 remaining ones ? A clarification as to how to...
Hi Duvdevan, I believe the 2 x TF combo method is outdated. Look at his new videos, they are all 3xTF combo ("Sequence")

you can't expect anyone to lay out all their rules for you in this open forum, especially when their rules work! Trading is a business, and every successful business has its own secret recipe. If you really want to know the rules I suggest you subscribe to his forum. But knowing the rules is one thing, be able to execute and follow through is a completely different thing. There are thousand ways to make money using Supply and Demand principles, it's difficult to find two SD traders trade exactly the same way, because every person is different.

Just to give you a flavor, in its simplest form, the highest odds setup occurs when all 3 TFs are trending, assuming your sequence is MN/WK/D1:
If MN Up, WK Up, D1 Up, so you buy at ALL valid D1 DZ (note the word 'valid')

And then we have this second scenario:
If MN Up, WK Up, D1 Down! So, you wait until price drop to valid WK DZ, and inside this WK DZ, you look for nested D1 DZ to you buy there.

Now remember one thing, price charts don't always look clean, every setup needs to be evaluated in the right CONTEXT. Nothing can replace hard work... expect to spend thousands of hours on charts.

Happy trading!
T
  • #8,749
  • Sep 19, 2017 1:43pm Sep 19, 2017 1:43pm
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Hi Duvdevan, I believe the 2 x TF combo method is outdated. Look at his new videos, they are all 3xTF combo ("Sequence") you can't expect anyone to lay out all their rules for you in this open forum, especially when their rules work! Trading is a business, and every successful business has its own secret recipe. If you really want to know the rules I suggest you subscribe to his forum. But knowing the rules is one thing, be able to execute and follow through is a completely different thing. There are thousand ways to make money using Supply...
Good, Tibetian! Very lucid and helpful. Thanks!
  • #8,750
  • Edited 5:32pm Sep 19, 2017 5:22pm | Edited 5:32pm
Forex pair EURAUD rallied and created strong monthly demand imbalances after removing opposing supply levels. In an uptrend supply zones are removed and demand imbalances and levels are respected. Monthly demand zones being created as well, longer term long bias at super strong weekly demand level or longs at new areas of demand in lower timeframes


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Supply and demand forex and stocks trading analysis
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,751
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:25am Sep 20, 2017 3:25am
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Hi Duvdevan, I believe the 2 x TF combo method is outdated. Look at his new videos, they are all 3xTF combo ("Sequence") you can't expect anyone to lay out all their rules for you in this open forum, especially when their rules work! Trading is a business, and every successful business has its own secret recipe. If you really want to know the rules I suggest you subscribe to his forum. But knowing the rules is one thing, be able to execute and follow through is a completely different thing. There are thousand ways to make money using Supply...
Thanks for your reply mate.
Good trading !
  • #8,752
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:13am Sep 20, 2017 4:13am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Rmrf, I am new to SAD metodoogy. Please, what you mean "parents" and "children" on your chart? Regards.
means fresh levels = parents, the children are the intermediate levels along the way where smaller zones form, ultimately price reacts most wildly at the parent zones here is a short youtube of someone talking about parent and children as it relates to Supply and Demand
Inserted Video
  • #8,753
  • Sep 20, 2017 6:28am Sep 20, 2017 6:28am
Quoting rmrf
{quote} means fresh levels = parents, the children are the intermediate levels along the way where smaller zones form, ultimately price reacts most wildly at the parent zones here is a short youtube of someone talking about parent and children as it relates to Supply and Demand https://youtu.be/CHtUW8CKwdg
Quite clear, thank you, Rmrf!
  • #8,754
  • Sep 20, 2017 11:30am Sep 20, 2017 11:30am
Quoting rmrf
{quote} means fresh levels = parents, the children are the intermediate levels along the way where smaller zones form, ultimately price reacts most wildly at the parent zones here is a short youtube of someone talking about parent and children as it relates to Supply and Demand https://youtu.be/CHtUW8CKwdg
Hello rmrf,
Nice video! However, after watching it, I believe the author of the video meant to say this:

Parents = ORIGINAL level, a level that is created out of nowhere, big institutions just decide to pump big money into the market at a particular price point.

Child = a level created as a reaction to a previous level.

So Parent/Child concept deal with how a level is created.

Freshness is to do with whether a level has been tested or not.

You can have both fresh/unfresh parents and children.

Thanks
T
  • #8,755
  • Sep 20, 2017 11:55am Sep 20, 2017 11:55am
hello panoramia,

i really like your post very much and i read it every day , i have a lot to say but my English is bad,so thank you .

i want to ask you about my drawing

is this right drawing or number 2 is Separated zone ??

and thank you for your time .
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  • #8,756
  • Sep 20, 2017 12:29pm Sep 20, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting abdoroot
hello panoramia, i really like your post very much and i read it every day , i have a lot to say but my English is bad,so thank you . i want to ask you about my drawing is this right drawing or number 2 is Separated zone ?? and thank you for your time . {image}
Hi abdoroot, can you annotate where your number 2 is on your chart?

For Alfonso, there are only two ways to create a supply/demand zone:

1) A supply is created AFTER breaking a demand, and a demand is created AFTER breaking a supply.

2) A supply is created AFTER breaking an ascending TL, and a demand is created AFTER breaking a descending TL.

Without looking further to the left, it is not possible to tell whether your grey rectangle is a supply or not. And even if it is, it has been broken.
  • #8,757
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:11pm Sep 20, 2017 4:11pm
Quoting abdoroot
hello panoramia, i really like your post very much and i read it every day , i have a lot to say but my English is bad,so thank you . i want to ask you about my drawing is this right drawing or number 2 is Separated zone ?? and thank you for your time . {image}
I don't know where zone number 2 is located, you must be more specific please.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,758
  • Sep 21, 2017 4:10am Sep 21, 2017 4:10am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I don't know where zone number 2 is located, you must be more specific please. Alfonso
i specific it by drawing
thanks again.
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  • #8,759
  • Sep 21, 2017 10:46am Sep 21, 2017 10:46am
Quoting Tibetian
{quote} Hi abdoroot, can you annotate where your number 2 is on your chart? For Alfonso, there are only two ways to create a supply/demand zone: 1) A supply is created AFTER breaking a demand, and a demand is created AFTER breaking a supply. 2) A supply is created AFTER breaking an ascending TL, and a demand is created AFTER breaking a descending TL. Without looking further to the left, it is not possible to tell whether your grey rectangle is a supply or not. And even if it is, it has been broken.
hello Tibetian,
thanks for replay.

you main my supply my be not original ?

and when you consider the zone is broken ?
if 1 pip you consider it broken ?
  • #8,760
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:05pm Sep 21, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting abdoroot
{quote} hello Tibetian, thanks for replay. you main my supply my be not original ? and when you consider the zone is broken ? if 1 pip you consider it broken ?
According to the teaching on THIS THREAD, so I mean Alfonso's rules, yes, 1 pip over shot is considered broken!

As I have said previously, I don't know if what you drew there is a supply unless you show me the chart to the left.

I have explained the rules that you need to follow when you draw supply and demand zones. What more can I say?
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