Key To Markets - Support

Weekly preview: Central banks in focus.

1. Minutes of September 2017 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board, 19 September 2017, 11.30 am AEST.
2. FOMC meeting and quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, September 21.
3. Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy, September 21.

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EURUSD: Support base rose to 1.1820 from 1.1660.

1. A footprint above 1.20 needed to visit the near term supply zone.
2. Further headroom available until holds 1.1660.
3. Unwind of the balance sheet is well priced

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EURGBP: Near-term consolidation remains between 0.8650-0.9000.

1. Finally, pause near 200DEMA
2. Support zone remains between 0.8755-0.8740
3. Further gains expected if propel above 0.8900

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Brent: Rally likely to pause at the upper end of the rising channel

1. Spotted with a triple top
2. Parallel resistance seems at 56.50
3. Earlier double top seems at 57.30

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USDJPY: The trading bias is bullish.

1. Settles above 250MA
2. Given an upside breakout through the neckline and trend line as well
3. Resistance seems between 111.80 and 112.40

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NZDUSD: General election risk

1. NZ’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.6$ billion.
2. The primary risk to NZD is general election will be held on Saturday 23 September 2017.
3. Supply zone remains between 0.7345-0.7420

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JPY crosses technical overview.

1. AUDJPY and CADJPY gave an inverse H&S pattern breakout
2. We remain bullish on JPY crosses especially against AUD,CAD,EUR and GBP to the Japan election.
3. Summary of banks BOJ preview.

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EURUSD: Buying setup to German election.

1. EURSUD spotted with a bearish engulf candle.
2. Breach the ascending wedge pattern
3. Closed below 20DMA, focus to 50MA.
4. 24 September 2017 German election.

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AUDUSD: Friday’s pivotal 0.7870-0.7840

1. AUDUSD trading below 20 and 50MA
2. Psychological support finds at 0.7900 below this 0.7870
3. A deep cut expected if 0.7800 taken out

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Southern ride for Aussie.

1. Aussie dollar sharply reverses the direction to the South
2. No automatic implications weigh the AUD heavily
3. AUDUSD: We are watching 0.7860

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AUDNZD: We are watching 50.0 and 61.8% fib reactions.

1. AUDNZD lost 20 and 50 DMA
2. Parallel support 1.0820.
3. Fib reactions: 1.0750 and 1.0670

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GBPUSD: Near-term downside risk available

1. Pound plunges on Theresa Brexit speech, closed at 1.3494 on Friday
2. Last week’s GBPUSD price action paused the four-week rally
3. Near-term trading range remains between 1.3450-1.3600

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NZDUSD: Filled the election gap down. RBNZ in focus.

1. Our main focus in Asia FX over the week ahead will be the RBNZ.
2. Barclays, ASB , ANZ and Kiwi bank forecast “OCR on hold” in September RBNZ meeting.
3. Focus at 50.0%-61.8% (0.7557-0.7143 fall)

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EURNZD: Bullish pattern visible

1. Spotted with an inverse H&s pattern
2. Shoulders find between 1.6270 and 1.6245.

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EURUSD: Corrective pullback confirms a bearish pattern

1. Retrace to the lower end of the consolidation range
2. Neckline finds between 1.1820-1.1840.
3. EUR crosses (EURJPY, EURCHF and EURNZD) are offering better risk-reward ratio.

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EURGBP: A lower high (daily) pattern needed to retrace further to 0.8400

1. Remain in a consolidation phase
2. Floating above 200MAs
3. Retraced beyond 50.0%

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BRENT: The next level in focus is 59.70/60-61.0$

1. The higher low pattern 100.0fe seems at 59.70
2. The daily RSI at overbought but the oscillator remains bullish.
3. The daily RSI breakout needed to forecast further bullish reaction

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FX insights. USDCAD in focus.

1. USDHUF and USDSEK gave an upside breakout.
2. USDCHF, USDMXN, USDNOK, and USDZAR on a verge of a trendline breakout.
3. CAD and NZD crosses in focus

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USDJPY: Resistance zone at 113-113.30

1. Abe calls snap election
2. FX markets are pricing opinion polls
3. Resistance seems at 113.00 it’s 100.FE

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CADJPY: Parallel resistance at 91.75

1. The daily RSI indicating a negative divergence.
2. A daily close below 89.70 could expect a healthy correction

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