Alien's Extraterrestrial Visual Systems | Page 920 | Forex Factory

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Alien's Extraterrestrial Visual Systems

  • #18,381
  • Sep 15, 2017 2:21am Sep 15, 2017 2:21am
It is interesting how this system speaks about Grade A trades, yet their chances of them working out are slim at the best.

This is the way I see it. I read the whole entire thread about 7x, explored all of the concepts and I do not find them anything else, but a coincidence. I have a trade where H4 is developing a DS, all stos pointing down, Rsioma lvl 20,+ Full adx. H1 all stos pointing down, full ADX, Rsioma crossed the 50 line, M15, Rsioma lvl 20, all stos pointed down, full ADX and the same on M5 and M1. I wait until the Rsioma on M1 retraces, fails and slams down. I enter the position when the next expansion happens. Based on a good amount of trades I have taken with this system, the result is that around 50-70 % the PA retraced completely to melt me. As a matter of fact, the system told me to sell the bottom 50-70 % of the PA; however, when I did exactly contrary to the system´s indication, the winrate improved by a huge margin.

Can anybody help me out here? Its a possibility I am doing it wrong, but I am helpless at this point. I have read the thread many times over and over and I am a firm believer that I understand all the concepts outlined on a good level.
  • #18,382
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:44am Sep 15, 2017 4:44am
hi friends jpy down today i catch this move earn more than 250 pips here is my trades
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  • #18,383
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:53am Sep 15, 2017 4:53am
Quoting ayan
hi friends jpy down today i catch this move earn more than 250 pips here is my trades {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
I entered NZDJPY too. And I’m still in.
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #18,384
  • Sep 15, 2017 5:40am Sep 15, 2017 5:40am
Quoting JoeeF
{quote} I entered NZDJPY too. And I’m still in. {image}
You have a nice DS on H4.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,385
  • Sep 15, 2017 6:04am Sep 15, 2017 6:04am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} You have a nice DS on H4.
Maybe it will start trending on H4 too.
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #18,386
  • Sep 15, 2017 6:18am Sep 15, 2017 6:18am
Could anybody help me?
  • #18,387
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:07am Sep 15, 2017 9:07am
Quoting Blackmageee
Could anybody help me?

I think you answear your own question if you get a good win rate by just do the oposite of what the strategi tells you, then that is good and you can trade that way ?

Best regards
  • #18,388
  • Edited 9:48am Sep 15, 2017 9:18am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} I think you answear your own question if you get a good win rate by just do the oposite of what the strategi tells you, then that is good and you can trade that way ? Best regards
Yes, but why is it so? I want to achieve Alien´s 95 % accuracy. When I do the opposite, it still feels like a coin toss. I feel like I´ve had met all the "triggers" for a trade and yet it still somehow doesnt work out
  • #18,389
  • Sep 15, 2017 10:22am Sep 15, 2017 10:22am
Quoting Blackmageee
{quote} Yes, but why is it so? I want to achieve Alien´s 95 % accuracy. When I do the opposite, it still feels like a coin toss. I feel like I´ve had met all the "triggers" for a trade and yet it still somehow doesnt work out
Hi, I have just one suggestion for you: keep posting your charts here and your entries for comments from other Alien's fellow.
It helped many.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,390
  • Edited 11:34am Sep 15, 2017 11:12am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} Hi, I have just one suggestion for you: keep posting your charts here and your entries for comments from other Alien's fellow. It helped many.
Here it is: The red markers are the location where I entered cca. Please, do keep in mind that the H4 BBS didnt appear until the candle closed. As you can see, I was trying to hop back onto the bearish trend on the USDCAD, patiently waiting for the M1, M5,M15,H1 stos align and top, then wait for the ADX expansion, wait until RSIOMAS are all heading down and every Rsioma is in the 20 lvl besides the M1 which I wanted to enter when it was topping. We can even see the H1 stos topping with a magnificient divergence to it! The H1 divergence is not visible in the screen since it was not able to fit in, but there is a divergence with a double top in place as well.

I dont understand what was missing. Every "trigger" was in place: BBS, ADX expansion, Stos topping, H4 pointing down (therefore the direction of the trade), the H4 Rsioma even had a beautiful DS to it which was confirmed by the M1,M5,M15 + H1 TFs and yet somehow it all failed and I ended up selling almost the exact bottom. Please, could somebody point out my mistake here? Im desperate, I have encoutered MANY many many cases like these upon the journey and frankly, I have no idea what I am doing wrong.
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  • #18,391
  • Edited 12:06pm Sep 15, 2017 11:42am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting Blackmageee
{quote} Here it is: The red marker is the location where I entered cca. Please, do keep in mind that the H4 BBS didnt appear until the candle closed. As you can see, I was trying to hop back onto the bearish trend on the USDCAD, patiently waiting for the M1, M5,M15,H1 stos align and top, then wait for the ADX expansion, wait until RSIOMAS are all heading down and every Rsioma is in the 20 lvl besides the M1 which I wanted to enter when it was topping. We can even see the H1 stos topping with a magnificient divergence to it! The H1 divergence is...
Well, I don't see any mistake.
Maybe you can try some changes in your approach.
First of all create a MTF that goes from M5 to Daily.
Second to me look for a good alien setup on the higher TFs (Daily, H4) and than try to pinpoint your entry on 5M, 15M and H1.
Put a S and R indi or, if you like, leave the ICHI. and respect the levels.
The exit point is often the hardest point. When the ADX stop fanning in your direction or you detect a divergence is time to exit.
Use also your knowledge with price action and when you see a pinbar take into consideration a possible reversal.
Post more trades.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #18,392
  • Sep 15, 2017 12:22pm Sep 15, 2017 12:22pm
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} Well, I don't see any mistake. Maybe you can try some changes in your approach. First of all create a MTF that goes from M5 to Daily. Second to me look for a good alien setup on the higher TFs (Daily, H4) and than try to pinpoint your entry on 5M, 15M and H1. Put a S and R indi or, if you like, leave the ICHI. and respect the levels. The exit point is often the hardest point. When the ADX stop fanning in your direction or you detect a divergence is time to exit. Use also your knowledge with price action and when you see a pinbar take into...
But how can there be no mistake? Alien claimed to have this setup as the safest entry that can be. He also said he doesnt care about the particular levels. When you mention it, as a matter of fact, I took the trade right as the USDCAD was going south of the Pivot level and I was even reinforced by the divergence and the pivot that the top has been made. This was the grade A trade, everthing aligned ,everything popped up, got triggerred and unfolded YET it failed somehow. So I do have S/R indicator implemented on another template as well and I do respect these levels. The ADX was fanning throughout the whole trade. There HAS to be a mistake. This has happened to me a plethora of times. I took the setups from the daily as well. Take a look at the USDCAD daily chart, its a heavy short even with the ADX power turned on. On my trade the H4 stos topped(heavily reinforced by the H1 divergence double top), Rsioma went down, and the ADX 5 powers started fanning out. All of this was an indication that the daily will get another push lower and yet it failed.

This was a dream multiple Timeframe setup, everything you can wish for was in place. There has to be a mistake somewhere due to the failure.
  • #18,393
  • Sep 15, 2017 12:47pm Sep 15, 2017 12:47pm
Quoting Blackmageee
{quote} Here it is: The red markers are the location where I entered cca. Please, do keep in mind that the H4 BBS didnt appear until the candle closed. As you can see, I was trying to hop back onto the bearish trend on the USDCAD, patiently waiting for the M1, M5,M15,H1 stos align and top, then wait for the ADX expansion, wait until RSIOMAS are all heading down and every Rsioma is in the 20 lvl besides the M1 which I wanted to enter when it was topping. We can even see the H1 stos topping with a magnificient divergence to it! The H1 divergence is...

It looks like a decent setup, just lock some pips in so no matter what you dont loose a trade ....
Like JP said you can see a bit of divergence there on 1h, watching price going lower and the 8 stoch taking a turn higher.
Got to get out then...
  • #18,394
  • Sep 15, 2017 12:54pm Sep 15, 2017 12:54pm
Quoting Sparkoz
{quote} It looks like a decent setup, just lock some pips in so no matter what you dont loose a trade .... Like JP said you can see a bit of divergence there on 1h, watching price going lower and the 8 stoch taking a turn higher. Got to get out then...
The divergence there is microscopic or even so small that it probably isnt even a divergence. This is not about locking pips in. This is about why the trade failed when this WAS the 95 % safest Grade A trade with every trigger we have discussed here from the year this thread was started. It is not the first time this has happened to me.
  • #18,395
  • Sep 15, 2017 3:04pm Sep 15, 2017 3:04pm
Quoting Blackmageee
{quote} The divergence there is microscopic or even so small that it probably isnt even a divergence. This is not about locking pips in. This is about why the trade failed when this WAS the 95 % safest Grade A trade with every trigger we have discussed here from the year this thread was started. It is not the first time this has happened to me.
Your trade failed because you traded into reversals. Remember Alien always said be aware of key levels etc. See the charts I post below and follow my logic. Start from daily, H4, H1 etc. You will see that the long term trend were changing from shorts to longs. The idea is trade the small timeframe, 15 min from the long term i.e. confluence. Remember the waves. 15 mins will have more waves than 4h and daily. When you look at the H4 chart it shows that the downtrend was already exhausted. So if you trade the 15 min wave in same direction of the long term you will be successiful. I have to put a disclaimer as I am a serious newbie. My own thoughts.
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  • #18,396
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:03pm Sep 15, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting chararu
{quote} Your trade failed because you traded into reversals. Remember Alien always said be aware of key levels etc. See the charts I post below and follow my logic. Start from daily, H4, H1 etc. You will see that the long term trend were changing from shorts to longs. The idea is trade the small timeframe, 15 min from the long term i.e. confluence. Remember the waves. 15 mins will have more waves than 4h and daily. When you look at the H4 chart it shows that the downtrend was already exhausted. So if you trade the 15 min wave in same direction of...
With all due respect, I dont think this was it. Did I trade into a retracement? Yes, absolutely. Was the trend exhausted? Definetly not. Why do I say this? Because of the ADX power on every TF + there was no divergence(maybe the microscopic one, but cmon tbh). There WAS a divergence on the H1 double top so that would be a stronger indication where the price is not going right? Alien always liked to trade where the price was not going. Daily is a heavy short and H4 at the time of the trade was a heavy short as well

Basically, all the TFs were screaming short, short, short and the PA went long. It is a peculiar occurence, but I have to say, unfortunately, a frequent one.
  • #18,397
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:28pm Sep 15, 2017 4:28pm
That was an acceptable entry for a small move, which it did.

Otherwise it's clear Daily TF had found a bottom from which it is retracing.

The only fresh ADX expansion was on M5 ie small move.
  • #18,398
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:54pm Sep 15, 2017 4:54pm
To me, it's plain simple.
Daily had a beautiful DS short and then bullish divergence appeared at RSIOMA.
This time the H4 DS failed due to divergence on higher tf.
This H4 DS if worked could mean an override of divergence of daily tf = meaning that you could expect price come more down and then rest for a DS and see if this time the DS would fail.
This is my thinking mode:
Reversal divergence D1
H4 DS either fail or win
If fail = D1 divergence is in play
If win = D1 divergence may take longer to play or it is overridden.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,399
  • Sep 15, 2017 5:11pm Sep 15, 2017 5:11pm
GN is a perfect example of DS setups failing due to divergence of monthly tf.
Weekly and daily DS failed twice.
Work smarter,not harder
  • #18,400
  • Sep 15, 2017 5:13pm Sep 15, 2017 5:13pm
All right! Thank you guys. I will keep in mind the Daily timeframe, but it is still, indeed, a bit peculiar. Anyway, lets prepare for the next week so we know what opportunities lie ahead of us!
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