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Parabolic SAR Is Simple to Use & Quite Reliable

  • #21
  • Sep 12, 2017 7:53am Sep 12, 2017 7:53am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} There are multiple complaints to admin about redoktober, you are free to listen to who you wish of course it is really no skin off of my nose
Sob , sob ... yes, go to cry to Mod , poor dear..., poor bully...
PS : think about the complaints that FF members have sent about you , there are enough.
  • #22
  • Edited 8:33am Sep 12, 2017 7:59am | Edited 8:33am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} Things are usually erratic when you are trading by the minute. That's why investors, as opposed to day traders, focus on midterm and long term market trends. What PASR does is to aggregate all the ups and downs and give a moving average above which you buy and below which you sell. When you apply it to the monthly period, you may not even use the trailing stop loss because there are very few sudden catastrophic trend reversals.
and yet your losses continue grow, according to your TE anyway. Am i missing something?
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #23
  • Sep 12, 2017 8:58am Sep 12, 2017 8:58am
Quoting redoktober
{quote} Sob , sob ... yes, go to cry to Mod , poor dear..., poor bully... PS : think about the complaints that FF members have sent about you , there are enough.
I have confidence in the fair mindedness of the administrators.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #24
  • Sep 12, 2017 9:06am Sep 12, 2017 9:06am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} Did you see my FF explorer? What's is your annual returns rate? Few trading styles perform at that level and the average return for that industry is 6 - 7%. I welcome specific adjustments to the trading style, but not total abandpnment.
must agree with guys,
your TE (demo) is showing heavy losses.
even if past results arent based on this current enlightment, it still somewhat poor performance.
those industry 6-7% are for huge account, or very large the least. a mid size retail account can and should perform better, with still low drawdown. ( check my profile)

you also mentioned 300+ pips move to consider. that involves lots of overnight holding, swap most cases designed by the broker to cost you money, sometimes even both long and short swaps being negative.
so, you would need to carefully incorporate which pairs you can trade short or long only, thus not to lose your pants on the swap waiting.

finally, as many things, PSAR as well, looks better looking at historical data.
however, i am far from wanting to talk you out of your idea, if that suits you, and you happy with the returns, drawdowns, and all, by all means, go for it!
( just try on a smaller live account first, sometimes demo has ideal conditions vs real accounts)
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #25
  • Sep 12, 2017 9:07am Sep 12, 2017 9:07am
Quoting redoktober
{quote} Sob , sob ... yes, go to cry to Mod , poor dear..., poor bully... PS : think about the complaints that FF members have sent about you , there are enough.
Hey guys, let's get back to PSAR. How can it best be used for scalping?
Mecrandie
  • #26
  • Sep 12, 2017 9:16am Sep 12, 2017 9:16am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} Hey guys, let's get back to PSAR. How can it best be used for scalping?
for scalping?
wasnt you talking about long term before?

honestly, PSAR isnt something i can see to scalp with. ( and i do scalp)
a friend of mine some years back was some reason crazy about PSAR like you, did test it for weeks, live, with no good use but wasted time as result.
that doesnt mean you cant find success with it, but it was enough for me as conclusive then, and now.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #27
  • Sep 12, 2017 10:02am Sep 12, 2017 10:02am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} for scalping? wasnt you talking about long term before? honestly, PSAR isnt something i can see to scalp with. ( and i do scalp) a friend of mine some years back was some reason crazy about PSAR like you, did test it for weeks, live, with no good use but wasted time as result. that doesnt mean you cant find success with it, but it was enough for me as conclusive then, and now.
The scalping consideration is for GuyBaker and other scalpers.
Mecrandie
  • #28
  • Sep 12, 2017 10:07am Sep 12, 2017 10:07am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} Hey guys, let's get back to PSAR. How can it best be used for scalping?
Have you tested yet???

How hard is it to come up with a Psar system? Whatever it is break out, pull back, fading? How hard it might be to set few basic rules and the open 1m chart, presumably for scalping, and check theoretical entries and exist for 1 month of data?

What do you want from people? Somebody doing dirty job for you and handling you results on a plate?

Dont be lazy, put some effort..

So... have you tested your psar strategy?
  • #29
  • Sep 12, 2017 10:07am Sep 12, 2017 10:07am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} The scalping consideration is for GuyBaker and other scalpers.

I don't scalp, my systems are automated.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #30
  • Sep 12, 2017 10:08am Sep 12, 2017 10:08am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} The scalping consideration is for GuyBaker and other scalpers.
LOL, and what makes you think i am not a scalper, that you quickly want to discount me from consideration?
i must think that the 21 entries and exits ( as in scalp traders) are not qualifying then.
little sad to be excluded, but will then happily leave you for the ones you select to be included in this consideration.

only a little warning: trying to filter info to hear what you hope or want to hear, not necessarily will bring the best results for your trading!!
but good luck!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #31
  • Sep 12, 2017 12:08pm Sep 12, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} Have you tested yet??? How hard is it to come up with a Psar system? Whatever it is break out, pull back, fading? How hard it might be to set few basic rules and the open 1m chart, presumably for scalping, and check theoretical entries and exist for 1 month of data? What do you want from people? Somebody doing dirty job for you and handling you results on a plate? Dont be lazy, put some effort.. So... have you tested your psar strategy?
What you see on my FF Explorer is the result of applying PSSR only to the monthly period without stop loss protection. So with above 5% return you say.PSAR is reliable for long term market trending.
Mecrandie
  • #32
  • Sep 13, 2017 1:37am Sep 13, 2017 1:37am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} LOL, and what makes you think i am not a scalper, that you quickly want to discount me from consideration? i must think that the 21 entries and exits ( as in scalp traders) are not qualifying then. little sad to be excluded, but will then happily leave you for the ones you select to be included in this consideration. only a little warning: trying to filter info to hear what you hope or want to hear, not necessarily will bring the best results for your trading!! but good luck!
You are among the other scalpers. No exclusions intended.
Mecrandie
  • #33
  • Sep 13, 2017 1:48am Sep 13, 2017 1:48am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} What you see on my FF Explorer is the result of applying PSSR only to the monthly period without stop loss protection. So with above 5% return you say.PSAR is reliable for long term market trending.
You asked about scalping. I never seen anybody scalping on monthly charts

I cannot see any FF explorer, only one screenshot with a chart. It could be anything. 1 month or 1 minute. What does it prove?

Do you speculate psar on monthly chart? For that you need to test decades of data. DECADES, to have any relevance. If you did it for several year, your conclusions are irrelevant. In other words your dont have enough samples to prove any systematic advantage. It could be just a pure luck.

But I will give you a hint. Markets are fractals.

Soooo... technically your method should work as good on lower timeframes (weekly, daily, 8h, 4h, 1h etc) as on monthly chart.

Hence my question: have you TESTED your method with enough samples on lower timeframes to make any conclusions in general and have confidence applying it on monthly chart?

And btw, what is actually your method? I cannot see anything substantial except some talk about psar. Do you have a method, system, strategy at all? or we just talking about shape of clouds?
  • #34
  • Sep 13, 2017 1:50am Sep 13, 2017 1:50am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} Your explorer says -1645 pips.... You are welcome to check out my trading style and results here https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=698461
Even with that all time pip, I showed 5.4% average monthly return on investment, which is within industrial range of of 5% - 9%.
Mecrandie
  • #35
  • Sep 13, 2017 2:00am Sep 13, 2017 2:00am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} Even with that all time pip, I showed 5.4% average monthly return on investment, which is within industrial range of of 5% - 9%.
mind to clarify this?

cos your TE shows :
All Time -56.6% -$107,143 -5,906 3,102/3,084 349.06382

doesnt add up to your above monthly averages.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #36
  • Sep 13, 2017 2:59am Sep 13, 2017 2:59am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} mind to clarify this? cos your TE shows : All Time -56.6% -$107,143 -5,906 3,102/3,084 349.06382 doesnt add up to your above monthly averages.
Comparative returns are usually annual. Sorry about the monthly said earlier. You should know that returns are the aggregates of all the reds and blacks. Don't let those reds and blacks intimidate you.
Mecrandie
  • #37
  • Edited 7:22am Sep 13, 2017 6:07am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} You asked about scalping. I never seen anybody scalping on monthly charts I cannot see any FF explorer, only one screenshot with a chart. It could be anything. 1 month or 1 minute. What does it prove? Do you speculate psar on monthly chart? For that you need to test decades of data. DECADES, to have any relevance. If you did it for several year, your conclusions are irrelevant. In other words your dont have enough samples to prove any systematic advantage. It could be just a pure luck. But I will give you a hint. Markets are fractals....
My FF Explorer is at the bottom of every post. Just click on it to explore that data.

I am not a scalper. But I listen to ideas presented by scalpers in case other scalpers are interested in borrowing them. I do annual trading with portfolios of at least 20 forex pairs. I make sure my trades are continuosly looking in the correct market direction for twelve months at least.

For my long term trades I rely only on the monthly period and PSAR support line to avoid dancing around or using the trailing stop, which tends to close my trades prematurely. I use m5 correction pull back point for my market entry to make sure I am buying at low. If there is further correction I lock into the new low and close the previous trade until the trade stabilizes in the long direction.

It may cost me 100 to 300 pips to get here, but once it clicks in the right direction, it grows to thousands of pips before the monthly trend reverses. I am talking months and years. I refuse to close such multi thousand pips position just to prevent hundred pips correction pullbacks losses when PSAR support line is still looking north.

When the PSAR support line is up, I use it as a diving board for my short trades and stabilize my trades the opposite way from my long trades. Hopefully you can now see that there is a method to my investing (not trading).
Mecrandie
  • #38
  • Sep 13, 2017 7:50am Sep 13, 2017 7:50am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} My FF Explorer is at the bottom of every post.
Silly me, I did not notice your explorer in the signature.

None less, I cannot see long term trades there at all. In first few pages there are couple 3-4 weeks trades, but usually there are +/- 0.5% win/loss. Also you make a lot of trades per day. That looks to me like day trading, not long term speculation, or investing as you call. Your average holding time is 8 days.

Edit: correction, your longest holding time was 65 weeks, over 1 year, yet that gave you at best 0.8% profit.

I understand, that you might get short time frame entry and keep for long term, but clearly, if this is approach it does not work. Your explorer shows loss -55% all time and profit 3.7% so far this year (we already passed mid mark) - not much to show for 9 months of work, I could get that in a bank for doing exactly nothing.

So... would you agree that:

1. Your method, whatever you use, does not work

2. If you talk about long term speculation, whatever you use psar, moving average, trend lines, pivots - does not really matter. What matters is your understanding of fundamentals and politics to determine long term trend.

3. Psar alone is not reliable if you take it as a core method of entry and exits, which is opposite to what you claim in the title. I have tested that approach with a lot of data. It simply does not work just by itself. Show me tests pointing otherwise. Your trade explorer does not prove that.

Perhaps for long term speculation you are over-complicating thing? Just a question... Anyway, your time, your money.
  • #39
  • Edited 8:59am Sep 13, 2017 8:33am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} Silly me, I did not notice your explorer in the signature. None less, I cannot see long term trades there at all. In first few pages there are couple 3-4 weeks trades, but usually there are +/- 0.5% win/loss. Also you make a lot of trades per day. That looks to me like day trading, not long term speculation, or investing as you call. Your average holding time is 8 days. Edit: correction, your longest holding time was 65 weeks, over 1 year, yet that gave you at best 0.8% profit. I understand, that you might get short time frame entry and...
My Title says PSAR IS SIMLE AND RELIABLE
I don't rely on it for entry, just for exit. I use m5 downward or upward correction point to lock in a true high or low trade price. All the PSAR does is to tell me when the rally is syarting and when it is over. I strink the lot size during reversal periods and re-expanf once there is a clear direction. That technically how you stay long term with any pair. The 3.7 % return is the lowest for this year. This year"s high was 9% back in the first quarter. That give an average of 6.35%. If you are still interested in my method efficiency, you can check back in late December to see the full year performance. It was nice chatting with you.
Mecrandie
  • #40
  • Sep 13, 2017 9:24am Sep 13, 2017 9:24am
Quoting mecrandie
{quote} My Title says PSAR IS SIMLE AND RELIABLE
I allowed myself to look closer at your TE and extract some data.

Focusing on annual return:
1 Jan 2015 - 31 Dec 2015 = total return +0.2%, barely positive, in fact negative considering inflation
1 Jan 2016 - 31 Dec 2016 = total return -18.7.%, highly negative
1 Jan 2017 - up to now = total return +3.4.%, still counting, could go either way

Focusing on monthly return in 2017
January = -3.6%
February = -0.5%
March = -0.3%
April = +6.6%
May = -1.5%
June = +2.8%
July = +0.1%
August = +1.0%

Question no 1: Do you think your method can be considered reliable? It does not matter here if we are talking scalping, swing or long term speculating.

Question no. 2: Do you think you have enough data to make any conclusion for long term speculating? Long term as positions open for months if not years.
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